College Station, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Texas A&M is located in College Station, and is home to a very good meteorology school. One suspects that at least one of the forecasters in this competition will have a close connection with College Station.

AT 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 73 with clear skies. A jet streak aloft over east Texas was evident in some streaming cirrus over the region. Further to the south, a thatch of clouds over southern Texas represented return flow on the back end of surface high pressure. As the jet streak carries to the northeast, the Gulf will open further, with moisture allowed to trek north through the state.
A weak trough at the entrance of the jet streak is going to exacerbate the shower activity in south Texas, with rain bubbling up through much of the southern half of the Lone Star State. As this upper wave transitions away, and an upper ridge establishes over the center of the country, high pressure will recommit to the southeastern US. Flow into an area of low pressure developing in the High Plains will route north of College Station, and a warm, dry start to November is anticipated.
Tomorrow – Chance of evening showers, otherwise warm, High 73, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late.  High 75, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 80, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers High 73, Low 60
Wednesday – Pleasant with sun and areas of low clouds High 79, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. High 71, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59

Tomorrow, in a worst case scenario, might necessitate kids staying indoors and eating a whole lot of candy. Happy Halloween!

Columbia, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Columbia is the home of the University of Missouri, and like most of the population of Missouri, isn’t terribly far from St. Louis.

At 154PM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with fair skies. Low pressure moving through the northern Plains was inducing brisk southerly winds that were bringing temperatures up to unusually high levels, and introducing a little bit of moisture to the atmosphere. Columbia was on the cusp of drought, but is not presently under a red flag warning, even with the gusty winds.
The strong feature in the Plains is going to gain a tighter circulation and start moving north toward the Dakotas and Minnesota. The cold front, owing to the primarily northerly vector of the system, will be slow moving. The boundary will flare in Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow morning, and slowly traipse across Missouri before arriving in Columbia in the evening on Monday. The base of the trough will be fertile ground for more cyclonic development, and a wave will develop in the Red River Valley and move north, ensuring that after the rain and thunder start on Monday, it will persist, though likely with less thunder, through the early part of Tuesday, with colder temperatures following.
Tomorrow – Rain and thunder arriving late after another warm October day. High 74, Low 54
Tuesday – Rain through the afternoon, then clearing, High 54, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon. Thunder possible High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Periods of rain High 52, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, breezy and not as warm; a couple of afternoon showers and a heavy thunderstorm High 72, Low 55
Tuesday – Cloudy, breezy and cooler with heavy rain tapering off High 55, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 2pm High 73, Low 59
Tuesday – Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, showers in the afternoon, High 74, Low 56
Tuesday – Showers likely mainly in the morning, High 57, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 74, Low 63
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 56, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 79, Low 63
Tuesday – Rain throughout the day. High 67, Low 46

It is non-standard temperature season! What a rainy forecast for eastern Missouri. I wouldn’t be surprised to see several inches of rain in some parts of the state. The low is easily apparent up in Montana even this afternoon.

Pocatello, Idaho

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I saw that we are on the cusp of some changes to the pattern in the interior northwest. It is October, so perhaps you can guess what kind of changes those might be.

At 1153AM, MT, Pocatello was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 62. The clear skies were leading to chilly nights with the low dew points, but the sunshine meant temperatures were unbound in the afternoon, and record highs have been dotting the region of late. The low trough off the west coast in conjunction with the ridge has established what is known as a Rex Block, stifling flow in Idaho.
The western US is going to remain under this Rex Block until the weekend, and flow through the region will remain fairly stagnated. Expect some morning haze or smog, especially in the valleys, thanks to the lack of flow at the surface, but continued warm temperatures and sunny skies in the afternoon. Things will be quite a bit different this weekend, however.
Tomorrow – Sunny with haze, High 76, Low 35
Wednesday – Sunny, hazy in the morning, High 73, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 76, Low 36
Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 74, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 76, Low 34
Wednesday – Brilliant sunshine and warm with the temperature approaching the record of 78 set in 1950 High 75, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42
Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, areas of frost in the morning, High 72, Low 35
Wednesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 40
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 72, Low 37

Pretty different forecast lows, but consistent elsewhere. Makes sense when the satellite imagery looks like this. By the way, the change I hinted at in the intro is coming over the weekend. It’s going to get cold and snowy for a lot of the Northwest.

Brownsville, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Brownsville is part of a surprisingly well populated stretch in the far southern part of Texas, including Harlingen and McAllen. Brownsville is the furthest south, and closest to the Gulf of Mexico. It also happens to be significantly further from any town, excepting Harlingen and McAllen, than anyone really expects.

At 953AM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. A dry line was spread through central Texas, and while the Dallas area had dew points in the the 40s, it was already in the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. There was a threat for strong thunderstorms closer to Corpus Christi this afternoon, and some of those shower and thunderstorms flaring south towards Brownsville can’t be ruled out later today. Additionally, Tropical Storm Karl was churning away in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Warnings extended to Matamoros on the other side of the Rio Grande, but his presence only raised the threat for coastal thunderstorms this afternoon.
Karl is moving southward, expected to landfall near Coatzcoalcos on the Campeche coast, so the attention will be turned to the dry line to the north of Brownsville. Without the counterclockwise rotation from Karl, the dry line will lose it’s potency as well. The dry line dichotomy will linger through the period, but the threat for showers and storms will abate over deep south Texas. As Karl continues to waste away in Central America, Brownsville will be more stable than normal for a hot humid stretch, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures preparing to climb.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 89, Low 73
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 92, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Partly sunny and humid; breezy in the afternoon High 91, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, high 90, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 73
Saturday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 73

Its strange that the driest forecast is the coolest forecast. Strange. Karl is showing up dramatically on the Gulf satellite imagery.

Fayetteville, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are two options for Fayettevilles in the United States. I’ve only been to the one in Arkansas, and it is definitely not what you expect in “Arkansas” given the haven of Fortune 500 companies, University and tourism. What kind of weather is coming their way?

At 853PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. It was a continuation of dry weather, and there were burn bans across most of the region. The Ozarks were seeing cooler temperatures than surrounding regions, owing to the terrain of northwest Arkansas.
Surface high pressure is dropping southward within a complicated jet trough. The nature of the troughing pattern is such that precipitation is being inhibited and moisture is being staunched at the Gulf. This will lead to more quiet weather tomorrow, however as the surface ridge sinks south, baroclinicity will arrive across the region, importing some moisture from the monsoon. This isn’t going to lead to a lot of wet weather, but some rain and clouds are possible overnight Monday into Tuesday. Expect a breezier day on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with some late rain, High 79, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, with some early showers, High 79, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. (PM storms), High 78, Low 53
Tuesday – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 81, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy High 77, Low 54
Tuesday – Beautiful with periods of clouds and sun High 79, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 54
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 77, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. High 80, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with isolated storms, High 80, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 78, Low 56
Tuesday – Possible light rain in the morning. High 79, Low 60

It’s fun when there is a variety to the precipitation forecasts. We’ll see how it plays out! Not much on satellite right now, but it will likely change in the next 48 hours.

Santa Rosa, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I spent quite a bit of time tweeting @Vic_WX as Hurricane Ian made landfall near Punta Gorda and Fort Myers, Florida. I suggest a follow for discussion on live and breaking news stories like Ian.

Our forecast today will be in the North Bay. Perhaps even further north than just the North Bay, deeper into Wine Country. It’s a gorgeous part of the weather when the temperatures are cooperative. It could go either way in September!

At 153PM, PT, Santa Rosa was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 81 degrees. A trough was dipping into the northern Rockies, riding on the eastern flank of a coastal ridge. Pleasant conditions were found throughout the coast, with an onshore flow keeping temperatures manageable.
Through the forecast period, the low in the northern Rockies will become orphaned from a north riding jet, while the weak ridge at the coast will continue to provide a northwesterly flow. Sunshine will continue, and so to will fairly pleasant, even cooler temperatures.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 51
Saturday – Remaining sunny, but with scattered clouds, High 82, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 79, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 55
Saturday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Saturday – Partly Cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 75, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 55
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 76, Low 52

The satellite shows an almost entirely clear California, save for a little cumulus over the far southern part of the state. Not bad!

New Orleans, Louisiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve had quiet tropics, and the southern US is looking at more quiet weather this week, but even now, more than a week out and with nothing fully developed, the eyes of Louisiana are on the Venezuelan coast, where a tropical feature may develop and threaten the Gulf Coast. What before then? That’s where we come in.

At 856PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 86 degrees. The satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico was a little bit murkier than the model analysis, which indicated the tail of a cold front over the northern Gulf, extending from Hurricane Fiona, bearing down on Nova Scotia.
As Fiona presses into the Canadian Maritimes, the attendant boundary will diminish. Low pressure in the Great Lakes will produce a cool front through the Ozarks, advancing southward. Though not expected to be terribly robust, it will be enough to induce an onshore flow, and a return of some clouds and spotty rain showers around New Orleans by Sunday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly sunny, late showers and storms in the area, High 91, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 77
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 92, Low 76
Sunday – Humid with clouds and breaks of sun High 91, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 76
Sunday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 75

Pretty consistent numbers across the board, thanks toa fairly quiet pattern, for the time being. The storm near Venezuela was named Ian while I was writing this post. For the moment, he looks like he will curl into the Gulf Coast of Florida, but the most recent GFS has a bit more northerly track than the consensus. It’s all still pretty variable for now. Here is the currently tranquil satellite imagery..

Idaho Falls, Idaho

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve been dabbling out in the Great Lakes or southeast for so long, it seems about time to hone our skills out west.

At 953PM, MT, Idaho Falls was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 59 degrees. The western US was within a strong upper level trough, which was tiered and producing two separate surface features. A weak low and cold front lay over Canada, and at the base of the deeper trough, a low spun off the California coast. Idaho Falls sat between the two features, and was a position of calm. The trough was squashing monsoonal moisture to the osuth.
The low off the California coast will be the one to follow, as it will track along the existing jet structure. It will take until the afternoon on Wednesday, but it will arrive in eastern Idaho, pulling monsoonal moisture back northward. Rain and some isolated thunderstorms are expected in the evening in Idaho Falls, along with a few blustery gusts.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 46
Wednesday – Showers in the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. High 78, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time. High 84, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly cloudy in the morning. Thunderstorms developing later in the day High 79, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warm with the temperature breaking the record of 83 set in 1966 High 84, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 77, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 47
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly sunny with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 76, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 78, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 81, Low 50
Wednesday – Rain in the evening. High 72, Low 54

There is a big difference between the west and east of the Rockies. When amid a trough out west you can still get record highs. Let’s get the local perspective from KIFI in Idaho Falls

Gadsden, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s just a northern Alabama kind of day here at Victoria-Weather. Real question is whether we have learned any lessons since last go around.

At 356PM, ET, Gadsden was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 82 degrees. A stalled boundary over the Gulf of Mexico was filtering out a lot of the otherwise typical heat and humidity, and high pressure entrenched in the region was backed by a pleasant air mass.
The prevailing flow will remain northwesterly, which should keep Gadsden relatively pleasant through the beginning of the week. A small perturbation will develop in the Bight of Georgia over the weekend, and stir up showers and storms, but this will additionally serve to staunch humidity in eastern Alabama for the weekend. This perturbation looks significantly less than it did in earlier runs, as it will likely be unraveled by what will then be Hurricane Fiona off the coast. This could lead to more clouds than expected in Gadsden, though it should stay dry.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 58
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time. High 87, Low 61
Sunday – A few clouds from time to time. High 87, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; a beautiful start to the weekend High 86, Low 58
Sunday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 87, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 60
Sunday – Sunny, High 88, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85 Low 60
Sunday – Sunny, High 86, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 58
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 86. Low 61
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. high 86, Low 61

A lot of of popcorn cumulus across the region, but that’s what you get in the south. The real show is further southeast, and even then, it’s not very interesting programming.

Battle Creek, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

One of our most recent forecasts was for Battle Creek, but that doesn’t mean we’ve forecast for Battle Creek recently. Vacation, woo! Back on the horse in Kellogg’s Country.

At 953AM, ET, Battle Creek was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with overcast skies. Tightly wound low pressure was centered northwest of Manitowoc, Wisconsin, and moisture and clouds blanketed the Great Lakes. Rain showers were for the moment avoiding Battle Creek, though some light activity south of South Bend was on it’s way. Shower activity were retrograding across northern Michigan, indicative of how slowly this disturbance was moving.
The upper trough birthing this surface low is phased with the primary jet stream, found over Hudson Bay. Even though the feature is moving slowly at present, it has motivation to progress to the east, by way of the upper trough. The rain in the area is likely to abate today, with the overcast hanging on through tomorrow, but by Wednesday, clearer, drier air is on it’s way, expected to put a pause on autumn for the time being.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, and a little bit warmer, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Clearing and warmer, High 77, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower.High 72, Low 51
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 78, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower in places High 72, Low 55
Wednesday – Sunny much of the time and nice High 78, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a slight chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Sunny High 78, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers, High 70, Low 51
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 73, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 78, Low 52

Not exactly the most pleasant scenario, but it could be worse. Battle Creek has avoided the copious rains that this system brought to Chicagoland. Here is a deeper dive from Wood TV’s Matt Kirkwood.