Florence, South Carolina

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We’re going to sneak down to the Carolinas on the heels of a very active weather day for the southeastern US.

At 906PM, ET, Florence was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with scattered clouds. A line of thunderstorms swept through earlier, with 63kt gusts reported at Florence. Winds have died down, but with a few post frontal sprinkles over South Carolina, Florence stands to get a little bit more rain before all is said and done. The jet structure is still very active, which will only encourage the area of low pressure to drift to the northeast, bringing the threat for rain to an end overnight tonight.
The next round of low pressure is going to get organized in the south central US by Friday evening, which will also indicate the point at which warmer air will start returning to Florence. Dry conditions are expected in Florence from sunrise tomorrow through the day on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Some clouds early, then sunny, High 53, Low 38
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 53, Low 38
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 59, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, windy and cooler High 53, Low 39
Thursday – Milder with plenty of sun High 61, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 52, Low 40
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 51, Low 41
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 48
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 34

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 39
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 36

There was quite a bit of severe weather in the southern and southeastern US over the last 48 hours. The strongest and most intense storms were overnight in the Florida Panhandle, but now we are near a break.

Logan, Utah

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re going to head to northern Utah, away from the real weather of the week, because that simply how we operate here at Victoria-Weather. Constantly missing the point.

At 851 PM, MT, Logan was reporting light snow and a temperature of 22 degrees. As the well advertised storm system begins to emerge in the southern High Plains, some of the same energy is bringing snow to the Wasatch Range. The sharp, strong trough that is the culprit behind the weather this week will transition out of the inter-mountain west by midday tomorrow, leaving the potential for some more flurries to continue into tomorrow morning in Logan.
The rest of the day and early Monday look as though they will continue to be tranquil thorough the early part of the day on Tuesday as well. The next upper level wave in the jet structure is rippling through the Gulf of Alaska, preparing to bring more wet weather to the Pacific Northwest. The storm system will press moisture beyond the Cascades and as far as northern Utah by Tuesday evening. It’s going to remain chilly in Logan, so precipitation is going to fall as snow, and will predominantly fall in higher terrain.
Tomorrow – A lingering flurry early, then increasingly sunny, High 25, Low 13
Tuesday – Sunny early, clouds and snow return late, High 27, Low 16

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 25, Low 10
Tuesday – Cloudy with snow showers becoming a steady accumulating snow later on. High 30, Low 14

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 22, Low 9
Tuesday – Cloudy with a little snow High 30, Low 12

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 24, Low 9
Tuesday – Snow, mainly after 11am. High 29, Low 11

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny (Early snow) High 17, Low 13
Tuesday – Breezy. Snow likely in the morning then snow in the afternoon. High 23, Low 13

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 24, Low 13
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 30, Low 11

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 24, Low 12
Tuesday – Blowing snow, High 32, Low 15

I’ll tell you what, these mountain forecasts sure get a lot of different forecasts. It doesn’t help that Utah doesn’t ever have an over head satellite image. You can see most of the snow is over the mountains.

New York, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Heading for the Big Apple for our first forecast of 2024. Absolutely no pressure, right?

At 151PM, ET, Central Park was reporting cloudy skies with a brisk northwest wind and a temperature of 44 degrees. Temperatures across the region were in the mid-40s with the northwest wind, as the area found itself between a large north Atlantic storm and a weaker system in New England. A line of showers extending from Concord, New Hampshire to White Plains was going to pass through the City in the next couple of hours, but given the presence of the offshore feature, not much rain is anticipated.
High pressure will follow the messy system into town, giving the New York area a day to prepare for the first strong winter storm seen in a couple of years. Strong low pressure is going to start organizing in west Texas overnight tonight, and begin sweeping through the Gulf Coast by morning. Saturday morning, the feature will be a formidable system centered over Mobile Bay, getting ready to press north. Meanwhile, a Clipper in the Upper Midwest will be moving eastward, supplying cold air for the pending storm. Precipitation will move in around nightfall. While snow will be persistent in New Jersey, Downstate New York and Connecticut, it will struggle to accumulate initially on Long Island, Staten Island and Manhattan. There could be an inch or two in some parts of the Bronx before Sunday rolls around. Warm air will intrude on Sunday and wash away any snow that does accumulate, but in the evening, things will get more interesting, and accumulating snow is possible even in Manhattan.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 26
Saturday – Clouds increase, with rain and some flakes mixed in late, High 38, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 40, Low 28
Saturday – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. High 39, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 39, Low 27
Saturday – Rather cloudy; snow and deteriorating travel conditions at night High 40, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 38, Low 28
Saturday – A chance of snow after 2pm, mixing with rain after 5pm. Cloudy, High 40, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 35, Low 26
Saturday – Cloudy. Rain and snow likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation, High 36, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 37, Low 29
Saturday – Partly cloudy with a wintry mix likely, High 41, Low 32

CLI: tomorrow – Sunny, High 39, Low 27
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 37, Low 30

Well, that was a lot. I think the real chance for accumulation will be just outside of the city, and after our forecast period expires, but I can’t well leave it out, right? Here is the rain headed for NYC right now.

New

Kansas City, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Kansas City’s larger portion is on the Missouri side of the river, but many of the large suburbs exist on the Kansas side. None of this really helps with our forecast, or dictates a different climate between the towns.

At 253PM, CT, Kansas city was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 49 degrees. West-northwest winds were blustery and bringing temperatures down a bit, but without the clouds that are being seen further to the north, it’s still a quite bearable end to the year.
The clouds and whatnot seen in the Great Lakes is a western lobe of a broader trough on the east coast. The cooler air mass is going to continue sinking further south, even without a particular threat for precipitation. This will drive an inactive cold front through Kansas City overnight, leading to a cooler day tomorrow before a stout, clear area of high pressure moves into the middle of the country.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 36, Low 25
New Years Day – Sunny, High 37, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 39, Low 28
New Years Day – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 40, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Colder with times of clouds and sun High 37, Low 29
New Years Day – Mostly sunny High 41, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny,  High 36, Low 28
New Years Day – Sunny, High 37, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 35, Low 29
New Years Day – Sunny, High 36, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 37, Low 28
New Years Day – Mostly Sunny, High 37, Low 25

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 37, Low 27
New Years Day – Sunny, High 50, Low 25

Those lows in the V-W forecast are a bit lower because we used the information out of the Kansas City airport, which is well outside the city center. Check out the forecast for KCTV-5. There is a distinct focus on the Chiefs football game this weekend.

Macon, Georgia

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Macon is right in the heart of Georgia, and the home of Mercer University. I hope either of these facts might help you with Jeopardy! some day.

At 353PM, ET, Macon was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with fair skies. Winds were from the northwest, and there was a brisk flow aloft thanks to occluded low pressure over the center of the country. The primary round of wet weather has already proceeded offshore, however the cold air still remains nearer the Mississippi Valley. This postfrontal trough will not reconstitute as a cold front, however, and shouldn’t bring any rain to central Georgia.
The jet structure is robust, as it should be this time of year, and is guiding the low pressure center that brought the rain to town northeastward, and will not allow time for the secondary boundary to organize any precipitable activity. Even so, expect temperatures to continue to drop over the next couple of days, with a chilly Friday on the horizon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 41
Friday – Cloudy and cooler, High 49, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 61, Low 44
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 52, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 61, Low 45
Friday – Cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 52, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny high 60, Low 44
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 57, Low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 44
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 51, Low 33

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 61, Low 39
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 53, Low 34

A look at the satellite imagery shows some clearer skies rolling into Georgia, behind a very sharp air mass demarcation through Alabama.

Huntsville, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s time to put together a forecast in this very warm December. We’re far enough south already that it’s not a concern usually, but I’m not worried about putting snow in the forecast. Will there be storms?

At 1053PM, CT, Huntsville was reporting overcast skies with a breezy northwest wind and a temperature of 44. The clouds are working to arrest a brief cool down as a narrow trough swings through the Great Lakes behind the strong system crashing through the mid-Atlantic. Satellite shows that Huntsville is under the last swatch of overcast, and cooler temperatures should come through by daybreak tomorrow.
Cooler temperatures are going to be short lived. High pressure and flow from the southwest will work to bring the warmth back to town. The ridge will take more than the next two days to sneak back out of town, so unseasonable warmth can be expected. Clearer skies overnight will provide a cooler start on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 35
Tuesday – Clear and a tad cooler, High 48, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 51, Low 35
Tuesday – Sunny skies. High 45, Low 22

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy; breezy this afternoon High 53, Low 36
Tuesday – Plenty of sunshine, but chilly High 45, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 52, Low 34
Tuesday – Sunny, High 44, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy. Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 53, Low 38
Tuesday – Sunny, High 46, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 37
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 45, Low 24

CLI: Tomorrow – Clear, High 50, Low 27
Tuesday – Sunny, High 41, Low 21

Looks terrific for Huntsville, but a pretty reasonable cool down on Tuesday. The satellite shows that last wisp of clouds in north Alabama.

Flagstaff, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Northern Arizona has weather that is more akin to the Rockies, which makes it a more palatable destination for people visiting the Grand Canyon. Flagstaff is a lot more palatable than some people think when they hear “Arizona”. It would be a real shock to hit 110 in Flagstaff.

At 157PM, PT, Flagstaff was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with clear skies. An upper level trough was tailed east to west from the central Plains towards the Great Basin. Unlike tilted troughs normally behave, this will shove off to the east overnight, with high pressure building into the western US.
The high pressure in the region will allow temperatures to warm up a bit. The subtropical jet will still run through northern Mexico, so summer like temperatures are not going to return to Arizona, with only a few fair clouds for Flagstaff.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 42, Low 19
Tuesday – Fair skies, High 48, Low 18

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. High 42, Low 19
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 47, Low 19

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and chilly High 41, Low 21
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 47, Low 17

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 43, Low 16
Tuesday – Sunny, High 47, Low 16

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 40, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 46, Low 21

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 43, Low 17
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 18

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 40, Low 20
Tuesday – Sunny, High 45, Low 20

Some diversity to the temperature forecasts, which is nice, and makes sense. Like I said, northern Arizona is very much like the Rockies, which are mercurial at their best. Satellite shows some streaming clouds in southern Arizona, and more congested clouds north of the border.

Monroe, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Saturday, everyone. Let’s see if the weather will keep everyone happy to begin the weekend.

At 415PM, ET, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 49 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure in eastern Canada has recently dragged a cool front through town, which will bring cooler but still pleasant weather through the weekend.
A deep trough of the mid-latitude jet is going to traverse the desert Southwest and begin the development of a surface trough that will organize over the Red River Valley. By Monday evening, the system will move to the northeast, approaching the Lower Ohio Valley. The leading edge of rain will arrive after sunset on Monday night, to begin a pretty wet middle of the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 49, Low 29
Monday – Increasing clouds with rain late, High 45, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 51, Low 30
Monday – Cloudy. Late Rain, High 45, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 50, Low 33
Monday – Sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon (late rain) High 46, Low 35

NWS: Sunny, High 49, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46. Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 31
Monday – Cloudy (Late rain) High 45, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46, Low 30

CLI: Tomorrow – sunny, High 48, Low 32
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46, Low 34

Some difference of opinion on whether there will actually be rain on Monday evening. Looks pretty likely to me. Not now, though. Pretty quiet now.

Logan, Utah

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Winter is fast approaching, which is great news for members of the skiing and snowboarding community. The Wasatch are certainly poplar spots for that winter weather activity, but are we there yet?

At 951PM, MT, Logan was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with clear skies and a light northwest wind behind a weak cool front that passed by earlier this morning. Clear skies prevailed across the Beehive State, with a ridge of high pressure nosing into the area from the west.
The jet structure is going to bubble around the Intermountain West, with a southern jet beginning to trough and engender some development in the Mexican Desert, while a ridge will only strengthen in the northern Plains. This will lead to some sustained stability, and late season warmth in Logan.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 23
Sunday – Sunny, High 55, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 51, Low 26
Sunday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 56, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 49, Low 24
Sunday – Brilliant sunshine High 55, Low 21

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 51, Low 26
Sunday – Sunny High 57, Low 29

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 29
Sunday – Sunny, High 48, Low 32

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 27
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 57, Low 27

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 50, Low 25
Sunday – Partly Cloudy, High 54, Low 25

All right, here is my guess: The top three outlets and Clime updated their forecasts with the new model guidance already, and the NWS just hasn’t. Guidance clearly is showing a chilly Sunday morning, and it’s already busted on the warm side, so trending colder makes more sense. With this confusion, let’s check with a local perspective, from KSL in Salt Lake City.

Sherman, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our forecast takes us to the Red River Valley, northeast of the MetroPlex. The Thanksgiving Holiday is soon approaching, so I have to believe more of us are looking at the weather in even more places.

At 250pm, CT, Sherman was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with clear skies. While there was a weak jet streak bringing high clouds to central Texas, the strongest flow aloft was well to the north. There was a strong wave of low pressure preparing to develop in the northern High Plains, which will act t draw flow from the south.
The strong jet to the north will usher the surface feature along while forming into a long waved, low amplitude ridge. This will provide stability to the region, and lead to some warmer air and sunny skies.
Tomorrow – Breezy partly cloudy, High 82, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunny, High 85, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky, High 82, Low 61
Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky. High 82, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and very warm; great day to be outside High 82, Low 61
Tuesday – Breezy and very warm with plenty of sunshine; dry weather for getting out to vote High 83, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 62
Tuesday – Sunny, High 79, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 62

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 60
Tuesday – Sunny High 84, Low 62

A look at the satellite shows that jet streak I mentioned earlier. A look at Accuweather’s forecast shows a bit of editorial commentary suggesting that they had too much free time for this forecast.