Chalk one up for the Front Range. Fort Collins’ forecast didn’t quite go as anticipated. Most notably, after a cold front moved through Friday into Saturday, temperatures… climbed into the low 80s. Then, the day when westerly flow arrived with the next feature (Sunday) the expected warm downslope flow was actually cool. Temperatures dropped nearly 10 degrees. Weatherbug was 10 degrees off on their high temperature on Saturday. They missed out on first place by 1 degree. Does that paint the picture for you? The Weather Channel and Accuweather converged at the top. Actuals: Saturday: .01″ of rain, High 82, Low 64 Sunday: .07″ of rain, High 74, Low 58
It’s been a pretty tame North Atlantic season thus far. The most headline grabbing feature thus far was Emily, a strong storm to be sure, with the greatest impact a dangerous surf seen along the Eastern Seaboard. This has been perpetuated by Fernand, currently churning in the western Atlantic. We are to late August, just a couple of weeks from the traditional peak of the season, and that is as wild as it has been.
Last year unleashed a torturous season, with hurricanes Helene and Milton doing damage in the southeastern US after Beryl had slogged through the Texas coast earlier in the season. Perhaps, with those names, you already recognize where I am going with this line of thought. Obviously, Helene – H and Milton – M, would come after where we are at with Fernand – F. Things can still get busy! That’s true, but also not the full point I was preparing to make.
At this point last year, Francine, 2024’s F storm, was still a month out. By this point in the year, 2024 had one fewer storm than we do in 2025. Certainly, there is a lot of season left to go, but also, 2025 hasn’t been abnormally slow, either.
The true assessment of a busy or not busy season will come at the end of the year, after we see where and with what intensity storms arrive on the coast. Since the news cycle hasn’t been overwhelmed by stories of landfalling hurricanes, we haven’t really thought about any tropical weather. That may change, perhaps not. Whatever the case, the Atlantic basin sure hasn’t been quiet this summer.
One could interpret my headline in two different ways. The … representing a gap where one might typically say a “dry” heat, but it wasn’t that in Midland during our forecast period. Nor was it obnoxiously humid, with dew points dipping into the 50s overnight. Or, you could interpret it as a heat, as in a dead heat, because three outlets drew level this time around. The Weather Channel, Weather Service AND WeatherNation ended with the same score. Two forecasts down this month, and two results with a 4 way then a 3 way tie. Actuals: August 14th, High 99, Low 74 August 15th, High 96, Low 78
Yes, we are pretty deep into August, but it’s been a somewhat active summer on the family front, so the gears at Victoria-Weather are moving a bit slowly. It’s been a busy summer, but not in the tropics. and the severe weather has been related, largely, to heavy precipitation this year. Perhaps partly because of the dynamics of the season, and certainly because of their skill in general, The Weather Channel is having a very strong stretch, and this year just keeps getting better for them.
It was a hot time in Pine Bluff on the 7th and 8th of the month. Of course, that is when we put together our forecast for the city, one that resulted in temperatures in the mid to upper 90s during the day, and temps that wouldn’t cool out of the mid 70s overnight. Uncomfortable, to be sure, but all outlets were pretty comfortable with each other’s forecast. There was a 4 way tie at the top, and only three degrees of difference separating top and bottom. It was The Weather Channel, Weather Service, WeatherNation and Clime all conglomerating at the top. Actuals: August 7th, High 94, Low 73 August 8th, High 97, Low 76
Having some minor (I hope) server issues today at Victoria-Weather HQ. That shouldn’t change the weather in Fort Collins, though, right? What can we expect in Northern Colorado this weekend?
At 956AM, MT, Fort Collins was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies and a brisk north wind. There is a bit of shower activity across northern Colorado is associated with a cold front appended to an area of low pressure in western Ontario. A leading trough has switched winds to northerly across Fort Collins, but the boundary remained just to the north in southern Wyoming. Shower activity is largely found in the mountains west of Fort Collins and Cheyenne, though there will be some light activity as the day wears on, lasting into the morning tomorrow. As the area of low pressure moves on to the east, high pressure will build in the Plains. In the southwest, warm air will begin to build again, and a laminar flow over the Rockies will lead to a down-slope and lee troughing in the Colorado flatlands. The contrast in air mass will lead to some ridge-riding thunderstorms in eastern Colorado by Sunday, but guidance and intuition suggest that the bulk of the activity will be south of the Palmer Divide, leaving Fort Collins mostly unbothered, but late in the period some activity could press into the area. Tomorrow – Isolated showers, especially early, High 74, Low 60 Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated thunder late High 80, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy skies late High 78, Low 61 Sunday – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 75, low 51
AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds breaking for some sun with a thunderstorm in one or two spots High 76, Low 60 Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon High 76, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 75, low 59 Sunday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 79, low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning then a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 72, Low 60 Sunday – Thunderstorms likely. High 74, low 56
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 75, low 59 Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light showers and scattered storms, High 79, Low 58
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 76, Low 60 Sunday – Thunderstorm, high 78, low 56
Count me in the “not likely” camp on Sunday thunderstorms. Everything right now just looks like it will show up too far to the south. Not today though, here is radar imagery, with showers heading in from Wyoming.
It gets hot and stays hot in the central valleys of California, but when you are butted up against the coast, on the west side of the Coastal Range, and without a corridor of wind form the Great Basin, it stays fairly cool, with clouds and sometimes, but not in the case of San Luis Obispo, a stray shower within the fog. Like I said, it was dry, and quite comfortable for our forecast at the end of July into the beginning of August. The Weather Service and WeatherNation drew level for the forecast, and anyone who strayed too far from the mid-70s ended up looking foolish. Actuals: July 31st, High 75, Low 56 August 1st, High 73, Low 54
6:47PM: It’s a pretty quiet stretch out west, even in the Rockies, where we might reasonably expect some afternoon thunderstorm activity this time of year. Instead, we are seeing the Rockies work as a pretty formidable dry line. As the jet shifts back up to the north a little bit, don’t be surprised to see some activity return to the mountains. That could happen as soon as Wednesday, and would also coincide with the Great Lakes finally drying out. (Not the lakes, but the towns surrounding them).
1130PM: There is a pretty gnarly looking cluster of thunderstorms, that, if nothing else, is producing a heck of a lot of lightning in the Clovis, New Mexico area. It would be jarring for a lot of places, but this qualifies as run of the mill for this time of year in this part of the country. Do they sleep along the Texas/New Mexico border?
This drive has all the elements of what I think makes a good road trip. It will take one long day, following only a couple of interstates. There is one major metro area to drive through, but also a long stretch in the open country. It will take nearly 10 hours to cover the 658 miles between our two destinations, covering the ground at a pace of 66.2mph. Hopefully traffic in Dallas-Fort Worth is forgiving.
Pine Bluff, Arkansas
Arkansas is going to be downright juicy on Thursday. Humidity will see dew points in the mid to upper 70s, and while guidance suggests most of the rain and thunder will be from Mississippi eastward, I wouldn’t rule it out during our drive to Texarkana. In fact, I would venture to say that the heavy atmosphere might lend itself to a stray storm as far west as Mount Vernon, Texas. The dew points will relent a bit west of Dallas, but the heat will still be there all the way in to Midland.
