Severe season strikes hard, early

It’s certainly not unheard of to have severe weather in March. In fact, it’s pretty standard for the first major spring storms to start appearing as early as mid-February nowadays. If there has been anything strange, it is that the storms haven’t been as problematic for Mississippi and Alabama, frequent targets for early season outbreaks.

This past week has featured deadly tornadoes in both Oklahoma and Michigan. Both locales are certainly accustomed to severe weather, but these outbreaks and the deaths because of them speak to the fickle nature of severe weather, rather than the particular strength of the storms in question.

In Oklahoma, there were two days of tornado related fatalities. The first came on the 5th, when a mother and daughter were killed in their vehicle in the northwestern part of the state. The guilty cell was an isolated supercell tracked from the Texas Panhandle

The storms were more widespread on the 6th, with storms, including a fatal storm in the Tulsa area. Certainly, it was unfortunate that such a storm would batter a large population center like this. Even more unfortunate was what looks like a single long track cell that went directly from Edwardsburg, Michigan to Three Rivers, Michigan to Union City, Michigan, doing this: along the way:

This storm claimed the lives of six in southwest Michigan. Aside from this cell, there were no other severe reports in Michigan. This goes to the seasonal reminder that not every tornado is in an outbreak, but all tornadoes can be dangerous. The highest threat level for those days was an “enhanced” risk in the southern Plains, while much of Michigan was labeled as marginal. It’s a reminder for added vigilance when storms are in the forecast, in case the 1 in 10 chance hits, and there are tornadoes, and your home or route is within the quarter mile width of the looming storm.

We do have more storms ahead. It is that time of year, when cold Canadian air is hanging on across the Plains, but the Gulf has started to pump heat and humidity back to the north. Our conflict zone tomorrow, will be from the Great Lakes to the Big Bend of Texas. There are enhanced risk zones at either end of the forecast thunderstorms. Be careful.

Updates 3/9

8:43AM: Not to be alarmist or any thing, but there is light rain approaching San Diego this morning 😮

10:31AM: IT IS RAINING IN SAN DIEGO

METAR KSDM 091453Z 00000KT 9SM -RA OVC075 13/10 A2990 RMK AO2 RAE1354B20 SLP122 P0001 60001 T01280100 51016

1:02PM: Oh, I did want you all to know: There will be a post later today, and it will probably not be specific to California.

9:47PM: The storms are coming tomorrow for the Plains and Great Lakes. but tonight, storms are winding down in the southeast, just where we would expect them to be this time of year.

11:55PM, Late night random thought: The Weather Channel has proven to be successful because they got the weather part of it right first. Even on the back end, they’ve been right more often than others lately. They have reinvested in clear communication. Like them or not, they are good at what they do.

February Forecaster of the Month

It was a light posting month here at the Weather Blog, but the weather has still been wild. Fortunately, after two months, a clear cut, reliable forecaster has emerged. Two for two, The Weather Channel has won again.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 2.5
Accuweather 1
WeatherNation 1
National Weather Service 0.5
Clime  
Victoria-Weather  
Weatherbug  

Updates 3/7

10:17AM: March is definitely the weather’s silly season. There were severe storms, as the SPC called for. The deadliest storms were a series of tornadoes in southwest Michigan that claimed four lives and injured several more while moving through commercial and residential areas of Three Rivers and Union City.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota, we awoke to fresh snow.

8:27PM: Everyone I know in the north is celebrating the potential 60s tomorrow. It’s great that they are even coming on the weekend, but be aware that cooler air is returning from the west at, oh, about 50mph.

Updates 3/6

5:00PM: Severe weather is breaking out in the Plains again today, so please be sure to monitor your local weather service and stations. Elsewhere, things have returned to “nearly perfect” in southern California, save for some high winds in the hills north of Los Angeles. Thankfully, normal moisture has returned, and this wind isn’t coupled with a fire threat.