In my own world

Usually, when I put together my forecasts, I like to see what other outlets are saying. We are all using NWS models, so why shouldn’t we look at their forecasts a little bit as well? Anyways, I clearly forgot to do that with our forecast in Atlantic City, because my low temperature forecasts were 5 or 6 degrees cooler than everyone else. Surely I would have at least called that out in the summary at the end of the forecast. Whatever the case, I was right, and Victoria-Weather, with our cool overnight lows won the forecast in the same way the nights passed in Atlantic City — comfortably.
Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 75, Low 55
Tuesday – High 76, Low 54

Grade: B-F

Denver, Colorado

We’ve managed a few trips to Colorado recently. The weather is always interesting there, so I have no complaints. How does the end of the week look in the Mile High City?

At 253PM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees and partly cloudy skies. A westerly flow in the Rockies was producing a few showers in the higher terrain, but a dew point of 38 dried everything out before it could reach the ground in town. High pressure is moving southward along the Front Range, and should lead to a fairly decent time on Friday.
An area of low pressure in the Great Lakes is tailing a cold front into the southern part of the state, where a few showers are found. A jet trough will dive through the Prairies over the next couple of days, with a brisk westerly flow across the Rockies into the trough. This will lead to locally warm flow and an inversion at the surface. This could make Saturday a bit on the grey/grimy side.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 68, Low 54
Saturday – Hazy and smoky, but warmer, High 79, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 72, Low 56
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 82, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with sun and areas of high clouds High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Mainly cloudy High 81, Low 49

NWS- Partly sunny High 73, Low 54
Saturday – A slight chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Increasing clouds, High 80, Low 50

WB – Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 73, Low 61
Saturday – Mostly sunny with a 10 percent chance of showers. High 81, Low 54

WN – Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 80, Low 50

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 70, Low 52
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 49

Well, this precipitation forecast got more interesting than I anticipated. It will be interesting to see how it turns out. I expect a lot of it will revolve around drizzle within the mist in the early mornings, rather than the stuff we see in the Plains tonight.

It was too good to be true

It seemed like a little bit cooler air was going to settle in early to southwestern Oklahoma. There was a chance for a little bit of rain over the holiday weekend, but it was still plenty warm. Saturday was he winning day in Lawton, with dry skies and a cooler temperature that came on Sunday. There wsan’t much rain, just a drizzle, and it came with temperatures that were back up in the upper 80s. It’s what you should expect in Lawton, but it’s still disappointing when the forecast was for something a bit cooler. Accuweather had the warmest forecast and earned victory for the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 81, Low 70
Sunday – .02″ of rain, High 88, Low 69

Grade: A-C

August Forecaster of the Month

Things were closely fought this month, with most forecasts resulting in ties, including one that was a 4 way draw. The winner, therefore, was barely better than the rest, but given how strong they have been this year, it’s another notch in the belt for The Weather Channel. Congratulations!

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 8.08
National Weather Service 6.91
Accuweather 5.5
Clime 3.75
Weatherbug 3
WeatherNation 2.91
Victoria-Weather 2.83