The radar, showing the band of heavy rain reaching the Hudson alley, is one thing, but don’t sleep on those post frontal winds. It’s howling over the eastern Great Lakes, which is leading to some small craft advisory, beach hazard warnings and even the threat of some lake effect rain later today.
High pressure weather, low pressure forecast
St. Louis was under a dominating ridge of high pressure during our forecast period. Return flow on the west side of the ridge drove temperatures up on Thursday, and nearly everyone handled things exquisitely. Victoria-Weather had a perfect forecast for Wednesday, but things ended up cooler in the morning on Thursday, which opened up the forecast for The Weather Channel to narrowly win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 81, Low 58
Thursday – High 87, Low 55
Grade: A – C
Flash flooding in the New Orleans area
A bunch of Gulf moisture has led to some of New Orleans western suburbs received up to 4 inches of rain, leading to some flash flooding in the area. Of course, the radar in the area is out, which really throws a wrench in things. Fthe flash flooding was reported on the ground though, and not necessarily by radar indications. Fortunately, Lake Charles and Mobile are up and running, providing coverage for NOLA.
Glens Falls, New York
We are headed to beautiful Upstate New York. This is the time of year for the residents to enjoy, before the autumn colors, and after kids are back to school.
At 653PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Dew points in the 60s and clear skies in the evening suggest some overnight fog or haze, especially over the various lakes of the region. Much of the day tomorrow will continue on with mostly clear skies, though increasing clouds and a congested pattern are certainly inbound.
A tropical feature lying northwest of Bermuda is projected to organize a bit and move towards Nova Scotia over the next 2 1/2 days. This is impactful, as for the time being, it is progged to pull in the latent Atlantic Coastal moisture, redirecting it away from a subtropical trough in the northern Tier that is increasing in strength and intensity as well. As the boundary approaches, the tropical feature will move into the Canadian Maritimes, opening up Atlantic moisture for the trough. Rain and some embedded thunderstorms will blossom across the mid-Atlantic, and move into eastern New York by Saturday, in the late afternoon. Rain and storms are possible through the evening, and into the night. By the time the feature reaches New York, it will be occluded, and the chance of overnight stratiform rain is higher as a result.
Tomorrow – Morning haze, High 76, Low 50
Saturday – Increasing clouds with rain, and a chance of thunder in the afternoon, High 70, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 78, Low 48
Saturday – Cloudy with rain developing later in the day. Thunder possible.
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 78, Low 47
Saturday – Cloudy and not as warm; a little afternoon rain High 71, Low 58
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 52
Saturday – A slight chance of showers before 2pm, then rain, mainly after 2pm. High 73, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 54
Saturday – Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the afternoon. High 69, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 71, Low 60
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 48
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 75, Low 56
Satellite shows clear skies on the East Coast, and the storm spiraling between Bermuda and New England, but not yet the wave getting ready to exit the Great Lakes.
Just under a century
If the temperature doesn’t reach triple digits in the California valleys, is it really a heat wave? That is the question you could ask about Chico to end the month of August, where highs were in the upper 90s. You could also ask who had the best forecast, and that answer would easily be the National Weather Service.
Actuals: Friday, High 98, Low 66
Saturday, High 98, Low 67
Grade: A – C
Evansville, Indiana
We aren’t going to travel too far from our previous forecast spot – St. Louis – but depending on your route, we are still two, maybe three states away.
At 154PM, CT, Evansville was reporting a temperature of 84 with clear skies. There was a trough extending at the lower levels from the western Gulf of Mexico, pressing into western Tennessee, which had resulted in some clouds streaming through Kentucky, and occasionally over Evansville. This feature was penetrating a strong ridge in the eastern US, so the trough figured to get snuffed out before it can do anything interesting, particularly around Evansville.
The instability in the Gulf, however, is expect to spread into the southeastern US as high pressure begins to recede away from the mid-Atlantic. A weak trough running along the Canadian border will drape a cold front into the Plains that will be approaching the lower Ohio Valley on Friday. The cold front will pass through southern Indiana late in the day, however the instability rising out of the Gulf will prevent much moisture for reaching the Evansville city streets. While there is a small chance for rain, there is a better chance for increasing winds and an initial dose of autumnal air.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 66
Friday – Increasing clouds and wind with a spot of rain, High 85, Low 68
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 91, Low 63
Friday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 93, Low 64
Friday – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in one or two spots; not as hot High 86, Low 65
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 65
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 68
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, low 66
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 68
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 92, Low 66
Friday – Thunderstorm, High 89, low 67
Forecasts for Friday are an interesting study in “when do you think the front will arrive?” Later arrival suggests warmer highs on Friday. The satellite for the region shows a band of clouds spiraling all the way north from the Gulf.
St. Louis, Missouri
Welcome to September. Lets get ourselves off to a good start with a forecast from the middle of the country.
At 751PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. High pressure was blanketing the northeastern part of the US, with the western flank laying over the Mississippi Valley. There was, as a result, a bit of moisture flowing at the mid levels bringing the scattered clouds to St. Louis.
The ridge isn’t going to be easy to move. A short wave is going to ripple at the southern flank of the subtropical jet in Canada. The cold front associated with it will struggle to produce any rain fall in the middle of the country, and will be rubbed out before it reaches the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the boundary, however, some warmth will filter in and give another taste of summer.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny and warmer, High 88, Low 60
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. High 79, Low 57
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 86, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant; a gorgeous day to be outside High 78, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice High 85, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 81, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 60
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 58
CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 60
Wednesday – Sunny, High 88, Low 60
I could have gone even warmer on Wednesday, but alas, what is a couple of degrees? Wispy clouds for St. Louis tonight.
Welcome to meteorological all
The meteorological seasons don’t quite line up with the seasons of the astronomical calendar, which means that instead of waiting until the 21st, we can say that autumn begins today. This does not, however, mean that I condone the Aberdeen WFO making their weather story pumpkin spiced,
