One method of forecasting that we have is called “persistence forecasting” which basically using the weather that is seen on one day, and carrying that forward in your forecast. It can work in Florida, especially with what we have see in places like Orlando late in the summer. It’s hot and humid, temperatures generally float at about the same levels, there is usually a stray storm in the area, and you hope to avoid tropical intrigue. That’s how it went for our forecast towards the beginning of the month, though it was a hair cooler than it was when we created the forecast on the 3rd. Accuweather came through with their best performance in a while, and earned victory for the day. Actuals: August 4th, .27 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 76 August 5th, .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, Low 79
I’m going to be verifying the forecast for Orlando later today, and while I know that the weather today is similar to what it was when we issued the forecast earlier this week, there is another similarity that is ongoing. It’s the middle of August, but we aren’t looking at any imminent tropical features in the North Atlantic.
With the forecast for hurricanes continuing to be above average, this could certainly change on a dime. The hurricane driven winds that exacerbated the wildfires in Maui, are a reminder that the North Atlantic is not the only place threatened by tropical storms.
Oh, good evening, large thunderstorm cluster bearing down on Philadelphia. Expect some hail out of this guy and some briefly gusty winds. There were some trees down southwest of Reading thanks to this one. Even if this doesn’t bring the severity into Philadelphia, it is still arriving in the wee hours of the morning when you should be sleeping. A rough morning awaits.
We’re marching on through summer, and after failing to mention the top outlets last month, we get a twofer here in August. Weatherbug was the top outlet back in June, a notion belied by their position near the bottom of the Forecast Wins chart. Still, that’s the chart for the year, and one strong set of forecasts can earn you the month, like it did for Weatherbug in June.
With more work done in July, we were able to see an outlet with a stronger win total actually claim the title for the month. In the first month of the second half of the year, the title was claimed by those stalwarts at The Weather Channel. They also scooched on up the Forecast Wins total, but they moved in to 2nd place, which is more impressive than Weatherbug’s second to the bottom.
Congratulations to both of our winners, and to you, for having so many good weather providing options these days.
A large tornado watch continues for the eastern Great Lakes, including a couple of active tornado warnings in northeast Ohio. The watch extends into western New York, but at this time, there are no warnings there. Don’t get complacent yet, there is still an enhanced risk for the region.
It’s been since the spring, but the SPC has actually started using the Days 4-8 outlook imagery, at least days 4-5, with a mass of potential storms moving through the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic. For now, it is something of a curiosity, but with this much certainty this far out, it seems fairly likely that the outlooks will be upgraded as we get closest to Sunday and Monday.
The National Weather Service in Omaha is looking ahead to some severe weather in the northern part of the region tomorrow, between 6pm and 1am. I know this because I looked at this graphic for about half a second, and realized that I should share it as an example of meteorologists getting to the point and getting the message across.
Norway is a very important country in the history of meteorological research. Vilhelm Bjerknes formed the Bergen School of meteorology, which produced meteorologists like his son Jakob and Carl Rossby, as well as the Norwegian Cyclone model, which is one of the first basic understandings of how low pressure systems work, with warm and cold fronts, which reach occlusion and deteriorate. For all that meteorological history and prowess, the country is sure upside down today.
Via Accuweather
I highlighted a few places, namely the two warm spots and the coolest spot. Tromso and Bodo are both north of the Arctic Circle. Drammen is in the southern part of Norway, southwest of Oslo. (Bergen, the city of meteorological record, is also chilly and in the southern part of the country.) The cities are the same distance apart as New York and Orlando, so this is particularly unusual. When you look at the radar and see most of the North Sea socked in with rain, it starts to make more sense, and when you realize the Arctic is still seeing full daylight for 20 hours a day, it all clicks.
Today is setting up to be an adventurous weather day. As you can see by the graphic on the upper right corner of the page, the SPC has a moderate risk for severe weather in the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, with a tornado watch already set up for the western face of the range, including much of the upper Ohio Valley. Storms there are just emerging, with the first severe warnings near Parkersburg, West Virginia, and more certainly to follow.
An existing line of thunderstorms is also racing eastward, east of Memphis, and has a history of producing 65mph winds.
If all that wasn’t enough, the SPC also has a mesoscale discussion out for eastern Washington and northern Idaho. I can’t imagine we will remember the weather there like we may remember the weather furth east as the day goes on.
Let’s take a trip northeastward to western New York. Syracuse is a home to a journalism shool, so this is definitely not the first time the town has been written about.
At 854PM, ET, Syracuse was reporting a temperature of 73 degree with cloudy skies. An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes was driving a field of rain north, approaching Syracuse, presently southwest of a line from Batavia to Watkins Glen. The weak jet parenting this area of low pressure is going to steer the low laconically to the northeast. The heaviest shower and thunderstorm activity reaches only as far north as southern Illinois, and is not expected to press further to the north. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast for each of the next two days as the low pressure meanders through the region. AS the system continues to occlude, the precipitation will become lighter, but move more slowly. Expect things to finally start drying out Tuesday in the late afternoon, but clouds are expected to linger. Tomorrow – Scattered showers, High 81, Low 67 Tuesday – Light rain in the morning, becoming clearer, High 75, Low 67
TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 84, Low 68 Tuesday – Rain showers in the morning will evolve into a more steady rain in the afternoon. High 71, Low 66
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and breezy; occasional morning rain and a thunderstorm followed by a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 82, Low 67 Tuesday – Windy with periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 73, Low 65
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. Mostly cloud High 84. Low 67 Tuesday – Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. High 77, Low 65
WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds with small hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain fall in the afternoon. High 79, Kiw 66 Tuesday- Showers. High 69, Low 63
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 84, Low 67 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 77, Low 67
CLI: Tomorrow – Light Rain showers, High 82, Low 66 Tuesday – Drizzle, High 75, Low 68
I[‘m inclined to agree with Clime on this one. I don’t see much in the threat for thunderstorms given the occlusion and position of the area of low pressure. Here is the radar, with rain on the doorstep.
