Storm Shadow

The Shenandoah Valley was far enough inland that the storm system that scooted up the coast early last week didn’t bring any precipitation to Harrisonburg on Tuesday. Residents of Harrisonburg did not get to enjoy any downsloping, however, and even without the rain, the cool north Atlantic breeze suppressed afternoon highs, and Monday and Tuesday couldn’t even reach the 50s. This combination of events allowed Victoria-Weather and Accuweather to split honors.
Actuals: Monday – High 46, low 24
Tuesday – High 45, Low 25

Grade:

Monroe, Michigan

It’s a rough time for basketball fans in Michigan. Michigan State lost tonight, while Michigan lost last weekend, and both to the same team, Texas Tech. Perhaps they will cope quickly. Does Monroe have the forecast for recuperation?

At 1253AM, ET, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with clear sites. Dew points were also at 46, and with haze filtering in around Ann Arbor, it seems as though the morning will be hazy in Monroe. Low pressure is developing in the Plains, with a warm front already arcing through northern Michigan. Warm, moist air was spilling into the eastern Great Lakes.
Low pressure will reach Michigan by this afternoon, with some rain and isolated thunderstorm activity joining it. The parent trough has been fairly shallow and is expected to move quickly across the northern US. The precipitation will ultimately punch through the region in the afternoon and evening and be out of the picture by Monday morning. It will be cooler to start the work week, but the responsible trough will be shallow enough that cold air won’t be overwhelming.
Tomorrow – Rain with a bit of thunder in the afternoon, High 63, Low 46
Monday – Clearing through mid morning, and warmer, High 68, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with showers for the afternoon hours. Thunder possible. High 58, Low 41
Monday – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. High 67, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Increasing cloudiness, mild; spotty afternoon showers High 62, Low 45
Monday – Clouds giving way to some sun; warm High 69, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, Hgh 65, Low 45
Monday – Mostly sunny, (Early rain) High 68, Low 5

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the morning, then rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 64, Low 43
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 68, low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated storms, High 65, Low 44
Monday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 68, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the evening. High 60, Low 40
Monday – Mostly cloudy until night. High 64, Low 51

Satellite has some clouds to the southwest. That’s the rain coming later today.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 11 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M6C11_G16_s20190970551218_e20190970553591_c20190970554048.nc

March Forecaster of the Month

We were very busy in March. Even despite our complete website collapse, we fit 11 forecasts in, so we definitely feel comfortable in saying that The Weather Channel did enough to prove that they were the forecaster of the Month. It’s even more impressive than that, as they had 4.5 wins in March alone, and went from the lowest forecast win total for the year to the lead. Nice work, Weather Channel!

OutletMonth wins
The Weather Channel4.5
Victoria-Weather2
WeatherNation2
National Weather Service1.5
Accuweather1
Weatherbug
Forecast.io
OutletMonth winsyear wins
The Weather Channel4.55.75
Victoria-Weather25
Weatherbug4.58
National Weather Service1.53.75
WeatherNation23.58
Forecast.io3
Accuweather12.33

The opening salvo

We’re looking at a pretty active week in New England, and it ended with a bit of inclement weather last week as well. An area of low pressure slashed through New England and brought wind and rain to the region on Thursday and Friday, including in Worcester, where we had stopped in for a forecast. Things remained much cooler than in the forecast as a slow moving cold front proved inhibiting to solar radiation. Victoria-Weather was one of the handful of outlets that correctly called for rain (and they got .14″ which isn’t anything to sneeze at) and we also happened to be on the cool side of forecasters. Those two factors were enough to secure victory.
Actuals: Thursday, High 50, Low 25
Friday – .14 inches of rain, High 51, Low 38

Grade: B-D