Tag Archives: Rochester

Autumnal incursion

We knew the rain during the middle of the week in Rochester and the rest of Minnesota was a harbinger of the pending autumn. Cold air was going to follow the rain, but no outlet really apprehended quite how chilly it would actually get. Low temperatures were about 5 degrees cooler than anyone anticipated on both Wednesday and Thursday. I can assure you, the chilly nights are turning leaves to orange acrosss the region. The chilliest forecast belonged to Weatherbug, who also ended up closer on high temperatures than most.
Actuals: Wednesday – .01 inches of rain, High 69, Low 51
Thursday – .44 inches of rain, High 65, Low 44

Grade C-D

Rochester, Minnesota

Let’s not waste any time. We’re off to southeastern Minnesota.

At 1154 PM, CT, Rochester was reporting light rain and a temperature of 54 degrees. The heavier rain was found west of I-35 and Owatonna and Albert Lea, and was certainly on its way to inundate Rochester overnight. The rain, which will certainly be heavy at times, will clear out by the time lunch time rolls around. Temperatures will begin a cooldown towards the end of the week.
The broad upper level trough fostering this surface low is developing a tight eddy at its base. A secondary low is forecast to develop at the surface in the Plains on Thursday, lifting north towards Rochester by evening, introducing more chilly rain.
Tomorrow – Rain early, then cooler, High 68, Low 57
Thursday – Rain returns late, High 66, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon (rain thru 4AM). High 68, Low 56
Thursday -Partly cloudy in the morning, followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 68, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – A little rain early this morning; mostly cloudy High 72, Low 56
Thursday – Rain at times Hgh 71, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 71, Low 56
Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 70, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, High 70, Low 54
Thursday – Mostly sunny in the morning, ten mostly cloudy with a50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 69, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 72, Low 55
Thursday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 70, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning. High 72, Low, 55
Thursday- Rain starting in the evening. Hgih 71, Low 50

Here comes the rain!


S’now problem, really

Rochester was doused with a little over an inch of snow on Friday evening, that rolled into Tuesday morning, but then, despite the freshly fallen snow, the temperature spiked all the way to 50 degrees on Saturday afternoon. Halfway to a hundred on January 30th in western New York? Would that they have southerly flow all winter in western New York. This high temperature was not well managed by our outlets, but the National Weather Service was very good with their other forecasts and claimed victory to finish off the month.
Actuals: Friday- 1.2″ of snow, High 36, Low 22
Saturday – Trace of snow, High 50, Low 19

Grade: C-D

Jackson, Mississippi to Rochester, New York

It’s actually about 50 minutes faster to get from Jackson to Rochester than from Elmira to Jackson, yesterday’s route. It also takes a totally different route. The only similarity is that they both touch Jackson. This trip covers 1185 miles, and our route relies heavily on the interstate, so we will be moving along at 68.3mph. As a result, we will cover 546 miles on the first day, with about an extra hour expected on top of our normal drive on Saturday. Let’s see how different the weather looks today.

DAY ONE (Friday)
Our first day of travel will be very nice. A weak thermal ridge is building in the southern United States, so warm and sunny conditions will dominate the drive through Mississippi, Tennessee and into Kentucky. We will stop for the night on Friday in Elizabethtown, Kentucky.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
To be totally honest (which I hope you have come to expect from me) I don’t think there will be much snow on Saturday. We should make it through Ohio without a flake, but somewhere during that last hour or so, from Buffalo to Rochester, the winds will turn and become lake borne, and it is at this point that we will begin to flurry. It won’t slow much down, not in this part of New York, and it may even be picturesque when we arrive in Rochester.

Rochester, New York

We were just in western New York, taking a look at Elmira. There is a clipper coming, but how does it look now?

At 154ET, Rochester was reporting partly cloudy skies and a brisk south wind. The temperature was 39. There is a swath of overcast just across the Canadian border at the leading edge of an Alberta Clipper that is poised to make it’s way to Western New York by nightfall. A vast system in the Gulf Stream, however, is inhibiting progress, and will ultimately shear the Clipper to bits.
That’s not to say there won’t be any precipitation in the Rochester area tomorrow, as there certainly will be a few flurries tonight through most of the day tomorrow, but the most accumulation they should expect will be about 1″ in an area where they can easily get 10 times as much. The fact that the Clipper is getting folded into the broader system to the east is also good news as it will pull the moisture out more quickly. Saturday morning will be dry, but as luck would have it, in this progressive pattern, there is another wave waiting to wing Rochester with a bit more light snow late on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Scattered snow showers through the day, High 31, Low 21
Saturday, Snow showers early, with a wintry mix late, High 36, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Snow showers early with a chance of lingering snow showers later, High 37, Low 24
Saturday – Cloudy skies, High 41, Low 22

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and increasingly windy with snow showers, accumulating an inch or two High 34, Low 23
Saturday – Cloudy and warmer with a couple of snow showers High 39 Low 22

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow showers, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy High 36, Low 22
Saturday – A chance of snow showers between 8am and noon, then a chance of rain showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 41, Low 21

WB: Tomorrow – Snow showers likely in he morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Accumulation an inch or less. High 36, Low 22
Saturday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Hiigh 41, Low 22

WN: Tomorrow – Windy with Snow Showers Possible High 34, Low 21
Saturday – Mostly Cloudy with Chance of Light Wintry Mix High 41, Low 23

FIO: Tomorrow – Light snow (under 1 in.) until afternoon, starting again in the evening. high 36, Low 20
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 40, Low 20

This is a nuisance snow, no two ways about it. Just a little dusting to make the roads greasy, but nothing to cause any school delays or anything fun. Check out the satellite, where you can see the swirl of the first clipper in eastern Canada, and the bright tops of the second one over the Rockies

Beautiful Weekend

High pressure shifted over the Rochester area to start the weekend, and made for a beautiful day on Saturday. More of the same happened on Sunday, with temperatures ticking up a notch. NWS takes home the win with a nearly perfect forecast.

Saturday: High 75, Low 57.
Sunday: High 79, Low 56.
Forecast Grade: A

Billings, Montana to Rochester, New York

Hey, gang, it’s time for a road trip! We’ll be on the road for 3 1/2 days, covering 1834 miles. That will put us on a pace of about 63.6mph. I think we can handle this, but we should get going. I’m a little surprised that the pace is so relaxed. Expect to cover only 509 miles a day.

DAY ONE (Saturday)
A deep area of low pressure over the northern Plains is going to really organize tonight and into tomorrow. The low itself will lie over eastern North Dakota and into northern Minnesota and the cold front will be marching through Minnesota. This means we will be post frontal, however similar to the system early this week, moisture will wrap around the low, and there will be a chance for moisture from Billings to the Black Hills, coming as drizzle possibly and clouds certainly. When we start driving through the Plains, the system will have shifted north towards Canada, pulling the rain away from South Dakota. Our day will end in Kymann, about half way across SoDak.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
South of the upper level trough, it will be fairly cool, with mostly cloudy skies. The dry slot will dominate our route, and there could really be some significant clearing late in the day. As the low gets deeper, that cold front will move faster, so we’re going to be even further away from threatening weather at the end of the day than we were at the beginning. The night ends in Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

DAY THREE (Monday)
More high pressure! Another easy drive. This time it will be sunny and the day will end in Pembroke, New York. So close! There really isn’t much to add, frankly.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
The law will begin to unravel, meaning more clouds will eject over the Lakes. Still, with the brief drive on Tuesday morning, there is virtually no chance we need to worry about an organized shower before we arrive at our destination.


Rochester, New York

Western New York, it’s the weekend! Let’s check out what’s happening!

At 1054PM, ET, Rochester was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 62 degrees. There was high pressure across the mid-Atlantic with a light southerly flow across western New York. There was a small batch of mid layer clouds surrounding Lake Erie, but the rest of the region was clear. As a result, Rochester and Buffalo, cloudier than other spots in the region, were also several degrees warmer than other spots.
High pressure will lend to a very nice day on Saturday to begin the weekend, and will get Sunday off to a nice start as well. The second deep trough of the week will move into the Upper Midwest by Sunday, and will begin to impact Rochester on Sunday evening. Instead of introducing rain through the weekend, however, it will simply redirect flow to import warm, moist air to the eastern Great Lakes, saving the precipitation for Monday.
Tomorrow – Sunny and marvelous. High 75, Low 53
Sunday – Warmer with increasing clouds late, High 80, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 55
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 75, Low 55
Sunday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 82, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny High 80, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny High 80, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 73, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly Sunny High 81, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 76, Low 59
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 59

Looks like a terrific weekend in Rochester. Nice! Here is the satellite with some light clouds aound Lake Erie.

Taking a while to break out.

Rochester struggled with clouds through most of the forecast period, but fortunately fore forecast purposes, the cloud deck wasn’t so thick as to disrupt temperature forecasts, so long as the afternoon highs weren’t too high. Victoria-Weather was closest to the mark, most impressively with the low temperatures, for what ended up being a set of surprisingly dry days.
Actuals: Friday – High 62, Low 50
Saturday – High 67, Low 48

Grade: A-C

Rochester, Minnesota

We’re on the forecast road again, but not too far from Victoria-Weather HQ.

At 1154AM, CT, Rochester was reporting a brisk 35mph south wind with a dew point near 60, mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Rochester looked poised to join the active thunderstorm pattern that was encompassing the northern Plains, as a double barrelled area of low pressure had a northern component moving through the Upper Midwest towards western Ontario, which was importing cold air into Minnesota. This will likely be the impetus for some thunderstorm development this evening.
Some of that shower activity will take its time departing southeastern Minnesota, and rain may be possible in the pre-dawn hours on Friday. The southern, much more impactful area of low pressure will emerge into the central Plains with the support of fully realized upper level troughing. This will case the low to churn south of Minnesota and will serve to deflect away any humidity, and Rochester stands to benefit from the strong storms to the south, with a pair of very nice days to conclude the week.
Tomorrow – Some showers early, then mostly sunny, High 63, Low 50 (non standard)
Saturday – Mostly sunny and dry, High 67, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – AM clouds, PM Sun High 66, Low 55
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (early rain) High 66, Low 54
Saturday – Some sunshine giving way to clouds High 69, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am. Mostly cloudy High 65, Low 55
Saturday – Partly Sunny, High 67, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Cooler. Mostly cloudy (early showers/storms) High 65, Low 53
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 66, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy (early storms) High 64, Low 55
Saturday – Partly Cloudy High 66, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight. High 64, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 65, Low 46

A look at the raday shows that the soupy weather is already producing some rainfall.