from Victoria-Weather
The forecasts for Idaho Falls at the end of the month were all over the map. Instead of falling somewhere in the middle of the group, the weather instead found itself on the cool side, particularly with low temperatures on October 1st. The sub freezing temperatures were forecast by only one outlet — Victoria-Weather. Forecasters were way too warm otherwise, and Victoria-Weather won fairly easily.
Actuals: September 30th, High 64, Low 42
October 1st, High 73, Low 31
Grade: A-D
So much of the Idaho population center lies in the Snake River Valley, creating a U shape through southern Idaho. Idaho Falls is in the eastern part of the state, and I cannot confirm whether or not there are indeed snakes there.
At 653PM, MT, Idaho Falls was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. It’s been dry in the northern Rockies, and there are red flag warnings out for the region. Conversely, low pressure moving through British Columbia is going to bring enough cold air southward that there are freeze advisories for northern Idaho. This is indicative of the overnight cooldown expected in Idaho Falls tonight.
By Tuesday the next system will be moving into the Gulf of Alaska, and drawing warm air back northward. There may be a few clouds on Monday with the cooler air intruding, but it should clear out and warm right back up on Tuesday, the beginning of an uneven week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, chilly in the morning, High 64, Low 40
Tuesday – Sunny and warmer by afternoon, frost in the morning, High 71. Low 31
TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon HIgh 66, Low 39
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 73, Low 32
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler HIgh 66, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly sunny and nice High 72, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 38
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, warmer, High 68, Low 37
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 48
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 39
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 45
I’ve checked. No typos here, this forecast just looks to be all over the map. Satellite would suggest that this shouldn’t be so complicated.
I spent quite a bit of time tweeting @Vic_WX as Hurricane Ian made landfall near Punta Gorda and Fort Myers, Florida. I suggest a follow for discussion on live and breaking news stories like Ian.
Last week, Idaho Falls was in the midst of a warm up that brought it close to record warmth for this time of year. With a trough off to the northwest, it seemed like these figures were about to change. How fast and how much was up for debate, though. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel were on the right side of the debate, insisting that it would be “not very quickly” and “by about 5 degrees”. Actually, the issue for those that struggled with this forecast was a belief in more cloud cover for the area, and missed cold on the highs and warm on the lows. this warmth thanks to early sunshine and clear skies meanth much rainier storms when the clouds finally did fill in.
Actuals: 9/20 – High 84, low 42
9/21 – .68 inches of rain and thunderstorms, High 79, Low 45
Grade B-D
We’ve been dabbling out in the Great Lakes or southeast for so long, it seems about time to hone our skills out west.
At 953PM, MT, Idaho Falls was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 59 degrees. The western US was within a strong upper level trough, which was tiered and producing two separate surface features. A weak low and cold front lay over Canada, and at the base of the deeper trough, a low spun off the California coast. Idaho Falls sat between the two features, and was a position of calm. The trough was squashing monsoonal moisture to the osuth.
The low off the California coast will be the one to follow, as it will track along the existing jet structure. It will take until the afternoon on Wednesday, but it will arrive in eastern Idaho, pulling monsoonal moisture back northward. Rain and some isolated thunderstorms are expected in the evening in Idaho Falls, along with a few blustery gusts.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 46
Wednesday – Showers in the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. High 78, Low 47
TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time. High 84, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly cloudy in the morning. Thunderstorms developing later in the day High 79, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warm with the temperature breaking the record of 83 set in 1966 High 84, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 77, Low 48
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 47
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly sunny with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 76, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 78, Low 50
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 81, Low 50
Wednesday – Rain in the evening. High 72, Low 54
There is a big difference between the west and east of the Rockies. When amid a trough out west you can still get record highs. Let’s get the local perspective from KIFI in Idaho Falls