Tag Archives: Greeley

Unable to hurdle the Divide

Here is a pretty big surprise. There was a large system that developed over the southern High Plains, aided by a wave in western Colorado. There was a lot of action going on around Greeley, but instead of seeing persistent light snow as a result of all the destabilizing forces, as had been expected, they instead saw nothing. No snow whatsoever for the last two days. The snow was trapped in the Plains and in southeastern Colorado, unable to shift north of the Palmer Divide and sparing Greeley, Fort Collins and surrounding communities. On the other hand, the clear skies did allow temperatures to drop down to 3 degrees both Friday and Saturday morning, which made me feel better about myself, since Victoria-Weather featured a cooler solution. The best solution, though, belonged to The Weather Channel, who not only tied for the best temperature forecast, but also managed to be the only one who didn’t call for snow for two straight days.
Actuals: Friday – High 23, Low 3
Saturday – High 28, Low 3

Grade: B-D

Greeley, Colorado to Detroit, Michigan

This was supposed to be a yesterday forecast, but I just didn’t get to it. Many apologies. Let’s take a look at this 2 1/2 day trek today instead! It is a 1244 mile journey that we will cover at a pace of 65mph. The first two days will allow us to cover a whopping 520 miles, but we will leave the final 200 miles for Tuesday. Let’s get this delayed journey underway!

DAY ONE (Sunday)
Greeley
By delaying our trip, we have probably saved ourselves some headaches. Indeed, expect mostly sunny skies over Nebraska, and for snowfall to remain south of the Palmer Divide in Colorado. It will be chilly, but the snow that threatens to rise out of the central PLains today will be well ahead of us. In this case, a cold front will have developed south of Nebraska, and clear skies and cold temperatures will only be an issue when we stop for gas. The drive will end in Garner, Iowa, which is just northeast of Council Bluffs, and will be getting partly cloudy as we stop for the night.

DAY TWO (Monday)
High pressure will continue rotating east through the southern Great Lakes, like a bubble over our car during our trip. Chilly conditions will continue along our route, but they will begin to modify as the ridge contracts. Clouds will be more likely, as will traffic, but we will make our way to Bethany Beach on the shores of Lake Michigan in the state it was named after by the end of the Day Monday.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)
Now we pay for our delay. A massive area of low pressure developing in the Plains will just begin to move into Michigan in the morning on Tuesday. Sure, warm air will eventually turn things too rain in the Lower Peninsula, but I think as we are making our trek, we need to worry about the potential for sleet or freezing rain, particularly from Kalamazoo to Ann Arbor, but the possibility will be there essentially for the entire trip from Bethany Beach to Detroit. When we get to the Motor City though, it will turn to rain, so that’s something, right?

Detroit

Greeley, Colorado

We’re headed to northeastern Colorado for today’s forecast. It looks like things could get a little active today, so let’s see what’s going on.

At 1255PM, MT, Greeley was reporting a temperature of 19 degrees with overcast skies. Snow was being reported across the Front Fange, but it hadn’t been able to develop north into Greeley as yet. There is a sharp lee trough along the ridge line, but the real culprit for snow showers was high pressure developing over the Plains.
Aloft, a jet driving southeast towards Arizona is aiding with the development of an area of low pressure over the 4 Corners, on the other side of the Rockies. Snow showers will blossom over western Colorado today, and will only serve to reinforce the easterly upslope in eastern Colorado. Snow will develop over Greeley this afternoon, and will continue even as the surface wave moves into west Texas. Snow showers will diminish overnight Friday, but deeper, broader upper level trough will move into the Great Basin through the day Friday, allowing for a vast system to begin forming over Nevada. This system will eventually be a significant system for the center of the country, but it will take its time becoming an issue for Greeley, with much of its associated snowfall remaining south of the Palmer Divide until Saturday night. High pressure combined with upsloping will lead to very cold temperatures.
Tomorrow – Scattered snow showers likely, High 18, Low 4
Saturday – Isolated snow showers late in the evening, High 23, Low 0

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (early snow), High 20, Low 6
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, High 26, Low 5

AW: Tomorrow – A little snow in the morning, accumulating a coating to an inch; otherwise, cloudy and cold High 21, Low 6
Saturday – Cold with snow at times, accumulating an inch or two High 24, Low 6

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, High 23, low 11
Saturday – A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Cloudy High 25, Low 8

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. High 22, Low 6
Saturday – Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. High 25, Low 6

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Slight Chance of Light Snow High 21, Low 9
Saturday – Mostly Cloudy with Chance of Light Snow High 27, Low 7

FIO: Tomorrow – Light snow in the morning. High 21, Low 9
Saturday – Light snow (under 1 in.) starting in the afternoon. High 26, Low 8

You know, I’m going to stick with model guidance on this one. I don’t see anything that makes me want to give Greeley warmer temepratures. They are out in the plain and are more exposed to the cold air and advection. We’ll see if this gambit pays off. Here is the radar, showing snow smothering Denver.
Greeley

All right then

Part of the expectation for Greeley was that there would be a westerly flow with clear skies driving a warm up in temperature to finish off the week. Some models had different ideas, though, suggesting winds that were fairly calm on Thursday, and a failure to rise. Some people, like Accuweather, accounted for that and had a lower high in their forecast. Little did anyone know that even the coldest of the models couldn’t touch how cool it remained Thursday, with temperatures reaching only 42 degrees. Clear skies overnight and a morning low of 17 got things off to a bad start. Victoria-Weather was redeemed by having a much colder morning low in the forecast on Thursday, and ended up claiming victory, but it was pretty tough stuff all the way around. It was one of those verifications that I have to triple check the numbers to see if they were really as bad as they seemed. (Friday was a lot better though!)
Actuals: Thursday – High 42, Low 17
Friday – High 53, Low 19

Grade: D

Reno, Nevada to Greeley, Colorado

Now this, this seems like a trucker route. Through the Great Basin and the Rockies, with only Salt Lake City in betweem. All interstate, all the time. It’s 1006 miles between the cities, and will take us about 2 full days to cover the drive. Actually, day #1, Thursday, will be a hair longer, covering 519 of the miles at nearly 65mph. Let’s roll out. Over and out.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
Reno
An upper level wave over the Great Basin is going to be far more problematic this weekend, as it moves into the Plains, and tomorrow, it will bring most of its issues to the southern Rockies. That being said, it comes from the remnants of a massive Pacific storm that slammed into the west coast earlier in the week, and there is bound to be some detritus. It won’t be organized and it won’t be widespread, but still, expect some light rain throughout northern Nevada as well as northern Utah. As luck would have it, Salt Lake City is about the halfway mark, and we will end up in that very city Thursday night.

DAY TWO (Friday)
Flow behind the system as it moves into the Plains will be generally westerly, with a bit of a northwest bent to it. We will enjoy some mostly cloudy conditions through the higher terrain of Wyoming because of this flow, but any precipitation coming from orographic forcing will be confined to the Colorado Rockies, of which we will not avail ourselves. It should be mild and sunny when we turn south and finish the drive from Cheyenne to Greeley.
Greeley

Greeley, Colorado

Let’s swing on out to the Front Range for a nice little forecast with the threat of a nice warm down slope flow.

At 735PM, MT, Greeley was reporting a temperature of 28 degrees with clear skies. The upper level pattern across the region was predominantly westerly, and satellite gave evidence of that, with some high clouds at the peaks of the Colorado Rockies, but not much going as soon as the flow begins to descend the eastern slope.
An upper level wave moving out of the 4 Corners will flatten out as it moves into northern New Mexico tomorrow. A deep, lee trough won’t be expected, but a few showers are expected to develop south of the Palmer Divide tomorrow. It will appear cloudy in Greeley, but they will be high clouds and won’t threaten the pavement around town. As the wave moves into the Plains, a weak upper level ridge will take over the region, maintaining the clear dry pattern that Greeley has come to enjoy.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 55, Low 19
Friday – Sunny, High 54, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 53, Low 23
Friday – Sunny, High 56, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy and milder High 51, Low 22
Friday – Sunshine and patchy clouds High 53, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 53, Low 24
Friday – Mostly sunny High 55, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 55, Low 25
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 55, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 54, Low 25
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 55, Low 30

The models do not in any way match the consistency suggested by the forecasts our associates have issued. This will be an interesting verification. Here is the cool satellite image showing clouds diminishing upon their attempt to descend the Rockies.
Greeley

Dry, high base storms for Greeley

It wasn’t exactly as expected for Greeley the past two days, but it was pretty darn close. Temperatures were in the 90s both Sunday and Monday, but there was a small surprise. Greeley reported a thunderstorm on Monday evening for about 20 minutes, though no precipitation was reported. It was just a rogue storm over the plains that kicked off a lightning strike which ended up close enough to the sensor that the thunderstorm was reported. It was inconsequential to the course of the day, as well as to the verification. Nobody had a storm in the forecast, so it came down to temperatures, where Victoria-Weather had the high score.
Actuals: Sunday – High 95, Low 53
Monday – Thunderstorm reported High 91, Low 51

Grade: C

Lexington, Kentucky to Greeley, Colorado

We’re taking a trip between two college towns, headed from the home of the University of Kentucky to the home of the University of Northern Colorado. It’s a 1224 mile journey that will take us 2 days to complete, with the second day taking longer than the first. There is a lot of interstate to cover, soo we will maintain a fairly brisk pace of about 65ph overall. By those estimates, day one will be done after just short of 520 miles. We will cross the Great Plains on this trip, so I hope passengers brought along some reading.

DAY ONE (Sunday)
Lexington
A rather persistent surface feature remains unmoved over Missouri. Most of the moisture today, tomorrow and for the last several days, has remained at the leading edge of the rain shower activity. As we head out for the drive on Sunday, that means the potential for light rain showers in western Kentucky, which will become very heavy between Paducah and St. Louis (AKA, over Illinois). The rain will end abruptly on the west side of St. Louis, however, and we will be free and clear to Sweet Springs, about an hour outside of Kansas City.

DAY TWO (Monday)
An upper level wave moving through the Northern Plains. There is some suggestion that we will see some heavier rain between Salina and Kansas City in eastern Kansas, but through the western part of the state, it appears that activity will be very isolated. Temperatures rising through the afternoon will cap things, so by about 2pm, the threat for precipitation will be over for us. It will be like this from Hays west through Kansas and eventually in eastern Colorado. Hot and dry in Greeley.
Greeley

Greeley, Colorado

We are off to northern Colorado for our forecast today. If you were wondering were the heat has been, it’s in Greeley.

At 235PM, MT, Greeley was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. The seasonal monsoon wasn’t impacting much north of the New Mexico border, and dew points along the front range were only in the 30s.
A weak upper level wave rippling through the Canadian Prairies is expected to produce an active surface wave in response. With an overriding westerly flow over the Rockies, Greeley should be stable, but with the wave to the north, dew points should tick up a bit and temperatures will be a hair cooler by the beginning of next week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 94, Low 55
Monday – Partly cloudy and a bit cooler High 90, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 93, Low 56
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 90, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot High 91, Low 54
Monday – Partly sunny High 89, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 56
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 89, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 57
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 57

You can see pn satellite that there isn’t much bubbling up in northern Colorado this afternoon. The dog days of summer have come to Colorado.
Greeley

Greeley, Colorado to Harrisonburg, Virginia

Good evening, readers and road trippers. We are getting ready for a 3 day trip from the eastern slope of one range to the eastern slope of another. It’s going to be 1637 miles between the two cities, which we will cover at a 65.8mph pace. Our first two days, then, will be over after 526.7 miles of driving. Let’s make our way across the Heartland!

DAY ONE
Greeley
Fortunately, all of the real action will be well off to our east for the first day of travel. When you get wind driven snow out in the Plains, it can be very dangerous. It’s already featureless, and if you can’t find the road ahead of you, things are mighty dangerous. The empty countryside will whip past us as we barrel eastward from Colorado into Kansas. It may be a little cooler than we would hope, but we ARE travelling in late November, so it’s not as bad as it could be. Our first day of travel will reach its conclusion in Ogden, Kansas, which is south of Manhattan.

DAY TWO
No matter which solution you follow for this week’s nasty precipitation event, they both carry the track east of our entire route on Tuesday. Barely. The drive through Kansas City and St. Louis will be problem free weatherwise, but in southern Illinois, past our split onto I-64 around Mount Vernon, Illinois, winds will really start to pick up, and a chill will come to the air. It will really start to cool off overnight in Lynnville, Indiana, overnight as we stop there after our day’s drive. Prepare to scrape windshields before we depart on Wednesday.

DAY THREE
Our good fortunes will end on Wednesday. It looks like we will be driving over freshly fallen snow as soon as we hit Louisville and head west towards West Virginia. I don’t know how well Kentucky road crews handle snow, but they are far enough south that I imagine it could be a problem. We will run into some still falling snow around Charleston, perhaps as soon as Huntington in West Virginia, and the snow will be falling for the rest of the day. Driving through show in the undulating terrain of Appalachia can be very dangerous, so stay on your toes. It will get even more frantic at the last bit of our trip, where snow will be accumulating at about an inch an hour clip on the eastern faces of the mountains along the western border of Virginia. While it should only take an hour or so, our trip through Virginia, which should take about an hour, might take 5 or 6. But hey, there might be turkey at the end of the day!
HArrisonburg