Tag Archives: Farmington

Weather Wayback… Before the drought

Earlier today, the SPC issued an extreme fire danger advisory for parts for New Mexico and Arizona, as neither location has seen much rain since the middle of February. In Farmington, where Anthony forecast on the 10th, they haven’t seen more than a trace since February 12th. Incredible to note that that .08″ they saw on that Sunday before Valentine’s Day was the last significant precipitation they saw, and we were there for the forecast. It looked to be a rainy weekend, especially by northwest New Mexico standards, but Saturday remained dry. Looking at how things have gone since then, I’ll bet they would have appreciated a little bit of rain on Saturday! For verification purposes, we can award Accuweather the top forecast for that particular February weekend.
Saturday, February 11th – High 64, Low 43
Sunday, February 12th –  .08 inches of rain, High 53, Low 37

Grade: B-C

Farmington, New Mexico

Off we go to a less-traveled to state in our forecasting universe, New Mexico! Fun fact, the Continental Divide enters Mexico through New Mexico! Now go wow your buddies at trivia night with that tidbit.

At 753pm MST, the temperature at Farmington, NM was 58 degrees under fair skies. A low pressure system is working its way through the Southwestern US right now, bringing rain and mountain snows from WY down to Central/Southern CA. It will slowly work its way into the Four Corners region on Saturday, with perhaps a couple of light showers making their way into NW New Mexico during the evening hours. There’s a better chance of rain shower activity on Sunday as it pushes further east, but the bulk of activity will continue to get held up a bit to the north and west of Farmington. The system itself will probably linger in the region for a bit as it gets cutoff along the US/Mexico border and strong high pressure takes hold over the Central US. Might not be the best weekend to be outside, but it won’t be a washout by any means.

Saturday: Cloudy, possible late evening showers. High 63, Low 39.
Sunday: Rain showers possible through early evening. High 54, Low 36.

TWC: Saturday: Cloudy. High 62, Low 40.
Sunday: Morning rain showers. High 55, Low 38.

AW: Saturday: Periods of clouds and sun. High 62, Low 42.
Sunday: Morning showers, cloudy, cooler. High 55, Low 39.

NWS: Saturday: Slight chance of rain. High 61, Low 38.
Sunday: chance of rain. High 56, Low 37.

WB: Saturday: Chance of rain. High 61, Low 43.
Sunday: Chance of storms. High 54, Low 40.

WN: Saturday: Cloudy with chance of light rain. High 61, Low 37.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 55, Low 37.

FIO: Saturday: Light rain starting in the evening. High 62, Low 40.
Sunday: Light rain until afternoon. High 54, Low 39.

Here we see the stream of clouds associated with the jet stream and related front underneath. This activity will push further over the Four Corners region as the weekend progresses.

On the upswing

The Rockies bore the brunt of last week’s cold snap just the same as their counterparts in the eastern US. At elevation, it took a little bit longer for warm air to filter back in, as was the case in Farmington. Highs in the mid-30s, such as they were on Monday, are still rather chilly for this time of year, so when the temperature climbed to almost 40 on Tuesday, it still was not sensationally warm, but merely average. East of Farmington, temperatures were skyrocketing, ending up well above normal. Despite the slow warm up, and the chilly mountain air, there was no freezing up of the forecasters. Victoria-Weather and Weatherbug nailed down the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday – High 35, Low 12
Tuesday – High 39, Low 14

Grade A-D

Morgantown, West Virginia to Farmington, New Mexico

I can assure you of one thing: Our drive over the next few days won’t be as cold as it’s been the last several days. We’re going to be cruising for 3 days, with the longest day coming on that third day, when we will take 10 hours to complete the journey. The mileage between these two cities is 1739 miles, which we will cover at a pace of 66.9mph, slowed by our start and finish in the mountains, but we will still cover 535 miles a day. Hope the heat works.

DAY ONE (Monday)

It’s going to be so much warmer tomorrow. Temperatures will be well above freezing, finally, and will be so across the entire route on Monday. High pressure is building into the Midwest, and clear skies will allow for significantly warmer temperatures to develop. There may be an increase in clouds towards the end of the day, but none that will impact our drive. The day will end in Altamont, in central Illinois.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
A system moving along the Canadian border is going to produce a southerly flow that will drive temperatures up even more. By golly, they are going to be downright tolerable! We’re going to end the day in Ellsworth, Kansas, west of Topeka.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
The slightest of perturbations moving through the Rockies 2will kick off some mountain snows in the central Rockies, and there is a chance that we see a stray flurry around Antonito in the San Juan Mountains of southern Colorado, but guidance indicates that we will be taking a good route to avoid the higher terrain in central and northern Colorado, as well as activity expected near Taos. I wouldn’t be surprised if we made it all the way to Farmington without a single bout of precipitation.

Farmington, New Mexico

Well, the promised cold is indeed here. Did it make its all the way to New Mexico, and if so, how quick is the recovery going to be?

At 753AM, MT, Farmington was reporting a temperature of 15 degrees under clear skies. Most of the region was experiencing similarly chilly temperatures, thanks mostly to the elevation of places like Cortez and Durango just to the north, where temperatures were in the single digits. Fortunately, there was no precipitation in the region to make travel difficult as well.
A sharp, tilted and high amplitude trough extends from the Dakotas to southern California, and will become even more oblong through the day today, shifting only slightly to the east.  An undercutting jet will develop in the Plains, leaving the base of the southern trough to become cut off, and the feeding and trailing jet streaks to dissipate. This won’t happen until Tuesday, which is the chance for temperatures to moderate a little bit.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 34, Low 12
Tuesday – Sunny and warmer, High 40, Low 15

TWC: A mainly sunny sky, High 35, Low 10
Tuesday – Mainly sunny, High 41, Low 13

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cold High 34, Low 9
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 40, Low 12

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 37, Low 9
Tuesday – Sunny, High 41, Low 10

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 35, Low 11
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 40, Low 13

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 9
Tuesday – Sunny, High 41, Low 10

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 39, Low 18
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 44, Low 22

You can never tell how these intermountain locations are going to go. It’s going to be clear for the beginning of the week, but there is a range of temperature forecasts. Here is the infrared satellite. The bright yellow in the Plains isn’t clouds, but actually a reflection of how cold t is at the surface. (Infrared is an image based off of cloud top temperatures. )

Warming tons in Farmington

Farmington, New Mexico underwent a fairly incredible temperature spread in the last couple of days. Although morning lows were quite chilly, sinking to the mid-20s both Friday and Saturday, the highs under a pleasant dome of high pressure will able to climb all the way to the mid-60s. The best forecasters were the ones who grasped the warm temperatures, though one, Weatherbug, also did a good job of anticipating those chilly morning lows. They were essentially the only outlet who had the right delta-T through the past two days, and secured victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 63, Low 24
Saturday – High 64, Low 28

Grade: A-D

Farmington, New Mexico

We’re headed to the 4 Corners to see what kind of weather is headed for the region. Four States, one forecast! [note… this post was already written and completed about 8 hours ago, but was consumed by the internet. Numbers updated are forecasts issued at about 8pm, CT]

At 1053AM, Mountain time, Farmington was reporting a temperature of 44 degrees with clear skies. The nation is bifurcated, with the western half of the country expecting above normal temperatures and the eastern half headed towards an arctic outbreak.
The upper level pattern is well demarcated on the water vapor imagery. This pattern will remain in place until the upper level pattern tightens up, which won’t happen until well after the forecast period has expired.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 58, Low 29
Saturday – Sunny, High 61, Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 29
Saturday – Sunny, High 64, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 61, Low 29
Saturday – Mild with plenty of sunshine High 63, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 61, Low 28
Saturday – Sunny, High 63, Low 28

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 62, Low 26
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 27

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 61, Low 28
Saturday – Mostly Sunny High 63, Low 28

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 59, Low 31
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 60, Low 32

All those numbers jumped around a little bit from the first time I did this, but not by much. Here is the current (8pm) satellite, depicting the water vapor imagery.

Farmington, New Mexico

Time for a little forecast fun in the Land of Enchantment.

At 453PM, MT, Farmington was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 82 degrees Both the local topography and temperature were helping to produce localized low pressure centers and was resulting in a somewhat breezy afternoon.
The flow aloft is beginning it’s autumnal slide into the northern US, which is helping to draw focus away from the Four Corners, and moisture will flow more aggressively into pressure centers rather than meandering into the Rockies. Breezy conditions remain possible, but Farmington should expect dry conditions. As an upper level trough slides through the Northern High Plains, expect even windier conditions.
Tomorrow – Sunny, breezy, high 91, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny and even windier High 89, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny Hgh 90, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny, High 90, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 90, Low 52
Sunday – Mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 89, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny Hgh 90, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny, High 90, Low 57

WB – Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 85, Low 55
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 90, Low 57
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 91, Lost 57

Look at the Rockies. It sure is quite a bit quieter than it’s been the last few months. Farmington

Storm steers clear of Farmington

The big weather story, which I will touch on later this evening, is an elongated boundary that stretches from Texas to the Great Lakes. The base of the responsible trough swung south of Farmington, New Mexico, and there was an opinion that it could have brought some inclement weather to the forecast site. Fortunately for those in Farmington, however, this was not the case. They saw a lower than expected drop in temperature and no precipitation. A combination of these results gave Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service a tie atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Thursday – High 55, Low 28
Friday – High 48, Low 30

Grade: C

Farmington, New Mexico to Jackson, Michigan

The weather is about to take a turn for the worst across most of the country, and we are going to take a weekend drive through the teeth of the nastiness. It will take three days to get from Farmington to Jackson, covering 1569 miles. The beginning of the drive will be mountainous, likely to slow us down, so despite a drive through the Plains, expect only 501 miles a day at a pace of 62.7mph. Let’s see just how bad things can get.

We should be able to get out of town ahead of nasty weather tomorrow morning. The base of a sharp trough is going to swing through Arizona and New Mexico, kicking up rain and mountain snow along the Arizona/New Mexico Border by midday. By that time, we will be on the eastern slope of the Colorado Rockies, clear of the snow. Cold air is going to dive in the Front Range within the upper level trough. It will be clear and cool overnight in Iliff, Colorado, in the crook of the Nebraska Pandhandle.

An area of low pressure over the southern Plains will help to generate a shaft of heavy precipitation northeastward towards Michigan. Fortunately, we will stay to the northwest of this daunting winter system as we pass through Nebraska and on to western Iowa. We will stop in Casey, Iowa, which is about half way from Omaha to Des Moines.

It won’t be long until we reach falling snow on our Sunday drive. We will likely hit the wintry conditions as we reach the east side of Des Moines, but it will really pick up as we make our way from the Quad Cities to Chicago. Naturally, the heaviest snow will be coming down as we drive through Chicago and round Lake Michigan. It will taper off a little bit after we reach Kalamazoo, but the snow will be falling on freshly fallen freezing rain. Awesome! The roads may get a little bit better as we get closer to Jackson, but it’s tough to say the roads will be anything close to “good”. Merry Christmas!