Freezing temperatures on the Gulf Coast

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I mentioned in my recent post that cold air has plunged deep into the south thanks to a broad trough with brisk flow through the attendant jet streak. They didn’t care why it was cold in Gulfport, perhaps, but they knew after a rainy day on Saturday, it certainly was chilly! in fact, Sunday evening, the low temperature dipped all the way down to 33 degrees, before going even lower after our forecast period expired. The forecast was handled pretty well, though I don’t think we properly anticipated the continued cooldown on Sunday evening. It was the National Weather Service who collected the first victory of the year, though nobody had a truly miserable time of it. Except probably the locals.
Actuals: Saturday – 1.18 inches of rain, High 58, Low 40
Sunday – High 47, Low 33

Grade: B-C

Leave it in 2024

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We had one last forecast in 2024 and it…. sucked. We forecast for the first two days of 2025, with a weak feature moving into town, ultimately becoming the behemoth that is going to cut a swath through middle America this weekend. It wasn’t much in days 1 and 2 of 2025 though, at least not in Logan, Utah. Flurries popped in on both Wednesday and Thursday, which weren’t nearly as much as anticipated, but the big surprise was the warm temperatures on Thursday, with highs climbing all the way up to 47. So much for the anticipated snow storm! Creating the top forecast was The Weather Channel, who wrapped up a very good year.
Actuals: Wednesday – .02″ of precipitation in snow, High 33, Low 19
Thursday – .01″ of precipitation in snow, High 47, Low 30

Grade: C-F

Post holiday fireworks

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In the forecast for Monroe, I described a fairly rainy scenario for Northern Louisiana on Christmas and Boxing Day, including a break in the action, at least for a short time. Well, that pause was used to prime the atmosphere for heavy thunderstorms, which dumped over an inch and a half of rain on the city. Fortunately for Monroe, while there were severe reports out of this system, they stopped before they reached the area, and when severe weather picked up again on the next day, it was all the way into Alabama. In the spirit of camaraderie around Christmas, we had a three way tie atop the leaderboard, with Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel and WeatherBug coming together for a draw.
Actuals: Christmas – .13″ of rain, High 63, Low 58
Boxing Day – 1.51″ of rain, High 66, Low 55

Grade: B-C

A comfortable pattern

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The Eastern Carolinas are just as deep into December as the rest of us, but in places like Jacksonville, December is just nicer. On the 17th and 18th, during our forecast period, it was foggy and damp, yes, but also in the 70s. And sure, there was rain, but only .01″ was recorded late on the 18th. That’s not that bad! Also not bad was the forecast put forth by the Weather Service and WeatherNation, who had top billing in this one.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 74, Low 55
Wednesday – .01 in of rain in a thunderstorm, High 70, Low 54

Grade: A-

Rain presages a cool down

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Rain was inundating the mid Atlantic when we forecast for Lancaster on the 10th. Over an inch fell on the 11th, which belied the 60 degree high temperature. Those 60s also didn’t stick around. The 12th got quite a bit chillier, about 25 degrees so, but at least it stayed dry! The forecast was handled pretty well all around, but Accuweather stood out a bit on the competition.
Actuals: December 11th, 1.14″ of rain, high 61, Low 37
December 12th, High 38, Low 24

Grade A-C

Socked in

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December started in quite the dreary manner in the Cascades. It had been foggy in Corvallis when we investigated on the 4th, and the forecast was for the fog to start breaking down a little bit. It did not. Not even a little bit. Victoria-Weather was the least optimistic, but that paid off, because it was pretty gloomy. The forecast wasn’t good for any of our forecasters, and the weather wasn’t good for any of the residents, as it never cleared out to start warming up.
Actuals: December 5th, High 36, Low 30
December 6th, High 37, Low 28

Grade: C-F

A taste of December

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We transitioned to December in the midst of our forecast period in Florence, Alabama, and for Alabama, anyways, it felt like the season was changing. Overnight lows were below freezing both on the 30th and 1st, and that’s a chill you just can’t shake if you aren’t used to it, even if the high temperature ranges up to the mid-50s, and the sun is shining in the afternoon. The brisk weather in Alabama was brisk business for Victoria-Weather, who had a top notch forecast and won the day.
Actuals: November 30th – High 52, Low 34
December 1st – High 55, Low 30

Grade: A-D

You call that a cold front?

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You may have been a party to the nasty Thanksgiving Day weather from the Great Lakes to the New England, but Fort Smith got in on the action before it was cool — Quite literally. The feature originated in the middle of the country, and in it’s infancy, only ha a weak cold pool that barely stirred things up in the Ozarks on Monday. There iwas a splash of rain, but the high on Monday was nearly exactly the same as it was on Tuesday. Of course, the overnight lows shifted by a dozen degrees (Keeping in mind that the low listed for Monday was at the end of the day, rather than at dawn as it usually is), and it was in the 70s on Sunday, so there was a bit of a sea change for Fort Smith. It didn’t get as cold as it would elsewhere, and the moisture was much less than it was for points northeastward. Victoria-Weather had a pretty good forecast to take home the victory
Actuals: Monday .01 inches of rain, High 58, Low 39
Tuesday – High 58, Low 32

Grade: A-C

Ah, how things change

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It’s 8 days since we put together the forecast for Midland, and I can tell you that most of the country is now much cooler than it was last week. The 80 degrees I see in the forecast verification are of a bygone era. It’s in the 50s now in Midland. Proving that things are constantly changing, though, Midland will be back up in the 8os this weekend. The forecast from last Thursday was fairly simple, with warm air, and warming overnight lows to start the weekend. Decent forecasts were had by all, the best came from Weatherbug.
Actuals: Friday – High 80, Low 46
Saturday – High 80, Low 57

Grade: A-B

The right side of the range

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This is a purely subjective take, that Carson City was on the right side of the Sierra Nevada range at the end of the week. I am not a big fan of snow, and most of it fell on the western exposures during our Thursday – Friday forecast. There were trace amounts of precipitation in Carson City during our forecast period, but the heavier activity was up by Lake Tahoe. You know, where snow lovers can keep it to themselves. Rain started falling in Carson City just before midnight which really threw things askance for our forecast grades, and ultimately led to a shared victory between the unlikely duo of Weatherbug and WeatherNation.
Actuals: Thursday – rain reported, not measured, High 55, Low 37
Friday – Mix reported, not measured, High 41, low 30

Grade C-D