Avoiding any activity in Athens

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For the weekend, Athens found itself at the coming together of a large ridge of high pressure and an area of low pressure. On shore flow was at it’s peak, and rising moisture seemed likely. Some outlets though rain was coming, but in the end, there wasn’t enough moisture. A surface trough oscillated away from Athens, which took away any trigger for wet weather, but the high overcast still worked to prevent warm temperatures. The Weather Service had the top forecast in town, thanks to a solid appreciation of the temperature trends.
Actuals: Saturday, High 79, Low 58
Sunday, High 71, Low 62

Grade A-C

Human input

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With a wave of energy coming off the Gulf of Alaska, it seemed possible that Portland would see some rain on the 23rd. The model guidance had it, and the outlets that lean a bit more closely on extracting data explicitly from models included it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather was the only man powered forecaster to include it. Ultimately, Portland didn’t see any rain. Score one for the old fashioned way. The Weather Channel secured victory, while Accuweather collected their third 2nd place in a row!
Actuals: October 23rd, High 58, Low 43
October 24th, High 60, Low 39

Grade: A-C

It was rain

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The forecast in the middle of October for Binghamton was our first forecast for the season where anyone mentioned snow. It turned out, there were no flakes in Binghamton, but the temperature forecasts were nevertheless quite good. WeatherNation had the top forecast, but nobody should be embarrassed by their output.
October 16th – .05 inches of rain, High 46, Low 36
October 17th – High 55, Low 36

Grade: A-B

Idaho Falls, now with a variety of verifications

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The forecasts for Idaho Falls at the end of the month were all over the map. Instead of falling somewhere in the middle of the group, the weather instead found itself on the cool side, particularly with low temperatures on October 1st. The sub freezing temperatures were forecast by only one outlet — Victoria-Weather. Forecasters were way too warm otherwise, and Victoria-Weather won fairly easily.
Actuals: September 30th, High 64, Low 42
October 1st, High 73, Low 31

Grade: A-D

Lingering Lake Michigan Moisture

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A cold front moved through the Great Lakes as the month of September ended. It wasn’t very rainy, but behind it, some of that lake moisture was suspended over Lower Michigan. Temperatures on the final day of September didn’t echo the overwhelmingly warm month for a lot of the country in Lansing, as fog and low clouds from the Lakes kept temperatures in the low 70s, about 5 degrees cooler than most anticipated. Some did anticipate it, though, like Accuweather, who put together a very good forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .04 inches of rain High 78, Low 62
Monday – High 71, Low 56

Grade: A-C

Forecasts CAN be too warm

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It’s important to remember as we finally seem to be departing the summer, that sometimes, temperatures end up colder than we expect. That was the case in Glens Falls towards the end of September. Temperatures were a few degrees colder than every outlet’s high temperature forecast on the 24th and 25th, respectively, and the low was on the cold end of the low temperature forecasts as well. This is something to remember as we approach fall. It’s not summer all the time. The Weather Channel had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: September 24th, High 68, Low 43
September 25th, .42″ of rain, High 58, Low 51

Grade: B-C

Competitors and also rans

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Two things were true about the weather in Visalia early this week. First, it was miserably hot, hitting 106 on Monday and tempering a bit to something more livable, hitting 99 on Tuesday. Second, because of the clear skies and somewhat dry air, temperatures cooled off to a much more reasonable level overnight. Everyone knew it would be hot, but only three outlets, The Weather Channel, Accuweather and Victoria-Weather (in that order) accounted for it, while the other 4 were out in left field, also rans, as it were. I want to be clear, though, with temperatures like this, nobody should be doing any running.
Actuals: Monday, High 106, Low 66
Tuesday, High 99, Low 64

Grade A-C

Eugene falls on the warm side

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Eugene sits in the higher terrain of western Oregon, and on either side of the Cascades, it can be cool and damp along the coast, and hot and dry inland from the Cascades, and that’s how it looked to go over the last couple of days. So what did Eugene end up representing? Inland Oregon, it seems, as high temperatures exceeded any forecast, hitting 90 on Sunday an the upper 80s on Monday. On the plus side, because it was so dry, low temperatures were cool and comfortable. Temperatures sunk a lot of forecasts, and Accuweather came out on top with the warmest forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 90, Low 57
Monday – High 87, Low 49

Grade: C-F

A healthy drink on a ruined weekend afternoon

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Unlike yesterday’s verification in Evansville, Glens Falls got exactly what they expected – a healthy smack in the chin from a rainy system that ultimately changed up the air mass in eastern New York. A cold front arrived in town around mid-afternoon on Saturday (thanks for that, Mother Nature) and immediately sank temperatures, before they could get too sweltering. Ultimately, it was a pretty good soaker as well, with over 3/4ths of an inch falling. Victoria-Weather was the top dog in the Empire State.
Actuals: Friday, High 80, Low 50
Saturday, .79″ of rain, High 71, Low 54

Grade: B – C

Small relief

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A short wave rippled through the northern tier, bringing cooler air to a lot of the country late last week. We felt it here in the Upper Midwest, it eventually arrived as far as New England, but it sure didn’t show up during our verification for Evansville. The boundary was supposed to arrive in Evansville on Friday evening, bringing some cooling temperatures and brisk winds. The rain never came, and the temperatures stayed in the 90s instead. Victoria-Weather played down the rain chances, but the Weather Service and Clime had strong temperature forecasts, and anticipated a slow arrival to the cold front.
Actuals: Thursday, High 92, Low 65
Friday – High 90, Low 67

Grade: A-C