An overstated threat

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Weather information receivers, the general public, expects perfection for their specific spot every time. That said, everyone had forecast for rain in the Quad Cities on Saturday. We knew in spots it would be heavy, and nearly everyone called that out. The Upper Mississippi Valley indeed saw some showers, but it was only .06″ worth of rain in Davenport, though places around there saw more. Is it a problem, then, that they didn’t see more in Davenport, when most outlets suspected it? Probably for some people. Not for me, either. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 65, Low 35
Saturday .06″ of rain, High 54, Low 41

Grade: A-C

A grand unveiling

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It was very foggy the last two mornings in Rocky Mount. Tuesday, the sky didn’t clear until nearly 11, but on Wednesday, it cleared a bit earlier. All this led to a warmer afternoon high, and the all important Vitamin D infusion. There was no rain, despite a little bit of moisture flowing in, all of which brought about the morning fog. Accuweather had rain in the forecast, and despite this, the temperature forecast was good enough to give them the victory.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 79, Low 51
Wednesday, High 82, Low 53

Grade: A-C

Cool consistency

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It’s not often I get to put together a forecast for Phoenix and the high comes nowhere near double digits, but that was the cast this week. Temperatures rose only to the low 70s under a strong upper level trough, and the low were as cool as the low 50s. Each day was a near carbon copy of the other one, so that consistent Phoenix forecast strategy worked wonders, even as temperatures were much cooler than one would normally anticipate in the Arizona capital. It was Weatherbug who put together the top forecast for the day, and a good one it was.
Actuals: Monday – High 72, Low 52
Tuesday – High 73, Low 51

Grade: A-B

Results from Wisconsin

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Racine was a rainy place on election day. There was lighter fare on Monday as well, but 3/4″ of rain came to the southeast Wisconsin city on Tuesday, which really put a damper on things in the state. Cold air moved in behind the rain this morning, leading to a foggy situation in the northern Plains. Also, it slowed the cooldown across Wisconsin, with the low temperature for Tuesday settling about halfway between what the outlets who have extended hourly temperature outlooks and those that don’t had for their Tuesday low. This was a boon for the Weather Channel, who narrowly won the forecast, having only 1 degree of error elsewhere.
Actuals: Tuesday – .17 inches of rain, High 67, Low 58
Wednesday – .78 inches of rain, High 67, low 56

Grade: B-C

Avoiding any activity in Athens

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For the weekend, Athens found itself at the coming together of a large ridge of high pressure and an area of low pressure. On shore flow was at it’s peak, and rising moisture seemed likely. Some outlets though rain was coming, but in the end, there wasn’t enough moisture. A surface trough oscillated away from Athens, which took away any trigger for wet weather, but the high overcast still worked to prevent warm temperatures. The Weather Service had the top forecast in town, thanks to a solid appreciation of the temperature trends.
Actuals: Saturday, High 79, Low 58
Sunday, High 71, Low 62

Grade A-C

Human input

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With a wave of energy coming off the Gulf of Alaska, it seemed possible that Portland would see some rain on the 23rd. The model guidance had it, and the outlets that lean a bit more closely on extracting data explicitly from models included it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather was the only man powered forecaster to include it. Ultimately, Portland didn’t see any rain. Score one for the old fashioned way. The Weather Channel secured victory, while Accuweather collected their third 2nd place in a row!
Actuals: October 23rd, High 58, Low 43
October 24th, High 60, Low 39

Grade: A-C

It was rain

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The forecast in the middle of October for Binghamton was our first forecast for the season where anyone mentioned snow. It turned out, there were no flakes in Binghamton, but the temperature forecasts were nevertheless quite good. WeatherNation had the top forecast, but nobody should be embarrassed by their output.
October 16th – .05 inches of rain, High 46, Low 36
October 17th – High 55, Low 36

Grade: A-B

Idaho Falls, now with a variety of verifications

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The forecasts for Idaho Falls at the end of the month were all over the map. Instead of falling somewhere in the middle of the group, the weather instead found itself on the cool side, particularly with low temperatures on October 1st. The sub freezing temperatures were forecast by only one outlet — Victoria-Weather. Forecasters were way too warm otherwise, and Victoria-Weather won fairly easily.
Actuals: September 30th, High 64, Low 42
October 1st, High 73, Low 31

Grade: A-D

Lingering Lake Michigan Moisture

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A cold front moved through the Great Lakes as the month of September ended. It wasn’t very rainy, but behind it, some of that lake moisture was suspended over Lower Michigan. Temperatures on the final day of September didn’t echo the overwhelmingly warm month for a lot of the country in Lansing, as fog and low clouds from the Lakes kept temperatures in the low 70s, about 5 degrees cooler than most anticipated. Some did anticipate it, though, like Accuweather, who put together a very good forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .04 inches of rain High 78, Low 62
Monday – High 71, Low 56

Grade: A-C

Forecasts CAN be too warm

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It’s important to remember as we finally seem to be departing the summer, that sometimes, temperatures end up colder than we expect. That was the case in Glens Falls towards the end of September. Temperatures were a few degrees colder than every outlet’s high temperature forecast on the 24th and 25th, respectively, and the low was on the cold end of the low temperature forecasts as well. This is something to remember as we approach fall. It’s not summer all the time. The Weather Channel had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: September 24th, High 68, Low 43
September 25th, .42″ of rain, High 58, Low 51

Grade: B-C