11:05PM: The Mid Atlantic track of our tropical season has made for a very dull time in the southeast. Without clouds, temperatures are a degree or two warmer than normal, to go along with dry conditions. Fortunately, perhaps, there is rain coming for parts of north Florida and south Georgia and Alabama on Friday. That might be nice.

2:07PM: A sure sign of high pressure in the middle of the country is an inversion. This means temperatures don’t continuously get colder as you go up, which traps air nearer the surface, and can make for an icky atmosphere. Such is the case in St. Louis, where there are air quality alerts today.

10:45PM: The pattern isn’t particularly strong, but that means what is there is just kind of hanging out. A weak area of low pressure centered over the Nebraska/South Dakota border is going to kick up showers over the central Plains, and it will keep on accumulating. Impressive in it’s persistence.

9:35AM: In the absence of any major synoptic scale features over the central CONUS (the big feature is a stalled boundary over the Florida Peninsula), the real weather maker is the general topography of the US. There area already some showers over the Rockies, and westerly flow across the mountains will lead to a it of localized low pressure in the lee. Without much upper level support, it will be like my Uncle Jack and never really make much of itself.

8:16PM: I should note that the area of low pressure that I mentioned in today’s earlier post is also draping a cold front across the Florida that is in essence single handedly scrubbing any drought concerns the area has. It’s also the only thing even close to interesting in the hurricane zones of the CONUS. I ain’t mad.

9:59PM: I told you cold snaps don’t last!

6:47PM: It’s a pretty quiet stretch out west, even in the Rockies, where we might reasonably expect some afternoon thunderstorm activity this time of year. Instead, we are seeing the Rockies work as a pretty formidable dry line. As the jet shifts back up to the north a little bit, don’t be surprised to see some activity return to the mountains. That could happen as soon as Wednesday, and would also coincide with the Great Lakes finally drying out. (Not the lakes, but the towns surrounding them).

1130PM: There is a pretty gnarly looking cluster of thunderstorms, that, if nothing else, is producing a heck of a lot of lightning in the Clovis, New Mexico area. It would be jarring for a lot of places, but this qualifies as run of the mill for this time of year in this part of the country. Do they sleep along the Texas/New Mexico border?

4:12PM: The images our of southeast Wisconsin have been something else. Flash flooding has come to the region thanks to slow moving, high precipitation storms, moving through high population areas. That same set up is still stretched across the south side of Lake Michigan. There are flash flood watches and warnings over Chicago, particularly on the south side of town.

8:03PM: It’s been a quite humid year, if you haven’t been around…. or if you live in the Great Basin. Nevada, most specifically, has been quite a bit less humid than it is typically this summer.

9:20PM: Dew points are still high in Arkansas… but not as high as they’ve been! They are even in the 60s in the Ozarks tonight. This likely has something to do with the outflow from storms to the northwest, because dew points aren’t that low elsewhere.

11:01: This is pretty much what an August 10th severe weather outlook is supposed to look like. Nothing particularly noteworthy, save for the expanse that the storm activity is covering.

8:54PM: This is from the NWS – Wilmington, OH. A lot of our past few posts have focused on humidity, and, well….

9:33PM: Look at these monster cells surrounding Goodland, Kansas. Big hail is the big concern.

1159PM: Those storms noted in the prior update are along a boundary best illustrated by the dew points. It’s still in the 70s across our prior forecast region of Pine Bluff, and it is in the 50s to the north of this thunderstorm activity. I think if there is one complaint about these storms it is that they aren’t moving fast enough.

10:52PM: This is a very late summer pattern right now, with severe weather most prominent in the northern High Plains, day after day. There is a slight risk 3 of the next four days (including today) that covers some part of the Dakotas. They’ve recently had some dry summers, so it isn’t all bad!