7:15PM: We are headed towards Halloween at the end of the week, and whether you like it or not, the weather looks to be on the warm side for a lot of the country. The core of the most above normal warmth looks to be around the Rockies, where Salt Lake City is looking at temperatures around 60 degrees. Trick or Treat!

8:15PM Hurricane Melissa’s eye has cleared Jamaica. The storm has been weakened a bit, but is still a strong storm, now readying to landfall in eastern Cuba. Melissa will weaken further over Cuba, and then will impact the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos islands.

10:18PM: Well, the good news in northern Indiana is that light rain we were eyeballing in the forecast for Elkhart is on the way out. The bad news is that a feature in Texas may be a bit more virulent than anticipated initially, and could bring a spot of light rain to the area overnight tonight. Better than severe weather, though, as is being seen in the Lone Star State tonight!

9:55PM: At long last, we are back in action! The trend has been towards cool weather across the country. It’s in the 40s for highs along the northern tier, and if it isn’t down there yet, it will be soon. A particularly effective cold front is coming for New England. Even without prodigious rain, it will bring temperatures down to something more autumnal. Sorry!

11:06PM: Just think, in a few weeks, this would all be snow. Well, actually not. All these light radar returns are actually upwind from the Great Lakes, which, as any local might be able to tell you, is not how Lake Effect Snow works.

1033PM: Oh, hey, it does look like indeed the SPC will continue to operate during the shut down. There is severe weather possible for the middle of the country, as far northeast as Paducah, Kentucky.

12:19PM: Without showing you the temperature or the radar again, here is another map that proves cold air is bellowing in behind the front in the middle of the country. Yes, those are winter weather alerts and advisories in western North Dakota and the central Rockies.

12:38AM: We’ve been talking about the tropics a lot lately, because this is the time of year we usually think about the tropics, had a forecast in Gulfport recently, and frankly, I’m going on vacation soon. Anyways, here is a late night reminder: Don’t put much stock in projections that are more than about 5 days out. There has been a potential tropical feature doing the hokey pokey in the models from the Bahamas to the Gulf late next week. (Right now, it has taken its whole self out)

9:12PM: The change from above normal temperatures to something that is a bit closer in line to what we would expect this time of year is from about Houghton, Michigan to Dodge City, Kansas. Demarcated below.

7:05PM: I’m not saying to panic, but I am saying to watch this orange area. The long term track keeps pulling it further eastward (away from the US), but still, keep vigilant.

2:36PM It’s been very quiet nationwide, enough so that we have been focusing a lot of attention on a couple of storms in the Atlantic that have been pretty safely at sea. The first inkling of a changing pattern from the heat that has engulfed much of the middle of the country comes from Bismarck.

This will be a pretty decent little area of low pressure in the Dakotas, and will usher in cool air and a more active pattern for the eastern US, which should take us into the middle of October.

10:08PM: It’s getting cooler out there, absolutely, and even amid hot spells, there is one sure way to know that the atmosphere is chilling out. Cloud bases are getting lower. I had to keep looking at the radar to ensure it wasn’t about to rain today because of the lower deck of cumulus clouds.