It is the beginning of the year, and already we have had our first notable severe weather outbreak. With the strong storms pounding the west, it was only a matter of time before the cold air wrought havoc when making contact with the more sultry air east of the Rockies.
Tornadoes left a path of damage in Alabama and Georgia over the weekend, including a tornado that led to the deaths of at least 6 west of Montgomery. The strong areas of low pressure have drawn unstable air as north as Iowa, where the first January tornado was reported there since 1986. Now, a strong storm is expected to leave a foot of snow in the northern High Plains.
It will be the tornado that struck Selma, Alabama that will be remembered the most out of this town, striking a town so closely associated with the Civil Rights Movement on the weekend that celebrates one its greatest champions, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. The tornado went through the heart of the city, just north of the down town area and the Edmund Pettus Bridge, damaging homes, churches and businesses throughout the city. StormChasingVideo provides a look at the city and nearby Autauga in the aftermath of the tornado.
As long as cold air resides in the west, feeding into much warmer air east of the Rockies, there will be a threat that storm systems could amplify quickly and dangerously. The snow storm in the Dakotas and Nebraska today will ultimately lead to an additional threat for severe weather in the Mississippi Valley later the is week. The long term outlook, for a cold wet west indicates an active winter in the south as well.
Strictly speaking, this is our first forecast of 2023! Finally! We’re going to cover a road trip through the Southeast, which will cover merely one day, but it will be a full 8+hour day that entails 522 miles. We will pace ourselves at about 63mph, slowed by some back roads and certainly by Atlanta.
Tallahassee, Florida
It’s pretty quiet in the southeastern US right now, and that might lead intended travelers to think they have a good shot at getting quickly out of town and on the road. Not so fast. Surface low pressure in the Panhandle region will shift into the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight and really absorb a lot of the moisture. What is a non story tonight will quickly become active, bringing rain to Morristown by lunch time. The threat for wet weather will start on the drive, likely northwest of Atlanta, and between Marietta and Calhoun, the brunt of the cold front will arrive, with thunderstorms and wind likely. North of the boundary, it will be cooler, but still windy and a little rainy. This can get dicey in the undulations of eastern Tennessee, so be careful northeast from Chattanooga on slick roads. After a long, stormy day… Morristown!
There are phrases that have been around the meteorological lexicon for years, and then get adopted into the media, and become part of what many find to be a sensationalized parlance. The polar vortex stands out to me, as does the bomb cyclone. These are real, definable things that suddenly take on a more ominous tone because they are uttered on the news regularly.
Right now, we are hearing about the “Atmospheric River”. Allow me to show you what that result of the atmospheric river is on satellite. It’s unusual, I think, to look at satellite over the north Pacific, because it isn’t somewhere we usually look at, and the perspective is a tad wonky, but here it is.
And that, boxed in red, is an area of low pressure, showing off the typical comma shaped cold front with a little warm front evidenced as angling towards San Francisco Bay. It’s not particularly unusual, but the discussion surrounding this feature is probably amplified by the persistent drought, which has rendered rainmakers rare over the last several years, and ongoing concerns over climate change flaring anxiety over every weather phenomenon.
The jet, in response to oceanic circulations, tends to rise and form a ridge at the California Coast, leading to the semi permanent Gulf of Alaska low (which feeds moisture into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest with regularity) and a semi permanent area of surface high pressure west of the Baja Peninsula. In the winter, the jet is more apt to dig a little bit further south, because the cold California coastal waters don’t cause the atmosphere to differ as extensively as happens in the summer, and that coastal ridge can break down.
So the jet sinks south, and a regular old area of low pressure moves into California. It is coming off the ocean, so it will be laden with moisture, and it is interacting with the terrain, so it will dump a lot of precipitation, especially in the Sierras. This will do a lot of work in refilling dried reservoirs as the snow melts in the spring, and is how California usually maintains a sustainable quality of life. The southern source of the jet has led, in the past, to some “atmospheric rivers” to be dubbed “the Pineapple Express”.
All they are, really, is a more southerly jet that brings consequential weather to the West Coast. he phenomenon isn’t strange, but the location is, made a little bit more unusual by the recent climatology.
We’ve made it through 2022, and are looking forward to 2023. The end of the year saw The Weather Channel claim the final prize, though the newly retired Forecast.io was close behind. The Forecast.io site is already shuttered, and there are widespread lamentations over the DarkSky app. After the few years we’ve used that site as one our verification comparables, I can confirm that it was one of the easiest to use, and most readable, accessible outputs. On the other hand, it was consistently the least accurate, proving the continued value of meteorologists inserting their input in the process. In fact, despite Forecast.io’s strong end, it was the worst outlet of the year, and it wasn’t close. Alternately, the National Weather Service was abominable in December, but were the top forecast of the year. They had a steady hand throughout the season, racking up only the third most individual forecast wins of the year, but still won the year’s title. It was made closer by their sloppy end, but the first 11 months were so good, it didn’t matter. Congrats to the Weather Service on their year, and a Happy 2023 to everyone!
My parents live part of the year in south Florida, due east of Fort Myers Beach, which was among the hardest hit areas by Hurricane Ian this September, along with Sanibel Island. Inland, in places like Estero, Bonita Springs and the south side of Fort Myers, the lack of coastline prevented the storm surge and flooding that proved so catastrophic to Fort Myers Beach, wiping the beloved Time Square shopping area off the map.
Southwest Florida had a very good run, avoiding hurricanes for a very long time. That was true until 2017, actually, when, after battering the Caribbean and the Florida Keys, Hurricane Irma made landfall at Marco Island, and moved through the Peninsula from south to north. Ian made landfall further to the north, and was more specifically aimed at the Fort Myers area.
There was a grove of palm trees that I particularly admired the first time I was down there, about 10 years ago. 3 royal palms stood near the pin of one of the short holes of the course, and were a photogenic and stately landmark at the facility. I took a picture and had it as my phone background for a while.
Trust me, they were stately. This is a screen shot of a years old picture, and don’t do them justice. 5 years after this picture was taken, Irma came to pass. Irma decimated the foliage of Estero. The tree cover was significantly less around the facility, and what trees weren’t taken down were defoliated. Cypresses were laid bare, and stood out the most. The palms that weren’t felled stood proud. Of that trio, that was the case.
Only one of the palms survived Irma, and the tall palm in the trees behind the stand, for example, was also lost. But this pine stood as a stately welcome and a great object to aim at from the tee box.
Ian was a different beast. The damage with Ian produced more structural damage. My parents’ building was ok, though the carport was destroyed. Throughout the town, there are still tarps on roofs. Even buildings adjacent to their facility had unrepaired roof damage. The most noticeable damage to a visitor was in the signs for various venues. There was a Waffle Us and a Chi i around town, with letters gone and yet unrepaired. Still more signs were completely decimated, living only a ring where a corporate brand had once been.
That remaining palm though, stood tall. He definitely looks worse for wear, and is a stoic reminder of what Irma and Ian have wrought on the region.
A massive feature moving through the center of the country, the second this month, is bringing blizzard conditions to the Northern Plains, but it will be remembered for quite some time for the path of destruction it is weaving across the southern US.
The storms started yesterday, with tornadoes striking the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, including causing 5 injuries at a Sam’s Club and mall in Grapevine.
Check out some of the photos of damage from storms around the DFW area earlier this morning. The Grapevine, TX mall sustained extensive damage and an apparent tornado in Decatur sent wood through the door of a pickup truck! pic.twitter.com/NOKYB8cH3a
There were even more tragic consequences south of Shreveport, where tornadoes claimed the lives of two near Keachi as the tornado swept through some mobile homes. There was another prominent cluster of tornado reports between Monroe, Louisiana and Vicksburg, Mississippi. Fortunately, only one injury was reported there.
The storm carried on today, and started early. Storms fired early, and slightly to the southeast of Tuesday’s storm activity. Storms were seen in Mississippi through much of the day, before tornadoes struck throughout the city of New Orleans. Fortunately, none appear to have been major tornadoes, but they struck impoverished, poorly soiled and urban areas, so damage has been great.
Reports specifically have come out of Gretna and the Algiers and Arabi neighborhoods of New Orleans. Arabi was clipped by a tornado earlier this year, doubling down on bad luck for New Orleans. A tornado watch and the threat thereof continue this evening in the Florida Panhandle and south Georgia. Tornadoes were also noted northeast of Apalachicola today.
An impressive jet trough digging into the middle of the country is urging the helicity necessary to produce these tornadoes, and sustain them over the course of several days. In addition, the depth of this trough is allowing the cold air necessary to clash with the marine air as far south as New Orleans. The base of the trough is going to continue to shift to the east, taking with it the threat of continued severe weather, aside from some early straight line winds in north Florida tomorrow.
We are a couple of days from the end of the month, but with a handful of forecasts coming up, and a looming threat of severe weather coming tomorrow, I thought we might as well grab some time now to reward the top forecaster from the past month. The top spot this month belonged to the fine folks at the National Weather Service, who took the prize, thanks to good old fashioned consistency.
After a relatively docile November, the end of the month is going to provide quite a bit of climactic intrigue. Low pressure is already spiraling through the Rust Belt on it’s way to New England. It will make for a wet trek home from Thanksgiving for a lot of people, and even includes some rumbles of thunder in western Pennsylvania, and will likely bring snow to interior New England this evening.
This storm is a hassle, definitely, but a real show is massing in the northern Plains. The next trough is going to dip to the south and give rise to a strong area of low pressure developing in the middle of the country. Things will really come together on Tuesday evening, seemingly from nothing.
The center of low pressure will slide north of the Canadian Border on Tuesday, with a slow moving cold front extending from southern Minnesota to the Denver area, with snow showers expected along the boundary on Tuesday. As the feature shifts into Manitoba, things will really take off. Moisture will start flowing northward as the low taps into the Gulf, while an undercutting area of low pressure emerges in the mid Mississippi Valley. This will lead to some higher output snow bands on the northeastern stretch of the low. Some spots from southeastern Minnesota to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan will see 6+ inches of accumulation.
Also, with the atmospheric machinations and additional moisture, there is a looming threat for severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley. The undercutting low will produce a cold front of it’s own, and this will be the focal point for severe weather. Strong straight line winds are going to be a wide ranging problem, but the twisting and turning of flow in the region will also induce an seasonably high tornado threat.
The highest threat will be around sunset, just before and after, stretching from the Bootheel of Missouri to about Natchez, Mississippi. I would expect some supercellular storms in eastern Arkansas and northeast Louisiana, putting places like Monroe, Louisiana at risk for tornadoes. Things will aggregate into a line, bringing a more widespread straightline wind threat to western Tennessee and Mississippi, though embedded tornadoes are still going to be possible through the evening. The severe threat won’t last into the night, but rain and storms will be an issue in Alabama, Georgia and most of the eastern Seaboard on Wednesday.
The target area for severe weather is pictured below by the SPC.
It’s definitely going to be a nasty day for a lot of people on Tuesday, whether it be the snow in the north, the severe weather to the south, or the cold rain in between.
We are two days before Thanksgiving, and if you are like me, and many people are, you are going to be traveling. The biggest travel period starts today, with return trips coming from Friday through the weekend.
Today and this afternoon, most of the country is going to be great for taking the trek to see family and loved ones. The exception is the Pacific Northwest, where a round of mountain snow and rain across Puget Sound could make any passages across the Cascades tricky. If you are in Seattle and have loved ones in Yakima, make sure to check conditions in Snoqualmie before you head out!
The rough weather in Washington will be short lived, though, and tomorrow looks even better for travel. There will be a bit of a return flow through the Red River Valley which may mean some light rain in Dallas, while the snow seen in Washington will diminish to just a few mountain flakes in the northern Rockies of Montana and Wyoming.
These two features portend a trickier trek home, however. The combination of low pressure emerging in the northern Plains and moisture arriving in the southern Plains are going to fuel rain and thunderstorms from the Piney Woods to the Lower Mississippi Valley by the time dinner wraps up on Thanksgiving. Storms could get a little heavy from Corpus Christi to Houston, so be on the look out deep in Texas.
Black Friday will be a gray Friday across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Persistent rain and thunderstorms will be possible from Louisiana to Mississippi and steadily increase eastward to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. On the back side of this feature, I wouldn’t rule out some snow mixing around Lubbock and Lawton. On the north end, a cold front dangling from CAnada will move from northeast Minnesota and charge east towards the Great Lakes and ultimately land in New England by evening. It should be warm enough that rain will fall in the Great Lakes, but don’t be surprised to see snow in northern New England on Friday evening.
The low pressure bringing snow potentials to Texas will fill with warmer air, and tamp out the snow threat. Still, rain, heavy at times, will become increasingly likely through the mid Mississippi Valley eastward to Virginia, the Carolinas and Georgia. The steadiest wet weather right now seems to be seeking out St. Louis and Kansas City, but it’s too early to stake this forecast out as gospel truth.
This whole feature is going to really get ugly overnight Saturday into Sunday. It will start to draw on colder air from Canada and the Gulf Stream to ramp up rain and wind. Expect a very rainy start to Sunday from Cape Cod to the Delmarva as what is likely the year’s first Nor’Easter gets organized. Fortunately, it’s likely too warm to be a snow event, but the wind and cold rain will still be unpleasant enough. Rain falling on Buffalo may also lead to some urban flooding.
This system will blast through New England by the time night falls, fortunately, but it will leave behind that cold, windy weather that can only mean that the glad tidings of Thanksgiving are over, and winter is replacing autumn. Elsewhere, the travel period will end as it is starting: snow in the Cascades, but not much else.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. Safe travels!
The beginning of winter and the approach of spring are tenuous times for the Great Lakes. With a cold November interacting with yet unfrozen lakes, all it takes is a persistent wind to lead to some particularly impressive snow totals. Suburban Buffalo is in the crosshairs for those kinds of numbers.
The snow is supposed to be heavy enough and at such a time that due to safety concerns for he fans, the Buffalo Bills home game has been moved to Detroit for the weekend. Orchard Park, home of the Bills, is south of that 21.4″ forecast in the city of Buffalo, and could be inline for nearly 3 more feet of snow. (This forecast is for snow on top of what has already been received.)
What is wild about this, is the synoptic outlook for the region, and really the country. Sure, there is low pressure in eastern Canada driving the west-southwest flow off of Lake Erie but there isn’t a lot of atmospheric moisture attendant to the feature.
Buffalo, and Watertown in the same position, just northeast of Lake Ontario, are simply in the wrong place, withstanding a full fetch off their respective Great Lake. Fortunately, much of the rest of the country, excepting the Gulf Coast, where rain is likely tonight, is headed for a pretty quiet travel weekend. Unless you are heading to Buffalo.
