Spring is known for being as damp as it is rejuvenating. We accept how sloppy the month is because we know it is going to bring about some momentous changes to the landscape. Well get ready, friends, because most of the country is going to be on the wet sides through the latter half of the month.
Everywhere but the west coast is looking for a rainy stretch from late this week and on to next week. There aren’t any extreme bullseyes, but even Alaska and Hawaii are going to see extra rain fall.
This, along with warm air forecast to build out east is a preponderance of “Texas Hookers” in the next couple of weeks. Generally, this would mean a broad and deep trough over the Plains. Surface low pressure starting in the southern Plains will rocket towards the Great Lakes, bringing hot, sticky weather in he warm sector, and apparently, rain everywhere.
It wasn’t a particularly snowy year in the middle of the country, which often limits the threat for downstream flooding in the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. The Missouri looks to be ok this season, but the Mississippi is spilling it’s banks in some places, or is expected to soon in others.
If you are a budding cartographer, you will note that the major flood stage pink squares extend away from the Mississippi. It’s the Ohio that is the origin for some of these flood waters, thanks to the persistent seen in our very active March. You will note that rivers are high in a southwest to northeast line from east Texas to western Michigan, aligned with the track of our storms last month.
While all that rain isn’t directly over the Ohio, it would be over the Green, Cumberland and Tennessee River, all of which flow into the Ohio. Parts of downtown Louisville have been underwater thanks to the flooding. As this article notes, we are approaching Louisville’s biggest tourism season, and a flood clean up will be a difficult challenge.
As the region attempts to dry out, we are looking at a pretty dry week. This will help flood waters down river rise and fall without too many consequences. Hopefully this is the last of the river flood season.
It was a good month for Weatherbug. I am a huge fan of their updated interface, and I guess you dress good you feel good, because their month of forecasting was very successful. They had half of the overall victories in the month, which is a pretty good way to win the forecaster of the month award. It’s a turnaround after a slow start to the year, but it was well earned. Congrats!
As I noted in our look ahead earlier today, we have a high risk for severe weather in the mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. We can go through full severe seasons without a high risk, so this is notable.
Storms are beginning to crop up. There have been some severe storms along the cold front, including tornadoes from Illinois to Arkansas, but all eyes are on the Memphis area, where supercells are popping up in west Tennessee and northern Mississippi, including a confirmed twister near Jackson, TN. Follow along with ABC 24’s live stream
We’ve started off busy this spring, with several rounds of severe weather, marked by organization and intensity. While storms, particularly tomorrow, stand to be nasty at times, the remarkable thing is how broad the coverage of this weather is expected to be.
The enhanced risk covers over 240,000 square miles, and features, initially a hail threat in the southwestern portion of the risk early in the day, transitioning to some supercells with a tornado threat centralized along the Ohio downriver from Louisville to the Mississippi south to Greenville, Mississippi. Ultimately, the cells will merge into lines, and strong wind in the southern Great Lakes will be the threat.
The upper level pattern features a broad trough over the middle of the country, setting the stage for broad instability. A couple of short waves at the upper levels will produce more focused inclement weather, and the bullseyes in different areas.
As with any nasty weather, it all depends on where it hits. The biggest thing about this system is that it is big, but the top end energy isn’t going to match some of the storms we’ve seen earlier this month. The geographic scope of the weather means it will be a headline maker, as well as a headache maker for anyone trying to travel.
More rough stuff is expected on Monday along the East Coast. The weather, again, looks to be weaker, but more people, more travelers will be impacted than even tomorrow.
What are the signs of spring that you look for? If you are a normal person, you are likely looking for that first robin to land in your front yard, or for the daffodils to start blooming. If you are a meteorologist or weather super fan, you are on the look out for big, multifaceted storms rumbling through the middle of the country. I can’t speak to the daffodils in your neighborhood, but we have certainly seen those big storms.
Storms at the beginning of the week were particularly nasty. An EF-4 tornado struck Diaz, Arkansas, while 43 were killed across several states, including 12 in Missouri. Rolla and Poplar Bluff were among the towns to sustain significant damage. Strong storms continued through the Southeast and Mid Atlantic with more tornadoes striking from Louisiana to Alabama, and to the north in Illinois and Indiana. There were also gusty winds and large hail. Given that so many storms struck overnight, an the tornado count was as high as it was, the death toll certainly could have been higher.
The storms have been large enough that they showed up in the long term guidance well in advance of the storm. There were outlooks for severe weather in the 4-9 day SPC outlooks for this storm, as well as the smaller storm early this week (which brought 3 separate small tornadoes to Gary, Indiana!). There is a threat again on Sunday of this weekend for more rough stuff in the Tennessee Valley, though the threat is not as great as these past two rounds. It’s a sign of how pronounced the upper air pattern is. A sure sign of spring.
I noted that these storms were multifaceted. Not only did the storms bring severe weather of the thunderstorm variety, but also of the winter variety, with blizzard conditions coming with both storms in parts of the Upper Midwest. The dynamics of the storm lead to narrow bands of heavy snowfall, and as significantly, strong winds that impacted visibility. Again, this is the nature of spring.
Most people aren’t meteorologists, however, and the larger part of the universe is awaiting warm weather, and I assure you, it is coming. The beginning of the season is a great time to look at the CPC outlook for the next three months. Great news for the sunseekers, because no part of the country, aside from western Alaska, should expect below normal temperatures.
February started cold, abnormally so, and waited to the end of the month to shake the chill. The Weather Channel, though, stayed hot the whole month, and ended up with a somewhat comfortable victory for the month.
Poughkeepsie is definitely a candidate for the Geography Spelling Bee competition that I am starting. I am guessing that this forecast will come easier than the correct spelling and pronunciation of the town.
At 1053AM, ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. It was warm across downstate New York and the surrounding areas, despite a northwest breeze, thanks to the sun this morning, and a split jet which is producing inclement weather to the south, but barricading cold air to the north. The wave to the north is bearing a weak area of low pressure through eastern Canada. the associated cool front will sweep through New England noiselessly tomorrow in the early afternoon, after which an area of high pressure will slide into the mid-Atlantic. as a result, expect a tame, pleasant albeit cooler middle of the week in Poughkeepsie. Tomorrow – Scattered clouds midday, High 65, low 37 Wednesday – Sunny and cooler, High 48, Low 35
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 33 Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (Late rain). High 51, low 33
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and warm; elevated fire risk due to gusty winds and low humidity High 65, Low 31 Wednesday – Cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 50, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 39 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 32
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 63, low 38 Wednesday – Partly sunny. Much cooler High 46, Low 38
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 40 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 34
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 35 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 31
The GFS is keeping a laggard band of precipitation behind the front that the main models have in place. The NAM doesn’t have much of anything, and given the system to the south, that seems more accurate. Sorry, Weather Channel. I don’t like your chances. I do like Weatherbug’s new user interface though! Very nice. Satellite shows a channel of sunny skies, right over Poughkeepsie,
1027AM The shower activity that cropped up last night is now north of Dallas, in the Red River Valley. There is a little bit of thunder with it, but mostly, it is just here to nourish the crops. Overnight, some of those storms produced strong winds which unfortunately proved lethal and caused damage
Rare is the occasion that it is after 8pm, CT, there is an enhanced risk for severe weather and it hasn’t popped yet. There is a mesoscale discussion in anticipation of a looming watch in central Oklahoma and North Central Texas, and the HRRR still has storms popping around Weatherford…. soon.
This is the opening salvo of a multi day outbreak, which is also the first significant storm of meteorological spring. It’s not a surprise. Tomorrow has been flagged as a potential severe weather day since last week. If there is a surprise, it is that the SPC hasn’t upped the outlook to moderate yet. The storm still looks strong, but not any stronger than it looked days ago.
Storms tonight will feature strong winds and a threat for tornados (hence the pending tornado watch), all a part of a broken line of storms, with a stronger threat for larger tornadoes in the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, including isolated supercells. This will be the most significant of the severe weather in terms of intensity and geographic coverage, but more rough weather is likely in the Coastal Plains from the Mid Atlantic to Georgia on Wednesday.
Tonight, Oklahoma City and Dallas may be early morning recipients of the strong weather, while tomorrow, we will look at Shreveport, Jackson and Mobile and surrounding locales. Again, the headliner is tornadoes, but straight line squalls will be a factor as well.
This is all brought on by a deep, well defined and fast moving trough, a hallmark of Spring. Another hallmark of these big spring storms is that there will be snow on the back end of the feature. Ample moisture and energy will lead 4-8″ in many locations from Iowa to Michigan, including a dumping on the Upper Peninsula.
This will be a dangerous weather pattern for the middle of the country, with the first severe outbreak testing readiness, as well as probably bringing out storm chasers, making things a bit dicey on the roads. This will be the first rodeo with the slimmed down Weather Service as well, which makes weather minds tense more than normal. As I noted, this storm has been anticipated for days. The first forecasts for it may have come from meteorologists no longer employed. We won’t get this kind of preparation time often.
Oh, I’ve been working on this post long enough, look what happened:
