There sure aren’t a lot of destinations between Denver and Killeen, but it is a thirteen hour drive, which means we will take a break after the first 8 hours. It’s an 882 hour difference between the two towns, which we will cover at a pace of 65.3mph on the highways through the high plains. At that pace, we will surpass 522 miles before we stop for the night.

DAY ONE (Monday)

Low pressure over the 4 Corners is spiraling away in the base of the left lobe of our Omega blocking pattern, which means persistent rain and storms in the Rockies, and some scattered but unimpressive shower activity on the eastern slope of the Rockies. Unfortunately, that will be exactly where we are driving. Expect it to be wet from eastern Colorado to the Texas Panhandle at times, but with cloudy conditions throughout. Fortunately, this part of the world, and the type of system churning away won’t yet be conducive for really nasty weather. We will stop near New Deal, Texas, which is just north of Lubbock.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)

The feature will emerge from the Rockies overnight and into the morning on Tuesday. The weather position over the Gulf and in the lee of the Rockies will mean more assertive thunderstorm activity through central Texas, but it will be shifting out of our route by mid afternoon. It may even be crisp with quite a bit of sun as we head from the flat, agrarian Lubbock, to the flat, military Killeen.

The number of tornadoes reported in the United States has risen dramatically in the last couple of decades, and there is a pretty good reason for that. Radars are better, there are storm chasers everywhere for nearly every storm, and as a result, we are detecting them with much greater frequency. They’ve always been out there, but now we are able to identify them.

This is the same as many ailments. We may not have been able to identify them in the past, but now that we can, the reported cases have gone up. We used to have a lot of cases of consumption, and then tuberculosis was identified, and what we knew as consumption actually was related to many other symptoms, so consumption, now known as TB saw case numbers rose.

The analogy is a little bit different to what is going on this year, but more or less the same. There is a lot of forecast lead time for storms this year. Either because the storms this year are a little bit stronger, or models are better, or there is a change in philosophy, but there has been a greater willingness by the Storm Prediction Center to put greater risk in outlooks further out in days four and beyond. It used to be that any outlook beyond two days with a slight risk was remarkable, and now we regularly see it in the extended outlook.

This has been a gradual trend that is quite apparent this year. I’d like to have some clarification if there was a change in philosophy or just the natural evolution of confidence in forecast guidance, but obviously, there are other things that government meteorologists have on their minds right now. Whatever the cause, this year I have seen more 15 and 30% risks for severe weather in the SPC’s extended outlook this year than ever before. And they don’t always end up being moderate or high risk days by the time the forecast gets a close to the valid date.

The end result of the SPC’s willingness to issue outlook areas further into the future is that news agencies and ultimately your friends and neighbors pick up on those forecasts, and are able to talk about them for longer. So you ARE hearing about storms more, because you get to hear about them for longer. I think this transition time with greater warning lead times for thunderstorms days is a transitional moment, and communication, as always, needs to be the most important thing.

If people are talking about forecasts for a longer period ahead of the forecast valid time, then the expectation is that that storm will be significant grows. It’s important that the extended outlooks are communicated with reasonable expectations, otherwise trust in the meteorology community (always low, of course) will wane, and the intended benefits of better forecast are ultimately counterproductive. Because we have an apparently elevated ability to forecast thunderstorms in the future, we should also be able to forecast without dire terminology in every forecasting scenario.

There was a moderate risk for severe weather in an event that had been advertised for almost a week in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa on Monday. Ultimately, it verified with a strong line of thunderstorms, hail and a few embedded thunderstorms, however the line split and completely missed the largest population center within the moderate risk area. The Twin Cities didn’t really even get a drop of rain.

Ultimately, models will get better and more refined, and forecasts can get drilled down even further. In the interim, because of the nature of storms and the irregular distribution of population, a very good forecast registered as a poor one for many people. Is the extended outlook providing the benefit it intends to? The relationship between meteorologists, the media and the population needs to thrive on open communication so the improvements can be appreciated by all.

Spring is known for being as damp as it is rejuvenating. We accept how sloppy the month is because we know it is going to bring about some momentous changes to the landscape. Well get ready, friends, because most of the country is going to be on the wet sides through the latter half of the month.

Everywhere but the west coast is looking for a rainy stretch from late this week and on to next week. There aren’t any extreme bullseyes, but even Alaska and Hawaii are going to see extra rain fall.

This, along with warm air forecast to build out east is a preponderance of “Texas Hookers” in the next couple of weeks. Generally, this would mean a broad and deep trough over the Plains. Surface low pressure starting in the southern Plains will rocket towards the Great Lakes, bringing hot, sticky weather in he warm sector, and apparently, rain everywhere.

It wasn’t a particularly snowy year in the middle of the country, which often limits the threat for downstream flooding in the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. The Missouri looks to be ok this season, but the Mississippi is spilling it’s banks in some places, or is expected to soon in others.

If you are a budding cartographer, you will note that the major flood stage pink squares extend away from the Mississippi. It’s the Ohio that is the origin for some of these flood waters, thanks to the persistent seen in our very active March. You will note that rivers are high in a southwest to northeast line from east Texas to western Michigan, aligned with the track of our storms last month.

While all that rain isn’t directly over the Ohio, it would be over the Green, Cumberland and Tennessee River, all of which flow into the Ohio. Parts of downtown Louisville have been underwater thanks to the flooding. As this article notes, we are approaching Louisville’s biggest tourism season, and a flood clean up will be a difficult challenge.

As the region attempts to dry out, we are looking at a pretty dry week. This will help flood waters down river rise and fall without too many consequences. Hopefully this is the last of the river flood season.

It was a good month for Weatherbug. I am a huge fan of their updated interface, and I guess you dress good you feel good, because their month of forecasting was very successful. They had half of the overall victories in the month, which is a pretty good way to win the forecaster of the month award. It’s a turnaround after a slow start to the year, but it was well earned. Congrats!

As I noted in our look ahead earlier today, we have a high risk for severe weather in the mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. We can go through full severe seasons without a high risk, so this is notable.

Storms are beginning to crop up. There have been some severe storms along the cold front, including tornadoes from Illinois to Arkansas, but all eyes are on the Memphis area, where supercells are popping up in west Tennessee and northern Mississippi, including a confirmed twister near Jackson, TN. Follow along with ABC 24’s live stream

We’ve started off busy this spring, with several rounds of severe weather, marked by organization and intensity. While storms, particularly tomorrow, stand to be nasty at times, the remarkable thing is how broad the coverage of this weather is expected to be.

The enhanced risk covers over 240,000 square miles, and features, initially a hail threat in the southwestern portion of the risk early in the day, transitioning to some supercells with a tornado threat centralized along the Ohio downriver from Louisville to the Mississippi south to Greenville, Mississippi. Ultimately, the cells will merge into lines, and strong wind in the southern Great Lakes will be the threat.

The upper level pattern features a broad trough over the middle of the country, setting the stage for broad instability. A couple of short waves at the upper levels will produce more focused inclement weather, and the bullseyes in different areas.

As with any nasty weather, it all depends on where it hits. The biggest thing about this system is that it is big, but the top end energy isn’t going to match some of the storms we’ve seen earlier this month. The geographic scope of the weather means it will be a headline maker, as well as a headache maker for anyone trying to travel.

More rough stuff is expected on Monday along the East Coast. The weather, again, looks to be weaker, but more people, more travelers will be impacted than even tomorrow.

What are the signs of spring that you look for? If you are a normal person, you are likely looking for that first robin to land in your front yard, or for the daffodils to start blooming. If you are a meteorologist or weather super fan, you are on the look out for big, multifaceted storms rumbling through the middle of the country. I can’t speak to the daffodils in your neighborhood, but we have certainly seen those big storms.

Storms at the beginning of the week were particularly nasty. An EF-4 tornado struck Diaz, Arkansas, while 43 were killed across several states, including 12 in Missouri. Rolla and Poplar Bluff were among the towns to sustain significant damage. Strong storms continued through the Southeast and Mid Atlantic with more tornadoes striking from Louisiana to Alabama, and to the north in Illinois and Indiana. There were also gusty winds and large hail. Given that so many storms struck overnight, an the tornado count was as high as it was, the death toll certainly could have been higher.

The storms have been large enough that they showed up in the long term guidance well in advance of the storm. There were outlooks for severe weather in the 4-9 day SPC outlooks for this storm, as well as the smaller storm early this week (which brought 3 separate small tornadoes to Gary, Indiana!). There is a threat again on Sunday of this weekend for more rough stuff in the Tennessee Valley, though the threat is not as great as these past two rounds. It’s a sign of how pronounced the upper air pattern is. A sure sign of spring.

I noted that these storms were multifaceted. Not only did the storms bring severe weather of the thunderstorm variety, but also of the winter variety, with blizzard conditions coming with both storms in parts of the Upper Midwest. The dynamics of the storm lead to narrow bands of heavy snowfall, and as significantly, strong winds that impacted visibility. Again, this is the nature of spring.

Most people aren’t meteorologists, however, and the larger part of the universe is awaiting warm weather, and I assure you, it is coming. The beginning of the season is a great time to look at the CPC outlook for the next three months. Great news for the sunseekers, because no part of the country, aside from western Alaska, should expect below normal temperatures.

Spring is always interesting, and it is here.

February started cold, abnormally so, and waited to the end of the month to shake the chill. The Weather Channel, though, stayed hot the whole month, and ended up with a somewhat comfortable victory for the month.