Fayetteville, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Ozarks are definitely the nicest part of Arkansas, and I think most residents of the other parts of Arkansas would agree with that. Will the weather be just as beautiful?

At 753PM, CT, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with overcast skies. A cold front sliced through the Plains, and moisture has been streaming through the region for the last several days. The added rain of the most recent system has led to flash flood watches in northwest Arkansas. Presently, the only band of heavy rain was northwest of Tulsa, with the axis running from Nowata to Guthrie. The narrow band of showers and storms will move very slowly, and perhaps won’t even cross into Arkansas tonight.
There is a trough across the northern US that is particularly strong for late June, and it’s angle is so severe that it is having a difficult time propagating. Further preventing much motion is the pattern is the strong ridge fostering the record heat in the Pacific Northwest. With little structural change, the peak June sun will help weaken the jet flow, but not the curvature of the trough. Showers and storms will be a possibility through the next couple of days, though with less organization. Intensity may not wane, however, as day time heating could lead to more torrential downpours. The boundary will weaken, but the fuel reservoir will deepen.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 84, Low 70
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 86, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 83, Low 69
Monday – Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 85, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 84, Low 72
Monday – Mostly cloudy and humid; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 84, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, High 84, Low 70
Monday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms, High 81, Low 73
Monday – Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms, High 83, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers likely, High 84, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy with showers likely, High 84, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning. High 82, Low 70
Monday – Possible light rain in the afternoon and evening. High 84, Low 69

Rain isn’t close to Fayetteville at the moment, but more rain is coming, even if they miss this round.

Sacramento, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are taking a forecast trip to the capital of California.

At 753PM, PT, Sacramento was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with partly cloudy skies. Showers were seen in the mountains north of Chico, as a north Pacific gyre continues to spin some moisture to the Pacific Northwest. It hasn’t brought any rain to the Sacramento area, but temperatures are moderated by the cool Pacific air.
Expect the temperature tends to change with a subtle update to the wind direction. Instead of cool Pacific air funneling towards Sacramento, downsloping will be enhanced and the heat will return to Sacramento tomorrow and continue through the weekend.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 58
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 91, Low 59
Sunday – Sunny skies. High 89, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 89, Low 58
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 89, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 90, Low 59
Sunday – Sunny, High 90, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny warmer, High 90, Low 59
Sunday – Sunny, High 87, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 59
Sunday – Sunny, High 90, Low 62

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 57
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 90, Low 60

Hot and dry, just what Californians aren’t looking to hear.

Green Bay, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

As summer has arrived, a lot of people have started thinking about going to the lake and dipping their toes in refreshing waters, though for some reason, I’m not sure Green Bay has often stood out as a desired vacation destination, at least not when it isn’t football season.

At 1053PM, CT, Green Bay was reporting a temperature of 76 with clear skies. That temperature, warm for the middle of the night, was augmented by a dew point of 70. A clammy fog will likely roll into the near shore areas in the morning, and air conditioners will be stressed over night. Low pressure in the northern Rockies was helping draw more warm humid air north, while a surface trough in the Dakotas was feeding off of the potential energy and triggering thunderstorms across the northern Plains. Though they look impressive, they won’t reach eastern Wisconsin, withering as they get away from actual forcing.
There is a weak trough northeast of the Ozarks, and surface low pressure over the Rockies, the Great Lakes are predominantly under a broad, nearly continent wide ridge. Still, given the soupy conditions across Wisconsin, an area thunderstorm will be possible for the next couple of days, particularly in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Hot and humid, with isolated evening storms, High 90, Low 70
Wednesday, more of the same, including storms, High 87, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible.High 89, Low 69
Wednesday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 84, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of sun with a thunderstorm in a couple of spots; very warm High 92, Low 74
Wednesday – Very warm with intervals of clouds and sun High 87, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers between 9am and 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 88, Low 70
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Humid, Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 91, Low 74
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 88, Low 72
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 67

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88. Low 70
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 63

Really hit or miss with those thunderstorm chances. The activity east of Fargo sure isn’t missing tonight.

Raleigh, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed to the Carolinas for our forecast today. The Atlantic Hurricane Season threatened to get off to an early start, as Tropical Storm Ana popped up near Bermuda today. Will any other exciting incidents take place this weekend?

At 853PM, ET, Raleigh was reporting fair skies, calm winds and a temperature of 76. There was a little pocket of clouds in Raleigh, but otherwise, high pressure is the predominant feature across over the eastern US.
The Omega block that has parented this long lasting ridge is going to see the beginning of its end through the beginning of the week. An area of low pressure is riding over the top of the ridge, through Canada, and the blocking low over the Atlantic will begin to lift north to intercept the low to the north, and allow the associated cold front to sink south into the US, with some showers and potentially an embedded thunderstorm arriving late on Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 66
Monday – Partly cloudy with some showers late, High 88, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Hot. High 92, Low 67
Monday – A mix of clouds and sun in the morning followed by cloudy skies during the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 90, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with sunshine and patchy clouds High 91, Low 67
Monday – Very warm with clouds and sun; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 90, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 66
Monday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67
Monday – Partly sunny, High 87, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 64
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 67

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 71
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 70.

Boy, did new model data come out as I wrote this up? Half way through the forecasting, outlets stopped calling for rain. Interesting. Here is the satellite image, which isn’t really full of information.

Des Moines, Iowa

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Des Moines is the destination for today’s forecast. I was just there for Easter, so I feel like I should have their forecast pretty well locked down.

At 936AM, CT, Des Moines was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with overcast skies. While there was no rain presently seen in the Des Moines area, a batch of activity was moving through the Omaha area, and overcast riding over the top of a tropical airmass was shifting north behind a warm front, and smothered most of the Upper Midwest, particularly east of the Missouri. There was a strong ridge over the eastern 3/4ths of the US, but a weak undercutting trough was providing for some rough weather in the south central US, and the exit arm of the trough was helping usher in the soupier air mass across Iowa.
The undercutting trough is expected to fold back into the primary jet, while the surface ridge should start to retrograde a little over the next 24 hours. This will strengthen the return flow, and only stand to make Iowa more humid. A Canadian trough will dangle a cold front into Minnesota, but it won’t be strong enough to organize much convective activity in Iowa, however the latent moisture of the area, along with the brisk flow on the back end of the ridge in the Eastern United States will be enough to provide for garden variety showers and isolated storms through the day tomorrow and into the early afternoon on Friday. The ridge will build in at a more fortunate angle to dissuade more moisture from driving into Iowa, and it should switch off the threat for storms by nightfall.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise stuffy and partly cloudy, High 75, Low 63
Friday – Showers and storms early, then clearing but still muggy, High 80, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms High 76, Low 65
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. High 80, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy; a couple of morning thunderstorms followed by a shower in the afternoon High 74, Low 64
Friday – Remaining cloudy with a couple of thunderstorms High 81, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Cloudy, High 76, Low 64
Friday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2pm. Partly sunny, High 82, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. High 73, Low 64
Friday – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 78, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 76, Low 64
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain until afternoon. High 77, Low 65
Friday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 67

This is a real summer time pattern. An open flow from the Gulf, but no real organization to do anything with it. It’s early in the season, so it seems glum, but it should warm up pretty quick when the sun comes out.

Fairbanks, Alaska

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s always a fun forecast when you have to establish the time zone before you can even begin analyzing the weather.

At 553PM, Alaska Time, Fairbanks was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. While Fairbanks and the rest of the Tanana Valley were appreciating dry weather, the mountains surrounding were being hit with rain which was heavy particularly to the northeast of the city. Low pressure had settled in north of the Alaska Range, but a lot of the effect was the result of local topography, and the system itself was most well organized over the Yukon and British Columbia.
The feature is prognosticated to shift out of the region by tomorrow morning, allowing the Tanana Valley to dry out. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will remain on Monday. A jet ridge will press north towards southern Alaska by Tuesday, with moist air moving into the Alaska Range, where rain will be possible. For this wave, Fairbanks will be in the clear, with moisture unlikely to descent to the city limits.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 40
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning. Increasing clouds with periods of showers later in the day. High 60, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon High 62, Low 43
Tuesday – Turning cloudy (late rain) High 63, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers after 10am. Partly sunny High 61, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 61, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 55, Low 39
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 56, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 39

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 60, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 39

Fairbanks is a tough forecast. It’s not really close to anything else we forecast for, the terrain is absolutely wild, and the models are less available than it is in the CONUS. Here is the radar, with the rain showing up quite well surrounding town.

Kalamazoo, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I hope everyone has had a wonderful Mother’s Day. I know I did, seeing my mom, and watching my wife spend time with our kids is everything I could ask for.

At 1153PM, ET, Kalamazoo was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 44 degrees. The Great Lakes were tucked behind an area of low pressure moving into the Mid-Atlantic. While the north winds were certainly bringing in chillier air, they also provided the clear skies across lower Michigan. The combination of the two is leading to frost and freeze warnings and advisories statewide.
High pressure will build through the next couple of days. The temperature will gradually rise thanks to the spring sunshine, even without a real influx of a new airmass.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 56, Low 36
Tuesday – Sunny, High 58, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 56, Low 35
Tuesday – Sunshine and some clouds High 55, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cool High 54, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and cool High 53, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy frost before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 54, Low 33
Tuesday – Areas of frost before 9am. Otherwise, sunny High 54, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Patchy frost until midday, High 53, Low 36
Tuesday – Sunny. Areas of frost until midday. High 53, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with patchy frost, High 54, Low 33
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with areas of frost, High 54, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 56, Low 34
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 55, Low 31

The nasty weather has shifted southeast but a lot of clear skies over the Great Lakes.

Worcester, Massachusetts

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I’m not sure there is a town with more unpronounced letters than Worcester, especially by the local population.

At 1254AM, ET, Worcester was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 53 degrees. The tail of a weak cold front tailed through the Cape and south of Massachusetts, kicking up an interesting radar return over Boston Harbor, with gravity waves rippling through Massachusetts Bay. It looks quiet over most of New England overnight, though, as the system resposnible for the front is otherwise sequestered over Labrador, and will not cause further problems for Massachusetts.
The next feature is already knocking on the door in the Northeast. Rain will move in from the south, reaching Worcester as early as the early afternoon on Monday. Rain will continue and begin to intensify later in the evening. A warm front might bring an isolated thunderstorm overnight Monday to Tuesday, as the boundary passes The warm sector of the system will linger over southern New England through most of the daylight hours, but more rain will arrive late in the evening as the parent low approaches.
Tomorrow – After noon rain, intensifying late with a rumble of thunder. High 62, Low 50
Tuesday – Early rain, mostly sunny, then rain returns late, High 53, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Late rain High 67, Low 52
Tuesday – Cloudy with occasional rain.. High 54, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy with a passing shower this afternoon High 68, Low 53
Tuesday – A brief shower in the morning; otherwise, low clouds, then perhaps some sun High 58, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 65, Low 52
Tuesday – Showers likely, mainly before 9am. High 63, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (evening rain), High 63, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with 50 percent chance of showers, High 53, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers likely High 63, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain in the evening. High 71, Low 51
Tuesday – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 53, Low 45

I think temperature forecasts have a high bust potential, given the proximity of low pressure to our forecast site. We will find out in a few days. Check out this neat looking radar image from the Boston area, with the radiating bands of rain showers, away from Boston.

Anniston, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Alabama has certainly seen it’s share of terrible weather this spring. I suspect our forecast through the middle of this week will be a bit less intimidating.

At 1153AM, CT, Anniston was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 67 degrees. While temperatures were warm, dew points sat merely in the low to mid 40s, so it wasn’t exactly summerlike northeast of Birmingham. A strong jet lay south of the Gulf Coast, keeping any frontal activity well offshore, and providing for a pleasant, subsident air mass, which is also working to stave off other inclement weather from the north.
A trough in the northern High Plains will drive southeastward, carrying with it a less active cold front than would be expected, given it’s strength. The front will pass without incident on Wednesday in the early evening, save for a switch in the wind direction.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 46
Wednesday – Increasing clouds, High 64, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Sun and a few passing clouds. High 75, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 60, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 76, Low 47
Wednesday – Sunny to partly cloudy and cooler High 60, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 76, Low 49
Wednesday – Sunny High 63, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 46
Wednesday – Cooler, Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. High 60, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 50
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 61, Low 44

That change in wind will, I guess, bring cooler temperatures. Don’t be surprised if Wednesday highs are higher than forecast here. It won’t be colder, though. Check out this beautifully clear satellite image of Alabama.

Elizabethtown, Kentucky

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We were just in Kentucky for our last forecast, and today, we are going just down the road, staying in the Bluegrass State.

At 155AM, ET, Elizabethtown was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There is a remnant disturbance over the the center of the country that is providing clouds and some light rain to parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. A seasonably strong jet streak lay just north of the Gulf of Mexico, and was reflected by the tail of a cold front along the Gulf Coast which was working to prevent much moisture from filtering into the middle of the country. As a result, the already weak feature was even less potent than it’s dynamics suggested.
This aimless bit of moisture and energy has a very modest low level trough running from the eastern Great Lakes towards the Ozarks, and won’t be compelled to move. Instead, it will be lost between a resurgent area of low pressure developing along the Gulf front and a trough descending from Canada. Without a fresh infusion of moisture, or a terribly volatile trigger mechanism, expect little, if any precipitation in the area, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 40
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. High 60, Low 42
Sunday – Sunshine in the morning followed by mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 63, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in places High 60, Low 44
Sunday – Mainly cloudy with a shower in places High 63, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow -Mostly cloudy (10%chance of early showers), High 59, Low 44
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 62, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers, High 58, Low 44
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers, High 61, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 46
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day., High 56 Low 44
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 64, Low 36

It’s always an interesting day when the forecast even features different precipitation forecasts. With some clear sky peaking through, I think the temperature has room to drop over night. That is the first question for this forecast!