Roanoke, Virginia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Good evening! Let’s get this weekend forecast off the ground, shall we?

At 1254AM, ET, Roanoke was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 36 degrees. With clear skies and dew points sub freezing, frost is a foregone conclusion tomorrow morning. A sharp trough moving into the area is bringing cold air to he region, but more significantly outside of Roanoke, will aid in the development of a low in the Bight of Georgia, which will prove impactful later this weekend.
As the system develops this weekend, it will reinforce the chilly air invading the Roanoke area. There may be a few scattered clouds thanks to the flow over the Appalachians, but there is no threat of the feature moving onshore far enough to bring rain or snow to Roanoke. Expect cool temperatures but generally sunny skies through the weekend, but rain, potentially flooding rain and high surf in Georgia and South Carolina, not that far away. The trough will flatten a bit on Sunday, allowing some warmer temperatures to conclude the weekend.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 53, Low 30
Sunday – Partly cloudy, cool and crisp, High 61, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. High 55, Low 30
Sunday – Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 62, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Times of sun and clouds High 54, Low 34
Sunday – Partly sunny High 62, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 54, Low 29
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 62, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 54, Low 33
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 54, Low 29
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 38

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 55, Low 30
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 62, Low 34

The pattern is unkind specifically to Charleston lately. Persistent troughing and development of low pressure over the Bight of Georgia will continue through the early part of the week. Sheesh.

Sherman, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Election Day, and Happy November everyone. We’re going to mosey just south of the Red River and check out Sherman.

At 815PM, CT, Sherman was reporting a temperature of 49 degrees with overcast conditions. A swath of rain was falling just to the south, between Sherman-Denison and I-30, and generally drifting eastward. Scattered showers extended as far to the west as Wichita Falls, so even though the heaviest rain is probably over for the night, more rain is likely on the way tonight. An upper level trough is represented by a notch within a surface ridge, with the ridging expected to overtake the disturbance through the day tomorrow. The rain tonight will continue through late morning, perhaps, but a clear, cool afternoon is anticipated.
With high pressure reestablished under an early winter trough, Sherman should see some tastes of normal to slightly below normal temperatures for the season.
Tomorrow – Light showers early, then clearing and cool, High 50, Low 45
Thursday – Partly cloudy and chilly in the morning, high 56, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon High 48, Low 45
Thursday – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 57, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Cool with occasional rain and drizzle High 51, Low 47
Thursday – Clouds giving way to some sun and cool High 57, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 3pm. High 49, Low 47
Thursday – Partly sunny, High 55, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 49, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny, High 56, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 49, Low 47
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until afternoon. High 52, Low 47
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 57, Low 41

I’m drier and clearer than the rest, and it shows in my temperature forecasts. It looks a little damp tonight.

Portland, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our first forecast of the workweek, and perhaps the last of October (I don’t know that, just how slowly I operate) takes us to the teeth of a bomb cyclone/atmospheric river, and a whole lot of climate buzzwords.

At 553AM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with light rain. The Portland metropolitan area was still getting soaked, The rainfall in the Pacific Northwest is ongoing west of the Cascades, but at a lessened rate than it has over the last few days. The strong system in the Gulf of Alaska has moved towards the Panhandle near Sitka and Juneau, which has decreased the westerly flow, but the low level moisture is still available, and the flow is enough that the Cascades will still see steady precipitation with more intermittent rain in Portland.
While all this is good news, it will take until the middle of the day on Wednesday to really wind down, so occasional breezes and rain will be a fixture today and through the beginning of tomorrow. Wednesday afternoon will be the nicest stretch of the forecast, as a secondary, but weaker reinforcing wave is expected to emerge off the Oregon Coast, arriving overnight Wednesday to Thursday. This feature will take a direct shot at the Olympic Peninsula, but Portland will see more rain and wind, especially in the evening on Thursday as the next round slides ashore. This second round will bring a warmer ridge northward, and some warming should be anticipated late.
Tomorrow – Rain in the morning, a bit of clearing late, High 60, Low 50
Thursday – Rain, maybe a rumble of thunder in the evening, High 65,Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional light rain in the afternoon. High 57, Low 51
Thursday – Rain showers in the morning will evolve into a more steady rain in the afternoon High 65, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover with a little rain High 58, Low 51
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers HIgh 67, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely before 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 50
Thursday – Rain. High 64, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely until afternoon, then rain likely late in the afternoon, High 55, Low 50
Thursday – Rain, High 64, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 58, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 64, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 60, Low 48
Thursday – Light rain throughout the day. High 62, Low 57

We are all over the place in what we expect will happen in Portland over the next couple of days. I’m very interested in seeing how it all plays out.

Ogden, Utah

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I consider myself a geography aficionado. It’s something I am good at, but frankly, I constantly confuse Ogden and Provo. Ogden, if you were curious, is north of Salt Lake City.

At 653PM, MT, Ogden was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. There really weren’t many clouds anywhere across the western United States as residents try to reclaim some autumn after an early shot of snow last weekend.
A fast moving upper level low will rotate through the central Pacific Coast towards Utah, bringing about some clouds to the region, with high elevation snow becoming likely again. Precipitation will arrive on Monday morning, and down by the Lake, Ogden will see only rain. There should be some improvement after sunset, but only at the end of a rainy afternoon.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 41
Monday – Rain through the daylight hours. High 57, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds, High 70, Low 42
Monday – Cloudy with rain developing later in the day. High 57, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 69, low 40
Monday – Cooler with clouds and breaks of sun; breezy in the morning with a thunderstorm in spots followed by afternoon showers High 58, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 40
Monday – Rain, mainly after 1pm High 56, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 67, Low 41
Monday – Breezy. Partly sunny with a slight chance of rain in the morning, then cloudy with rain in the afternoon. High 56, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 42
Monday – Mostly cloudy with light rain, High 56, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 74, Low 43
Monday – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon, high 63, Low 49

I’m not sure what broker at Forecast.io, but they sure have different forecasts. Forecast lows are all non-standard for Monday, except Weather Nation who don’t have hourly forecasts that deep into the night. The satellite is pretty empty

Sioux Falls, South Dakota

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re going to the Dakotas this evening. There was a little bit of rough weather in South Dakota last night. Will the start of the work week bring more of the same?

At 756pm, CT, Sioux Falls was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies. There was a complex series of of low pressure bringing rain and areas of strong thunderstorms from the Canadian border and further south, particularly in Oklahoma and Texas, but a swath of clear and cool air had built into the Dakotas.
The next trough will rotate into the central Plains after diving out of the Rockies, and is going to bring with it a strong batch of cold air, and quite a bit of vorticity, winding up what will likely be the largest storm of the season. Expect that by late Tuesday, flow will become robustly southerly, with rain starting late in the afternoon and evening. Very windy conditions are expected Tuesday night, with rain heavy in spots.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 42
Tuesday – Sunny early, then rainy with very strong winds, even outside o thunderstorms, High 72, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 72, Low 44
Tuesday – Plentiful sunshine High 71, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant and warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 72, Low 45
Tuesday – Partly sunny and comfortable (late rain) High 70, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 71, Low 44
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 44
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 44

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 71, Low 45
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 45

It’s not a matter of if, but when it will rain in Sioux Falls. At least they aren’t in Wyoming and Montana, where snow is likely. And at least for tonight, it’s pretty OK.

Los Angeles, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are so many cities in the US, and we forecast for all of them, it’s always surprising for some reason when one of the big cities of the country gets pulled. Let’s forecast in LA!

At 753PM, PT, Los Angeles was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with partly cloudy skies. Dew points were a little on the high side for the Los Angeles basin, lingering in the 60s near the coast and to the mid 50s inland. A deeply angled jet trough lies over the southwestern US, and it was evidenced by the stream of clouds from Los Angeles to Lake Havasu and south towards the Mexican border.
This jet trough will rotate away from southern California, bringing more sunny skies to the picture. This will allow for some warmth to build back in. Breezy conditions may arise on Saturday, but quieter winds are expected for Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, some morning fog, High 71, Low 58
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 72, Low 55
Sunday – Mainly sunny. High 81, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cool, High 72, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny and pleasant High 80, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny, High 80, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 55
Sunday – Sunny, High 78, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny, High 81, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 78, low 56
Sunday – Clear throughout the day High 61, Low 57

Next week is going to be a pretty interesting week in California, with rain and even snow in the mountains. Yowza.

Dothan, Alabama

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

A second forecast for the day, but there shouldn’t be much controversy with this one.

At 1053PM, CT, Dothan was reporting a temperature of 75 degree with overcast skies. The overcast will help sustain warmer temperatures through the night, and dew points that also sat in the mid 70s foretell of fog. The clouds are low based and low topped, and should diminish with sunshine on Friday. The remnants of a boundary running north-south through Georgia was touching off some thunderstorms in the Peach State, but the threat for rain had passed in southern Alabama.
An organizing area of low pressure off the coast of Georgia will draw the moisture presently in Georgia mostly off shore, and certainly away from Alabama. Expect a dry weekend in Dothan, but the humidity is more than likely to stay elevated.
Tomorrow – Fog early, then clearing and sunny, High 84, Low 72
Saturday – Sunny with less haze in the morning, High 85, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, slight chance of a rain shower, High 86, Low 70
Saturday – Mostly sunny skies. High 85, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of morning showers and a thunderstorm; otherwise, partly sunny High 85, Low 71
Saturday – Pleasant with sunshine and a few clouds High 84, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 84, Low 70
Saturday – Sunny, High 84, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, High 84, Low 70
Saturday – Sunny, High 85, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow = Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 84, Low 71
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 65

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 69
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 63

I rea;;y am not sure where the rain is coming from in the forecasts for Dothan. Sure looks quiet right now.

Cleveland, Tennessee

Ryan Henning 2 Comments

Cleveland is one of the towns in a busy corridor of eastern Tennessee. It’s closer to Chattanooga than any other town, and nowhere near Lake Erie.

At 150PM, ET, Cleveland was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with partly cloudy skies. The upper level feature that brought some severe weather to the region yesterday has deteriorated and started spiraling back towards the western Great Lakes. Westerly flow at the south end of the circulation is driving up the Appalachians, and is producing some extra overcast and rain in the region, but at the surface, dry high pressure is pressing in from the southwest.
An upper level trough will shift off the Georgia coast and will aid in the development of a feature in the Gulf of Georgia. It is expected to develop quickly, and is being monitored for tropical development. The focused circulation around this feature is going to clear out the environment on shore for most of the region. Rain will fall in the Coastal Carolinas, but Cleveland will be dry.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High High 78, Low 66
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – A shower or two around the area in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 80, Low 66
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 81, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, humid with a blend of sun and clouds High 81, Low 67
Saturday – Mostly sunny and nice High 82, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 78, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of sowers and thunderstorms in the morning, then sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 78, Low 65
Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 78, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight. High 79, Low 63
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 58

I’m going to stay out on my limb, with no rain in the forecast. Right now, rain is moving through the Smokey Mountains, and isn’t backing down the mountains towards Cleveland and Chattanooga. It seems unlikely that that would change, right? Anyways, here is the satellite imagery. There is rain, as I noted, up hill and east of Cleveland. Note the clouds off shore, as that is our pending potentially tropical feature.

Roanoke, Virginia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve made it to October. The leaves are changing, and the weather is cooling down. Pumpkin spice everything.

At 1154PM, ET, Roanoke was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 61 degrees. High pressure is parked over the mid-Atlantic, which is good news, because it is directing Hurricane Sam well away from land, and is going to lead to a very nice start to the weekend.
There are two strong jet streaks over the continent, including one in the Canadian Maritimes and another from western Canada to the Canadian Prairies. Between, the flow aloft is contorted into a trough over the Upper Midwest, but is not partnered with vigorous flow. It is reflected by a fairly weak system moving from the Upper Midwest towards the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday. Scattered showers over the Mississippi Valley will struggle to by pass the Appalachians. The weakening low will drift into the eastern Great Lakes, but the mountains and the ridge will keep Roanoke dry through the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 52
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. HIgh 84, Low 54
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 83, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; a beautiful start to the weekend High 83, Low 54
Sunday – Some sun, then turning cloudy High 83, Low 62

NWS: Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Sunday – A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 82, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 57
Sunday – Mostly sunny, a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 80, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 56
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow -Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 53
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 59

It’s really interesting to see the disparity in this forecast from outlet to outlet. Rain just doesn’t seem likely to me. I mean, look at this scene and try to tell me it should rain here.

Greenville, South Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Autumn arrives tomorrow, but it always comes a little later to the southeast than the rest of the country. How summery will the end of September be?

At 853PM, ET, Greenville was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with overcast skies. In the ever unraveling saga of Nicholas, he is finally being dragged north towards the Eastern Great Lakes, but a plume of remnant moisture extends from western Pennsylvania to central North Carolina. Of more interest is a sharply digging upper level trough that is reaching into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. While the remnants of Nicholas are east of the Appalachians, cyclogenesis will be very autumnal thanks to the trough over the next couple of days.
AS the trough rotates a bit and moves east, the latent moisture left by Nicholas will be expressed as widespread showers with some isolated embedded storms. The low generated by the trough is fully evolved, even dropping a cold front that will press through Greenville tomorrow evening. The air behind the front will be dry and refreshing after so many days with rain in the forecast.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms more likely in the afternoon and evening. Cooling quickly. High 79, Low 63
Thursday – Sunny and nice, High 76, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms. High 78, Low 64
Thursday – Sunny. Less humid. High 75, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; much cooler than recent days High 80, Low 64
Thursday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 75, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy, High 79, Low 62
Thursday – Sunny High 76, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 78, Low 63
Thursday – Sunny, High 74, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and chance of storms, High 79, Low 62
Thursday – Sunny, High 76, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning and afternoon. High 77, Low 63
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 77, Low 51

All those lows tomorrow are going to be midnight lows. The coming cold front is going to be pretty aggressive. Just this weak smattering across the area right now.