Our forecast today is taking us to central Arkansas. It’s not quite the Ozarks, not quite the Mississippi Valley, it’s Pine Bluff!
At 753PM, CT, Pine Bluff was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees, with dew points in the low 70s. The high dew points were not enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms across the region, with a weak upper ridge nosing into the region, suppressing flow in any direction. Guidance is fairly consistent about lee troughing emerging as the week draws to an end. If anything, this will mean even more humidity, this time from the Gulf, rather than augmented by the woods of the Ozarks, and at all levels. While precipitation isn’t expected, there is an increased level of clouds by Friday. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, high 91, Low 70 Friday – Partly cloudy, High 96, Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine. High 97, Low 71 Friday – Sunshine. High 98, Low 73
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 96, Low 70 Friday – Plenty of sunshine High 96. Los 71
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 96, Low 71 Friday – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 71
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 94, Low 75 Friday – Sunny. High 92, Low 73
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 71 Friday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 71
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 96, Low 71 Friday – Sunny, High 98, Low 72
It looks fairly quiet on radar over Arkansas. Those storms aren’t going to be working north any time soon.
We are on our way to Point Conception, north of LA for this forecast. There were tsunami advisories south of SLO today, which is not something I have seen on an NWS alert map in the past.
At 656PM, PT, San Luis Obispo was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. There was a brisk onshore flow, keeping things comfortable west of the Coastal Range, though it was in the mid-90s on the other side of the mountains. There is a jet streak over central California ensuring onshore flow will be maintained with some vigor, however of greater note is the low clouds lurking offshore. Point Conception is prime territory for morning low clouds and fog, and each of the next to days should feel the impact of the Marine Layer. Tomorrow – morning clouds and fog, High 76, Low 55 Friday – Morning clouds, clearing, High 76, Low 55
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 74, Low 54 Friday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 75, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to sun High 77, Low 56 Friday – Mostly sunny and nice High 78, Lo 56
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 75, Low 55 Friday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 76, Low 55
WB: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog in the morning then sunny. High 81, Low 58 Friday – Low clouds and fog in the morning then sunny. High 80, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 55 Friday – Partly Cloudy, High 76, Low 55
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 56 Friday – Sunny, High 74, Low 58
Wow, one degree different from the NWS forecast. We’ll all feel pretty silly if we are a ways off. Satellite shows the lingering clouds offshore.
Danville lies along the Indiana border, south of Chicago, and deep inside of corn sweat country. Are you ready to swelter?
At 355PM, CT, Danville was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. Importantly, dewpoints were in the low to mid 70s across the regions, making things even more uncomfortable. Lower level forcing is driving a bit of surface development, which is initiating in the High Plains. The moisture that crops up here will then track along the southern edge of a ridge that has emerged over the north central part of the US. There is, as a result, a marginal risk of severe weather for the area tomorrow. There is weak forcing but unstable air. Things may unfold quickly. If things proceed as current longer range models indicate, storms will arrive in Danville and linger into the overnight hours, before exiting town in the predawn of Thursday. If this is another derecho, as have been frequent of late, don’t be surprised if the onset is earlier than currently indicated. Fortunately, the ridge is going to continue to squash further south. It isn’t necessarily enjoying the benefit of cold air, but the air is dryer, and Thursday afternoon, at the very least, will be pleasant. Tomorrow – Rain in the afternoon, with strong thunderstorms possible overnight, High 92, Low 72 Thursday – Early morning thunderstorms, with gusty winds, then much more pleasant, High 79, Low 66
TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. A stray thunderstorm is possible High 91, Low 70 Thursday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late. High 75, Low 66
AW: Tomorrow – Warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a couple of heavy thunderstorms in the afternoon; storms can bring flash flooding and damaging winds High 89, Low 70 Thursday – Periods of rain and a thunderstorm in the morning; mostly cloudy and humid; heavy downpours can reduce visibility and cause ponding on streets and highways High 74, Low 68
NWS: Tomorrow – 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. High 89, Low 72 Thursday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. High 77, Low 65
WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 93, Low 74 Thursday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. High 76, Low 66
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 89, Low 72 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 78, Low 65
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 91, Low 71 Thursday – Thunderstorm, High 76, Low 63
Clearly, whatever happens in Danville this week is going to have a real impact. Expect better sleeping this later this week, central Illinois. Satellite with a few clouds by St. Louis before the sun goes down.
We aren’t yet to the peak of monsoon season in the southwest, but it is certainly summer. I expect some good numbers for our forecast outlets, and a toasty temperature read out.
At 1051AM, ET, Phoenix was already reporting a temperature of 98 degrees with clear skies. It would be a hot day again today. While the monsoon season hasn’t gotten fully cranked up, there are afternoon showers and storms erupting along the New Mexico border, with a threat for afternoon activity generally north of Tucson. The synoptic pattern is non existent, which means a persistence forecast is in order. Even if a stray storm wanders into Phoenix, the activity will erupt after peak heating has been achieved, so there won’t be much modification from being the model guidance. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 111, Low 88 Tuesday – Hot, sunny, High 110, Low 85
TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 109, Low 88 Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 107, Low 88
AW: Tomorrow – Hot with hazy sun; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 112, Low 89 Tuesday – Mostly sunny and very warm; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 109, Low 89
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 109, Low 88 Tuesday – Sunny, High 108, Low 87
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot High 109, Low 87 Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 109, Low 92
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 109, Low 88 Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 108, Low 87
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 109, Low 88 Tuesday – Sunny, High 108, Low 88
I told you that it is monsoon season, but there isn’t anything to show for it on satellite.
It’s a hot on this holiday weekend, with a few scattered showers and storms across the middle of the country. It’s hard to produce a forecast for anywhere right now without giving a thought to the devastating floods in Kerrville, Texas over the weekend. My heart aches for all the families that have lost in Texas. It’s another reminder that, while the strength of a storm is always a factor, often just as impactful is the time and the place the storm occurs. Donate here.
At 753PM, Fort Smith was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. A trough moving through the middle of the country is triggering a band of thunderstorms through southern Missouri, but the southward progression of the system was not expected to bring that activity as far south as Fort Smith this evening. Tomorrow afternoon, the heat and humidity of the region will provide enough instability for some showers and storms in the afternoon. A ripple in the lower levels of the atmosphere along the US-Canadian border will touch off a new band of showers and thunderstorms in the plains. This more organized band of storms will be a threat for Fort Smith on Tuesday evening, but not before another hot humid day transpires. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with showers and storms in the evening High 92, Low 72 Tuesday – Scattered clouds with some increasing showers and storm, High 90, Low 73
TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 92, Low 73 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms mainly in the morning High 87, Low 73
AW: Tomorrow – Humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 75 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy and humid with a thunderstorm in parts of the area High 90, Low 74
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 75 Tuesday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 90, Low 74
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 92, Low 76 Tuesday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 88, Low 75
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 93, Low 75 Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light showers and scattered storms, High 90, Low 74
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 95, Low 75 Tuesday – Thunderstorm, High 91, Low 75
It’s strange having this much thunder activity but so little in motion aloft. Indeed, we are in the summer season!
There are a surprising number of large cities in Ohio, and I’m not sure that most people are aware of all of them. Sandusky is the third largest, just on the shore of Lake Erie, however if you are familiar with Cedar Point Amusement Park, you probably have heard of Sandusky.
At 455PM, ET, Sandusky was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with overcast conditions. There was a smattering of thunderstorms across Ohio, Michigan and Lake Erie, including a few that were producing severe hail. The nearest was a storm about 20 miles south of Sandusky, drifting to the southeast. This was all a part of a slow moving warm front across the Great Lakes, which was keeping the area from the historic heatwave in the Eastern US, but also allowing for the severe storms. The pattern in the northern Plains, at least over the lower levels, will continue to be unsettled, but the jet structure is going to lift north and away from there. The instability in the Plains will work with the heat and humidity under the jet ridge in the east, lifting north and continuing to bring thunderstorms to the Sandusky area. A surface trough will drift through the area late on Friday, bringing the best chance of thunderstorms. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 73 Friday – Partly cloudy, a few afternoon and evening storms, High 88, Low 75
TWC: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds mixed with a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Hgh 86, Low 71 Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 75
AW: Tomorrow – Warm and very humid with a thunderstorm in the area; cloudy in the morning, then times of sun and clouds in the afternoon High 86, Low 71 Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in a couple of spots in the afternoon High 89, Low 73
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 72 Friday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 74
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers. High 85, Low 75 Friday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 76
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 86, Low 72 Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 89, Low 74
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 90, Low 73 Friday – Light rain showers, High 93, Low 75
Clime is going on the warm side, even tomorrow. Here is a look at the radar, with that storm to the south of Sandusky.
I once had a first generation GPS in my vehicle that pronounced both L’s in the name “Lincoln” and now I can’t say it any other way. Thanks, technology.
At 118PM, CT, Lincoln was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 80 degrees. The passage of a cool front was imminent. The leading gust front was already south of town – Beatrice was reporting 91 degrees — though the cold front itself was highlighted by a band of showers from Tekamah to Hastings, and temperatures behind the front were in the 60s. The boundary is associated with low pressure headed towards Hudson Bay, along a jet that is not expected to start moving. A heat dome on the east coast is holding things at bay in the Plains, so the boundary north of Lincoln will merely oscillate and fade in southeastern Nebraska. Given it’s position today, there may be some strong thunderstorms tonight in the Lincoln area, but the window is closing quickly. Tomorrow, the remnant boundary may lead to a few showers. A trough in the Desert Southwest will help push the surface boundary north by mid-week, and Lincoln will be hot and drier on Wednesday afternoon, despite some shower threat on Wednesday morning. The jet itself will remain in place, and gusty winds will be seen throughout the period. Tomorrow – Scattered showers early and storms in the afternoon, High 83, Low 70 Wednesday – Lingering showers in the morning, then clearing and hot, High 94, Low 73
TWC: Tomorrow – A few showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 83, Low 69 Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 72
AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm, especially late; humid; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 82, Low 71 Wednesday – Partly sunny, breezy and warmer; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 92, Low 72
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10am, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 70 Wednesday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 95, Low 72
WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 79, Low 71 Wednesday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid High 91, Low 72
WN: tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 87, Low 70 Wednesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 95, Low 72
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 84, Low 70 Wednesday – Thunderstorm, High 93, Low 72
I think a lot of people are looking at that band of showers, representing the cold front, and willing it to keep moving further and further south. It’s hot out east!
There is a lot to be said about the tremendous change in geography from west to east in Colorado, but not enough is noted about the changes you see along the front range from north to south. Denver is a very different town from Pueblo, from the setting to the people. The weather is usually fairly dissimilar as well, and I’m sure it will be again this week.
At 1053PM, MT, Pueblo was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. While the pattern at the highest levels of the atmosphere was fairly unremarkable, the dry line is becoming active, and there was a bit of a curl to the flow over west Texas. This is helping focus todays and future storms around the dry line. There will be a westerly flow throughout the period over Colorado, which will result in some spotty showers over the Rockies, but the combination of moisture being restricted from the Gulf and the downsloping winds will render precipitation in Pueblo improbably, and sun and warm temperatures the more likely scenario for the next couple of days. Tomorrow – Sunny and warm, High 92, Low 57 Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 91, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 58 Thursday – Mostly sunny early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 90, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 92, Low 55 Thursday – Sun followed by some clouds and very warm, turning breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm around High 94, Low 56
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 57 Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 57
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. High 87, Low 62 Thursday – Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 61
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 91, Low 58 Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms High 92, Low 57
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, high 91, Low 56 Thursday – Light rain showers, High 93, Low 58
Certainly some discrepancy in the rain forecasts. I’m standing by myself with this one, but I feel good. Maybe a few showers down by Trinidad, but I think Pueblo stays dry. Clouds are overshooting the Rockies this evening
Dalton is an interesting place for a forecast visit. It is so close to the commercial weather Mecca that is Atlanta, and yet so far. Dalton is in the higher terrain of northwest Georgia, which can lead to some interesting weather perturbations that are dissimilar even to the spots just down the road.
At 1053AM, ET, Dalton was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with overcast skies. A sharp upper level ridge was tilted across New England, which was allowing for some clean radars for the moment, however the pattern aloft is quite active, including a sharp trough over the Northern Plains, and of more local concern, a weak lower level short wave over the eastern Gulf. The strength of the upper trough and the moisture attendant with the weak Gulf low will interact to bring clouds and moisture north into the Peach State. The Gulf trough is going to weaken as it drifts ashore, and while clouds are expected in Dalton both Wednesday and Thursday, the precipitation associated with those clouds will be light. Aloft, the northern jet is going to phase down and reconstitute north of the Canadian border, robbing the area of conflicting air masses, which will ultimately make the next two days fairly dull and dreary. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with spots of drizzle, High 83, low 66 Thursday – Light rain possible early, then mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 64
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 86, Low 66 Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 84, Low 65 Thursday – Humid with plenty of sun High 85, Low 67
NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly sunny High 85, Low 66 Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 86, Low 66
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83, Low 67 Thursday – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 68
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 87, Low 66 Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 86, low 66
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 85 Low 64 Thursday – Sunny, High 84, Low 65
The satellite is pretty clean right now, and it won’t be real ugly later, but it will certainly be different.
In NFL circles, Green Bay is known as the “Frozen Tundra”. Something tells me that, rolling into June, that name isn’t as apt.
At 456PM, CT, Green Bay was in reporting rain. There were spotty showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, including a few that have been severe with large hail. A broad area of low pressure centered over Eastern Canada is trailing a few different frontal and post frontal bands. There is severe weather s a result of this system on the east coast, and the weather in Eastern Wisconsin is the most significant post frontal activity. The disorganized upper level pattern surrounding the trough is going to coalesce as a jet trough overnight into tomorrow morning. This will make the overall pattern more transient. Lingering shower activity will wrap up this evening, and tomorrow will be dry as a weak ridge enters the picture. The next feature will be more appropriately centered for this time of year, and will emerge from the Canadian Prairies. By Sunday afternoon, America’s Dairyland will be within the warm sector of this feature, with some isolated showers and storms popping up late in the day over central Wisconsin, but the Lake cooled air should keep them away from Green Bay. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 46 Sunday – Mostly sunny, warmer with isolated clouds late, High 76, Low 43
TWC: Tomorrow -Sunny skies. High 73, Low 47 Sunday – Sunny. High 77, Low 44
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 73, Low 47 Sunday – Hazy sunshine and warm; smoke from Canadian wildfires will obscure the sky High 79, Low 44
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of smoke after 4pm. Sunny, High 69, Low 45 Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Areas of smoke in the afternoon High 70, Low 48 Sunday – Sunny. High 74, Low 46
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45 Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 47 Sunday – Sunny, High 79. Low 42
For more on that smoke, take a look at the WBAY weather forecast. For more on the storms this afternoon, check out the radar loop below. For more on the forecast from Clime tomorrow, I can’t help you.
