Winston-Salem, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

This is a very exciting day for me in the forecast realm. Not very often we get to include a hyphen in the forecast city name!

At 954AM, ET, Winston-Salem was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 81 degrees. Clear skies were the boss, but dew points in the low 70s pointed to uncomfortable conditions and the potential for a few clouds today. Some low level convergence suggested a lee trough just to the west of the airport, and the threat for some afternoon showers and storms today, though high pressure dominated the broader map in the Carolinas.
This lee trough is going to be the primary factor over the next couple of days. There is colder, dryer air on the other side of the Appalachians, but the jet structure is well into Canada, and will not advance far enough to change the air mass in Winston-Salem. Expect scattered showers and storms in the afternoons through the mid-week. Surface low pressure in eastern Canada may eject some midlayer overcast into the Carolinas on Thursday, bringing temperatures down a tick or two
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance for some pop up showers, High 90, Low 72
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and at times overcast. Scattered showers, High 86, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms.  High 87, Low 71
Thursday – Cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 84, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and breaks of sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 90, Low 73
Thursday – Considerable cloudiness with a thunderstorm High 83, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 72
Thursday – A slight chance of showers b73efore noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny,  High 86, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, High 88, Low 73
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 75
Thursday – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 84, Low 74

It will be nice to ratchet the heat down wherever we can. Some storms are just starting to pop up in the Blue Ridge Mountains to the west as we grabbed this satellite image.

Corvallis, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Most of the people that live in Oregon live along in a north-south corridor adjacent to the Cascades. Oregon State is in Corvallis, and the town and the school are well within the corridor.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t note the historic flooding in the Ohio Valley. St. Louis recently broke a single day record for rainfall, while eastern Kentucky is seeing a rising death toll thanks to flash flooding caused by the deluge. Our thoughts are with those affected by these disasters.

At 656PM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with clear skies. Salem and Eugene, on either side of the city, were reporting temperatures of 95 degrees. Of course, along the coast with the Marine layer, temperatures were hovering in the mid 50s with clouds and fog. There was no forecast for that haze to press further ashore.
Flow over the western US is fairly stagnant, with any jet structure only found well to the north, originating in the northern Yukon. As a result, heat has been allowed to build in the Pacific Northwest. While the Gulf of Alaska low was currently absent, a weak wave shifting closer to the shore will bring some cooler air late on Saturday, to be joined by some clouds.
Tomorrow – Hot, High 96, Low 60
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 98, Low 61
Saturday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 97, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Blazing sunshine and hot; possible danger of dehydration and heat stroke while doing strenuous activities High 97, Low 60
Saturday – Blazing sunshine and hot; possible danger of dehydration and heat stroke while doing strenuous activities High 96, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 98, Low 61
Saturday – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 60
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 61
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 62

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 93, Low 65
Saturday – Humid throughout the day. High 93, Low 63

It’s hot, but fortunately, the heat won’t be as intense or as resilient as last year’s heat wave. It is expected to break by the end of the weekend. For now, you can certainly see the clear skies over most of Oregon, but the intrusion of low clouds and fog over the coast is evident as well.

Abilene, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Abilene is the first big town you see west of Fort Worth in Texas. The entire state is so big, though, it is a regional hub all by itself out there in the Plains.

At 752AM, CT, Abilene was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 82. West Texas and much of the southern Plains were south of a mostly stationary boundary along the Kansas-Oklahoma border, and it promised to get well into the triple digits south of this boundary. Heat advisories were in place for the area.
Little change is anticipated for the region. The boundary has sagged south through the last couple of days, and a wave moving through the Canadian Prairies will push it even further south. The dry line will become more entrenched in eastern New Mexico, and a few clouds and increased humidity in Abilene may bring temperatures down out of the triple digit range, but if then, not by much.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and hot, High 100, Low 77
Friday – Partly cloudy, more humid, High 98, low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies High 101, Low 79
Friday – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 99, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm High 101, Low 79
Friday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 98, Low 79

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 101, Low 79
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 80

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 81
Friday – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 97, Low 81

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 101, Low 79
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 100, Low 78

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 100, Low 77
Friday – Humid throughout the day. High 100, Low 78

Hot, hot hot. But for the most part, everyone agrees it will “cool down” a bit on Friday. Make sure the sweaters are nearby.

Atlanta, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed to one of the more important weather hubs in the country, along with Silver Spring, Maryland and Oklahoma City. Atlanta is home to many weather focused corporations, notably The Weather Channel, and we are coming for you, TWC!

At 1252PM, ET, Atlanta was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 87 degrees. Bands of isolated thunderstorms are stretched across North Georgia, with one particular cluster near Athens, Gainesville and Lawrenceville, and a stronger line north of Rome. There is one cell on the southeast side of Atlanta, but otherwise, there is a dry window encompassing the Atlanta area. There is an area of low pressure over Quebec dangling a cold, becoming stationary front through the Tennessee Valley, and along that boundary is a perturbation centered near the District of Columbia. This complicated set up is helping to tap into the moisture in the southeast, and touching off the banding showers and thunderstorms in north Georgia this afternoon.
The threat for storms in and around Atlanta will abate a bit this afternoon, as the activity becomes more focused along the boundary to the north. That boundary is expected to remain intact even as the low over Quebec deteriorates. A second surface low moving out of the High Plains into the Great Lakes will pull the boundary a bit to the north by Wednesday, presenting a dry mid-week in Atlanta. Of course, one last perturbation along the front before it moves northward will bring some scattered showers to Atlanta first on Tuesday evening.
Tomorrow – Scattered clouds with a chance for isolated showers and storms, High 88, Low 73
Wednesday – Scattered to mostly cloudy. A bit warmer, High 90, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 89, Low 74
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 93, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 87, Low 73
Wednesday – Partly sunny and humid; a thunderstorm in spots late in the afternoon High 91, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Partly sunny, High 88, Low 74
Wednesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 87, Low 74
Wednesday – Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 91, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 89, Low 73
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 74
Wednesday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, ow 75

Pretty hot couple of days in Georgia, but all that moisture around, the mountains, it keeps it from triple digits most of the time. Rain shield over Atlanta has been activated.

Baltimore, Maryland

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s a hot July, one of the hottest ever recorded in many parts of the world, including the mid-south in the US. Just normal — “normal” — hot out east though. Is there anything else coming with it?

At 954AM, ET, Baltimore was already reporting a temperature of 88 degrees. Mostly cloudy skies populated the region, and dew points were a soupy 73 degrees. There is an area of low pressure over eastern Canada, dangling a cold front along the Appalachians. It is a typical summer time boundary, and while there are clouds across Appalachia, it isn’t bolstered by very much cold air, and the moisture content is negligible. Still, any chance at relief will be appreciated.
High pressure at the surface will remain entrenched, even as the boundary moves through Appalachia. Tomorrow may be a bit cooler than today, but high pressure is going to build back into the region on Saturday, and temperatures and humidity are expected to build right back with it.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 95, Low 75
Saturday – High 98. Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. Hot High 97, Low 75
Saturday – Mainly sunny. Hot High 97, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 96, Low 75
Saturday – Mostly sunny and hot; stay hydrated; signs of heat illness can include headache, dizziness and nausea High 97, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 96, Low 75
Saturday – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 96, Low 76
Saturday – Sunny. High 96, Low 77

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 75
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 94, Low 75
Saturday – Humid throughout the day. High 94, Low 77

That’s just a really hot stretch of days. There is a lot of similarity from day to day among the outlets, but I just think that there is too much going in the mid and upper levels for the two days to be carbon copies. One day will be cooler, probably tomorrow, and Saturday will bounce back like nothing happened. Clouds are scattered today.

Redding, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

When I think of California, I think of Mt. Shasta or Eureka — Not particularly warm places. Redding is the furthest north major population center in California, and residents there would like to let you know that it can be pretty hot there.

At 853AM, PT, Redding was seeing clear skies, and the temperature of already 85 degrees. Some light flow onshore is bringing fog to the coast. The light, oceanic flow through the Bay Area and the fog on the coast is cooling things of a bit in northern California, though Redding is a clear hot spot, stifled and away from the maritime flow.
There is a trough moving through the Pacific Northwest through the middle of the week. Monsoonal flow and cool sea surface temperatures will ensure that there won’t be much moisture associated with the feature, so all eyes will be on the jet trough, with hopes it will break the heat. It doesn’t seem as though that will be terribly successful. If there are any impacts near Redding, it will come in the way of clearer mornings, with fog less likely on Thursday morning.
Tomorrow- Hot and partly cloudy, High 101, Low 69
Thursday – Hot and sunny High 103, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 100, Low 69
Thursday – Sunny, High 103, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 100, Low 71
Thursday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 102, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 71
Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 102, low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 73
Thursday – Sunny, High 102, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 71
Thursday – Sunny, High 101, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 101, Low 73
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 104, Low 69

That’s pretty hot, as promised. And also as promised, it will be cooler tomorrow and Thursday than today, where forecast highs are about 105. Enjoy that relief! Here is the satellite, with low clouds along the coast.

Manchester, New Hampshire

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Manchester in the US is in New Hampshire. In England, Hampshire is nowhere near Manchester (which is its own county, between Lancashire and Cheshire). There is a Portsmouth in both New and original Hampshire, but we’re here to talk about Manchester.

At 253PM, ET, Manchester was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Low pressure over the Atlantic, south of Greenland was parenting an inverted trough over northern Quebec that ran to central Ontario. Between the two disturbances was a rife spot for some midlevel instability, and some spotty clouds. Disturbed weather to the south is more impressive on satellite, but is not going to pose a wet threat for Manchester.
The remnant wave in pursuit of the Greenland low will pivot into New England through the day on Friday. The parent remnant trough will actually start to redevelop, and with it, so too will the local jet. By this point, moisture associated with the feature will be spent in the White Mountains, and instead, a crisp change to the air mass will take hold overnight Friday into Saturday, making for a pleasant summer weekend.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 64
Saturday – Clearing and pleasant, High 82, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 86, Low 63
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 81, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun High 87, Low 65
Saturday – Mostly sunny; a beautiful start to the weekend High 80, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 86, Low 62
Saturday – Sunny, High 79, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 86, Low 65
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 61
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 64
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 81, Low 62

That looks like some nice weather on it’s way! I’m surprised the forecast wasn’t a bit warmer tomorrow for a lot of outlets, but I wasn’t going to go any higher, so maybe I shouldn’t be that surprised!

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I enjoy a good trip to the Cheese State every now and then. It’s right next door to Victoria-Weather in Minnesota, but it seems so completely alien…

At 103PM, CT, Milwaukee was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 70 degrees. Cloudy skies were widespread across the Great Lakes, as an area of low pressure was slogging through the Canadian Maritimes. While a weak jet ridge was emerging over western Ontario, which was helping build high pressure in the northern Great Lakes, a connector front between the low in New Brunswick and a lee trough kept a chance for precipitation south of Milwaukee.
High pressure is going to remain in place, but fairly weak through the end of the work week. Generally westerly flow will mean generally stable conditions, though with some passing clouds. Guidance is in agreement about a wave moving into the region overnight Thursday into Friday, bringing some showers to end the workweek. The rain won’t last all day, and there will be some clearing by nightfall.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, increasing clouds late with a chance of a storm, High 78, Low 64
Friday – Rain, especially early, with clouds and cooler conditions, High 76, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 78, Low 64
Friday – Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 71, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Humid and warmer with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 79, Low 60
Friday – Times of clouds and sun High 76, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers between 10am and 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 76, Low 63
Friday – A 30 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 75, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of light showers and slight chance of a thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. High 78, Low 62
Friday – Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of light showers. High 71, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 63
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 73, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 78, Low 64
Friday – Possible light rain in the morning. High 72, Low 66

On the whole, I am confused by the group of forecasts! I am far more aggressive with the rain forecasts on Friday than anyone, but everyone is all over the map. The same neighborhood, I guess, but timing is very different all over. Maybe all these clouds have something to do with the confusion.

Roanoke, Virginia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There is a well populated corridor on the Atlantic slope of the Appalachians, stretching from Virginia to the Carolinas. In Virginia, the largest of those towns is Roanoke, where we will forecast today.

At 1254PM, ET, Roanoke was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A trough was weakening, but still lingered over the east coast. An area of surface low pressure which had been responsible for copious rain in the region through the middle of the week was now off shore, being drawn northward towards the mean flow. Extensive clouds with some isolated showers were being seen in southeastern Virginia, but in the west, scattered cumulus were seen, with a ribbed pattern on radar reflecting gravity waves and brisk flow through the clouds.
The clearer air to the west isn’t embodied by a particularly strong air mass, and Roanoke’s position in the lee of the Appalachians opens the possibility of low level moisture leading to morning haze, and the languid retreat of low pressure off shore may indicate some mid level clouds. It won’t be a vividly bright couple of days, but there is definitely enough here to believe that two dry days are ahead.
Tomorrow – Morning haze, then partly cloudy, High 88, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 68
Saturday – Partly sunny and humid with a thunderstorm High 87, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 87, Low 65
Saturday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 69
Saturday – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 86, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 87, low 65
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 89, low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 65
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 65

The threat for thunderstorms is so low, I was surprised to see it start showing up in some forecasts. A lot of texture to the clouds ongoing in the area.

Dubuque, Iowa

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Father’s Day all you dads out there. This forecast is dedicated specifically to the dad’s of Dubuque.

At 953AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure in the northern High Plains was producing brisk southerly winds across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures were on the rise in western Iowa, though Dubuque was still relatively comfortable. High pressure over the Great Lakes is strong enough that the low pressure in the Plains is going to be redirected to the north quite efficiently.
While Dubuque is not expected to get as warm as locations to the west and north, but it will still be very hot in Dubuque to start the week. Part of this will be the southerly flow today, but also, the sunny skies through the beginning of the week. A weak cold front will arrive late on Tuesday that will signal a slight cool down, but isn’t expected to carry much precipitation with it.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny, increasing clouds High 95, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 95, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 97, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 94, Low 66
Tuesday – The temperature near the record of 100 and humid; a t-storm around in the p.m.; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 98, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny and hot High 96, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy sunny, High 91, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 94, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 91, Low 64
Tuesday – Humid throughout the day. High 95, Low 73

IT’s like there are two Dubuques we are forecasting for, and neither of them are really following model guidance closely. Today and tomorrow are going to be hot and sunny.