Punta Gorda, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hurricane season is off to a daunting start, with Beryl already bringing category 4 and 5 damage to islands in the Caribbean, and poised to bring soaking rain to Mexico and the Texas Coast through the remainder of the weekend. Southwest Florida has become a hurricane hot spot over the last few years, after a long era of quiet, and perhaps a bit of complacency, residents of Punta Gorda are going to be eying the tropics more warily.

At 353PM, ET, Punta Gorda was reporting a temperature of 94 degrees with clear skies. Despite Beryl churning, expecting to become a hurricane again before landfalling near Corpus Christi tomorrow, there was a bit of diurnal thunderstorm activity beginning to fire along the coast in Florida near Sarasota, and south of the area, over the Everglades. This activity will continue through the evening, feasting on temperatures in the 90s.
There is a trough through the southeastern US and touching off storms, particularly in Georgia, and this boundary is helping to draw southerly flow across the Sunshine state and exasperating the threat of storms. A weak subtropical feature will drift into the Jacksonville area and make storms more widespread across Florida. The added circulation across the area will tap into the broad Floridian instability, and late Monday looks to be even stormier than today and tomorrow.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 95, Low 77
Monday – Mostly sunny through the day, late evening 93, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early with thunderstorms becoming likely during the afternoon. High 92, Low 78
Monday – Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 91, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 94, Low 77
Monday – Humid with some sun, then turning cloudy High 89, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly sunny High 90. Low 79
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 90 Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 79
Monday – Mostly sunny. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms in the morning then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 90, Low 79
Monday – Partly cloudy with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 79

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 91, Low 79
Monday – Thunderstorm, High 90, Low 78

Clime says just the one thunderstorm in Punta Gorda. I’m going a bit warmer than the rest, following their warm day in Punta Gorda today. A look at the satellite of tropics shows that Beryl isn’t a large storm, but is on her way to Texas.

Utica, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I once had a job where I would issue forecasts regularly for Tunica, Mississippi. It has nothing in common with Utica, except Tunica’s identifier is KUTA, and I had a coworker who regularly called Tunica “Utica”, and that is all I can think of when I think of Utica. I’m sorry, Utica.

At 353PM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees and clear skies. Accompanying this warmth and sunshine was a brisk southerly well, importing still more warm air from the southeast. Low pressure is occluded and winding down over James Bay, but is still allowing for the vigorous southerly flow through western New York. Associated showers and storms won’t enjoy the instability they are seeing in southern Ontario right now, but a stray overnight shower in Utica seems likely.
The evening of Independence Day tomorrow looks OK for fireworks. Orphaned moisture in the mid-Atlantic as the low moves from James Bay to Nunavut will linger and ensure some mid level clouds with light winds. Much of the day will be clear on Friday as well, with a return of warm south winds. The next feature will be emerging in the Upper Midwest through this time, and will bring a more likely shot of rain late on Friday.
Tomorrow – Early showers, then mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 69
Friday – Sunny early with a late shower, High 88, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 86, Low 70
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, very warm and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 67
Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 88, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 69
Friday – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Partly sunny (late rain), High 88, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 69
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 66

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 63

It looks like a warm start to the holiday weekend in western New York. I hope there and everywhere stays healthy and happy, while saying a little prayer for residents of the West Indies and Jamaica, who will spend the time recovering from Hurricane Beryl. As for the Mid-Atlantic, the satellite is more ominous than the forecast portends.

Fairbanks, Alaska

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Fairbanks! Wow. This is certainly one of the most remote, but also one of the smallest towns that get forecast treatment here at Victoria-Weather. It’s a summer forecast as we approach the solstice, so it’s probably going to be a little tame, actually.

At 753PM, Alaskan Time, Fairbanks was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 74. There was a smattering of isolated showers and potentially thunderstorms ringing the city, with the most significant cell around Fort Greely. Deep low pressure south of the Aleutians is churning up moist return flow through southern Alaska, and is contributing to a few orographic showers and storms.
The system will continue eastward over the next couple of days, which will only invigorate the the shower activity in central Alaska. This will allow the activity to become more robust through the forecast period, before beginning to taper a bit in coverage and intensity as the low reaches the Panhandle and British Columbia.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High, 76, Low 54
Friday – Showers and storms early, winding down in the afternoon, High 77, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 75, Low 56
Friday – Partly cloudy skies High 76, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Becoming cloudy with a couple of showers High 76, Low 55
Friday – Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of showers High 76, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1pm and 4pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 4pm High 76, Low 55
Friday – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny High 76, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Haze in the morning. Partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce small hail frequent lightning and heavy rainfall in the afternoon. High 77, Low 59
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 76, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated storms, High 76, Low 56
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 75, Low 55

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 79, Low 54
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 54

Fun fact – I can copy and paste the first three outlets into this post, but I manually type the other forecasts in, so thanks for today ,Weatherbug. I’m not giving you an image, because I am exhausted, but find out more from Amanda Hanson at KTVF in Fairbanks.

Albuquerque, New Mexico

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I spent some time in Albuquerque for a couple of nights, and I wish I had seen more of it. What I will say is that I hope this is a pretty easy forecast, because it takes some serious concentration to spell Albuquerque correctly every time. 3/3 so far!

At 652AM, MT, Albuquerque was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were in the mid-20s, which will allow the temperature to rise fairly swiftly after sunrise. Fortunately, without the humidity, it will merely be hot instead of “oppressive” this afternoon.
A weak upper level trough is going to develop over the next couple of days off of the Baja Peninsula. While the dry line will continue to fire in west Texas, it will initially be dry in New Mexico. The dry line will weaken and the air will become less dry over New Mexico as this low in the Pacific strengthens and starts to send a little bit of moisture to the upper levels. It will still remain hot, even with a few clouds and modestly stickier air on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Hot, High 99, Low 70
Saturday – Hot and partly cloudy, High 98, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 99, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 99, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Hot with periods of sun, becoming breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm in spots; dry thunderstorms can spark new wildfires High 97, Low 69
Saturday – Turning cloudy and hot High 97, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of sprinkles after 3pm. Mostly sunny and hot High 101, Low 67
Saturday – Mostly sunny and hot, High 99, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Hot. Partly cloudy. Chance of sprinkles and thunderstorms, High 100, Low 76
Saturday – Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy with scattered sprinkles in the afternoon, High 101, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 101, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 99, Low 67

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 100, Low 70
Saturday – Sunny, High 97, Low 68

Even if there was something going, I’m surprised by the rain in the forecast. Isn’t it going to evaporate before it reaches the ground?

Killeen, Texas

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We are off, well, not too far from where we had our last forecast. The weather is getting warm, and remaining interesting in Texas, so let’s what that means in Killeen.

At 933AM, CT, Killeen was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Rain has finally shifted out of the area this morning, though the back end of an area of rain extended from Palestine to Austin, and was rotating away from the region. There were flood advisories just to the north, including Waco after another round of heavy rain. Fortunately, this complex of storms is being ushered along by a cool front that is being trailed by dry, stable air.
After the rain shower activity dissipates through the early afternoon in east Texas, a nose of high pressure will build in through the Lone Star State. Moisture will be squashed towards the Gulf Coast, and Thursday looks like it may even be tolerable. Low pressure will quickly reemerge in the Colorado Rockies, however, with moisture reentering the picture from the Gulf. Another humid day will be on the way.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy and more humid, high 95, low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny.  High 97, Low 71
Friday – Sunny. High 98, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 93, Low 74
Friday – Very warm with sunshine and some clouds High 95, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 73
Friday – Sunny, High 95, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 77
Friday – Sunny, High 96, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 73
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 73
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 95, Low 74

The Weather Channel is really buying into a scorching end to the week. Let’s see if they are a bit on the aggressive side. Here is he radar imagery of rain moving on out of town.

Houston, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Most of Texas has seen rough weather this summer, including Houston and the Metroplex. Houston’s came early on in the season, when hundreds of thousands of local residents lost power, and 4 were killed when a squall line moved through the region on May 16th. Now, the heat is building in the south, and surely, that will be story moving forward. Right?

At 453PM, CT, Houston was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with clear skies. Severe weather was forecast from border to border thanks to a broad lee trough sneaking into the Plains from the Rockies. This evening, there are showers and storms as far southeast as a line from Livingston to Hunstville, but these are fueled by moisture from the Gulf streaming into the area of low pressure.
The trough is going to inspire an array of individual short waved lows, including one in north Texas. Tomorrow, showers and storms will remain closely tied to the rotation in northern Texas, which will allow a dry day along the Gulf Coast. The vorticity maximum moving through the south central US won’t be enough to bring rain fall all the way to Houston on Tuesday, but the moisture will lead to morning for and haze before sunrise.
Tomorrow – Sunny and humid, High 92, Low 78
Tuesday – Morning fog and haze 93, Low 79

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible.  High 90, Low 78
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 91, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; patchy fog in the morning and humid, then becoming breezy High 91, Low 78
Tuesday – Partly sunny, windy and humid High 91, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10am and 11am. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 78
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 92, Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. High 91, Low 81
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 92, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 79
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 89, Low 80

CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 90, Low 77
Tuesday – Light rain showers, High 90, Low 77

ABC news in Houston uses Accuweather. Let’s let them put some words behind their forecast, shall we?

Bend, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There hasn’t been much news out of the western US this spring and early summer. That’s good news, because typically, that would mean fires. So let’s check in and see what is happening out there.

At 753PM, PT, Bend was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 70 degrees. There was a ridge at the upper levels driving weather for the Western US right now, and the clear skies should persist, especially inland in Bend through Memorial Day.
There is a trough over the Gulf of Alaska, however, and it is going to swing into the Pacific Northwest. This feature does look to introduce a bit of moisture into the region. While there will be some rain in eastern Oregon, it should be dry in the immediate lee of the Cascades
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 71, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 80, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower HIgh 69, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice High 78, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny (Late rain), High 78, Low 43
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (Late rain), High 77, Low 44
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers, High 69, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 78, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 69, Low 47

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 77, Low 46

There are a variety of rain forecasts, none of which are heavy, so that will certainly be the variable to watch. Right now, however, there isn’t a cloud across Bend.

Cleveland, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Cleveland hosted my Minnesota Twins this weekend, and it didn’t go well for Minnesota. I hope it rains in Cleveland.

At 851PM, ET, Cleveland was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A weak surface trough running through southern Ontario was touching off some storms between Toledo and Fort Wayne, but this activity isn’t expected to continue on to Cleveland. There is a more organized complex of storms in the Plains states, but the upper level pattern is not conducive to sustaining this feature either. Expect some cloudy skies on the horizon throughout most of the day, but rainfall will never reach Cleveland on Monday.
An upper level trough moving through the northern Rockies is going to aid in the development and intensification of the next feature, rising out of the Colorado prairies. This feature is expected to be another severe weather maker for the Plains, and through Tuesday, will encourage a warm front to move northward through the Buckeye State. Some scattered showers and storms will be possible over Lake Erie in the afternoon, with some carry over into Cleveland as well.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 87, Low 64
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with patchy showers possible, High 87, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. Slight chance of a rain shower High 85, Low 65
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 84, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and very warm High 84, Low 67
Tuesday – Very warm with times of clouds and sun high 84, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 66
Tuesday – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 84, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 84, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 67
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 81, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 82, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 72

The radar is showing some of the activity northwest of town. The forecasts are showing some widely different opinions.

State College, Pennsylvania

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I hope everyone has been enjoying the Northern Lights where they have been available. Now, we’re going to take a forecast trip to one of the homes of our forecast competitors, Accuweather.

At 853PM, ET, State College was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A shortwave moved through the region last night and through the morning, and scattered showers have now departed the area as the wave attempts to merge with a large feature off shore. This will give State College a bit of dry weather through tomorrow morning.
The next couple of features are coming from the Canadian Prairies, where a weak boundary is sliding through, while a stronger feature in the High Plains is emerging from the south. The cold front will drape north of the Pennsylvania border for most of the day on Monday, which will mean cloudy skies and chances for rain, but the feature rising from the southwest will bring more moisture and instability to the region. It is liable to be rainier with a chance of thunderstorms throughout Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a spot of rain possible, High 74, Low 47
Tuesday – Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms, High 68, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny High 73, Low 50
Tuesday – Generally sunny. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 72, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant and warmer with times of clouds and sun High 75, Low 43
Tuesday – Cloudy and not as warm with a couple of showers High 68. Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 76, Low 42
Tuesday – A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. high 71, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon, High 67, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 43
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with light showers and chance of storms, High 71, Low 55

CLI: Tomorrow – Clear, High 75, Low 44
Tuesday – Rain Showers, High 68, Low 54

I’m the only one with rain potentially for Monday. It feels like rain should fall on Mondays, right? Here is the sattelite, showing the field of clouds, drifting away and clearing the way for new rain.

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Goldsboro, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

My latest update referred back to Boise, and how close to spring it was getting even there. In the Carolinas, I think this would have been a pretty late breaking bit of news. They are aware.

At 255PM, ET, Goldsboro was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 85 degrees. Three was a bullseye of 90 nearby in Raleigh, but it is warm everywhere in the Carolinas. Fortunately, temperatures are not being boosted further by sweltering humidity, with dew points below 60. While things have been active in the center of the country, the east coast is dominated by an upper level ridge.
The latent alto cumulus that just exists in the southeast throughout the summer thanks to oceanic and Gulf moisture seems to be reaching a barrier at the southern end of the Appalachians, and isn’t moving across theSome sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Very warm border from South Carolina. A boundary moving into the region from the west will arrive at the Appalachians on Saturday morning and struggle to get moisture into the Carolina Plains as well, however the persistent flow over the mountains will lead to some lee troughing. This localized circulation will draw some moisture into the area, and late shower activity is possible Saturday in Goldsboro.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 63
Saturday – Late clouds with a chance of showers, High 83, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Very warm High 89, Low 63
Saturday – Cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm High 89. Low 63
Saturday – Cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later High 83, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 62
Saturday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 88, Low 68
Saturday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 87, Low 62
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 80, Low 64

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 63
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 81, Low 64

You can see the scattered clouds through South Carolina that just filter out when you hit the Tar Heel State.