Huntsville, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Sunday, thank you for joining us for our second Alabama forecast in a week. I think this might be less interesting than Birmingham a few days ago.

At 953PM, CT, Huntsville was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Dew points mirrored the temperature, and a bit of overcast and fog was settling in over the southern part of the state, likely to encroach on Huntsville overnight as well.
Parallel troughs are leading to deeply occluded surface low pressure, the first headed towards Hudson Bay, and a developing low along the lingering boundary over the central Plains. This feature is leading to the return flow and ambient moisture throughout Alabama. Monday will be a fairly humid da for early March. There will be a threat for a rogue sprinkle, but the real threat for rain is coming early on Tuesday. A vorticity maximum analyzed by most models is seen emerging around New Orleans and headed east through southern Alabama on Tuesday. This should limit the capacity for thunderstorms or particularly heavy rain in Huntsville, though the day is still liable to be fairly dreary.
Tomorrow – Fog early, then mostly cloudy with some isolated showers, High 75, Low 58
Tuesday – Scattered showers and overcast, High 66, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early. Mostly cloudy skies. High 75, Low 59
Tuesday – Showers and thundershowers in the morning, then cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon. High 66, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm with a shower in places High 75, Low 57
Tuesday – Cloudy and not as warm with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 67, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 74, Low 59
Tuesday – A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 7am High 69, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 73, Low 59
Tuesday – Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning then showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 67, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 74, Low 59
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 68, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 54
Tuesday – Drizzle, High 66, Low 55

I’m impressed by the outlets leaving rain out tomorrow. They could certainly be right, but I was too chicken to leave it fully out. I worry for Clime’s low temperature forecast. Check out the satellite, with fog really starting to slip into the bayous along the coast.

Birmingham, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Should we try to get kind of crazy today? Let’s try to get two forecasts in in one day!

At 1053AM, CT, Birmingham was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with light rain. The rain was popping up on radar a few miles ahead of more significant weather. Thunderstorms will be moving into Birmingham within the hour, and are presently lined up from north of Warrior to north of Aliceville, and will bring primarily a threat of some gusty winds, rain and thunder.
A healthy cold pool will chase the front out of town, leaving a cool afternoon in northern Alabama, followed by a crisp morning tomorrow. The jet structure is bifurcated right now, so despite a strong ridge to the north, Texas will be a ripe environment for cyclogenesis late this week. A much weaker feature than either the storm that is going to sweep through momentarily, or the strong system preparing to slam the west coast will develop in Texas and slide into Alabama on Friday morning, bringing a few showers and storms to Alabama’s largest city.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and chilly, increasing clouds late, High 52, Low 37
Friday – Scattered showers, cloudy, High 52, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, slight chance of a rain shower, High 55, Low 36
Friday – Cloudy with periods of rain, high 54, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler High 53, low 36
Friday – Periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 54, low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 54, low 34
Friday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 53, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 55, Low 39
Friday – Showers, a slight chance of a thunderstorm in the morning, then a chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, High 53, low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy, High 56, Low 35
Friday – Mostly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 53, Low 45

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 59, Low 33
Friday – Rain showers, High 56, Low 45

We see a lot of towns in Alabama, but we don’t often touch on Birmingham. While we are here, we are getting some active weather, though! Radar shows this line of thunderstorms on the door steps.

Birmingham,

Merced, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve had a few western forecasts of late, but if there was ever a year to spend a lot of forecasting energy in California, it’s this year.

At 653AM, PT, Merced was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with clear skies. It was a chilly start to the day that will ultimately stay fairly clear and cool. Clouds will increase late in the day, however and give rise to a much more interesting day tomorrow. Presently, Merced is between two strands of a strong jet; a broad trough to the south, allowing cooler air to the region, and a wavier northern jet, which is ridged at this time, leading to the clear conditions seen in town today.
Of course, with the waves, this means a trough is on its way shortly. Strong low pressure is tied to this wave, moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, and it is expected to retain some of that strength through the day tomorrow. A cold front will arrive in the afternoon tomorrow, starting at least 36 hours of rain, heavy at times in Merced, and vigorous snow in the mountains, with blizzard warnings already out for the Sierras. It will be quite cool for residents of Merced, and by the time the system gets out of the way on Sunday, a snowflake or two could reach the central Valley and hit Merced on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, with rain in the afternoon, High 63, Low 43
Friday – Rain, heavy at times, High 59, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to occasional showers in the afternoon. High 66, Low 45
Friday – Showers early becoming a steady light rain later in the day. High 59, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then clouds with a shower late in the afternoon; significant snow expected in the mountains; travel will be dangerous, if not impossible east High 65, Low 44
Friday – Cloudy with showers High 62, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely after 4pm. Increasing clouds, High 65, Low 43
Friday – Rain, High 60, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain in the afternoon, High 65, Low 43
Friday – Rain, High 60, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain likely, High 64, Low 45
Friday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 59, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 64, Low 45
Friday – Light rain showers, High 63, Low 48

It’s going to be regular nasty, not just California nasty with this system. Accuweather kind of expanded the radius of where Merced is, but they aren’t wrong. It might be downright impassable late this week in the Sierras. But look how nice thing look right now!

Ocean City, New Jersey

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We keep bouncing from coast to coast, so that means for this forecast, we’re hitting the East Coast.

At 1154PM, ET, Ocean City was seeing temperatures of 46 degrees and overcast skies. Rain was pressing north, and the back end of the line lay from Trenton to Farmingdale, with Long Island and southern New England seeing sustained shower activity. The upper level pattern is complicated. The deepest area of low pressure is in Canada, but a more generalized trough extends from New England to the Carolinas. Overnight, a southern, secondary low will develop in the Smokey Mountains and shift off shore through tomorrow evening, bringing more rain to Ocean City through Friday.
On Saturday, the low will move offshore and start headed to the Maritimes and pull cold air into the mid-Atlantic. There will be some snow in the northern Appalachians, but only patchy clouds and a return of cooler temperatures are expected to start the weekend in Ocean City.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, especially in the early afternoon, High 48, Low 42
Saturday – Clearing, High 44, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning becoming a steady light rain in the afternoon High 51, Low 42
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 44, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Occasional rain; breezy this morning; a brief cold shot to start the weekend High 49, Low 42
Saturday – A shower in spots in the morning; otherwise, breezy with times of clouds and sun High 44, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely. Patchy fog after 8am. Otherwise, cloudy High 50, Low 41
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 42, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Rain likely. Patchy fog. High 48, Low 43
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 44, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain, High 48, Low 44
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 44, Low 32

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, H8gh 50, Low 36
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, High 44, Low 20

Temperatures are going to hover and steadily drop. It’s possible all highs and lows are around midnight, so that stinks for my ability to hammer this out quickly. Here is the radar, with rain pulling away, for now, from Ocean City.

San Diego, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re forecasting in southern California today. It’s been a rainy start to the week, which has become a regular trend this month.

At 751AM, ET, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 51 degrees with overcast skies. The most recent band of rain showers was still leading to reports of light rain in Oceanside, but was starting to peel away from the coastal areas, and becoming an issue primarily for the Inland Empire and Mohave Desert. In the wake of another rain event, there are flood watches throughout the San Diego area.
A smattering of light showers will continue throughout the day, particularly in the higher terrain of southern California, with an end coming before nightfall. Robust onshore flow at the upper levels will likely lead to some cloudy conditions even after the rain ends. A large area of low pressure off the coast of northern California is expected to linger, sending moisture rich ocean air at the low levels as well, which may mean morning fog the next couple of days in San Diego, but there will be a break from the rain until at least next week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 52
Friday – Morning haze and fog, then clearing, High 70, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 64, low 51
Friday – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 70, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning; otherwise, clouds giving way to some sun; a welcome break from recent heavy rain High 64, Low 49
Friday – Patchy fog in the morning; otherwise, clouds giving way to some sun High 70, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny High 64, Low 49
Friday – Sunny, High 70, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 50
Friday – Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny, High 68, Low 48

WN: tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 64, low 51
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 48
Friday – Sunny, High 70, Low 45

What a relief for San Diego to start coming out of this soggy week. It might even warm up a bit over the coming days and help San Diego feel more like San Diego again. Not much left on radar, fortunately.

Springfield, Massachusetts

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I am sure this is something you all know out in New England, but I learned recently that Springfield is actually serviced by Hartford’s Bradley International Airport. They are so close!

At 1055AM, ET, Springfield was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 31. There is a steady north wind thanks to a vast gyre off the coast of New England, and some scattered clouds north of Massachusetts, but despite these factors working against the town, a pleasant February day is anticipated.
Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place for the next few days, but a jet ridge will start nosing into the area by the end of the week, with a warm front nosing in on Thursday, really bringing about a warming trend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 26
Thursday – Partly cloudy, a bit warmer, High 47, low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 44, Low 25
Thursday – Plentiful sunshine. High 47, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 46, Low 24
Thursday – Sunny and mild High 48, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow Sunny, High 43, Low 24
Thursday – Sunny, High 46, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 28
Thursday – Sunny, High 45, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 24
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 46, low 25

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 25
Thursday – Sunny, High 50, Low 25

Wow, Clime is going for the gusto, boldly putting Springfield at 50. We’ll see how that goes.

San Luis Obispo, California

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

This has been a busy January. Not only have we had a lot of forecasts, but they have all been during or very close to significant weather. The real test will be if we can keep it up with a forecast in California.

AT 256PM, PT, San Luis Obispo was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with overcast skies. A weak wave was moving through the Pacific Northwest, and sweeping a mid level cold front as far south as Point Conception. There were scattered showers through out the region, though right now, the heaviest precipitation is diminishing between San Luis Obispo and Bakersfield, with another batch closer to Los Angeles.
The rain is expected to linger in the area, though mostly inland from San Luis Obispo and south towards the LA Basin. The onshore flow behind the boundary will mean that San Luis Obispo will see some overcast through the day Thursday even if they don’t get much more rain. An advancing ridge should bring clearer skies to end the work week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a few breaks late. Early sprinkles, High 64, Low 50
Friday – Sunny with a bit of morning haze, High 72, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67, Low 53
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 72, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds giving way to sunshine High 70, Low 55
Friday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 74, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy drizzle before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 65, Low 51
Friday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. Patchy drizzle in the morning, High 67, Low 53
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with patchy drizzle, High 66, Low 51
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 49

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 50
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 48

It IS raining in southern California, but things are improving quickly. Now, here is the ultra rare SOCAL RADAR!

Charlotte, North Carolina

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It’s a Carolina kind of day here at Victoria-Weather, after the earlier verification in South Carolina. What will we look forward to in the coming days in North Carolina?

At 952PM, ET, Charlotte was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with overcast skies. Coastal North Carolina finds itself between a strong offshore low, and a wave sweeping in from the Great Lakes. The wave is ushering in cold air, while the strong low is inducing more rain and convective activity. The Great Lakes feature is dragging a cold front across the Appalachians right now, with rain and some sleet reported in the far western reaches at Andrews of the state. Not much, if any of this moisture will descend the mountains into Charlotte, but that doesn’t mean a dry 24 hours for the Queen City.
Light precipitation is going to linger in the area through most of the morning as the offshore low intensifies and adopts the clipper moving in from the northwest. While most of the moisture will be spent in the mountains, the cold air will not be. This will be a prime opportunity for cold air damming, but temperatures will still be chillier for the beginning of the weekend. Cold high pressure will trap the chilly temperatures
Tomorrow – A bit of drizzle, then clearing with temperatures dropping, High 48, Low 28
Saturday – Clear but quite cold, High 33, Low 18

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies with gusty winds developing during the afternoon. (early rain) High 48, Low 30
Saturday – Sunny. High 34, Low 20

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy; breezy in the afternoon (Early rain) High 49, Low 29
Saturday – Plenty of sunshine, but colder High 34, Low 22

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Early rain, High 47, Low 26
Saturday – Sunny High 33, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny early, then clearing, (early rain) High 47, Low 28
Saturday – Sunny, High 33, Low 23

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (early rain), High 47, Low 25
Saturday – Sunny, High 33, Low 18

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny (early rain) High 50, Low 27
Saturday – Sunny, High 36, Low 19

A pretty chilly day for Charlotte, shortly after a pretty chilly forecast for Dallas. I should note, that everyone had rain through about 5AM, but that doesn’t translate to their daily forecast. Here comes the rain on radar.

Dallas, Texas

Ryan Henning 2 Comments

The weather of Texas isn’t supposed to be like it’s been. Alas, it is January, and we have a robust, strong jet stream leading to an equally strong, robust surface pattern. Let’s continue to discuss.

At 253PM, CT, Dallas was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with fair skies and a brisk south wind. High pressure has set up in the southeastern US, which is bringing about the southerly flow, however with the strong jet structure, another trough emerging is leading to a transient pattern, and todays blustery conditions.
The next upper level trough will have little reflection in terms of a well structured cyclone or precipitation, but the cold air mass will be defined and strong as it presses southward. It will remain dry and snow free in the MetroPlex, however even colder air will head south for the region on Thursday night.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy, High 53, Low 32
Friday – Chilly in the morning, partly cloudy, High 37, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 57, Low 33
Friday – Sunny, High 36, Low 25

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer with plenty of sunshine High 55, Low 30
Friday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, very cold with plenty of sunshine; after a brief break, very cold air returns High 36, Low 23

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 56, Low 32
Friday – Sunny, High 36, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 51, Low 31
Friday – Sunny, Much cooler, High 36, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 32
Friday – Sunny, High 36, Low 24

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 55, Low 33
Friday – Sunny, High 39, Low 23

Brr! That’s a cold Friday for most people, and especially in Texas. At least there isn’t the added challenge of driving in the snow or ice this time around. Clear skies overhead for the Lone Star State at this time.

Lansing, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to Michigan’s capital to put together a forecast in the wake of yet another round of significant wintry weather. Are we in for a pause?

At 453PM, ET, Lansing was reporting a temperature of 5 degrees and a brisk northwest wind. The slow start to winter has led to a Lake Michigan much more capable of producing lake effect snow, and it is compounding the accumulations in the wake of yesterday’s event. All told, Lansing has received only a couple of inches, but over a foot has fallen along the lakeshore. A strong area of low pressure was retrograding to the west over Hudson Bay, sending brisk northwest winds to ensure that visibilities, even in the light snow, would be challenged.
Low pressure in Canada will continue to spin thanks to the support of a strong jet trough. At the surface over the center of the country, high pressure will build in. This will dry out most of the country, the part that relies on the Gulf of Mexico for it’s moisture, however the combination of features will only bring about gustier west winds in Michigan. Expect persistent west winds and some intermittent snow showers throughout the forecast period.
Tomorrow – Overcast with light snow, High 8, Low 0
Tuesday – Continued wind and clouds with light snow, High 9, Low 3

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy High 11, Low -4
Tuesday – Cloudy skies. Continued very cold. High 7, Low 4

AW: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with flurries, frigid; breezy in the morning; bitter cold; be sure to wear layers High 10, Low -1
Tuesday – Low clouds and bitterly cold; bitter cold; be sure to wear layers High 8, Low 6

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy and cold, High 10, Low -1
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy and cold,  High 9, Low 5

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. Areas of blowing snow, High 9, Low 0
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 9, Low 6

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with slight chance of light snow showers, High 10, Low -1
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with slight chance of light snow showers, High 9, Low 5

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 13, Low -3
Tuesday – Light snow showers, High 12, Low 3

Here is a look at the radar, which is going to look pretty familiar for lower Michigan radar watchers for the next couple of days.