11:31PM: This is getting fairly repetitive. Severe weather keeps churning in central South Dakota, and a bit of convection continues into southwest Minnesota, particularly around Montevideo and Willmar. It’s been doing this for a couple of days now! The pattern is changing for tomorrow and the weekend.
Updates 6/3
11:15PM: The somewhat tepid looking June is living up to the forecast we discussed yesterday. The SPC is looking at isolated severe weather in the Northern Plains for the next few days, but nothing like a major outbreak. The Southeast looks dry. Not much is changing, but there isn’t anything overwhelming ongoing either
Updates 6/2
7:47PM: There are severe storms in the Dakotas this evening, but a bunch of dry air ahead of them. Fire danger is high in the Northwoods of Minnesota and into Wisconsin. It sure would be nice for the weather to reach this area (the rain, not the severe stuff), but it is not to be.
11:51PM: As I noted earlier this week, El Nino should render the Atlantic hurricane season a bit milder. But it’s going to be busier in the Pacific, starting…. now.
The outlook at the head of summer
June 1 is an inflection point on the meteorological calendar. It is the beginning of hurricane season, and the beginning of the meteorological summer season. Meteorological summer is marked by very warm temperatures in the south, along with dry conditions in the west and a steady diet of thunderstorms in the southeast. Also, the onus for severe weather shifts to the north. June itself is the most active severe period for the northern Plain and western Great Lakes.
How will this summer fit with the standard summer?
Precipitation has several areas that are expected to be outside of the normal ranges, but they are generally small, and could go either way. The only stand out is the Rockies, where it looks like the monsoon should be particularly active this summer.
The temperatures offer a different tale. The west in particular will be warmer than normal, with the south also expected to be above normal. The hot get hotter.
Enjoy the heat, stay hydrated, and have a good summer.
Updates 6/1
9:01: Happy meteorological summer, everyone! 6/1 is the beginning of meteorological summer, and probably closer to the beginning of what the lay person calls summer. Astronomical summer, of course, begins on June 21st. That’s a sad day, though, as days start getting shorter then. Hooray daylight! Hooray Pennsylvania, without a cloud in the sky! Well, too late, I guess. It is 10 there now.
