I have a general rule of thumb in the winter. I won’t believe it is done snowing until it is actually done snowing. If there are flurries, I’m just going to keep those flurries in the forecast. There are thermodynamic reasons for this that maybe I can get into at another time. Those thermodynamic reasons don’t apply to light rain showers, but perhaps I should have heeded that “just leave it in the forecast” ethos when forecasting for Elkhart last month. Rain looked like it was on the way out of town when I produced the forecast, but it didn’t leave on Thursday the 23rd, as I assumed it would. It also didn’t leave on Friday, which more of us didn’t think was the future in Elkhart. This soggy end of the week was best handled by the National Weather Service, who collected a forecast win.
Actuals October 23rd: .07″ of rain, High 51, Low 37
October 24th, .02″ of rain, High 53, Low 34

Grade: C-D