from Victoria-Weather
After we were looking forward to a hot couple of weeks for really most of the country, today, we can look at the outlook and see cooler air is on the horizon. Let’s hope that the cool down comes entirely at the hands of an advancing cold front and not Hurricane Lee. (I should note that it is NOT likely to be the result of Lee)
Lee, presently in the North Atlantic, already looking for a trip to the Eastern Seaboard, is a big, scary storm. He’s going to be a Cat 4 before all is said and done, and a Cat 5 is not out of the question. Fortunately, this is the forecast map for Saturday.
That coastal feature should be just enough to shunt Lee away from the coast. Remember that if you are lamenting the weekend rain out East this weekend.
It’s been a long year for Accuweather. Coming into August, they still hadn’t had a solo win on a single forecast all year. August is through, and Accuweather still hasn’t won a forecast for themselves. They tied for the win on three this month, however, and that consistency earned them the Forecaster of the Month title.
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| Victoria-Weather | 5.83 |
| The Weather Channel | 4.83 |
| Clime | 2.83 |
| National Weather Service | 2.5 |
| WeatherNation | 2.5 |
| Weatherbug | 2.5 |
| Accuweather | 2 |
On the 22nd, we put together a forecast for Trenton, where weather was looking fine. It continued as such for most of Wednesday the 23rd as well, but in the afternoon, things went from clear to cloudy in the span of a couple of hours, and then Trenton sat in the sludge for the rest of the forecast period. there was a little bit of rain that came with the overcast, which put Clime off of the victory, and instead handed it to the unlikely duo of Accuweather and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday August 23rd, High 78, Low 59
Wednesday – August 24th, .15 inches of rain, High 72, Low 66
Grade: B-C
We’ve reached the end of summer, and with it, the peak of hurricane season. With that in mind, expect some lighter site forecasting, and a bit more “big story” coverage for the next couple of weeks.
Lake Havasu City, Nevada
Evansville, Indiana
Hot weather is roasting the middle of the country on this Labor Day, but it’s going to break, at least in the northern part of the country thanks to a round of severe weather moving through the Upper Midwest. The peak of the heat for New England looks like it will come on Thursday of this week. Below are the highs for Thursday
We’ve spent some time looking at the temperature trends for September, including some outlooks for the temperature over the next few weeks. Also illustrative, though, is the severe weather outlook. Much cooler weather is coming behind the severe weather.
Additionally, with crops still in the ground, if things get cooler and clearer pretty quick, all that moisture will lead to some foggy mornings, further helping keep temperatures in check. It’s right around the corner.
Even the Duluth WFO is posting things like this about the heat.
Thunderstorms are coming to the area Tuesday night. Expect an abrupt end to the heat wave.
By now, I’m guessing many of you have assessed the forecast ahead of Labor Day as you make your holiday weekend plans. I hope it includes a pool, cold drinks or plenty of air conditioning. Not only is it expected to be warm, but expect record breaking heat through the center of the country. Here in the Twin Cities, triple digits aren’t out of the question.
While it will be a blast furnace from Wisconsin to the Dakotas and south through the Plains, it will be much more comfortable on the coasts, except, I should note, around the DC/Baltimore area, where it’s going to be abnormally warm as well.
After the weekend, the heat will ease a little bit, but it’s still going to be danged hot, especially for the areas surrounding west Texas. Note that the heat is also going to arrive in New England and the Mid-Atlantic.
The rest of the month, after the 7th-11th looks to mostly temper. but still fairly warm. One bit of good news is that it looks wetter than normal in the Plains, which will stymie any growing drought concerns in the Plains.
I famously am constantly in need of an editor, someone to review my spelling, and in some cases, such as two weeks ago when I put together a forecast for Yuba City, California, to make sure I made any sense. I suggested that diurnal convection might feel “left out” and bring shade to the town, and said that it is “night” that we are seeing clouds instead of smoke on the satellite this summer in California. I even spelled night correctly. I published the forecast after midnight, Victoria-Weather time, which was a big part of the problem, but despite all that, we managed to have the best numbers for Yuba City, tied with The Weather Channel. High pressure in the area provided the clear skies (and left those clouds out) needed to bump temperatures right on up to 106 on the 15th. Maybe I just need to start writing more in the middle of the night?
Actuals: Monday, August 14th, High 100, Low 74
Tuesday, August 15th, High 106, Low 67
Grade: B – C