It’s been pleasantly cool across the northern portion for the country, at least for the last few days, so it’s a bit unusual to look at a forecast for a place like Joplin from the beginning of last week and see temperatures still pinging the low 90s. Victoria-Weather stayed close to the NAM, which had a warmer solution, and that paid off, giving us a narrow victory, in a sweaty SW Missouri. : Actuals: Monday- High 91, low 64 Tuesday – High 93, low 69
We’re going on a westward journey, trying to head away from Tropical Depression Florence. The trip will take a day and a half, spending a lot of time astride of the waterlogged Appalachians, and covering 907 miles. The first day will be through after 528 of our miles have been covered thanks to a pace of 66mph. Let’s find some dry land.
DAY ONE (Monday) As we head southwest out of town, it will seem we are headed for the part of the country that had the worst taste of Florence, but we will be on the Tennessee side of the border, likely able to avoid the threat of flash flooding on the well maintained interstates. Florence will be moving northeast, as it happens, so while we will still be driving through her rains, they will be diminishing throughout the drive. We might even break into some dry roadways around Nashville. Rain will be intermittent to non existent for our drive in western Kentucky. We’ll stop in Calvert City, Kentucky, a town that might not endure any rain from the broad scope of Florence. That will be nice, as we will definitely want to dry out.
DAY TWO (Tuesday) Tuesday will be about as different from Monday as you could hope. High pressure will be seated right in the middle of the country. A disturbance in the Dakotas might bring some clouds or a very isolated shower as far south as northern Missouri, but we’ll be sitting pretty in the southern part of the state, where Joplin will be hot, humid and bathed in sun.
The weather community in the United States is rightfully keeping our focus on the Carolinas this weekend as Florence continues to drench the region. Joplin is another place, though, with a sad note in American weather history. Hopefully, there is nothing traumatic on the way for the Ozarks this September.
At 453PM, CT, Joplin was reporting an extraordinary 89 degrees with mostly clear skies. Temperatures this warm this late into the year a pretty unusual, and the sunny skies in the region don’t suggest a change in the near future. The current pattern is quite long ranged, with a broad upper level jet stretching from California to the St. Lawrence Seaway. The essentially straight jet, in addition to Florence holding up traffic in the east, means that the broad area of high pressure in the central Plains isn’t going anywhere. Expect more sun and more warmth to begin the week in Joplin, Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 68 Tuesday – Sunny, High 92, Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 90, Low 67 Tuesday – Mainly sunny High 90, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow Mostly sunny; very warm and humid High 89, Low 67 Tuesday – Mostly sunny; humid High 90, Low 71
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 69 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 70
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67 Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 69 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 70
FIO: Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 68 Tuesday Clear throughout the day. High 90, Low 69
I’m going with a warmer solution, contrary to my counterparts. The NAM isn’t usually the most reliable, but in the middle of the continent, it can be, and it has been in the past 24 hours. Satellite here is focused on Florence, but even if it doesn’t afflict Joplin, it’s worth looking at.
We’re on the road again this evening, but today’s trip will be a short little trek. We’re only going to take about 4 1/2 hours to cover 302 miles through Oklahoma before we call it a day at the southwest corner of Missouri. Let’s set forth and see if anything is going on in the Sooner State.
High pressure in the middle of the country is leading to unpleasantly cold air just being parked smack dab along our route, but it’s starting to retreat. As high pressure relents, there is a little bit of rising air in the Plains, which is leading to some flurries over eastern Kansas. Some of those snow showers will make their way into southwestern Missouri in the morning and might still be hanging around Joplin when we arrive. The rest of the drive, the part in Oklahoma, on the other hand, will be a pretty great drive. Stay in the car though, because it will be fairly chilly in Oklahoma, and not a soul will be out to say hi to you.
After a cold front moved through the Joplin area late last week, clouds hung around well beyond their welcome. There was never any clearing, which was somewhat unexpected. We all knew that Friday was probably a lost cause, but the continued cloudiness on Saturday was a real downer. Temperatures were at least 5 degrees off the most conservative estimates, and some of those clouds even led to a bit of drizzle mid-day on Saturday, which was almost entirely unexpected. Accuweather wasn’t quite as on their heels as other outlets, and picked up on that precipitation forecast, but their temperatures were far enough off, that the best they could do was a tie with The Weather Channel for the title in Joplin.
Actuals: Friday – High 62, Low 50
Saturday – Trace of rain, High 67, Low 49
Let’s take a nice little trip out west. And by nice, I mean one in which we will almost certainly have to head through freshly snow covered mountain passes. The drive is going to take 3 days, with a pretty long day to wrap things up. The drive will cover 1887 miles at a pace of nearly 70mph, which will allow us to net 559 miles a day on those first two days of travel. I think we can handle this, snow and all!
DAY ONE (Sunday)
A cold front sneaking south through the Plains will bring some early morning drizzle and rain to eastern Kansas and western Missouri, which will be an auspicious start to what already promises to be a challenging journey. Fortunately, we will be north and west of the front by the time we hit I-70 at Salina. It will be cool and cloudy the rest of the way as high pressure settles in for a little while. We will make it into Colorado and the small town of Vona in the Plains as we prepare for the more scenic drives through the mountains.
DAY TWO (Monday)
The last day before we really lay it all on the table with a 700+ mile journey, we will contend with difficult enough weather. The city travel, in Denver and Cheyenne, will be just fine. We will pass through with little to no bother, save for the ever present risk of a traffic jam. When we reach the Elk Mountain area of Wyoming, however, we will start seeing delays of a different sort. Especially in the high terrain, don’t be surprised to see some light snow the rest of the way to Evanston, the stop for the day, with more significant bursts of snow in the mountain passes.
DAY THREE (Tuesday)
Fortunately, the snow that we see in Wyoming will be part of the last of a multi speared assault on the west coast. We will see a clear path forged ahead of us through Utah and Nevada, which have ducked any significant weather so far this season. The trek through the Sierras might still be slow as the area digs out from the first major rounds of snow in that part of the world, but we will arrive in a clearer, drier Chico than the one it has been the last couple of days.
Joplin is one of those cities what will always echo in the memories of meteorologists. It was the home of one of the largest tornadoes in history, and always seems to be in the crosshairs of something ominous. Let’s hope that’s not the case tonight!
At 953PM, CT, Joplin was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast skies. A cold front has moved through this evening and lies south of Branson and Rolla, but isn’t yet to West Plains or Harrison, Arkansas, and there are a few thunderstorms remaining along the line. Chilly high pressure is on its way south into the Plains to ensure the rest of the evening will be dry.
An undercutting jet streak in the central Rockies will help stir up more trouble sooner rather than later. The pattern in the central US will be muddled, but a strong area of low pressure will be developing in the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. A resultant return flow will bring overcast and some light precipitation to the region tomorrow evening into early Saturday morning. A warmer high pressure will return to Joplin just in time for the weekend.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with some late showers, High 61, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny, High 72, Low 49
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 63, Low 50
Saturday – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 72, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy and cooler; an afternoon shower in places High 65, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and warmer with a passing shower High 74, Low 49
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of drizzle before 4pm, then a slight chance of showers or drizzle after 4pm. Patchy fog before 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, High 61, Low 52
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 78, Low 53
WB: Tomorrow – Cooler.Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morrning. Slight chance of drizzle through the day. High 62, Low 52
Saturday – Warmer. Partly sunny. High 71, Low 50
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with slight chance of light drizzle, High 61, Low 52
Partly cloudy, Hgh 78, Low 53
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day and breezy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 64, Low 53
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 71, Low 53
We’re all over the map on this forecast. The placement of clouds and how much sun can actually peak through will really affect the reliability of this forecast! Here is the radar, with showers already through town.
Temperature forecasting didn’t work out perfectly for our winner in Joplin. They ended up behind 4 other competitors based solely on temperature forecasting alone. They ended up nosing ahed of everyone else, however, when Joplin saw a few drops of rain, that launched Forecast.io to the top spot, thanks to being one of only 2 outlets to correctly foresee rain. It was only a little bit, but the spritz of shower activity was perfect for FIO.
Actuals: Sunday – High 82, Low 63
Monday – Trace of rain, High 87, Low 62
Today we have a short road trip between neighboring Midwestern states. There shouldn’t be many weather delays on this 1-day trip, right?
There could be some clouds lingering over eastern Iowa as low pressure pushes into the Ohio Valley, but rain showers should be long gone and the clouds should dissipate not long into the day. With high pressure moving over the region, conditions should be sunny and dry for the duration of the trip as we cruise through Des Moines and head south on I-35 past Kansas City and then on I-49 the rest of the way. Easy peasy!
Tonight we head off to Joplin, I can only imagine the weather for this coming weekend is better than what we all think about when we hear their name.
At 1153pm CDT, the temperature at Joplin, MO was 67 degrees under fair skies. An area of low pressure is shifting out of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and through the Ohio Valley on its’ way into the Northeast. Behind it, a weak area of high pressure is shifting over western Missouri which should clear things out for Saturday. Sunday should start off pretty nice as well as the high shifts south. Clouds will increase in the evening, however, as a summertime Alberta Clipper drops down into the Upper Midwest, spreading some showers and storms. This system will continue southward into IL Sunday evening, extending the threat of a few rain showers all the way into the Joplin area. Odds are the activity should stay north until early Monday morning, but can’t completely rule out the chance of a rain shower impacting the area.
Saturday: Morning clouds, sunny for afternoon. High 81, Low 64.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, chance of a late evening rain shower. High 85, Low 60.
TWC: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 82, Low 64.
Sunday: Sunny. High 87, Low 61.
AW: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 63.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 61.
NWS: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 63.
Sunday: Sunny. High 85, Low 62.
WB: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 63.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 62.
WN: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 64.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 63.
FIO: Saturday: Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 80, Low 64.
Sunday: Evening rain shower possible. High 86, Low 63.
A couple light showers were in the area earlier this evening, but have since dissipated. Meanwhile, clusters of thunderstorms continue rolling through AR and TX.