Springing a leak

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The verification in Killeen seemed to be perfectly in order. Victoria-Weather, in fact, ended up with only two degrees of error in the forecast. There were a few outlets that were narrowly off the pace, which would have been an A forecast for our group, if it weren’t for one thing. It rained on both days of the verification, and nobody had it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather ended up with the victory, but it wasn’t as gaudy as it could have been.
Actuals – June 6th, .02″ of rain, High 94, Low 72
June 7th, .01″ of rain, High 94, Low 72

Grade: C-D

Dry for a couple of days

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Houston has had a wet spring. It’s either been raining or it’s been excessively humid. Wet. For a couple of days in June, though, temperatures were hot, but not oppressive. It was humid, but it has certainly been worse. Many outlets still thought rain would be on the way during our forecast period at the beginning of June. Among those was WeatherNation. It didn’t rain on the 3rd or 4th, but that didn’t set WeatherNation back far enough to fall out of first place, thanks to a top notch temperature forecast.
Actuals: Monday June 3rd, High 88, Low 79
Tuesday June 4th, High 90, Low 81

Grade: A-C

A no frills cool down

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Temperatures cooled over our forecast period last week in Bend, and with that kind of a cool down, one might expect some showers or storms to go along with it. There were some, even some noted as being nearby last Tuesday, but nothing that actually fell in town, because Bend is in the rain shadow of the Cascades. It gets colder with cold fronts without the mess of a shower or thunderstorm! Victoria-Weather narrowly edged others in this forecast to earn victory.
Actuals: Monday – High 82, Low 43
Tuesday – High 68, Low 45

Grade: B-C

Being wrong, and making it interesting

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

A thing that I often forget when forecasting in Cleveland, is that their official statistics are measured at Burke Lakefront Airport, and not Cleveland International. This makes a difference! Being by the lakeshore, especially earlier in the year, can keep temperatures cooler than they do further away from the Lake, and I was kicking myself as I came away from the forecast. I should have had lower temperatures! Imagine my surprise when everyone was at least 5 degrees off on the low temperature forecasts on both the 20th and 21st. The scores were all ultimately in the same ball park, so the real separator was Accuweather keeping Cleveland dry for the entire 48 hours, which didn’t seem right to anyone else, but alas, Accuweather blazed their own, victorious trail.
Actuals: May 20th, High 89, Low 72
May 21st, High 86, Low 76

Grade: C-D

Home field advantage

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Back before the weather and my personal calendar got really crazy, we put together a forecast for State College, the home of Accuweather. The way today’s weather looks, we might have called Tuesday the 14th, at least, a little chilly. When you compare it to the forecast put forth by many out lets, it was quite chilly. Even Accuweather was too warm with the forecast on the 14th (which was cooled by clouds and light showers) but perfection on Monday allowed them to claim half of the day’s victory with Clime.
Actuals: May 13th, High 75, Low 43
May 14th, light rain reported, not measured, High 64, Low 54

Grade: A – C

May starts hot

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We forecast for Goldsboro, North Carolina at the beginning of the month, and as soon as the third, we were anticipating a day that reached nearly 90 degrees. It was 89 degrees on the third day of the month, but an upwelling of moisture on the 4th made things stickier, cloudier and a little bit cooler. There had been a forecast for some rain in Goldsboro, and while it has been stormy in the last couple of days in North Carolina, on the 4th, it was not. The Weather Channel had the first top forecast of May,
Actuals: Friday, May 2nd, High 89, Low 64
Saturday, May 3rd, High 84, Low 68

Grade: B-C

There should be May flowers around here somewhere

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Muncie had a rainy end to the month of April. Steadier rain fell on the 29th, the final Monday of the month, but there was still a enough to measure a hundredth of an inch on the 30th. Highs in the 70s gave a taste of spring to the region, and while overnight lows were balmy, they were a hair below expectations. Ultimately, the spot with the coolest low is the winner. That so happens to be Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Monday April 29th – .29″ of rain, High 73, Low 61
Tuesday, April 30th – .01″ of rain, High 74, Low 59

Grade: A-C

Summer makes it’s approach

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

When we looked at Chico earlier this month, it didn’t appear that there was much of a trend, but when we bore out the actual verification numbers, it turned out that yes, there was a trend. From the 16th to the 17th it got a bit warmer, both during the day and during the night. It isn’t crazy hot yet, but this little window into April was a sign that it’s coming. WeatherNation ended up getting the top forecast, all by themselves.
Actuals: April 16th, High 75, Low 49
April 17th, High 77, Low 54

Grade: A-C

Not so bad on the coast

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It can be pretty muggy in south Texas, hotter than most of us northerners an even comprehend. A temperature of 83 degrees, though, is pretty palatable, even with some humidity. That’s where it sat in Victoria on the 14th and 15th if this month, an all together comfortable set of days in a part of the world that can be notoriously uncomfortable. It was a little uncomfortable as well for The Weather Channel, who won the day, but by a narrow margin.
Actuals: April 14th, High 83, Low 63
April 15th, High 83, Low 70

Grade: A-C

Florida’s best time of year

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Temperatures in the summer can be overwhelmingly warm in the Sunshine state, and in the winter, it gets a bit chillier than the natives can tolerate. In the spring, however, temperatures will b cool enough for anyone to sleep, and may not get to 80. That was what we saw in Palm Coast on the 5th and 6th of the month, Another nice thing about the time of year is that it is easier to leave rain out of the forecast because you can identify larger scale weather patterns. Comfortable temperatures and no rain? They should tell people about this place, they might want to vacation here. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel caught up to Weatherbug after a perfect day on the 5th, to end up with a three way victory.
Actuals – April 5th, High 75, Low 46
April 6th, High 66, Low 51

Grade: B