Lingering Lake Michigan Moisture

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A cold front moved through the Great Lakes as the month of September ended. It wasn’t very rainy, but behind it, some of that lake moisture was suspended over Lower Michigan. Temperatures on the final day of September didn’t echo the overwhelmingly warm month for a lot of the country in Lansing, as fog and low clouds from the Lakes kept temperatures in the low 70s, about 5 degrees cooler than most anticipated. Some did anticipate it, though, like Accuweather, who put together a very good forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .04 inches of rain High 78, Low 62
Monday – High 71, Low 56

Grade: A-C

Forecasts CAN be too warm

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It’s important to remember as we finally seem to be departing the summer, that sometimes, temperatures end up colder than we expect. That was the case in Glens Falls towards the end of September. Temperatures were a few degrees colder than every outlet’s high temperature forecast on the 24th and 25th, respectively, and the low was on the cold end of the low temperature forecasts as well. This is something to remember as we approach fall. It’s not summer all the time. The Weather Channel had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: September 24th, High 68, Low 43
September 25th, .42″ of rain, High 58, Low 51

Grade: B-C

Competitors and also rans

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Two things were true about the weather in Visalia early this week. First, it was miserably hot, hitting 106 on Monday and tempering a bit to something more livable, hitting 99 on Tuesday. Second, because of the clear skies and somewhat dry air, temperatures cooled off to a much more reasonable level overnight. Everyone knew it would be hot, but only three outlets, The Weather Channel, Accuweather and Victoria-Weather (in that order) accounted for it, while the other 4 were out in left field, also rans, as it were. I want to be clear, though, with temperatures like this, nobody should be doing any running.
Actuals: Monday, High 106, Low 66
Tuesday, High 99, Low 64

Grade A-C

Eugene falls on the warm side

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Eugene sits in the higher terrain of western Oregon, and on either side of the Cascades, it can be cool and damp along the coast, and hot and dry inland from the Cascades, and that’s how it looked to go over the last couple of days. So what did Eugene end up representing? Inland Oregon, it seems, as high temperatures exceeded any forecast, hitting 90 on Sunday an the upper 80s on Monday. On the plus side, because it was so dry, low temperatures were cool and comfortable. Temperatures sunk a lot of forecasts, and Accuweather came out on top with the warmest forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 90, Low 57
Monday – High 87, Low 49

Grade: C-F

A healthy drink on a ruined weekend afternoon

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Unlike yesterday’s verification in Evansville, Glens Falls got exactly what they expected – a healthy smack in the chin from a rainy system that ultimately changed up the air mass in eastern New York. A cold front arrived in town around mid-afternoon on Saturday (thanks for that, Mother Nature) and immediately sank temperatures, before they could get too sweltering. Ultimately, it was a pretty good soaker as well, with over 3/4ths of an inch falling. Victoria-Weather was the top dog in the Empire State.
Actuals: Friday, High 80, Low 50
Saturday, .79″ of rain, High 71, Low 54

Grade: B – C

Small relief

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A short wave rippled through the northern tier, bringing cooler air to a lot of the country late last week. We felt it here in the Upper Midwest, it eventually arrived as far as New England, but it sure didn’t show up during our verification for Evansville. The boundary was supposed to arrive in Evansville on Friday evening, bringing some cooling temperatures and brisk winds. The rain never came, and the temperatures stayed in the 90s instead. Victoria-Weather played down the rain chances, but the Weather Service and Clime had strong temperature forecasts, and anticipated a slow arrival to the cold front.
Actuals: Thursday, High 92, Low 65
Friday – High 90, Low 67

Grade: A-C

High pressure weather, low pressure forecast

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St. Louis was under a dominating ridge of high pressure during our forecast period. Return flow on the west side of the ridge drove temperatures up on Thursday, and nearly everyone handled things exquisitely. Victoria-Weather had a perfect forecast for Wednesday, but things ended up cooler in the morning on Thursday, which opened up the forecast for The Weather Channel to narrowly win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 81, Low 58
Thursday – High 87, Low 55

Grade: A – C

Are we done yet?

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One thing about being in a temperate climate is that we tend to run out of patience for extreme temperatures as the season grows later. Most of the country, save for Hawaii, sees a warm season and a cold season, so even if you associate, say, Beaumont, with hot temperatures, residents are going to wear on those warm temperatures in the summer. On the 9th and 10th of the month, those temperatures were in the mid to upper 90s, and while The Weather Channel nearly aced the forecast, local residents would have much rather shaved a few degrees off the temperature, especially those 76 degree overnight lows.
Actuals August 9th, High 97, Low 76
August 10th, High 96, Low 76

Grade: A-B

Upstream from Debby

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A cool front was sliding into Alabama as the month started, just as we were waiting for Debby to make her way to the Florida Peninsula. Montgomery, typically awash in pop up showers and storms, was able to evade that activity on Saturday, even as a cool front slid through town. “Cool”. It was still in the 90s after it’s passage. There was a lingering splash of rain on Friday morning, which some people successfully called out, but ultimately, the top forecast came to a good temperature prognostication. Because of that, there was a three way tie on top, between The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Friday – .02 inches of rain, High 95, Low 77
Saturday – High 96, Low 76

Grade: B-C