Nothing but clouds

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A feature that got organized along the Gulf Coast last weekend threatened to bring some showers and storms as far north as Joplin, but alas, that was not the case. Well, sure, there were a few sprinkles on the 15th, even a rumble of thunder, but it wasn’t a washout, and that rain didn’t return on Saturday. There were plenty of clouds, though, and a little surge of cooler air, keeping temperatures below forecasts on every verifying period except the Friday low, in which the clouds kept things a bit warmer overnight. There was a tie at the top, between The Weather Channel and Accuweather.
Actuals: Friday, .05 inches of rain, High 69, Low 50
Saturday – High 60, Low 45

Grade: B-D

Record breaking heat in San Francisco

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An advancing system in the Pacific Northwest was poised to bring some changing wind conditions in northern California earlier this month, and along with those changing vectors, the temperature in San Francisco was poised to bounce around. It bounced much higher than expected on Thursday the 7th, hitting a record high of nearly 90. things were more reasonable on Friday, reaching the upper 60s and feeling a bit more San Franciscan. The Weather Service and Weathernation altered their forecasts a bit, but still managed to come together for a victory.
Actuals: April 7th, High 89, low 56
April 8th, High 69, Low 52

Grade: B-D

The calm before the storm

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One might think the title is referencing the lack of significant stormy weather in the Jacksonville area, even as the southern US was undergoing another severe weather outbreak, but it is not. Instead, the title references the lack of range in the temperatures, even with an airmass shift coming the way of Jacksonville. The forecasters with the quieter (and warmer overnight) temperatures were the ones that excelled on this day. The Top forecast went to Weatherbug, their first win of the year, after a strong 2021.
Actuals: Tuesday: High 80, Low 60
Wednesday: High 82, Low 66

Grade: B-C

Windswept in the Colorado Foothills

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I spoke too soon after confidently revealing the results of the verification in New Haven. The weather in Colorado Springs as the first third of the month concluded was poised to go downhill, but like the Rockies to the west, the slope was steep. Steeper than expected, frankly, and it resulted in some of the worst forecasts I’ve seen in a while. Snow was able to clear the Palmer Divide relatively early on Wednesday the 9th, and it was accompanied by cold air, without any of the bump that downsloping usually allows. it was one of the worst forecasts I’ve seen in a while, frankly, as temperature got significantly colder faster than anyone really expected. Then, there is Forecast.io who was a disaster, not even having snow in the forecast at all. Yikes all the way around. The Weather Service was merely bad, and not terrible, and secured this victory. They shouldn’t feel good about it, though.
Actuals: March 9th, snow, High 28, Low 3
March 10th, snow reported, not measured, High 12, low 0

Grade: C-F

Back on track

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I have returned from vacation, and if our forecast in New Haven is any estimation, I didn’t really need one. The beginning of March was a warm one in New England, and that usually means rain. That was indeed the case in New Haven, where our forecast swooped in at the end of a warm spell which was ultimately marked by some rain. The cool down was deftly anticipated by Victoria-Weather, and that gained a victory for us.
Actuals: March 7th, .02 inches of rain, High 61, Low 48
March 8th, High 49, Low 32

Grade: B-C

On track

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When we put together the forecast for Chicago at the end of February, there was a strong southwest to northeast jet, that really hasn’t changed a whole lot, even now as we enter the middle of March. One change, I suppose, is that the jet has lifted a bit to the north, so Chicago is now warmer, but back in February, the Windy City would get snow on the north side of a feature, followed by cold air. That’s the pattern we followed leading into the last weekend of the month. The cool down rate was a bit challenging, and gave way to some spotty forecast consistency, but ultimately, the Weather Service (who allowed a Midway Airport specific forecast, unlike nearly all other comers) grabbed a victory.
Actuals: Friday 2/25 – .04 inches of liquid in light snow, High 31, Low 20
Saturday 2/26 – High 33, Low 16

Grade: B-C

Snow skipper

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If you like winter weather, the Great Lakes and New England are great places to be. Snow comes in heavy in that part of the world, and is usually the wet, dense stuff, perfect for snowmen and snowballs, and not the wispy inch or two you get in the Plains that aren’t really good for anything. What is worse than that, though, is when it rains. That’s all they got in Lima on the 11th, in the distant past when we issued our forecast for the northwestern Ohioan town. What a tease! Victoria-Weather saw it coming, though, and collected the top forecast in town, for our first win in 2022.
Actuals: February 10th, High 37, Low 28
February 11th – .12″ of rain, High 43, Low 28

Grade: A-C

Glazed Hickory

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The beginning of this month has brought a relentless cavalcade of systems moving along the east coast, keeping it snowy in New England and the Mid Atlantic and cold in the middle of the country. Where the two meet and merge with the south, AKA the southern Appalachians, it has been icy at times. On Monday in Hickory, there was .16″ of freezing rain, which is enough to cause a fair share of issues for locals. The temperatures climbed into the 50s on Tuesday though, which helped to clear things up. We put together a forecast last Sunday, and it was won decisively by Accuweather.
Actuals: Monday – .16″ of rain, High 39, Low 29
Tuesday – High 54, Low 30

Grade: A-C

Brisk for west Texas

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The Texas Panhandle was a chilly place to be at the end of January and beginning of February. Well, it was cold in Amarillo relative to most of the forecasts available, but Tuesday was actually quite chilly. Monday was in the mid-60s, but was still a few degrees shy of the forecast. Accuweather was on the low end of the forecast range, and had a very good total, winning the day.
Monday – High 66, Low 29
Tuesday – High 46, Low 32

Grade A-C

NorCal at it’s best (and worst)

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I spent a lovely weekend in northern California in the fall of 2019, attending a wedding for one of my best friends. The day before, my wife and I went for a hike in the hills outside of Petaluma, and it was absolutely sweltering. The night of the wedding, in Sonoma, a wind came up during the outdoor reception, and I’m not sure I’ve ever been so cold. Same vibes for Santa Rosa (though a little reversed) during our forecast period. On the 18th, temperatures were several degrees below the forecast totals across the board. On the 19th, however, the reverse was true, and the readings were a bit warmer than any forecast. The result of this temperature and forecast whiplash was a three way draw between Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel and Accuweather.
Actuals: January 18th, High 54, Low 34
January 19th, High 64, Low 40

Grade: C-D