As we learned from our last update, today is the only day to be concerned with rain in the Tampa area. To the north off the coast from Cedar Key, the NWS has issued a Marine Warning that looks strange.

Polygons usually expand through the expected storm motion to account for the potential variability of the track. Instead, this one narrows around the storm motion. That’s just a backwards polygon is what that is.

As the Tampa Bay weather office shared recently, this week looks pretty good, save for a little bit of storminess tomorrow. Of course, this is the Gulf Coast side, so the spring breakers in question are probably visiting grandparents.

At this point, most of the precipitation in southern Minnesota is falling as rain, and even then, there is a dry slot right over the Twin Cities metro area that isn’t being picked up well by models. Right now, the NAM model has among the better solutions, but the best bet is looking at the short range models. One thing all of them are consistent on is a reformed area of low pressure and another blast of nasty, and this time windy, conditions overnight.

A band of very heavy snow is presently just north of the Iowa border in Minnesota. At Austin, they are reporting some thunder along with the snow, indicating the rapid rate that the precipitation is falling, and the energy in the system. The change to rain keeps moving up in the forecast though, and will be chasing this heavy band, and we still await confirmation on how much snow we will see

How many times have I mentioned that warm weather keeps continuing in the middle of the country, and we are looking more and more like we are getting out of winter without much, if any more snow? Naturally, that has invited this 72 hour accumulation forecast, which will only fill in in the Upper Midwest as the forecast period moves toward the weekend.

It’s a very quiet evening out there, weather fans. There is an area of low pressure driving into the Pacific Northwest, but when ISN’T there. This should be monitored, though, as we are going to be looking at some severe weather arising out of this wave on Thursday. Be patient, weather fans.

And a little bit of cloudiness on the Gulf Coast.

It should be noted that because of the clear skies and cold air filtering in behind the area of low pressure in the northeast, there are actually freeze warnings out in Alabama tonight

A fairly inauspicious feature moving through the Great Lakes yesterday has tapped into some cold air as it arrives in the mid Atlantic. There is mixed precipitation east of the Great Lakes, and some snow falling in the terrain of the Poconos.

A tightly wound area of low pressure, remnant from the terrible flooding in the Southwest, is plowing through the Great Lakes. It’s February 8th, and the feature is intense enough that it is producing storm reports, including 50mph wind and 1 inch hail.

I should note that these are simply the most recent observations, with the wind coming from the system in the area, but there was even a tornado observed south of Madison this afternoon. It was the first February tornado in Wisconsin in recorded history.