We are arriving in one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, as millions of Americans will travel over the river and through the woods to Grandmother’s house. The great news is that most of the winter weather that is forthcoming is steering clear of the major airports. A shortwave will be pulling out of the southern Plains and headed for the mid-Atlantic by Tuesday afternoon but this will bring primarily rain and maybe a low cloud deck, both problems for flight operations.

But rain and clouds aren’t a disaster, as the clouds and visibility won’t be as low as they would be with a snowstorm. Any weather delays are likely just going to be secondary to the volume and other issues that arrive at airports. It will be slow in some important areas because of the rain, but not a disaster by any stretch of the imagination. I’m talking about New York, Philadelphia and Washington, reaching parts of coastal New England on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving, it will be clear and crisp up and down the Eastern Seaboard.

Fortunately, the threat for snow isn’t going to be a problem for most of the country, especially air travelers. Unless, of course, you are going to northern Minnesota. The occluded portion of the feature that will be responsible for the rain out east is also responsible for winter weather alerts from Montana to the UP of Michigan. The heaviest stripe of snow will be in Northern Minnesota, and should be wrapped up by midday on Wednesdsay.

This isn’t a ton of snow, and the roads that it impacts aren’t well travelled. There won’t be volume issues in Bismarck or Duluth or Rhinelander, some airports that will see some of this snow. Lake effect snow will become a problem on Thanksgiving, so Cleveland and Buffalo are going to be tricky for day-of traveling, and perhaps returning home on Friday as well.

We are through the month of October, and admittedly halfway through the month of November. Most of the weather headlines were from outside of the country, but that didn’t mean there wasn’t weather domestically as well. The National Weather Service ended up winning the month, and this somewhat busy month led to a very close contest. This is good news for us all! Good forecasts for everyone!

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	9.41
National Weather Service	9.41
Accuweather	6.83
Victoria-Weather	5.16
Clime	4.75
WeatherNation	3.41
Weatherbug	3

2:50PM: See how the clouds are kind of ribbed throughout New England? Well, that means it is quite windy across the region, at the level at which the clouds lie. I can tell you it is fairly breezy at the surface, as well.

9:10PM: The wind that was evident in the image above is also responsible for bringing in quite a bit of chilly air. There are actually frost advisories tonight as far south as North Carolina.

You may not remember this, because of the way the month ended, but it was a pretty cool month, running afoul of global trends for, I don’t know, a century, now? Standing in those headwinds, our forecasters needed to be particularly sure of what they were putting out there. Accuweather and Clime won co-shares of September’s title.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	9.08
National Weather Service	6.91
Accuweather	6.5
Clime	4.75
Victoria-Weather	3.83
Weatherbug	3
WeatherNation	2.91

Autumn is working its way into town tomorrow, according to astronomers (it’s been here since the 1st, according to meteorologists) and this time of year I’m either talking mostly about the tropics or about transitional systems bringing big storms or big changes to the Plains. This year, I’ve not had the need for either. For one thing, it’s been colder than normal to begin the month, so a fall like transition isn’t as notable. For another, the Atlantic is serving all of the tropical features (for now) to the north Atlantic.

With all of the various debates over the state of the climate and sea surface temperatures, the fact that the storms are churning in the Atlantic instead of the Caribbean shouldn’t quiet any of them. Another explanation is that storms are forming further east because of the warmth, and able to veer north early on in the life cycle because of the environment for storms to do so, caused by a warmer climate/sea surface.

Don’t misunderstand this as a good thing. The Caribbean and Gulf are still plenty warm, and conducive spots most of the late summer for tropical storms. It hasn’t happened yet because of prevailing flows and upper level factors. Really, the only debate we are avoiding with the dynamics of this tropical season is the one that forces on air meteorologists to decide on the namesake of the Gulf.

We are in the second half of the tropical season, and with only one storm in the month of September, things have gone our way, whatever the cause is. After many bad seasons in a row in the tropics, we were owed an easy one.

Even as hurricanes continue to avoid the US Mainland (the next watch area, even if it develops, is forecast to curl into the Sargasso Sea), storms have emerged at a pace not far off the pace of a typical season, or what hurricane forecasters had suggested at the outset of this season. The storms are, of course, a threat to maritime activity, but they also have an impact on the coast, even when storms aren’t making their landfalls. Sur

Hurricane Erin spun off the coast between Bermuda and the Carolinas, causing dangerous rip currents and some high waves and erosion on the Outer Banks. The storm induced swimming bans up through the mid-Atlantic, and forced dozens of rescues of swimmers.

Last week, hurricane Kiko travelled north of the Hawaiian Islands. This is not an unusual track for hurricanes to take, and it has helped the north shore of Oahu become known for its surfing environment. Kiko, even though it was weakening and tracking away from the Islands churned up a gnarly surf. The whole thing was discussed by Surfer.com, who also included this video.

They are called cold snaps, because they are over in a snap, just like heat waves are called that because they rise and fall. It’s been a while since we’ve enjoyed an extended period below normal, especially outside of winter, but naturally, that won’t be the long term trend.

A pool of cold air has dived south through the Plains and spread to the East Coast. The Mississippi Valley is seeing their coolest temperatures since March or April (and about a month too early), and the weekend will prove to be on the chilly side on the coast. The pattern will finally start to break, with a better formed trough shifting off shore, allowing warmer air in.

But still, that shift isn’t coming until Tuesday, and that is only in the Plains. Warmer air will start to return, but the surface ridge will wrap from New England the Gulf Coast, keeping a lot of the country dry, both in terms of rain, and lack of humidity. On the Coast, the below normal temperatures are going to last perhaps all week next week.

With all that said, we will be into mid-September, and yet, the monthly forecast still looks like this:

Even with that much time below normal, parts of the eastern 2/3rds of the US are above normal, and most of the region will be near normal, according to prediction from the CPC. Not only will the cold snap end, we can reasonably expect a course correction through the end of the month.

It’s been a pretty tame North Atlantic season thus far. The most headline grabbing feature thus far was Emily, a strong storm to be sure, with the greatest impact a dangerous surf seen along the Eastern Seaboard. This has been perpetuated by Fernand, currently churning in the western Atlantic. We are to late August, just a couple of weeks from the traditional peak of the season, and that is as wild as it has been.

Last year unleashed a torturous season, with hurricanes Helene and Milton doing damage in the southeastern US after Beryl had slogged through the Texas coast earlier in the season. Perhaps, with those names, you already recognize where I am going with this line of thought. Obviously, Helene – H and Milton – M, would come after where we are at with Fernand – F. Things can still get busy! That’s true, but also not the full point I was preparing to make.

At this point last year, Francine, 2024’s F storm, was still a month out. By this point in the year, 2024 had one fewer storm than we do in 2025. Certainly, there is a lot of season left to go, but also, 2025 hasn’t been abnormally slow, either.

The true assessment of a busy or not busy season will come at the end of the year, after we see where and with what intensity storms arrive on the coast. Since the news cycle hasn’t been overwhelmed by stories of landfalling hurricanes, we haven’t really thought about any tropical weather. That may change, perhaps not. Whatever the case, the Atlantic basin sure hasn’t been quiet this summer.

Yes, we are pretty deep into August, but it’s been a somewhat active summer on the family front, so the gears at Victoria-Weather are moving a bit slowly. It’s been a busy summer, but not in the tropics. and the severe weather has been related, largely, to heavy precipitation this year. Perhaps partly because of the dynamics of the season, and certainly because of their skill in general, The Weather Channel is having a very strong stretch, and this year just keeps getting better for them.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	7
National Weather Service	6.33
Accuweather	5
Clime	3.5
Weatherbug	3
Victoria-Weather	2.83
WeatherNation	2.33

The air in the middle of the country for the last week or so has been, well, juicy. Dew points are in the mid-70s as far north as Fargo, even in the middle of the night. This is very uncomfortable, especially for the Nordic persons in the Upper Midwest, a hearty people known more for their winter resilience. There is a reason for this boost in humidity.

Corn.

Part of the respiration process for plants includes moisture leaving through evaporation. I’m not a biologist, so I won’t labor to explain that part of it to you I will say that the amount of evaporated moisture goes up with the volume of plants. Certain types of plants also produce more moisture.

Broad leafed crops, particularly corn, is an efficient evapotranspirator, and later in the season, when corn is at its heartiest for the season, local moisture climbs. Corn is a cash crop in heartland, and the elevated dew points seem to be most impacted in Iowa and Illinois. As temperatures start to cool ahead of the harvest, the moisture can be so much that it leads to overnight fog until it arms up in the afternoon.

This time of year, though, it ha a destabilizing effect on the atmosphere. When even a weak system moves into such a moisture rich environment, storms erupt with even more rain, and potentially some additional wind and hail, because of the updrafts enhanced by the supersaturated air. Of course, more and heavier rain can only lead to one thing.

More corn.