State College, Pennsylvania

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I hope everyone has been enjoying the Northern Lights where they have been available. Now, we’re going to take a forecast trip to one of the homes of our forecast competitors, Accuweather.

At 853PM, ET, State College was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A shortwave moved through the region last night and through the morning, and scattered showers have now departed the area as the wave attempts to merge with a large feature off shore. This will give State College a bit of dry weather through tomorrow morning.
The next couple of features are coming from the Canadian Prairies, where a weak boundary is sliding through, while a stronger feature in the High Plains is emerging from the south. The cold front will drape north of the Pennsylvania border for most of the day on Monday, which will mean cloudy skies and chances for rain, but the feature rising from the southwest will bring more moisture and instability to the region. It is liable to be rainier with a chance of thunderstorms throughout Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a spot of rain possible, High 74, Low 47
Tuesday – Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms, High 68, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny High 73, Low 50
Tuesday – Generally sunny. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 72, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant and warmer with times of clouds and sun High 75, Low 43
Tuesday – Cloudy and not as warm with a couple of showers High 68. Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 76, Low 42
Tuesday – A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. high 71, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon, High 67, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 43
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with light showers and chance of storms, High 71, Low 55

CLI: Tomorrow – Clear, High 75, Low 44
Tuesday – Rain Showers, High 68, Low 54

I’m the only one with rain potentially for Monday. It feels like rain should fall on Mondays, right? Here is the sattelite, showing the field of clouds, drifting away and clearing the way for new rain.

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Goldsboro, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

My latest update referred back to Boise, and how close to spring it was getting even there. In the Carolinas, I think this would have been a pretty late breaking bit of news. They are aware.

At 255PM, ET, Goldsboro was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 85 degrees. Three was a bullseye of 90 nearby in Raleigh, but it is warm everywhere in the Carolinas. Fortunately, temperatures are not being boosted further by sweltering humidity, with dew points below 60. While things have been active in the center of the country, the east coast is dominated by an upper level ridge.
The latent alto cumulus that just exists in the southeast throughout the summer thanks to oceanic and Gulf moisture seems to be reaching a barrier at the southern end of the Appalachians, and isn’t moving across theSome sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Very warm border from South Carolina. A boundary moving into the region from the west will arrive at the Appalachians on Saturday morning and struggle to get moisture into the Carolina Plains as well, however the persistent flow over the mountains will lead to some lee troughing. This localized circulation will draw some moisture into the area, and late shower activity is possible Saturday in Goldsboro.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 63
Saturday – Late clouds with a chance of showers, High 83, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Very warm High 89, Low 63
Saturday – Cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm High 89. Low 63
Saturday – Cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later High 83, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 62
Saturday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 88, Low 68
Saturday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 87, Low 62
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 80, Low 64

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 63
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 81, Low 64

You can see the scattered clouds through South Carolina that just filter out when you hit the Tar Heel State.

Muncie, Indiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s been a rough stretch for a large swath of the Plains. Will this weather be able to sneak eastward? Well not sneak, more like charge.

At 851ET, Muncie was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with mostly sunny skies. There was a brisk south-southwest wind funneling the warm, moisture rich air northward within the warm sector of a strong system that has caused serious problems for the middle of the country. Fortunately, the associated cold front is occluded and significantly weaker by this point. Further, the boundary is anticipated to pass through Muncie overnight and into tomorrow morning. A perturbation along the boundary, the bit of energy bringing storms to Texas today, will slow the boundary down and some light rain will linger through most of the afternoon.
While there is clear air behind the front, it will take too long to push out of Muncie to really change the pattern in town. Lingering overnight clouds from Monday into Tuesday will keep things mild overnight, and Tuesday will be sunnier than Monday, blunting any temperature downgrade even further. In fact, Tuesday may end up being warmer than Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. High 74, Low 62
Tuesday – Showers in the morning, High 76, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon, High 77, Low 65
Tuesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 74, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 75, Low 65
Tuesday – Partly sunny, nice and warm High 76, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 64
Tuesday – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Then, mostly cloudy with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. high 72, Low 65
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon, High 70, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 74, Low 63
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 72, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 75, Low 64
Tuesday – Drizzle, High 73, Low 59

It’s looking pretty clear in Muncie, and it looks like they are going to dodge the worst effects of this latest severe weather outbreak.

Chico, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to northern California, to visit the first city we ever forecast for on Victoria-Weather.com. A little history being made.

At 2pm, PT, Chico was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. If there were any sites in northern California that were reporting any clouds, they were near the coast, and those clouds were tied to the ocean, rather than any overwhelming atmospheric event.
The jet has shifted north and even an expected trough will move ashore in British Columbia and dive into the Continental US through the Northern Rockies over the next couple of days. A weak upper level boundary will move through associated with the trough on Monday, which will introduce some clouds that may linger through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Fair, High 77, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 77, 50

TWC: Partly cloudy. High 78, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 79, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and comfortable High 77, Low 46
Wednesday – Nice with times of clouds and sun High 77, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny,  High 78, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 50
Wednesday – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 79, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 49
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 46
Wednesday – Sunny, High 78, Low 50

Victoria, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s always a special day when we forecast for Victoria, because I get to remind everyone that the site is named this because I am from the version in Minnesota.

At 751PM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with fair skies and a brisk onshore wind, gusting over 30mph. An upper level ridge is settling into place over the region, which will help temper the wind and allow temperatures to climb through the region.
While there won’t be a significant change to the weather on Monday, there will be a change nevertheless. Low pressure developing in the Colorado Rockies will emerge into the Plains on Monday afternoon, drawing air towards it, including moisture rich air off the Gulf coming through Victoria, making the day a bit cloudier and a bit stickier.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 66
Monday – Cloudier and more humid, High 82, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 83, Low 65
Monday – Cloudy with gusty winds developing during the afternoon. High 82, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with times of clouds and sun High 83, Low 65
Monday – Increasingly windy; cloudy in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon High 79, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 65
Monday – Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly cloudy, High 82, Low 65
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 66
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 68

CLI – Partly cloudy High 82, Low 64
Monday – Light rain showers High 82, Low 68

Clime is the only outlet calling for rain on Monday. I don’t think the moisture will be that rich. Take a look at the clear overhead radar in the area right now.

v

Palm Coast, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Palm Coast is a fairly new addition to the census, having first been developed only starting in 1969, and incorporating 30 years later. Palm Coast is only 25, and in the last 25 years has grown by over 200%. It also has had a history of local wildfires. Will that be a factor with this forecast?

At 1035 PM, ET, Palm Coast was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees and clear skies. In fact, Florida found itself entirely under clear skies, which was surely helping with the temperatures dipping into the 50s in April. Low pressure was bringing a late season snow storm to interior New England, and its attendant cold front had already swept through the Sunshine State and was splitting the Bahamas this evening.
The clear air will continue into the morning, before a ridge builds into the region. Expect a little bit of cloud cover to return in the afternoons of both Friday and Saturday, thanks to some light sea breezes. Flow aloft will be negligible over Florida, so surface features will have a greater role in the daily weather, but the region hasn’t hit the rainy season yet, and rain is not expected even if cumulus fields form. A weak upper level ridge in the southeast will provide another element of stability for the area.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 49
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 75, Low 50
Saturday – Sunshine. High 69, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with plenty of sun High 75, Low 51
Saturday – Partly sunny High 68, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny High 74, Low 50
Saturday – Sunny High 70, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 46
Saturday – Sunny, High 68, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny, High 67, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73. Low 50
Saturday – Partly cloudy High 67, Low 50

A brisk north wind as the ridge settles in is going to be the driving factor in those temperatures coming down. Starting cool because of the crystal clear skies, however.

Columbus, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Back in the early days of this site, it seemed like we kept revisiting two cities in particular: Reno, Nevada and Columbus, Ohio. So I should do pretty well here!

At 1051PM, ET, Columbus was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 32 degrees. There is a brisk north wind rippling through central Ohio tonight, further exasperating a fire threat for parts of the region that missed out on the rain last week. The wind shouldn’t last too much longer, as surface high pressure is building into the Great Lakes for tomorrow. It will be cool with some, but nearly as much, wind.
A clipper moving into the High Plains tonight will reach the Great Lakes in two days time. Ahead of that, expect a bump in temperatures on Friday with the warm front arriving in the area early in the day. Low pressure emerging in the Gulf will also be moving towards the mid-Atlantic Friday, and will attempt to marry the Clipper in the Great Lakes. This will manifest as some stratiform overcast with a bit of light rain into the evening hours. Colder air will wait for the weekend, with the heaviest precipitation also ducking Columbus both north and South.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 42, Low 24
Friday – Warmer, with clouds and some light rain late, High 61, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 43, Low 23
Friday – Partly cloudy early followed by increasing clouds with showers developing later in the day. High 61, Low 28

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and chilly High 42, Low 22
Friday – Cloudy and warmer; a couple of afternoon showers High 64, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 43, Low 23
Friday – A slight chance of rain after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 61, Low 28

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 29
Friday – Partly cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. High 60, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 25
Friday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 61, Low 28

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 41, Low 22
Friday – Rain Showers, High 61, Low 26

I’d be surprised if Friday was a super rainy day in Columbus, but I wouldn’t make outdoor plans. The satellite tonight sure is clear. A sign of how quickly things change.

Davenport, Iowa

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re continuing a recent trend of forecasting in the western Great Lakes with a trip to the Quad Cities.

At 252PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with a brisk south wind and clear skies, There appeared to be a vorticity maximum near St. Joseph, Missouri, and a whorl of clouds over the center of the United States was bringing a few of the clouds north to eastern Iowa, but the the real threat for deteriorating conditions is further to the southwest, where low pressure is going to continue developing over the next couple of days.
By tomorrow evening, areas near an emerging warm front will start to feature show rain and thunderstorms across southeastern Iowa. The center of low pressure will start to shift northeastward, and what had been convective in nature at the beginning of the day will become cooler and more stratiform rain showers, ultimately giving way to cool cloudy skies in the evening.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, late thunder possible, High 67, Low 47
Thursday – Rain with embedded thunderstorms. Ending late, then cooler, High 58, Low 43(Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 72, Low 45
Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms. High 60, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and warm with a shower in the area High 67, Low 47
Thursday – A thick cloud cover, breezy and mild with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; thunderstorms could bring damaging winds, flash flooding and hail High 63, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, (late rain) High 70, Low 48
Thursday – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. High 63, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 51
Thursday – Rain with thunderstorms, High 55, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 58, Low 51

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Drizzle, High 63, Low 45

This forecast was interrupted quite a few times while I tried to put it together. That vort max I mentioned at the beginning actually produced a couple severe storms east of Kansas City. Still not too bad in Davenport tonight, but it will deteriorate through the week. We’ll see at what pace.

Fond du Lac, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s been delightful here in Minnesota today, and I can’t imagine it’s been much different over in the Fox Valley.

At 1053PM, CT, Fond du Lac was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures are going to continue cooling off this evening thanks to the clear skies and dew points down in the 30s. A thermal ridge is parked over the middle of the country, so the cool down will be quickly forgotten after sunrise tomorrow.
A very week wave is going to ripple through the region tomorrow. It will take temperatures away from the record highs seen today, and provide a few clouds, but expect a dry day in Fond du Lac. A strong trough is bringing more mountain snow to the northern Rockies will continue to progress and develop rapidly into a strong area of low pressure in the southern High Plains. A warm front will become evident in the mid-Mississippi Valley, but it will not be an issue in Fond du Lac on Wednesday. Moisture coming into the region will lead to some additional clouds for Fond du Lac, but the rain will wait until Thursday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy and cooler, High 60, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 69, Low 43
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies High 62, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warm; sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon High 68, Low 45
Wednesday – Sun through high clouds and remaining warm High 62, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly sunny,  High 60, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the evening then clearing, High 65, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 46
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 40

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 37

It’s going to be busy aloft, but not much is actually going to go on in the city of Fond du Lac. Not until Thursday, anyway.

Peoria, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

This part of the country, this time of year, you could really get anything out of a forecast. That is pretty exciting, and also could lead to some very peculiar forecasts.

At 1054PM, CT, Peoria was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with overcast skies. A brisk northwest wind was filling the wake of some steady rain with clear and chilly air. After a soggy day in central Illinois, the last remaining bits of rain had moved nearly entirely into Indiana as a trough is swinging into the area at the upper levels, riding north of a strong jet propelling heavier storms in the southeastern US.
At the surface, a pair of low pressure centers will gently orbit around each other, slowing their poleward advance. Behind this agglomeration, high pressure is going to emerge in the Plains, and drift eastward, bringing a dry weekend to Peoria. The ridge will also lay over the top of a thermal ridge, which means temperatures, though chilly tonight, will not remain so.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 33
Sunday – Sunny, High 53, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 45, Low 34
Sunday – A mainly sunny sky. High 49, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness; breezy in the afternoon; clocks spring ahead 1 hour at night High 47, Low 36
Sunday – Plenty of sunshine High 51, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 3pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 45, Low 36
Sunday – Sunny, High 49, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 45, Low 39
Sunday – Sunny, High 46, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 45, Low 36
Sunday – Sunny, High 48, Low 27

CLI:: Tomorrow – Clear, High 46, Low 34
Sunday – Sunny, High 50, Low 28

I am not sure about the chaser rain forecast that some outlets have tomorrow. I think it will be fine. I don’t often post such a broad radar, but it really gives the scope of the inclement conditions out there this evening, affecting a lot of people.