Rocky Mount, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We keep tearing through forecasts in election swing states, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and now North Carolina. It’s not intentional, but it’s certainly quite the coincidence.

At 553PM, ET, Rocky Mount was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with fair skies. High pressure over the eastern seaboard was finally starting to be shoved off shore by a deep trough in the plains. Flow at the southwestern end of the ridge is bringing onshore flow, including a few clouds and light showers over South Carolina and Georgia. Overnight tonight, the flow will moderate, and Rocky Mount will stay dry overnight.
The NHC is monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael, which is still south of Jamaica, but will move into the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period. It isn’t going to be a significant landfalling event for the United States, however the moisture from the storm will be intercepted by the strong boundary moving through the Plains, blunting it’s progress and keeping the Carolinas dry through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Wednesday – Increasing clouds, High 78, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Very warm. High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Cloudy. Very warm. High 81, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, very warm with sunshine and a few clouds; dry weather to get out and vote High 80, Low 52
Wednesday – Very warm with periods of clouds and sunshine; a shower in places in the afternoon High 82, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 79, Low 50
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Patchy dense fog in the morning with visibility one quarter mile or less at times, High 80, Low 54
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 79, Low 61

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 57

Of our various forecasts of late, this was surely the easiest. Happy voting, and a happy end to election season!

Phoenix, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s time for our second forecast of the day, and as luck would have it, things project to be quite different in the second forecast compared to the first.

At 451PM, MT, Phoenix was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees. Scattered showers were flowing through much of the Southwest, but right now, Phoenix was only reporting showers in the area, but not at the airport. At the upper levels, the base of a deep, autumnal trough as digging into the Four Corners, and cycling moisture through the region, leading to the showers in Phoenix, a band of thunderstorms south of the city near Casa Grande, and even some snow at elevation along the New Mexico border.
Flow through the jet will weaken over the next 12 hours, as moisture also shifts to the northeast into the Plains. Still, with the upper level trough still in place, don’t expect a dramatic warm up, or even significant stretches of sunshine. Wind will pick up again on Tuesday evening, though expect conditions to remain mostly dry.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 71, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 73, Low 51
Tuesday – Generally sunny.  High 74, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Cool with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and cool; dry weather to get out and vote High 73, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 52
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 49

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 52
Tuesday – Sunny, High 74, Low 50

OK, so that doesn’t sound so bad for election day, but it sure sounds like a chilly way to spend a couple days for Arizonans. An active radar pattern appears in Arizona.

Racine, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Regardless of your political affiliation, Tuesday is election day, and Wisconsin is one of the important swing states. Our forecast for Racine isn’t just a big forecast, but it is an historic one as well. Not to putt too fine a point on it.

At 1253PM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with brisk wind and rain. The showers were a bit more scattered along the shores of Lake Michigan, but most of Wisconsin was seeing rain at this time, and every resident of Wisconsin will see at least a drop of rain today. Racine, and really all of Wisconsin, finds itself at the northwestern point of a slow moving and broad trough, which has initiated the stratiform rain across America’s Dairy Land.
The jet streak running from the Red River Valley northeast to the western Great Lakes is not going to advance eastward, but will get steady recycling energy along the current. This will be reflected at the surface through bursts of energy bringing training rain and storms north through Wisconsin, particularly on The best chance for heavy rain, along with some isolated thunderstorms will be overnight Monday into Tuesday. Expect things to start cooling down late in the day, though snowfall isn’t particularly likely.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with heavy rain coming late, High 70. Low 59
Tuesday – Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, clearing and cooling late. 66, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain early…then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon. High 68, Low 58
Tuesday – Rain showers, with winds diminishing later in the day. High 67, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, windy and warmer with occasional rain and a thunderstorm High 66, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers; windy and mild; prepare for wet weather if you are headed out to vote High 65, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms between 3pm and 4pm, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High 67, Low 57
Tuesday – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm High 68, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning and then a chance of light rain in the late morning and early afternoon. Light rain likely and slight chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon, High 66, Low 56
Tuesday – Light rain and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, and light rain in the afternoon. High 66, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with rain and a chance of thunderstorms, High 65, Low 57
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with light rain and isolated thunderstorms, High 65, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 68, Low 56
Tuesday – Rain Showers, High 68, Low 60

It’s going to be interesting to see how quickly it cools off on Tuesday, because not everyone had hourly forecasts through the day. For tonight, though, look at all the rain in Wisconsin.

Athens, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed to north Georgia, and the home town of the state’s biggest University. Athens was at the periphery of Hurricane Helene’s deadliest swath, so even more so, I am hopeful for a quiet forecast.

At 1251AM, ET, Athens was reporting overcast conditions with a temperature of 66 degrees. A cold front was sliding through the region, and dropping temperatures between Atlanta and Chattanooga were leading to a band of fog in the region, and overcast through the region. The boundary is becoming cut off from any synoptic scale forcing, but will continue as a surface trough, expected to pivot back to the north through the coming days.
High pressure is returning to the eastern third of the country, but the weak trough is still showing up in forecast surface analysis. The trough will curiously move to the north on the back side of this anticyclonic flow, lifting away from Athens. The lingering low level moisture will not be compelled out of the region, however, and without adequate sunlight, Sunday looks to be a cooler day than Saturday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing and warm. High 80, Low 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny, warm, High 72, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early, then partly to mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 49
Sunday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. A few sprinkles possible High 70, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 80, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 72, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 79, Low 59
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 71, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning. Partly sunny. High 80, Low 65
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 79, Low 58
Sunday – Rain showers, High 70, Low 58

I think the outlets forecasting rain are using some computer generated interpretation of the lower level moisture, calling it rain when it will instead by fog. Satellite shows just a bit of scattered clouds in the region, which are masking the fog further north.

Portland, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed out west for the forecast. British Columbia was on the receiving end of the “atmospheric river” this week. How does that translate a little further south, to Portland?

At 1104AM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with overcast skies. There were lingering low clouds along the Cascades, but clearing at low levels with some insolation. The jet stream was visible on satellite, given some mid layered clouds over Oregon. An upper level trough is off kilter, directed east to west off shore from Oregon. As it comes to alignment with a more zonal flow pattern, cold air will move into western Oregon, and there are freeze warnings in parts of the region.
As the trough pivots on land, it is expected to excrete some of it’s moisture over the center of the state, which may include a bit of rain in Portland on Wednesday evening, though most of the activity will be further south, and further inland. Behind this boundary, moist onshore flow will continue from the Pacific, which will lead to a cloudy and fairly dreary Thursday morning, with some breaks in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a chance of rain in the evening, High 57, Low 43
Thursday – Cloudy early, clearing late. High 59, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies, High 58, Low 41
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 60, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 58, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 57, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 54, Low 43
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 54, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 54, Low 42

CLI: Tomorrow – Light Rain showers, High 59, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 43

Not everyone is on board with rain, which makes sense. I think the threat is low, but given the lead time is still over 24 hours, I’m not ready to pull it out of the forecast yet. You can certainly follow the course of the jet stream on the satellite imagery.

Binghamton, New York

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Binghamton is home to one of the smallest WFO’s in the country in south central New York. One would therefor assume that the NWS, without as much ground to cover, to be able to nail this forecast. The challenge has been cast, National Weather Service.

At 107PM, ET, Binghamton was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a smattering of herringbone patterned rain showers falling across central New York and south through the Pennsylvania. This is on the back side of an area of low pressure moving through New England into the Maritimes, and riding the back of some seasonably chilly air. The inverted trough creating the precipitation, really the first of the season, will linger until it is smothered out by a broad ridge of high pressure. This will take until Wednesday morning.
The upper level trough that is aiding the persistence of this instability is going to sink into the Gulf Stream and become cut off, developing an independent feature offshore. This will cut off the wrap around moisture in Binghamton, and set the stage for high pressure, which will move into the mid-Atlantic for the remainder of Wednesday, lasting through Thursday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance for drizzle early, then clearing, High 45, Low 36
Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, with a shower of rain or wet snow, High 49, Low 37
Thursday – Sun and few passing clouds, High 56, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of morning showers; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly High 44, Low 35
Thursday – Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer High 54, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, High 48, Low 36
Thursday – Areas of frost before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 56, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a chance of rain and snow in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 48, Low 37
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Widespread Frost, High 52, Low 34

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 48, Low 36
Thursday – Partly cloudy with areas of frost, High 55, Low 34

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 44, Low 34
Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 33

Many outlets say the first snow flakes of the year may end up in Binghamton! This could be an interesting verification!

Springfield, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are countless Springfields across the country, but not many of them show up in the roster of potential forecast sites. Let’s make the Illinois version work for us.

At 1252PM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with a brisk west wind and clear skies. A cold front moved through the Great Lakes yesterday, with a stout ridge of high pressure building in behind the boundary.
A thermal ridge, backed by an upper level jet ridge will only reinforce the area of high pressure across the center of the country. Along with clear skies, expect some more unseasonable warmth in the Land of Lincoln.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 42
Tuesday – Sunny, High 76, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny skies, High 75, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 71, Low 43
Tuesday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 73, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 45

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 41

Pretty nice weather for like, May. A little strange for October. To give you an idea of how slow things are in Illinois, this is actually a satellite loop.

Idaho Falls, Idaho

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So much of the Idaho population center lies in the Snake River Valley, creating a U shape through southern Idaho. Idaho Falls is in the eastern part of the state, and I cannot confirm whether or not there are indeed snakes there.

At 653PM, MT, Idaho Falls was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. It’s been dry in the northern Rockies, and there are red flag warnings out for the region. Conversely, low pressure moving through British Columbia is going to bring enough cold air southward that there are freeze advisories for northern Idaho. This is indicative of the overnight cooldown expected in Idaho Falls tonight.
By Tuesday the next system will be moving into the Gulf of Alaska, and drawing warm air back northward. There may be a few clouds on Monday with the cooler air intruding, but it should clear out and warm right back up on Tuesday, the beginning of an uneven week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, chilly in the morning, High 64, Low 40
Tuesday – Sunny and warmer by afternoon, frost in the morning, High 71. Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon HIgh 66, Low 39
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 73, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler HIgh 66, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly sunny and nice High 72, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, warmer, High 68, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 48

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 39
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 45

I’ve checked. No typos here, this forecast just looks to be all over the map. Satellite would suggest that this shouldn’t be so complicated.

Lansing, Michigan

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On Friday, my mind naturally goes to college football, and I know that the Michigan State Spartans are squaring off against Ohio State tonight. Will travel between the two towns be challenging after the game?

At 1053PM, ET, Lansing was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. The clouds over Lansing, and the smattering of light showers in the area were remnants of Helene, which is continuing to unravel in the upper Ohio Valley. The remnants are getting weaker, but are not really expected to move out of the area through any other synoptic forcing.
While clouds and maybe some rain will be possible through the night, the disturbance left by Helene will continue to contract in its area of influence over the next 48 hours. The threat for rain in Lansing should be through by tomorrow afternoon, after which point it will be partly cloudy, an increasingly warm once again.
Tomorrow – Overcast, breaking out later in the day, Some early light rain. High 75, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast (Early rain) High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 76, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a brief shower or two High 76, Low 62
Monday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 73, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow –  10 percent chance of showers before 8am. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly sunny, High 75, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. 20 percent chance of showers through midday, High 74, Low 65
Monday – Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers, High 74, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 73, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 75, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 58

Differing opinions are seen for the rain, but for our more typically reliable outlets, well, there is more overlap. The rain isn’t showing up as clearly as the overcast from the remnants of Helene.

Continental US – Shortwave Window – IR

Glens Falls, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re going to return to Upstate New York for our forecast today. It’s been a little bit active, and even though we are looking at New York, we would still be advised to take a look at the Tropics.

At 353PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with overcast skies. Low pressure in the Gulf Stream and low pressure moving into the Great Lakes were connected by an undulating boundary running through the Mid-Atlantic. A smattering of rain showers was moving along the northern periphery of the boundary, and was likely to clip Glens Falls as this afternoon continues.
A narrow ridge will build into the region tomorrow as the boundary stretching between the two systems will break down. While Tuesday will be dry, the low will organize in the Great Lakes during that same stretch. Though the system will begin occluding fairly quickly before it arrives, a healthy shot of rain is expected starting on Wednesday morning. Because the feature will be breaking down on Wednesday, expect difficulties in clearing it out. Heavy rain is possible Wednesday morning, with more scattered and lighter rain through the afternoon and evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, morning haze, High 71, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain arrives early, lingering through the day, High 62, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 70, Low 45
Wednesday – Cloudy with showers High 62, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 44
Wednesday – Cloudy with a couple of showers High 63, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 49,
Wednesday – A chance of showers, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, High 64, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 53
Wednesday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain, High 62, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 63, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 52
Wednesday – Light rain showers, High 65, Low 47

Let’s take a look at the local take on the situation, from ABC 10 in Albany.