Evansville, Indiana

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We aren’t going to travel too far from our previous forecast spot – St. Louis – but depending on your route, we are still two, maybe three states away.

At 154PM, CT, Evansville was reporting a temperature of 84 with clear skies. There was a trough extending at the lower levels from the western Gulf of Mexico, pressing into western Tennessee, which had resulted in some clouds streaming through Kentucky, and occasionally over Evansville. This feature was penetrating a strong ridge in the eastern US, so the trough figured to get snuffed out before it can do anything interesting, particularly around Evansville.
The instability in the Gulf, however, is expect to spread into the southeastern US as high pressure begins to recede away from the mid-Atlantic. A weak trough running along the Canadian border will drape a cold front into the Plains that will be approaching the lower Ohio Valley on Friday. The cold front will pass through southern Indiana late in the day, however the instability rising out of the Gulf will prevent much moisture for reaching the Evansville city streets. While there is a small chance for rain, there is a better chance for increasing winds and an initial dose of autumnal air.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 66
Friday – Increasing clouds and wind with a spot of rain, High 85, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 91, Low 63
Friday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 93, Low 64
Friday – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in one or two spots; not as hot High 86, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 65
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 68
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, low 66
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 68

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 92, Low 66
Friday – Thunderstorm, High 89, low 67

Forecasts for Friday are an interesting study in “when do you think the front will arrive?” Later arrival suggests warmer highs on Friday. The satellite for the region shows a band of clouds spiraling all the way north from the Gulf.

St. Louis, Missouri

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Welcome to September. Lets get ourselves off to a good start with a forecast from the middle of the country.

At 751PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. High pressure was blanketing the northeastern part of the US, with the western flank laying over the Mississippi Valley. There was, as a result, a bit of moisture flowing at the mid levels bringing the scattered clouds to St. Louis.
The ridge isn’t going to be easy to move. A short wave is going to ripple at the southern flank of the subtropical jet in Canada. The cold front associated with it will struggle to produce any rain fall in the middle of the country, and will be rubbed out before it reaches the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the boundary, however, some warmth will filter in and give another taste of summer.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny and warmer, High 88, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. High 79, Low 57
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 86, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant; a gorgeous day to be outside High 78, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice High 85, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 81, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 58

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 60
Wednesday – Sunny, High 88, Low 60

I could have gone even warmer on Wednesday, but alas, what is a couple of degrees? Wispy clouds for St. Louis tonight.

Chico, California

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Labor Day weekend is approaching, bringing an end to a summer that has been mercifully short on headlines, even in northern California, which is part of the world that has earned some time off.

At 553AM, PT, nearby Oroville Airport was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees and clear skies. High pressure is embracing the West Coast, even as a short wave trough ripples out of the northern Rockies to the Northern Plains. The flow onshore is leading to some haze at the surface along the coast, but it is too low slung to be an issue as far inland as Chico.
The upper level pattern will continue to become more stable, with a ridge settling into the West Coast. With less flow aloft, there is likely to be less vigorous onshore flow either. Some stagnancy to the pattern may lead to morning haze in Chico, but clear hot days will still return in the day.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 68
Saturday – Sunny, with some morning haze, High 102, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 65
Saturday – Sunny, High 100, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Hot with plenty of sunshine; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 65
Saturday – Hot with plenty of sunshine; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny and hot, High 98, Low 67
Saturday – Sunny and hot, High 98, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 71
Saturday – Sunny, High 100, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, low 69
Saturday – Sunny, High 96, Low 69

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 64
Saturday – Sunny, High 97, Low 64

Sun will be out, so I am inclined to follow the warmer guidance. Here is a look at the musings of the Fox 40 team in northern California.

Beaumont, Texas

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We are planning on continuing the work of surrounding the Gulf of Mexico to begin August. It’s not as interesting as it could be this time of year, at least in Texas. Hurricane Debby, of course, made landfall down the coast in Apalachee Bay this morning.

At 853PM, PT, Beaumont was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with clear skies. Debby has moved into the Carolinas, with high pressure building into the south central US behind her.
Generally laminar flow in the northern US is causing a stagnant pattern in the southern US, with no cycling pressure centers to freshen things up. This also means that Debby will not be motivated in any particular direction. This will mean continued soaking, eventually flooding rains as she wobbles back to the west in Georgia and South Carolina. Fortunately for Beaumont, this will mean that moisture is going to be drawn to the Tropical feature, and will keep the town quite dry for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 76
Wednesday – Continued sun, High 98, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 97, Low 76
Wednesday – Sunshine. Hot. High 99, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 75
Wednesday – Hot with plenty of sunshine; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 100, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 77
Wednesday – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 78
Wednesday -Sunny, High 98, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 78
Wednesday – Sunny, High 99, Low 79

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 75
Wednesday – Sunny, High 99, Low 76

Satellite shows just how quiet it is in the south central, which means that it’s just going to be piping hot.

Montgomery, Alabama

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Our Bloomington streak is over. We’re headed down to Alabama as we reach the dog days of summer. Get ready to sweat.

At 253PM, ET, Montgomery was reporting a temperature of 90 degrees with clear skies. There was a smattering of isolated thunderstorms in southern Alabama, thanks to the remnants of a cold front trying to move into the area. There isn’t really a cold front in the traditional sense, but really just a change in wind direction. This may lead to less haze in the morning tomorrow, but isn’t a particularly significant change to the airmass.
Of future concern is an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes. It’s not particularly dynamic, as is often the case with summer time low pressure, but it is tapping into a wealth of heat and humidity. Quite a bit of rain and thunder is expected in the southern Great Lakes and Lower Ohio Valley through the day today, and will flare up again tomorrow evening when it reaches the western slope of the Appalachians. A band of showers and storms is expected to sink south overnight to southern Alabama, with some showers and storms becoming possible for Montgomery in the morning. A tropical invest moving through the Greater Antilles will arrive in the eastern Gulf in the evening on Saturday, and may inflame the boundary again, but by this point, it should be south of Montgomery
Tomorrow – Very hot, High 99, Low 79
Saturday – Isolated showers in the morning, then partly cloudy late, High 95, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. Hot and humid. Late rain High 98, Low 77
Saturday – Mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 76
Saturday – Periods of clouds and sun with a heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can cause flash flooding High 97, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny and hot High 98, Low 77
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny High 95, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 97, Low 78
Saturday – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 96, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 97, Low 77
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 94, Low 78

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 77
Saturday – Light rain showers, High 95, Low 75

Well, I said you were going to sweat. We’ll see how the showers pop up tomorrow, but I feel good about some stability building in. The wild card will be how much rain falls on Saturday.

Bloomington, Indiana

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We are only ever so slightly updating our forecast information from our last one. We are going from one state to the next, and not even changing the name of the town.

At 756PM, ET, Bloomington was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature 76 degrees. Thunderstorms were popping up from Shoals southeast towards Sellersburg, and they were generally moving away from Bloomington. High pressure is building over the Great Lakes, pushing the last vestiges of a cold front south and across the Ohio River. This should lead to some stability and fairly clear skies tomorrow in Bloomington.
The ridge is small in territory, but will be an effective shepherd, pushing any rising moisture around it and to the east, away from Bloomington. The remainder of the week will be dry for this tract of southern Indiana, but heat will start moving back in even behind the cold front.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 62
Friday – Sunday, a bit warmer, High 86, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 85, Low 65
Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 86F. Winds light and variable. High 86, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Beautiful with times of clouds and sun High 82, Low 65
Friday – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 84, Low 66
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, High 82, Low 66
Friday – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 82, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 84, Low 63
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 63

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 83, Low 65
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 61

Not sure why there is rain in the forecast this morning, but there was some south of town late in the evening. I tried to save an image, but it was corrupted, and now there is nothing going on.

Bloomington, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It was a very stormy Monday night for northern Illinois, as a derecho swept through, touching nearly every location in the state. Here’s hoping that things return to Normal in the Bloomington area soon.

At 956AM, CT, Bloomington was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees, a pleasant morning in the middle of what has been a warm, wet summer. Flow aloft is weak across the country, which will allow things to warm up under the sun, but humidity through the day should remain comfortable.
High pressure will continue to hold through today and to start the weekend on Saturday, however an upper level trough is then expected to rotate in from the Upper Midwest. A mostly disorganized batch of energy will tap into the Gulf of Mexico, pulling in a steady rise in moisture, and contributing to clouds and the potential for a few isolated storms on Sunday evening. These storms won’t match those seen on Monday, instead functioning as weak pop up cells that will end afternoon picnics a bit early.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 58
Sunday – Increasing clouds, and an isolated storm, High 82, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. High 79 Low 57
Sunday – Cloudy. High 80, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and delightful High 78, Low 58
Sunday – Comfortable with intervals of clouds and sun High 81, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny,  High 80, Low 59
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 81, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 58
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 78, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 59
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 64

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 80, Low 57
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 60

Look at me, Mr. Negative. I do have warmer temperatures, because it’s July and the sun is out, and I am the only outlet with rain in the forecast. It’s been so wet, why slow down now? Satellite imagery is pretty clear.

Punta Gorda, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hurricane season is off to a daunting start, with Beryl already bringing category 4 and 5 damage to islands in the Caribbean, and poised to bring soaking rain to Mexico and the Texas Coast through the remainder of the weekend. Southwest Florida has become a hurricane hot spot over the last few years, after a long era of quiet, and perhaps a bit of complacency, residents of Punta Gorda are going to be eying the tropics more warily.

At 353PM, ET, Punta Gorda was reporting a temperature of 94 degrees with clear skies. Despite Beryl churning, expecting to become a hurricane again before landfalling near Corpus Christi tomorrow, there was a bit of diurnal thunderstorm activity beginning to fire along the coast in Florida near Sarasota, and south of the area, over the Everglades. This activity will continue through the evening, feasting on temperatures in the 90s.
There is a trough through the southeastern US and touching off storms, particularly in Georgia, and this boundary is helping to draw southerly flow across the Sunshine state and exasperating the threat of storms. A weak subtropical feature will drift into the Jacksonville area and make storms more widespread across Florida. The added circulation across the area will tap into the broad Floridian instability, and late Monday looks to be even stormier than today and tomorrow.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 95, Low 77
Monday – Mostly sunny through the day, late evening 93, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early with thunderstorms becoming likely during the afternoon. High 92, Low 78
Monday – Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 91, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 94, Low 77
Monday – Humid with some sun, then turning cloudy High 89, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly sunny High 90. Low 79
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 90 Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 79
Monday – Mostly sunny. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms in the morning then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 90, Low 79
Monday – Partly cloudy with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 79

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 91, Low 79
Monday – Thunderstorm, High 90, Low 78

Clime says just the one thunderstorm in Punta Gorda. I’m going a bit warmer than the rest, following their warm day in Punta Gorda today. A look at the satellite of tropics shows that Beryl isn’t a large storm, but is on her way to Texas.

Utica, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I once had a job where I would issue forecasts regularly for Tunica, Mississippi. It has nothing in common with Utica, except Tunica’s identifier is KUTA, and I had a coworker who regularly called Tunica “Utica”, and that is all I can think of when I think of Utica. I’m sorry, Utica.

At 353PM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees and clear skies. Accompanying this warmth and sunshine was a brisk southerly well, importing still more warm air from the southeast. Low pressure is occluded and winding down over James Bay, but is still allowing for the vigorous southerly flow through western New York. Associated showers and storms won’t enjoy the instability they are seeing in southern Ontario right now, but a stray overnight shower in Utica seems likely.
The evening of Independence Day tomorrow looks OK for fireworks. Orphaned moisture in the mid-Atlantic as the low moves from James Bay to Nunavut will linger and ensure some mid level clouds with light winds. Much of the day will be clear on Friday as well, with a return of warm south winds. The next feature will be emerging in the Upper Midwest through this time, and will bring a more likely shot of rain late on Friday.
Tomorrow – Early showers, then mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 69
Friday – Sunny early with a late shower, High 88, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 86, Low 70
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, very warm and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 67
Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 88, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 69
Friday – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Partly sunny (late rain), High 88, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 69
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 66

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 63

It looks like a warm start to the holiday weekend in western New York. I hope there and everywhere stays healthy and happy, while saying a little prayer for residents of the West Indies and Jamaica, who will spend the time recovering from Hurricane Beryl. As for the Mid-Atlantic, the satellite is more ominous than the forecast portends.

Fairbanks, Alaska

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Fairbanks! Wow. This is certainly one of the most remote, but also one of the smallest towns that get forecast treatment here at Victoria-Weather. It’s a summer forecast as we approach the solstice, so it’s probably going to be a little tame, actually.

At 753PM, Alaskan Time, Fairbanks was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 74. There was a smattering of isolated showers and potentially thunderstorms ringing the city, with the most significant cell around Fort Greely. Deep low pressure south of the Aleutians is churning up moist return flow through southern Alaska, and is contributing to a few orographic showers and storms.
The system will continue eastward over the next couple of days, which will only invigorate the the shower activity in central Alaska. This will allow the activity to become more robust through the forecast period, before beginning to taper a bit in coverage and intensity as the low reaches the Panhandle and British Columbia.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High, 76, Low 54
Friday – Showers and storms early, winding down in the afternoon, High 77, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 75, Low 56
Friday – Partly cloudy skies High 76, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Becoming cloudy with a couple of showers High 76, Low 55
Friday – Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of showers High 76, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1pm and 4pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 4pm High 76, Low 55
Friday – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny High 76, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Haze in the morning. Partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce small hail frequent lightning and heavy rainfall in the afternoon. High 77, Low 59
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 76, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated storms, High 76, Low 56
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 75, Low 55

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 79, Low 54
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 54

Fun fact – I can copy and paste the first three outlets into this post, but I manually type the other forecasts in, so thanks for today ,Weatherbug. I’m not giving you an image, because I am exhausted, but find out more from Amanda Hanson at KTVF in Fairbanks.