Athens, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed to north Georgia, and the home town of the state’s biggest University. Athens was at the periphery of Hurricane Helene’s deadliest swath, so even more so, I am hopeful for a quiet forecast.

At 1251AM, ET, Athens was reporting overcast conditions with a temperature of 66 degrees. A cold front was sliding through the region, and dropping temperatures between Atlanta and Chattanooga were leading to a band of fog in the region, and overcast through the region. The boundary is becoming cut off from any synoptic scale forcing, but will continue as a surface trough, expected to pivot back to the north through the coming days.
High pressure is returning to the eastern third of the country, but the weak trough is still showing up in forecast surface analysis. The trough will curiously move to the north on the back side of this anticyclonic flow, lifting away from Athens. The lingering low level moisture will not be compelled out of the region, however, and without adequate sunlight, Sunday looks to be a cooler day than Saturday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing and warm. High 80, Low 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny, warm, High 72, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early, then partly to mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 49
Sunday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. A few sprinkles possible High 70, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 80, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 72, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 79, Low 59
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 71, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning. Partly sunny. High 80, Low 65
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 79, Low 58
Sunday – Rain showers, High 70, Low 58

I think the outlets forecasting rain are using some computer generated interpretation of the lower level moisture, calling it rain when it will instead by fog. Satellite shows just a bit of scattered clouds in the region, which are masking the fog further north.

Portland, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed out west for the forecast. British Columbia was on the receiving end of the “atmospheric river” this week. How does that translate a little further south, to Portland?

At 1104AM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with overcast skies. There were lingering low clouds along the Cascades, but clearing at low levels with some insolation. The jet stream was visible on satellite, given some mid layered clouds over Oregon. An upper level trough is off kilter, directed east to west off shore from Oregon. As it comes to alignment with a more zonal flow pattern, cold air will move into western Oregon, and there are freeze warnings in parts of the region.
As the trough pivots on land, it is expected to excrete some of it’s moisture over the center of the state, which may include a bit of rain in Portland on Wednesday evening, though most of the activity will be further south, and further inland. Behind this boundary, moist onshore flow will continue from the Pacific, which will lead to a cloudy and fairly dreary Thursday morning, with some breaks in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a chance of rain in the evening, High 57, Low 43
Thursday – Cloudy early, clearing late. High 59, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies, High 58, Low 41
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 60, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 58, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 57, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 54, Low 43
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 54, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 54, Low 42

CLI: Tomorrow – Light Rain showers, High 59, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 43

Not everyone is on board with rain, which makes sense. I think the threat is low, but given the lead time is still over 24 hours, I’m not ready to pull it out of the forecast yet. You can certainly follow the course of the jet stream on the satellite imagery.

Binghamton, New York

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Binghamton is home to one of the smallest WFO’s in the country in south central New York. One would therefor assume that the NWS, without as much ground to cover, to be able to nail this forecast. The challenge has been cast, National Weather Service.

At 107PM, ET, Binghamton was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a smattering of herringbone patterned rain showers falling across central New York and south through the Pennsylvania. This is on the back side of an area of low pressure moving through New England into the Maritimes, and riding the back of some seasonably chilly air. The inverted trough creating the precipitation, really the first of the season, will linger until it is smothered out by a broad ridge of high pressure. This will take until Wednesday morning.
The upper level trough that is aiding the persistence of this instability is going to sink into the Gulf Stream and become cut off, developing an independent feature offshore. This will cut off the wrap around moisture in Binghamton, and set the stage for high pressure, which will move into the mid-Atlantic for the remainder of Wednesday, lasting through Thursday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance for drizzle early, then clearing, High 45, Low 36
Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, with a shower of rain or wet snow, High 49, Low 37
Thursday – Sun and few passing clouds, High 56, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of morning showers; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly High 44, Low 35
Thursday – Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer High 54, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, High 48, Low 36
Thursday – Areas of frost before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 56, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a chance of rain and snow in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 48, Low 37
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Widespread Frost, High 52, Low 34

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 48, Low 36
Thursday – Partly cloudy with areas of frost, High 55, Low 34

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 44, Low 34
Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 33

Many outlets say the first snow flakes of the year may end up in Binghamton! This could be an interesting verification!

Springfield, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are countless Springfields across the country, but not many of them show up in the roster of potential forecast sites. Let’s make the Illinois version work for us.

At 1252PM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with a brisk west wind and clear skies. A cold front moved through the Great Lakes yesterday, with a stout ridge of high pressure building in behind the boundary.
A thermal ridge, backed by an upper level jet ridge will only reinforce the area of high pressure across the center of the country. Along with clear skies, expect some more unseasonable warmth in the Land of Lincoln.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 42
Tuesday – Sunny, High 76, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny skies, High 75, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 71, Low 43
Tuesday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 73, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 45

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 41

Pretty nice weather for like, May. A little strange for October. To give you an idea of how slow things are in Illinois, this is actually a satellite loop.

Idaho Falls, Idaho

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So much of the Idaho population center lies in the Snake River Valley, creating a U shape through southern Idaho. Idaho Falls is in the eastern part of the state, and I cannot confirm whether or not there are indeed snakes there.

At 653PM, MT, Idaho Falls was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. It’s been dry in the northern Rockies, and there are red flag warnings out for the region. Conversely, low pressure moving through British Columbia is going to bring enough cold air southward that there are freeze advisories for northern Idaho. This is indicative of the overnight cooldown expected in Idaho Falls tonight.
By Tuesday the next system will be moving into the Gulf of Alaska, and drawing warm air back northward. There may be a few clouds on Monday with the cooler air intruding, but it should clear out and warm right back up on Tuesday, the beginning of an uneven week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, chilly in the morning, High 64, Low 40
Tuesday – Sunny and warmer by afternoon, frost in the morning, High 71. Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon HIgh 66, Low 39
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 73, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler HIgh 66, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly sunny and nice High 72, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, warmer, High 68, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 48

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 39
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 45

I’ve checked. No typos here, this forecast just looks to be all over the map. Satellite would suggest that this shouldn’t be so complicated.

Lansing, Michigan

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On Friday, my mind naturally goes to college football, and I know that the Michigan State Spartans are squaring off against Ohio State tonight. Will travel between the two towns be challenging after the game?

At 1053PM, ET, Lansing was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. The clouds over Lansing, and the smattering of light showers in the area were remnants of Helene, which is continuing to unravel in the upper Ohio Valley. The remnants are getting weaker, but are not really expected to move out of the area through any other synoptic forcing.
While clouds and maybe some rain will be possible through the night, the disturbance left by Helene will continue to contract in its area of influence over the next 48 hours. The threat for rain in Lansing should be through by tomorrow afternoon, after which point it will be partly cloudy, an increasingly warm once again.
Tomorrow – Overcast, breaking out later in the day, Some early light rain. High 75, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast (Early rain) High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 76, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a brief shower or two High 76, Low 62
Monday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 73, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow –  10 percent chance of showers before 8am. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly sunny, High 75, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. 20 percent chance of showers through midday, High 74, Low 65
Monday – Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers, High 74, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 73, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 75, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 58

Differing opinions are seen for the rain, but for our more typically reliable outlets, well, there is more overlap. The rain isn’t showing up as clearly as the overcast from the remnants of Helene.

Continental US – Shortwave Window – IR

Glens Falls, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re going to return to Upstate New York for our forecast today. It’s been a little bit active, and even though we are looking at New York, we would still be advised to take a look at the Tropics.

At 353PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with overcast skies. Low pressure in the Gulf Stream and low pressure moving into the Great Lakes were connected by an undulating boundary running through the Mid-Atlantic. A smattering of rain showers was moving along the northern periphery of the boundary, and was likely to clip Glens Falls as this afternoon continues.
A narrow ridge will build into the region tomorrow as the boundary stretching between the two systems will break down. While Tuesday will be dry, the low will organize in the Great Lakes during that same stretch. Though the system will begin occluding fairly quickly before it arrives, a healthy shot of rain is expected starting on Wednesday morning. Because the feature will be breaking down on Wednesday, expect difficulties in clearing it out. Heavy rain is possible Wednesday morning, with more scattered and lighter rain through the afternoon and evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, morning haze, High 71, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain arrives early, lingering through the day, High 62, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 70, Low 45
Wednesday – Cloudy with showers High 62, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 44
Wednesday – Cloudy with a couple of showers High 63, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 49,
Wednesday – A chance of showers, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, High 64, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 53
Wednesday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain, High 62, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 63, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 52
Wednesday – Light rain showers, High 65, Low 47

Let’s take a look at the local take on the situation, from ABC 10 in Albany.

Visalia, California

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We have put together a good number of verifications in the last few days, but this will be our last for a bit, so we better make it worth it!

AT 656PM, PT, Visalia was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 97 degrees. Temperatures theoretically should be falling soon, but as near as Hanford was reporting a 99 degree reading. Clear skies will mean a fairly rapid cool down overnight, and dewpoints approaching 60 will lend to some morning haze.
Little change is coming at the surface over California, but a jet streak riding under a larger trough in the Gulf of Alaska will bring some high clouds to the Central Valley to start the week. It will be hot on Monday and Tuesday, but keep an eye on that Gulf of Alaska trough to provide a bit of relief late in the week.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 102, Low 64
Tuesday – Some high clouds, High 99, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. Hot. High 104, Low 65
Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky. High 99, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Blazing sunshine and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 104, Low 65
Tuesday – Blazing sunshine and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 70
Tuesday -Sunny High 99, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny, High 97, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 72
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 69

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny, High 100, Low 62

The difference in low temperature forecasts is staggering to me. I figured high pressure in the west, we’d all be consistent. More intrigue than I expected!

Eugene, Oregon

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Hello, happy forecast day, and happy game day for you Oregon Ducks fans out there. We will get through this forecast that covers the 48 hours after the game. I have no predictions for today!

AT 1254PM, PT, Eugene was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with mostly cloud skies. Temperatures were certainly warm, but they split the difference between the inland portion of the state, which was sweltering and seeing heat and red flag advisories, and the coast, which has been smothered in the marine layer all day to the is point. Expect temperatures to continue to climb through the day, even if they aren’t going to climb to the levels seen east of the Cascades.
A weak wave moving into western Canada will continue to draw some of the moisture off the north Pacific, but the preceding ridge will encourage the heat inland to continue. The dichotomy will mean continued low clouds along the coast in the morning into the early afternoon, preventing Eugene from getting to be unbearable.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and warm, High 83, Low 56
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 86, Low 56
Monday – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day.  High 84, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 86, Low 57
Monday – Times of clouds and sun High 85, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread haze after 3pm. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, High 86, Low 58
Monday – Mostly sunny,  High 84, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 58
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 54

Satellite shows some higher clouds in western Oregon, but there is certainly a healthy marine layer in the morning as well.

Glens Falls, New York

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We are headed to beautiful Upstate New York. This is the time of year for the residents to enjoy, before the autumn colors, and after kids are back to school.

At 653PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Dew points in the 60s and clear skies in the evening suggest some overnight fog or haze, especially over the various lakes of the region. Much of the day tomorrow will continue on with mostly clear skies, though increasing clouds and a congested pattern are certainly inbound.
A tropical feature lying northwest of Bermuda is projected to organize a bit and move towards Nova Scotia over the next 2 1/2 days. This is impactful, as for the time being, it is progged to pull in the latent Atlantic Coastal moisture, redirecting it away from a subtropical trough in the northern Tier that is increasing in strength and intensity as well. As the boundary approaches, the tropical feature will move into the Canadian Maritimes, opening up Atlantic moisture for the trough. Rain and some embedded thunderstorms will blossom across the mid-Atlantic, and move into eastern New York by Saturday, in the late afternoon. Rain and storms are possible through the evening, and into the night. By the time the feature reaches New York, it will be occluded, and the chance of overnight stratiform rain is higher as a result.
Tomorrow – Morning haze, High 76, Low 50
Saturday – Increasing clouds with rain, and a chance of thunder in the afternoon, High 70, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 78, Low 48
Saturday – Cloudy with rain developing later in the day. Thunder possible.

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 78, Low 47
Saturday – Cloudy and not as warm; a little afternoon rain High 71, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 52
Saturday – A slight chance of showers before 2pm, then rain, mainly after 2pm. High 73, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 54
Saturday – Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the afternoon. High 69, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 71, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 48
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 75, Low 56

Satellite shows clear skies on the East Coast, and the storm spiraling between Bermuda and New England, but not yet the wave getting ready to exit the Great Lakes.