Lansing, Michigan

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On Friday, my mind naturally goes to college football, and I know that the Michigan State Spartans are squaring off against Ohio State tonight. Will travel between the two towns be challenging after the game?

At 1053PM, ET, Lansing was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. The clouds over Lansing, and the smattering of light showers in the area were remnants of Helene, which is continuing to unravel in the upper Ohio Valley. The remnants are getting weaker, but are not really expected to move out of the area through any other synoptic forcing.
While clouds and maybe some rain will be possible through the night, the disturbance left by Helene will continue to contract in its area of influence over the next 48 hours. The threat for rain in Lansing should be through by tomorrow afternoon, after which point it will be partly cloudy, an increasingly warm once again.
Tomorrow – Overcast, breaking out later in the day, Some early light rain. High 75, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast (Early rain) High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 76, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a brief shower or two High 76, Low 62
Monday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 73, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow –  10 percent chance of showers before 8am. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly sunny, High 75, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. 20 percent chance of showers through midday, High 74, Low 65
Monday – Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers, High 74, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 73, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 75, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 58

Differing opinions are seen for the rain, but for our more typically reliable outlets, well, there is more overlap. The rain isn’t showing up as clearly as the overcast from the remnants of Helene.

Continental US – Shortwave Window – IR

Glens Falls, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re going to return to Upstate New York for our forecast today. It’s been a little bit active, and even though we are looking at New York, we would still be advised to take a look at the Tropics.

At 353PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with overcast skies. Low pressure in the Gulf Stream and low pressure moving into the Great Lakes were connected by an undulating boundary running through the Mid-Atlantic. A smattering of rain showers was moving along the northern periphery of the boundary, and was likely to clip Glens Falls as this afternoon continues.
A narrow ridge will build into the region tomorrow as the boundary stretching between the two systems will break down. While Tuesday will be dry, the low will organize in the Great Lakes during that same stretch. Though the system will begin occluding fairly quickly before it arrives, a healthy shot of rain is expected starting on Wednesday morning. Because the feature will be breaking down on Wednesday, expect difficulties in clearing it out. Heavy rain is possible Wednesday morning, with more scattered and lighter rain through the afternoon and evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, morning haze, High 71, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain arrives early, lingering through the day, High 62, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 70, Low 45
Wednesday – Cloudy with showers High 62, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 44
Wednesday – Cloudy with a couple of showers High 63, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 49,
Wednesday – A chance of showers, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, High 64, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 53
Wednesday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain, High 62, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 63, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 52
Wednesday – Light rain showers, High 65, Low 47

Let’s take a look at the local take on the situation, from ABC 10 in Albany.

Visalia, California

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We have put together a good number of verifications in the last few days, but this will be our last for a bit, so we better make it worth it!

AT 656PM, PT, Visalia was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 97 degrees. Temperatures theoretically should be falling soon, but as near as Hanford was reporting a 99 degree reading. Clear skies will mean a fairly rapid cool down overnight, and dewpoints approaching 60 will lend to some morning haze.
Little change is coming at the surface over California, but a jet streak riding under a larger trough in the Gulf of Alaska will bring some high clouds to the Central Valley to start the week. It will be hot on Monday and Tuesday, but keep an eye on that Gulf of Alaska trough to provide a bit of relief late in the week.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 102, Low 64
Tuesday – Some high clouds, High 99, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. Hot. High 104, Low 65
Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky. High 99, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Blazing sunshine and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 104, Low 65
Tuesday – Blazing sunshine and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 70
Tuesday -Sunny High 99, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny, High 97, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 72
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 69

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny, High 100, Low 62

The difference in low temperature forecasts is staggering to me. I figured high pressure in the west, we’d all be consistent. More intrigue than I expected!

Eugene, Oregon

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Hello, happy forecast day, and happy game day for you Oregon Ducks fans out there. We will get through this forecast that covers the 48 hours after the game. I have no predictions for today!

AT 1254PM, PT, Eugene was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with mostly cloud skies. Temperatures were certainly warm, but they split the difference between the inland portion of the state, which was sweltering and seeing heat and red flag advisories, and the coast, which has been smothered in the marine layer all day to the is point. Expect temperatures to continue to climb through the day, even if they aren’t going to climb to the levels seen east of the Cascades.
A weak wave moving into western Canada will continue to draw some of the moisture off the north Pacific, but the preceding ridge will encourage the heat inland to continue. The dichotomy will mean continued low clouds along the coast in the morning into the early afternoon, preventing Eugene from getting to be unbearable.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and warm, High 83, Low 56
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 86, Low 56
Monday – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day.  High 84, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 86, Low 57
Monday – Times of clouds and sun High 85, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread haze after 3pm. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, High 86, Low 58
Monday – Mostly sunny,  High 84, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 58
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 54

Satellite shows some higher clouds in western Oregon, but there is certainly a healthy marine layer in the morning as well.

Glens Falls, New York

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We are headed to beautiful Upstate New York. This is the time of year for the residents to enjoy, before the autumn colors, and after kids are back to school.

At 653PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Dew points in the 60s and clear skies in the evening suggest some overnight fog or haze, especially over the various lakes of the region. Much of the day tomorrow will continue on with mostly clear skies, though increasing clouds and a congested pattern are certainly inbound.
A tropical feature lying northwest of Bermuda is projected to organize a bit and move towards Nova Scotia over the next 2 1/2 days. This is impactful, as for the time being, it is progged to pull in the latent Atlantic Coastal moisture, redirecting it away from a subtropical trough in the northern Tier that is increasing in strength and intensity as well. As the boundary approaches, the tropical feature will move into the Canadian Maritimes, opening up Atlantic moisture for the trough. Rain and some embedded thunderstorms will blossom across the mid-Atlantic, and move into eastern New York by Saturday, in the late afternoon. Rain and storms are possible through the evening, and into the night. By the time the feature reaches New York, it will be occluded, and the chance of overnight stratiform rain is higher as a result.
Tomorrow – Morning haze, High 76, Low 50
Saturday – Increasing clouds with rain, and a chance of thunder in the afternoon, High 70, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 78, Low 48
Saturday – Cloudy with rain developing later in the day. Thunder possible.

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 78, Low 47
Saturday – Cloudy and not as warm; a little afternoon rain High 71, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 52
Saturday – A slight chance of showers before 2pm, then rain, mainly after 2pm. High 73, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 54
Saturday – Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the afternoon. High 69, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 71, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 48
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 75, Low 56

Satellite shows clear skies on the East Coast, and the storm spiraling between Bermuda and New England, but not yet the wave getting ready to exit the Great Lakes.

Evansville, Indiana

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We aren’t going to travel too far from our previous forecast spot – St. Louis – but depending on your route, we are still two, maybe three states away.

At 154PM, CT, Evansville was reporting a temperature of 84 with clear skies. There was a trough extending at the lower levels from the western Gulf of Mexico, pressing into western Tennessee, which had resulted in some clouds streaming through Kentucky, and occasionally over Evansville. This feature was penetrating a strong ridge in the eastern US, so the trough figured to get snuffed out before it can do anything interesting, particularly around Evansville.
The instability in the Gulf, however, is expect to spread into the southeastern US as high pressure begins to recede away from the mid-Atlantic. A weak trough running along the Canadian border will drape a cold front into the Plains that will be approaching the lower Ohio Valley on Friday. The cold front will pass through southern Indiana late in the day, however the instability rising out of the Gulf will prevent much moisture for reaching the Evansville city streets. While there is a small chance for rain, there is a better chance for increasing winds and an initial dose of autumnal air.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 66
Friday – Increasing clouds and wind with a spot of rain, High 85, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 91, Low 63
Friday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 93, Low 64
Friday – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in one or two spots; not as hot High 86, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 65
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 68
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, low 66
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 68

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 92, Low 66
Friday – Thunderstorm, High 89, low 67

Forecasts for Friday are an interesting study in “when do you think the front will arrive?” Later arrival suggests warmer highs on Friday. The satellite for the region shows a band of clouds spiraling all the way north from the Gulf.

St. Louis, Missouri

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Welcome to September. Lets get ourselves off to a good start with a forecast from the middle of the country.

At 751PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. High pressure was blanketing the northeastern part of the US, with the western flank laying over the Mississippi Valley. There was, as a result, a bit of moisture flowing at the mid levels bringing the scattered clouds to St. Louis.
The ridge isn’t going to be easy to move. A short wave is going to ripple at the southern flank of the subtropical jet in Canada. The cold front associated with it will struggle to produce any rain fall in the middle of the country, and will be rubbed out before it reaches the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the boundary, however, some warmth will filter in and give another taste of summer.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny and warmer, High 88, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. High 79, Low 57
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 86, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant; a gorgeous day to be outside High 78, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice High 85, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 81, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 58

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 60
Wednesday – Sunny, High 88, Low 60

I could have gone even warmer on Wednesday, but alas, what is a couple of degrees? Wispy clouds for St. Louis tonight.

Chico, California

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Labor Day weekend is approaching, bringing an end to a summer that has been mercifully short on headlines, even in northern California, which is part of the world that has earned some time off.

At 553AM, PT, nearby Oroville Airport was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees and clear skies. High pressure is embracing the West Coast, even as a short wave trough ripples out of the northern Rockies to the Northern Plains. The flow onshore is leading to some haze at the surface along the coast, but it is too low slung to be an issue as far inland as Chico.
The upper level pattern will continue to become more stable, with a ridge settling into the West Coast. With less flow aloft, there is likely to be less vigorous onshore flow either. Some stagnancy to the pattern may lead to morning haze in Chico, but clear hot days will still return in the day.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 68
Saturday – Sunny, with some morning haze, High 102, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 65
Saturday – Sunny, High 100, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Hot with plenty of sunshine; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 65
Saturday – Hot with plenty of sunshine; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny and hot, High 98, Low 67
Saturday – Sunny and hot, High 98, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 71
Saturday – Sunny, High 100, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, low 69
Saturday – Sunny, High 96, Low 69

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 64
Saturday – Sunny, High 97, Low 64

Sun will be out, so I am inclined to follow the warmer guidance. Here is a look at the musings of the Fox 40 team in northern California.

Beaumont, Texas

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We are planning on continuing the work of surrounding the Gulf of Mexico to begin August. It’s not as interesting as it could be this time of year, at least in Texas. Hurricane Debby, of course, made landfall down the coast in Apalachee Bay this morning.

At 853PM, PT, Beaumont was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with clear skies. Debby has moved into the Carolinas, with high pressure building into the south central US behind her.
Generally laminar flow in the northern US is causing a stagnant pattern in the southern US, with no cycling pressure centers to freshen things up. This also means that Debby will not be motivated in any particular direction. This will mean continued soaking, eventually flooding rains as she wobbles back to the west in Georgia and South Carolina. Fortunately for Beaumont, this will mean that moisture is going to be drawn to the Tropical feature, and will keep the town quite dry for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 76
Wednesday – Continued sun, High 98, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 97, Low 76
Wednesday – Sunshine. Hot. High 99, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 75
Wednesday – Hot with plenty of sunshine; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 100, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 77
Wednesday – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 78
Wednesday -Sunny, High 98, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 78
Wednesday – Sunny, High 99, Low 79

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 75
Wednesday – Sunny, High 99, Low 76

Satellite shows just how quiet it is in the south central, which means that it’s just going to be piping hot.

Montgomery, Alabama

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Our Bloomington streak is over. We’re headed down to Alabama as we reach the dog days of summer. Get ready to sweat.

At 253PM, ET, Montgomery was reporting a temperature of 90 degrees with clear skies. There was a smattering of isolated thunderstorms in southern Alabama, thanks to the remnants of a cold front trying to move into the area. There isn’t really a cold front in the traditional sense, but really just a change in wind direction. This may lead to less haze in the morning tomorrow, but isn’t a particularly significant change to the airmass.
Of future concern is an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes. It’s not particularly dynamic, as is often the case with summer time low pressure, but it is tapping into a wealth of heat and humidity. Quite a bit of rain and thunder is expected in the southern Great Lakes and Lower Ohio Valley through the day today, and will flare up again tomorrow evening when it reaches the western slope of the Appalachians. A band of showers and storms is expected to sink south overnight to southern Alabama, with some showers and storms becoming possible for Montgomery in the morning. A tropical invest moving through the Greater Antilles will arrive in the eastern Gulf in the evening on Saturday, and may inflame the boundary again, but by this point, it should be south of Montgomery
Tomorrow – Very hot, High 99, Low 79
Saturday – Isolated showers in the morning, then partly cloudy late, High 95, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. Hot and humid. Late rain High 98, Low 77
Saturday – Mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 76
Saturday – Periods of clouds and sun with a heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can cause flash flooding High 97, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny and hot High 98, Low 77
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny High 95, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 97, Low 78
Saturday – Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 96, Low 78

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 97, Low 77
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 94, Low 78

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 77
Saturday – Light rain showers, High 95, Low 75

Well, I said you were going to sweat. We’ll see how the showers pop up tomorrow, but I feel good about some stability building in. The wild card will be how much rain falls on Saturday.