Phoenix, Arizona

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We aren’t yet to the peak of monsoon season in the southwest, but it is certainly summer. I expect some good numbers for our forecast outlets, and a toasty temperature read out.

At 1051AM, ET, Phoenix was already reporting a temperature of 98 degrees with clear skies. It would be a hot day again today. While the monsoon season hasn’t gotten fully cranked up, there are afternoon showers and storms erupting along the New Mexico border, with a threat for afternoon activity generally north of Tucson.
The synoptic pattern is non existent, which means a persistence forecast is in order. Even if a stray storm wanders into Phoenix, the activity will erupt after peak heating has been achieved, so there won’t be much modification from being the model guidance.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 111, Low 88
Tuesday – Hot, sunny, High 110, Low 85

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 109, Low 88
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 107, Low 88

AW: Tomorrow – Hot with hazy sun; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 112, Low 89
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and very warm; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 109, Low 89

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 109, Low 88
Tuesday – Sunny, High 108, Low 87

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot High 109, Low 87
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 109, Low 92

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 109, Low 88
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 108, Low 87

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 109, Low 88
Tuesday – Sunny, High 108, Low 88

I told you that it is monsoon season, but there isn’t anything to show for it on satellite.

Fort Smith, Arkansas

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It’s a hot on this holiday weekend, with a few scattered showers and storms across the middle of the country. It’s hard to produce a forecast for anywhere right now without giving a thought to the devastating floods in Kerrville, Texas over the weekend. My heart aches for all the families that have lost in Texas. It’s another reminder that, while the strength of a storm is always a factor, often just as impactful is the time and the place the storm occurs. Donate here.

At 753PM, Fort Smith was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. A trough moving through the middle of the country is triggering a band of thunderstorms through southern Missouri, but the southward progression of the system was not expected to bring that activity as far south as Fort Smith this evening.
Tomorrow afternoon, the heat and humidity of the region will provide enough instability for some showers and storms in the afternoon. A ripple in the lower levels of the atmosphere along the US-Canadian border will touch off a new band of showers and thunderstorms in the plains. This more organized band of storms will be a threat for Fort Smith on Tuesday evening, but not before another hot humid day transpires.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with showers and storms in the evening High 92, Low 72
Tuesday – Scattered clouds with some increasing showers and storm, High 90, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 92, Low 73
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms mainly in the morning High 87, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 75
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy and humid with a thunderstorm in parts of the area High 90, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 75
Tuesday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 90, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 92, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 88, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 93, Low 75
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light showers and scattered storms, High 90, Low 74

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 95, Low 75
Tuesday – Thunderstorm, High 91, Low 75

It’s strange having this much thunder activity but so little in motion aloft. Indeed, we are in the summer season!

Sandusky, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are a surprising number of large cities in Ohio, and I’m not sure that most people are aware of all of them. Sandusky is the third largest, just on the shore of Lake Erie, however if you are familiar with Cedar Point Amusement Park, you probably have heard of Sandusky.

At 455PM, ET, Sandusky was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with overcast conditions. There was a smattering of thunderstorms across Ohio, Michigan and Lake Erie, including a few that were producing severe hail. The nearest was a storm about 20 miles south of Sandusky, drifting to the southeast. This was all a part of a slow moving warm front across the Great Lakes, which was keeping the area from the historic heatwave in the Eastern US, but also allowing for the severe storms.
The pattern in the northern Plains, at least over the lower levels, will continue to be unsettled, but the jet structure is going to lift north and away from there. The instability in the Plains will work with the heat and humidity under the jet ridge in the east, lifting north and continuing to bring thunderstorms to the Sandusky area. A surface trough will drift through the area late on Friday, bringing the best chance of thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 73
Friday – Partly cloudy, a few afternoon and evening storms, High 88, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds mixed with a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Hgh 86, Low 71
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Warm and very humid with a thunderstorm in the area; cloudy in the morning, then times of sun and clouds in the afternoon High 86, Low 71
Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in a couple of spots in the afternoon High 89, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 72
Friday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers. High 85, Low 75
Friday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 86, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 89, Low 74

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 90, Low 73
Friday – Light rain showers, High 93, Low 75

Clime is going on the warm side, even tomorrow. Here is a look at the radar, with that storm to the south of Sandusky.

Lincoln, Nebraska

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I once had a first generation GPS in my vehicle that pronounced both L’s in the name “Lincoln” and now I can’t say it any other way. Thanks, technology.

At 118PM, CT, Lincoln was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 80 degrees. The passage of a cool front was imminent. The leading gust front was already south of town – Beatrice was reporting 91 degrees — though the cold front itself was highlighted by a band of showers from Tekamah to Hastings, and temperatures behind the front were in the 60s.
The boundary is associated with low pressure headed towards Hudson Bay, along a jet that is not expected to start moving. A heat dome on the east coast is holding things at bay in the Plains, so the boundary north of Lincoln will merely oscillate and fade in southeastern Nebraska. Given it’s position today, there may be some strong thunderstorms tonight in the Lincoln area, but the window is closing quickly. Tomorrow, the remnant boundary may lead to a few showers. A trough in the Desert Southwest will help push the surface boundary north by mid-week, and Lincoln will be hot and drier on Wednesday afternoon, despite some shower threat on Wednesday morning. The jet itself will remain in place, and gusty winds will be seen throughout the period.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers early and storms in the afternoon, High 83, Low 70
Wednesday – Lingering showers in the morning, then clearing and hot, High 94, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – A few showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 83, Low 69
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm, especially late; humid; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 82, Low 71
Wednesday – Partly sunny, breezy and warmer; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 92, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10am, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 70
Wednesday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 95, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.  High 79, Low 71
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid High 91, Low 72

WN: tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers and scattered storms, High 87, Low 70
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 95, Low 72

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 84, Low 70
Wednesday – Thunderstorm, High 93, Low 72

I think a lot of people are looking at that band of showers, representing the cold front, and willing it to keep moving further and further south. It’s hot out east!

Pueblo, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There is a lot to be said about the tremendous change in geography from west to east in Colorado, but not enough is noted about the changes you see along the front range from north to south. Denver is a very different town from Pueblo, from the setting to the people. The weather is usually fairly dissimilar as well, and I’m sure it will be again this week.

At 1053PM, MT, Pueblo was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. While the pattern at the highest levels of the atmosphere was fairly unremarkable, the dry line is becoming active, and there was a bit of a curl to the flow over west Texas. This is helping focus todays and future storms around the dry line.
There will be a westerly flow throughout the period over Colorado, which will result in some spotty showers over the Rockies, but the combination of moisture being restricted from the Gulf and the downsloping winds will render precipitation in Pueblo improbably, and sun and warm temperatures the more likely scenario for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warm, High 92, Low 57
Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 91, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly sunny early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 90, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 92, Low 55
Thursday – Sun followed by some clouds and very warm, turning breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm around High 94, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 57
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. High 87, Low 62
Thursday – Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 91, Low 58
Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms High 92, Low 57

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, high 91, Low 56
Thursday – Light rain showers, High 93, Low 58

Certainly some discrepancy in the rain forecasts. I’m standing by myself with this one, but I feel good. Maybe a few showers down by Trinidad, but I think Pueblo stays dry. Clouds are overshooting the Rockies this evening

Dalton, Georgia

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Dalton is an interesting place for a forecast visit. It is so close to the commercial weather Mecca that is Atlanta, and yet so far. Dalton is in the higher terrain of northwest Georgia, which can lead to some interesting weather perturbations that are dissimilar even to the spots just down the road.

At 1053AM, ET, Dalton was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with overcast skies. A sharp upper level ridge was tilted across New England, which was allowing for some clean radars for the moment, however the pattern aloft is quite active, including a sharp trough over the Northern Plains, and of more local concern, a weak lower level short wave over the eastern Gulf.
The strength of the upper trough and the moisture attendant with the weak Gulf low will interact to bring clouds and moisture north into the Peach State. The Gulf trough is going to weaken as it drifts ashore, and while clouds are expected in Dalton both Wednesday and Thursday, the precipitation associated with those clouds will be light. Aloft, the northern jet is going to phase down and reconstitute north of the Canadian border, robbing the area of conflicting air masses, which will ultimately make the next two days fairly dull and dreary.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with spots of drizzle, High 83, low 66
Thursday – Light rain possible early, then mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 86, Low 66
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 84, Low 65
Thursday – Humid with plenty of sun High 85, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly sunny High 85, Low 66
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 86, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83, Low 67
Thursday – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 87, Low 66
Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 86, low 66

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 85 Low 64
Thursday – Sunny, High 84, Low 65

The satellite is pretty clean right now, and it won’t be real ugly later, but it will certainly be different.

Green Bay, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

In NFL circles, Green Bay is known as the “Frozen Tundra”. Something tells me that, rolling into June, that name isn’t as apt.

At 456PM, CT, Green Bay was in reporting rain. There were spotty showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, including a few that have been severe with large hail. A broad area of low pressure centered over Eastern Canada is trailing a few different frontal and post frontal bands. There is severe weather s a result of this system on the east coast, and the weather in Eastern Wisconsin is the most significant post frontal activity.
The disorganized upper level pattern surrounding the trough is going to coalesce as a jet trough overnight into tomorrow morning. This will make the overall pattern more transient. Lingering shower activity will wrap up this evening, and tomorrow will be dry as a weak ridge enters the picture. The next feature will be more appropriately centered for this time of year, and will emerge from the Canadian Prairies. By Sunday afternoon, America’s Dairyland will be within the warm sector of this feature, with some isolated showers and storms popping up late in the day over central Wisconsin, but the Lake cooled air should keep them away from Green Bay.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 46
Sunday – Mostly sunny, warmer with isolated clouds late, High 76, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow -Sunny skies. High 73, Low 47
Sunday – Sunny.  High 77, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 73, Low 47
Sunday – Hazy sunshine and warm; smoke from Canadian wildfires will obscure the sky High 79, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of smoke after 4pm. Sunny, High 69, Low 45
Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Areas of smoke in the afternoon High 70, Low 48
Sunday – Sunny. High 74, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45
Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 47
Sunday – Sunny, High 79. Low 42

For more on that smoke, take a look at the WBAY weather forecast. For more on the storms this afternoon, check out the radar loop below. For more on the forecast from Clime tomorrow, I can’t help you.

Vineland, New Jersey

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After our forecast in south Texas, we are going to south Jersey, which are approximately the same place, culturally and climatologically, I think.

At 1053PM, ET, Vineland was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with clear skies. Upper level flow was split, with an elongated, main flow running just north of the Canadian border, and an isolated, cut off trough base along the Gulf Coast. Both were generating low pressure, with high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic in between.
The southern trough, being isolated, will have a tougher time sustaining itself, though that is the feature moving towards New Jersey. High pressure will hold it at bay until late in the day on Monday, but the blob of increasingly disorganized moisture in the southeast will introduce a little bit of light shower activity after sunset.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 48
Monday – Increasing clouds, a chance of showers late, High 76, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83. Low 52
Monday – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 80, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow = Warmer with sunshine and a few clouds; dry for outdoor plans on Mother’s Day High 81, Low 50
Monday – Pleasant; brilliant sunshine in the morning followed by sun and areas of high clouds High 74, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  , High 80, low 51
Monday – Partly sunny,High 77, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 79, Low 51
Monday – Partly sunny. High 74, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 52
Monday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 77, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 52

Two camps, clearly, on the timing of clouds and precipitation, and it is really going to affect the Monday high temperatures. Below is a look at the satellite, with clouds southwest of Vineland that will lazily move in. Happy Mother’s Day!

Laredo, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Way down south in Texas for our forecast, right along the Mexican border.

At 1056PM, Central Time, Laredo was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A broad cut off trough over the northern Gulf Coast is rotating flow throughout the area. The offshore, west Texas breezes were keeping places like Laredo fairly tolerable and pretty dry.
The low and the trough fostering it are going to be slow to move out, but the good news for Laredo is that they are in a dry regime, on the back end of the low with dry northerly flow persisting in south Texas.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 86, Low 64
Sunday – A bit more sun, High 90, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 88, Low 65
Sunday – Mainly sunny. Hight 94, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 86, Low 64
Sunday – Plenty of sun High 90, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 66
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. High 85, Low 70
Sunday – Sunny. high 89, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 66
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 64

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers High 84, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny High 89, Low 63

The rain that Clime has might be one of those hallucinating AI things you hear about. It’s pretty clear on satellite right now.

Albany, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Guess who’s back! After a long Easter hiatus, I’m back to bring some weather updates, and we will start with a look in the deep south.

At 753AM, ET, Albany was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 68 degrees. Lingering shower activity over the last couple of days has led to clouds and fog, particularly north and east of Albany. It wasn’t likely to advect out of the region, instead holding on for the heating of the day to scour moisture out. This will also destabilize the region, and more showers and storms are possible throughout north Georgia again tomorrow.
The moisture in the area is a result both of the beginning of the summer season, but also a remnant trough, orphaned by a weak area of low pressure that transitioned out of the Canadian Maritimes in the last couple of days. A weak ripple in the Upper Midwest will provide enough of a draw over the next day or so to pull instability out of the south. It will get warmer and more humid in Albany, but the threat of rain will lessen tomorrow. Because the wave is shortwaved, it will be inclined to move, and will do so into a more cyclogenic region. A weak cold front will arrive in south Georgia by Saturday evening, brining about the threat for a few isolated thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated drizzle overnight, High 88, Low 67
Saturday Isolated showers early and late, otherwise hot and humid, High 90, low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 88, Low 65
Saturday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals High 90, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Becoming cloudy High 88, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly sunny and warm High 89, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 89, Low 64
Saturday – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, High 90, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 65
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 64
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 89, Low 65

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 63
Saturday – Sunny, High 88, Low 63

I suspect models are picking up on the moisture which will lead to fog across south Georgia for the next two overnights, however I’ve also seen the radar there, with smatterings of light rain everywhere. I’m too skittish to take it out. Look how cloudy it was this morning!