New York, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Heading for the Big Apple for our first forecast of 2024. Absolutely no pressure, right?

At 151PM, ET, Central Park was reporting cloudy skies with a brisk northwest wind and a temperature of 44 degrees. Temperatures across the region were in the mid-40s with the northwest wind, as the area found itself between a large north Atlantic storm and a weaker system in New England. A line of showers extending from Concord, New Hampshire to White Plains was going to pass through the City in the next couple of hours, but given the presence of the offshore feature, not much rain is anticipated.
High pressure will follow the messy system into town, giving the New York area a day to prepare for the first strong winter storm seen in a couple of years. Strong low pressure is going to start organizing in west Texas overnight tonight, and begin sweeping through the Gulf Coast by morning. Saturday morning, the feature will be a formidable system centered over Mobile Bay, getting ready to press north. Meanwhile, a Clipper in the Upper Midwest will be moving eastward, supplying cold air for the pending storm. Precipitation will move in around nightfall. While snow will be persistent in New Jersey, Downstate New York and Connecticut, it will struggle to accumulate initially on Long Island, Staten Island and Manhattan. There could be an inch or two in some parts of the Bronx before Sunday rolls around. Warm air will intrude on Sunday and wash away any snow that does accumulate, but in the evening, things will get more interesting, and accumulating snow is possible even in Manhattan.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 26
Saturday – Clouds increase, with rain and some flakes mixed in late, High 38, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 40, Low 28
Saturday – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. High 39, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 39, Low 27
Saturday – Rather cloudy; snow and deteriorating travel conditions at night High 40, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 38, Low 28
Saturday – A chance of snow after 2pm, mixing with rain after 5pm. Cloudy, High 40, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 35, Low 26
Saturday – Cloudy. Rain and snow likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation, High 36, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 37, Low 29
Saturday – Partly cloudy with a wintry mix likely, High 41, Low 32

CLI: tomorrow – Sunny, High 39, Low 27
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 37, Low 30

Well, that was a lot. I think the real chance for accumulation will be just outside of the city, and after our forecast period expires, but I can’t well leave it out, right? Here is the rain headed for NYC right now.

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Kansas City, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Kansas City’s larger portion is on the Missouri side of the river, but many of the large suburbs exist on the Kansas side. None of this really helps with our forecast, or dictates a different climate between the towns.

At 253PM, CT, Kansas city was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 49 degrees. West-northwest winds were blustery and bringing temperatures down a bit, but without the clouds that are being seen further to the north, it’s still a quite bearable end to the year.
The clouds and whatnot seen in the Great Lakes is a western lobe of a broader trough on the east coast. The cooler air mass is going to continue sinking further south, even without a particular threat for precipitation. This will drive an inactive cold front through Kansas City overnight, leading to a cooler day tomorrow before a stout, clear area of high pressure moves into the middle of the country.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 36, Low 25
New Years Day – Sunny, High 37, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 39, Low 28
New Years Day – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 40, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Colder with times of clouds and sun High 37, Low 29
New Years Day – Mostly sunny High 41, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny,  High 36, Low 28
New Years Day – Sunny, High 37, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 35, Low 29
New Years Day – Sunny, High 36, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 37, Low 28
New Years Day – Mostly Sunny, High 37, Low 25

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 37, Low 27
New Years Day – Sunny, High 50, Low 25

Those lows in the V-W forecast are a bit lower because we used the information out of the Kansas City airport, which is well outside the city center. Check out the forecast for KCTV-5. There is a distinct focus on the Chiefs football game this weekend.

Macon, Georgia

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Macon is right in the heart of Georgia, and the home of Mercer University. I hope either of these facts might help you with Jeopardy! some day.

At 353PM, ET, Macon was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with fair skies. Winds were from the northwest, and there was a brisk flow aloft thanks to occluded low pressure over the center of the country. The primary round of wet weather has already proceeded offshore, however the cold air still remains nearer the Mississippi Valley. This postfrontal trough will not reconstitute as a cold front, however, and shouldn’t bring any rain to central Georgia.
The jet structure is robust, as it should be this time of year, and is guiding the low pressure center that brought the rain to town northeastward, and will not allow time for the secondary boundary to organize any precipitable activity. Even so, expect temperatures to continue to drop over the next couple of days, with a chilly Friday on the horizon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 41
Friday – Cloudy and cooler, High 49, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 61, Low 44
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 52, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 61, Low 45
Friday – Cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 52, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny high 60, Low 44
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 57, Low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 44
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 51, Low 33

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 61, Low 39
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 53, Low 34

A look at the satellite imagery shows some clearer skies rolling into Georgia, behind a very sharp air mass demarcation through Alabama.

Huntsville, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s time to put together a forecast in this very warm December. We’re far enough south already that it’s not a concern usually, but I’m not worried about putting snow in the forecast. Will there be storms?

At 1053PM, CT, Huntsville was reporting overcast skies with a breezy northwest wind and a temperature of 44. The clouds are working to arrest a brief cool down as a narrow trough swings through the Great Lakes behind the strong system crashing through the mid-Atlantic. Satellite shows that Huntsville is under the last swatch of overcast, and cooler temperatures should come through by daybreak tomorrow.
Cooler temperatures are going to be short lived. High pressure and flow from the southwest will work to bring the warmth back to town. The ridge will take more than the next two days to sneak back out of town, so unseasonable warmth can be expected. Clearer skies overnight will provide a cooler start on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 35
Tuesday – Clear and a tad cooler, High 48, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 51, Low 35
Tuesday – Sunny skies. High 45, Low 22

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy; breezy this afternoon High 53, Low 36
Tuesday – Plenty of sunshine, but chilly High 45, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 52, Low 34
Tuesday – Sunny, High 44, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy. Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 53, Low 38
Tuesday – Sunny, High 46, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 37
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 45, Low 24

CLI: Tomorrow – Clear, High 50, Low 27
Tuesday – Sunny, High 41, Low 21

Looks terrific for Huntsville, but a pretty reasonable cool down on Tuesday. The satellite shows that last wisp of clouds in north Alabama.

Flagstaff, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Northern Arizona has weather that is more akin to the Rockies, which makes it a more palatable destination for people visiting the Grand Canyon. Flagstaff is a lot more palatable than some people think when they hear “Arizona”. It would be a real shock to hit 110 in Flagstaff.

At 157PM, PT, Flagstaff was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with clear skies. An upper level trough was tailed east to west from the central Plains towards the Great Basin. Unlike tilted troughs normally behave, this will shove off to the east overnight, with high pressure building into the western US.
The high pressure in the region will allow temperatures to warm up a bit. The subtropical jet will still run through northern Mexico, so summer like temperatures are not going to return to Arizona, with only a few fair clouds for Flagstaff.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 42, Low 19
Tuesday – Fair skies, High 48, Low 18

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. High 42, Low 19
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 47, Low 19

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and chilly High 41, Low 21
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 47, Low 17

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 43, Low 16
Tuesday – Sunny, High 47, Low 16

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 40, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 46, Low 21

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 43, Low 17
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 18

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 40, Low 20
Tuesday – Sunny, High 45, Low 20

Some diversity to the temperature forecasts, which is nice, and makes sense. Like I said, northern Arizona is very much like the Rockies, which are mercurial at their best. Satellite shows some streaming clouds in southern Arizona, and more congested clouds north of the border.

Monroe, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Saturday, everyone. Let’s see if the weather will keep everyone happy to begin the weekend.

At 415PM, ET, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 49 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure in eastern Canada has recently dragged a cool front through town, which will bring cooler but still pleasant weather through the weekend.
A deep trough of the mid-latitude jet is going to traverse the desert Southwest and begin the development of a surface trough that will organize over the Red River Valley. By Monday evening, the system will move to the northeast, approaching the Lower Ohio Valley. The leading edge of rain will arrive after sunset on Monday night, to begin a pretty wet middle of the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 49, Low 29
Monday – Increasing clouds with rain late, High 45, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 51, Low 30
Monday – Cloudy. Late Rain, High 45, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 50, Low 33
Monday – Sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon (late rain) High 46, Low 35

NWS: Sunny, High 49, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46. Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 31
Monday – Cloudy (Late rain) High 45, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 29
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46, Low 30

CLI: Tomorrow – sunny, High 48, Low 32
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46, Low 34

Some difference of opinion on whether there will actually be rain on Monday evening. Looks pretty likely to me. Not now, though. Pretty quiet now.

Logan, Utah

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Winter is fast approaching, which is great news for members of the skiing and snowboarding community. The Wasatch are certainly poplar spots for that winter weather activity, but are we there yet?

At 951PM, MT, Logan was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with clear skies and a light northwest wind behind a weak cool front that passed by earlier this morning. Clear skies prevailed across the Beehive State, with a ridge of high pressure nosing into the area from the west.
The jet structure is going to bubble around the Intermountain West, with a southern jet beginning to trough and engender some development in the Mexican Desert, while a ridge will only strengthen in the northern Plains. This will lead to some sustained stability, and late season warmth in Logan.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 23
Sunday – Sunny, High 55, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 51, Low 26
Sunday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 56, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 49, Low 24
Sunday – Brilliant sunshine High 55, Low 21

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 51, Low 26
Sunday – Sunny High 57, Low 29

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 29
Sunday – Sunny, High 48, Low 32

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 27
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 57, Low 27

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 50, Low 25
Sunday – Partly Cloudy, High 54, Low 25

All right, here is my guess: The top three outlets and Clime updated their forecasts with the new model guidance already, and the NWS just hasn’t. Guidance clearly is showing a chilly Sunday morning, and it’s already busted on the warm side, so trending colder makes more sense. With this confusion, let’s check with a local perspective, from KSL in Salt Lake City.

Sherman, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our forecast takes us to the Red River Valley, northeast of the MetroPlex. The Thanksgiving Holiday is soon approaching, so I have to believe more of us are looking at the weather in even more places.

At 250pm, CT, Sherman was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with clear skies. While there was a weak jet streak bringing high clouds to central Texas, the strongest flow aloft was well to the north. There was a strong wave of low pressure preparing to develop in the northern High Plains, which will act t draw flow from the south.
The strong jet to the north will usher the surface feature along while forming into a long waved, low amplitude ridge. This will provide stability to the region, and lead to some warmer air and sunny skies.
Tomorrow – Breezy partly cloudy, High 82, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunny, High 85, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky, High 82, Low 61
Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky. High 82, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and very warm; great day to be outside High 82, Low 61
Tuesday – Breezy and very warm with plenty of sunshine; dry weather for getting out to vote High 83, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 62
Tuesday – Sunny, High 79, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 62

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 60
Tuesday – Sunny High 84, Low 62

A look at the satellite shows that jet streak I mentioned earlier. A look at Accuweather’s forecast shows a bit of editorial commentary suggesting that they had too much free time for this forecast.

Cincinnati, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are a lot of quirks about Cincinnati. First, the airport is actually across the Ohio River in Kentucky. Next, the radar terminal for the area is actually to the north, in Wilmington, because the WFO there services Columbus, Dayton and Springfield, as well. It begs the question: what exactly IS Cincinnati?

At 352PM, ET, Cincinnati was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The clouds were patchy or much of the tri-state region, with clearer skies at other nearby sites. Low pressure over the northern Plains is entangled with some tropical energy from the south and drenching the western Great Lakes. The two bits of energy are also attached to parallel jet streaks, which are boosting the energy but hampering the mobility of the feature.
The leading band of rain is diminishing over Indiana and northwest Ohio tonight, and will wear itself out
through the morning hours tomorrow. The trailing cold front will be dragged into the region later in the day Friday, arriving in the predawn on Saturday. By this point, low pressure will be developing over the central Rockies, with a warm front rising towards the Ohio Valley by the late evening, bringing a chance for steadier rain to the region after a cooler day beforehand.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with scattered showers, High 74, Low 63
Saturday – Overcast with light rain early, cooler, and more rain late, High 67, Low 57 (Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High 76, Low 64
Saturday – Cloudy. Periods of rain early. High 66, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warm with periods of clouds and sunshine High 76, Low 64
Saturday – Variably cloudy with a thunderstorm High 68, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain after 5pm. Partly sunny High 77, Low 65
Saturday – A chance of rain. Cloudy High 67, Low 60

WB: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain, High 72, Low 66
Saturday – Cloudy with a chance of rain, High 65, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 77, Low 65
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with isolated storms, High 67, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 76, Low 61
Saturday – Thunderstorm, High 66, Low 58

It will be particularly interesting to keep an eye on the temperature trendline for Saturday. Post cold front to overcast to warm front, it could go a lot of different directions.

Olympia, Washington

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to Washington for this weekend issued forecast. Olympia is the capital of Washington, and the southern most city on the Puget Sound. Let’s check out Western Washington.

At 154PM, PT, Olympia was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with a low overcast that was blanketing most of the Sound. There was a little bit of rain mixed with these clouds moving north through Centralia, with a some light rain likely to come to the capitol in the next couple of hours.
A weak circulation off the coast is driving flow on shore, which is helping to encourage the thick layer of coastal clouds that Washington is enduring this morning. The low is not expected to deteriorate until a parent upper level trough moves onshore late tomorrow. There will be a break in the clouds on Monday morning, but the upper level flow will be reinforced, and a trough will redevelop over Vancouver. The threat on Monday night will be from rain, rather than simply from overcast, though most of the activity will come to the north Sound.
Tomorrow – Overcast through the afternoon, chance of a little bit of drizzle. High 61, Low 52
Monday – Breaks in the clouds early, then clouds return with some late showers, High 56, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 64, Low 51
Monday – Partly cloudy High 59, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the area High 65, Low 49
Monday – Cloudy High 57, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny,  High 61, Low 51
Monday – Mostly cloudy (late rain), High 58, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 53
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 56, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers, High 60, Low 52
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 47

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 48
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 43

I think I am more aggressive with my rain forecast because of the rain falling with the weak system in the area today that isn’t being handled by the models.