Atlantic City, New Jersey

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Is is a good sign that the first forecast of the year is from a city notable for it’s gambling?

At 454PM, ET, Atlantic City was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with clear skies. The region is between two jet streak troughs, which is continuing to lead to a deep area of low pressure over Nunavut that continues to instigate Lake effect snow in the eastern Great Lakes. The southern flank of the trough is going to provide a nurturing environment for cyclogenesis in the Lower Mississippi Valley initially, moving east towards the Carolinas.
Low pressure will continue to move eastward today from its present home in Arkansas, eventually reaching the Gulf Stream by tomorrow evening. The feature will subsequently continue to deepen and move north along the oceanic current. The pattern aloft will keep the unsettled weather offshore, and the welling from the south may lead to a bit of a warm up for Sunday. Not significant, but every degree this time of year helps.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 22
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 40, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies High 33, Low 22
Sunday – Partly cloudy. High 37, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with some sunshine giving way to clouds High 34, Low 25
Sunday – Mostly sunny and breezy High 38, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds High 33, Low 22
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny High 38, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy High 31, Low 25
Sunday – Mostly sunny. High 36, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy 33, Low 23
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 28

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast High 34, Low 23
Sunday – Sunny, High 38, Low 28

There is going to be a bit of a range inland where the airport lies and the city center. so we will see how the forecast plays out. Here is the Accuweather regional forecast, via ABC news in Philadelphia.

Reno, Nevada

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Holidays, everyone! This forecast for Reno will take us across Christmases Eve and Day. Christmas in Reno, sounds like it should be airing on Hallmark Channel.

At 1055AM, PT, Reno was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies and a brisk south wind. This is in response to a strong trough along the West Coast. A center of circulation lies off the California shore, with southerly flow rushing through the Golden State. The Sierras are beset by heavy snow, and are also keeping Reno clear for now. Most of the region is covered by clouds, however there is a donut hole over western Nevada.
The low itself will be moving northeast before arriving on the coast on the Oregon coast. The robustness of this feature and the paired advance of the jet structure will allow for a fully realized cold front to be dragged along with it. Expect some substantial rainfall, particularly for Reno, on Christmas Eve. The surface feature and leading edge of the jet will continue east of the region by Christmas. The base of the trough will still foster cyclonicity in the Pacific, which will mean more southerly flow in the west. While Reno will see less precipitation for Christmas, the Sierras will not, and travel into California from Reno will remain treacherous.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, High 43, Low 37
Christmas – Partly cloudy, with some passing showers, High 37, Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Periods of rain early High 46, low 39
Christmas – Rain showers, with winds diminishing later in the day. High 44, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler with a bit of rain; breezy in the afternoon Hgh 46, Low 39
Christmas – Mostly cloudy, becoming windier and chilly with a couple of showers High 44, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. Snow level 6700 feet lowering to 6100 feet High 50, Low 40
Christmas – Rain. Snow level 5700 feet High 46, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Rain and snow. Snow level lowering to 6500 feet. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. High 46, Low 39
Christmas – Snow and rain. Snow level 5500 to 6000 feet.  High 43, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with rain, High 49, Low 39
Christmas – Cloudy with rain, High 46, Low 35

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers High 51, Low 41
Christmas – Rain showers High 47, Low 39

Nevadans aren’t often beset with soggy days, so getting it on Christmas is particularly bad luck. they have a pretty nice window of sunshine right now, however!

Redding, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Northern California tonight, to a part of the state that can be just as hot as the southern part of the state, especially inland, like Redding is.

At 753PM, PT, Redding was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 46 degrees. There was a little bit of haze at the surface, as there appeared to be throughout the area. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska has banded a cold front moving into the west coast, with a few showers seen from Yreka to Eureka. As is often the case, the first attempt at translating through the area will be unsuccessful, however the strong jet will move inland, and low pressure will reconstitute north of Vancouver Island by tomorrow.
Rain will move into Redding in the afternoon, which will be heavy at times. Because of the terrain on the coast, the center of low pressure will appear to hop from north of Vancouver Island to the southern part of British Columbia. The phasing of the low is indicative of this system being particularly strong for the west coast. The trough is strong and short waved enough to continue moving eastward into the Prairies. Rain will continue in northern California through Wednesday morning, but will start to clear out through the afternoon. Unfortunately, there will likely be some low clouds and fog leftover as a parting gift, particularly after night fall.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain becoming heavier in the afternoon, High 50, Low 41
Wednesday – A bit more sun in the afternoon, but rain early, High 56, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow -Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 47, Low 45
Wednesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day (early rain). High 52, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and cool with a little rain High 51, Low 44
Wednesday – A couple of morning showers; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 58, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 8am. Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am High 55, Low 46
Wednesday – Showers. High 58, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Widespread fog. . . Locally dense in the morning. High 46, Low 46
Wednesday – Rain showers. High 48, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 55, Low 46
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 58, Low 46

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 53, Low 37
Wednesday – Rain showers, High 52, Low 44

Oh my goodness, this forecast is haunted. I have reviewed the numbers, and there are no typos. Weatherbug has the same high as the low tomorrow. Clime really is 9 degrees colder than the what most others think. The rain timelines are all different. This verification is going to be something else. Here is the radar, with showers northwest of Redding.

Hot Springs, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are only two more shopping weekends before Christmas (including this one) so I recommend you get out there ASAP!

At 1153AM, CT, Hot Springs was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with overcast skies. A trough is sinking from the north, with a band of snow scooting through Iowa and Missouri, with a blob of clouds pressing south into Arkansas. The clouds are layered at the lower levels, and aren’t likely to scatter out through the day today.
Tomorrow will be a very cold day for western Arkansas as cold air continues to cycle into the area. Relief will be on the way during the work week, with a thermal ridge starting to build back in late on Monday.
Tomorrow – Sunny and cold, High 37, Low 23
Monday – A hair warmer in the afternoon, High 46, Low 17

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. Turning colder. High 34, Low 26
Monday – A mainly sunny sky. High 43, Low 20

AW: Tomorrow – Colder with plenty of sun High 38, Low 25
Monday – Not as cold with plenty of sun High 45, Low 20

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 26, Low 24
Monday – Sunny, High 41, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Much cooler High 34, Low 30
Monday – Sunny. Not as coo High 40, Low 20

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 31, Low 24
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 18

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 22
Monday – Sunny, High 45, Low 18

“Hot” Springs, am I right? There was a much greater diversity to the spread of forecast temperatures from model to model today for a clear sky forecast than what I like to see. The clouds are low enough that they aren’t really showing up on the satellite.

Sherman, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The forecast for the day will come from north Texas. Given the pattern right now, this might be one of the colder forecasts you see from Texas.

At 115PM, CT, Sherman was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees. Skies were clear behind a trough sweeping a band of clouds through the Piney Woods. Dew points in north Texas have already dropped off, but the lag in temperature gradient goes back to Kansas, where temperatures have dropped into the 30s. A succession of clippers have moved through the Upper Midwest, riding a strong jet streak through the Plains. The jet streak is expected to start oscillating through the weekend, with high pressure then building in the south central US.
High pressure building in the Plains will do so on the back of cold weather from Canada. With a deep trough at the upper levels, there is enough cyclonic flow to continue reinforcing cold air in North Texas. The thermal ridge will wait until the middle of next week to start taking temperatures back up. Before then, don’t be surprised to see some sub-freezing air arrive in Sherman
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 58, Low 39
Sunday – Sunny and a bit warmer, High 42, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 61, low 38
Sunday – Sunny. High 42, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun; best day of the weekend High 65, low 37
Sunday – Mostly sunny; breezy in the morning, then turning much colder high 47, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, high 63, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny, high 46, Low 28

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 60, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny. Much cooler High 44, low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny, High 46, Low 28

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 60, Low 38
Sunday – Sunny, High 42, low 27

It’s going to be interesting to see how quickly temperatures fall off on Saturday night. There is a good chance that is a midnight high. It’s clear right now, but don’t let that fool you!

La Crosse, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hello, forecast friends. We are taking our forecast express to the upper Mississippi Valley for our first forecast in December.

At 1053AM, CT LaCrosse was reporting a temperature of 22 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a sharp trough angled to the southwest that divided the country in half. The ferocity of the trough was leading to overcast through the region, and a little bit of light snow throughout the north central US, however the severe angle it is taking towards the Four Corners is preventing the feature from bringing much moisture to the region. There will probably be a few flakes around LaCrosse this afternoon, but the real story is the cold high pressure behind the boundary.
The tilt of the trough aloft will make it disinclined to move off its spot. The high pressure at the surface, therefore, will be similarly rooted to its location. With the ridge holding firm, the cold air associated with it will remain in place as well. Unfortunately, this time of year, sunshine can only do so much, and despite mostly sunny skies, it will remain fairly chilly through the middle of the week.
Tomorrow – Some early flakes, then dropping temperatures, High 28, Low 3
Thursday – Clear and cold, High 15, Low -4

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. A few flurries or snow showers possible.  High 29, Low 7
Thursday -Mostly sunny skies.  High 16, Low -3

AW: Tomorrow – A morning flurry; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly, High28, Low 1
Thursday – A morning flurry; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly, High 13, Low -12

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of flurries between 10am and noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 26, Low 4
Thursday – Sunny, High 13, Low -6

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of flurries in the morning then mostly sunny in the afternoon High 28, Low 9
Thursday – Mostly sunny. High 13, Low 4

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light snow showers, High 27, Low 4
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 13, Low -6

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 27, Low 4
Thursday – Sunny, High 15, Low -1

Here is a look at the afternoon satellite picture, with a few clouds smothering Wisconsin, thanks to that strong upper level jet. And yes, Accuweather is going -12 on Thursday, while Weatherbug is going 4 above. Attribute this to the GFS, which is saying -20 (!) on Thursday morning. Yikes!

Raleigh, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Holiday travel is at its peak this week, and especially tomorrow. We are taking to North Carolina for our forecast for this busy day.

At 1051PM, ET, Raleigh was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 36 degrees. The clouds may save the area from an especially chilly night, and they are patchy, with most reporting areas in the region reporting clear skies. An occluded front in the Plains attaches to a secondary low over eastern Tennessee. Temperatures in Georgia and South Carolina are about 20 degrees warmer than they are in North Carolina, indicating the warm front. This is in active, however the cold and occluded fronts are well defined on radar, from the Upper Ohio Valley to northern Alabama and on to east Texas, where there is some convective activity.
The parent low is moving northeastward, and the secondary low doesn’t have a lot of vorticity support to carry on, and the southern cold frontal portion of the boundary will wither, even as a cold surface high pressure center slides from the Great Lakes to the Carolinas. Expect a chilly night Sunday after a few showers in the evening. Aloft, the pattern features a sharp trough moving out of the Rockies into the Plains. The ridge sweeping into the Carolinas overnight Sunday to Monday will kick out quickly. Rain is returning with more fervor on Tuesday, but for our purposes, that should only mean increasing clouds on Monday night.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a shot of rain in the afternoon. High 53, Low 29
Monday – Sunny, with clouds increasing after sundown, High 49, Low 31

TWC – Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional light rain in the afternoon. High 55, Low 30
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 49, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a couple of showers in the afternoon High 56. Low 33
Monday – Cloudy in the morning, then times of clouds and sun in the afternoon High 51, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly between 2pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 30
Monday – Mostly sunny (early rain) High 50, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain in the morning then a chance of rain in the afternoon High 54, Low 33
Monday – Mostly sunny.  High 47, Low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 54, Low 32
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 34

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 58, Low 30
Monday – Sunny, High 49, Low 33

It’s a busy stretch, especially in the Carolinas. You can keep an eye on things in Raleigh on WRAL’s live radar stream.

Providence, Rhode Island

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Tonight’s forecast will take us to New England through the Thanksgiving holiday. How will Rhode Islanders enjoy the day?

At 451PM, ET, Providence was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with overcast skies. Rain was approaching, already sneaking into the southwestern corner of Rhode Island, at the leading edge of a warm front. The system is deeply occluded, and the cold front will pass through overnight as well. Southerly flow will follow the secondary cold front on Wednesday, which may drag a bit of moisture into the region, leading to a cloudy, at times drizzly day before Thanksgiving.
There is one last wave of moisture expected to slide through New England on Thanksgiving, but it is unlikely that there will be lingering effects. The day will be increasingly sunny, and quite pleasant by dinner time. Happy Thanksgiving!
Tomorrow – Rain, particularly early, with lingering showers throughout, High 59, Low 48
Thanksgiving – Some drizzle early then clearing and colder, High 55, Low 33

TWC: Tomorrow – Chance of a morning shower. Overcast. High 59, Low 48
Thanksgiving – Sunny along with a few clouds. High 55, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy with a couple of showers; wet weather can make for slow holiday travel High 61, Low 48
Thanksgiving – Sunny to partly cloudy, windy and cooler High 55, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of rain between 9am and 3pm. Patchy fog.  High 61, Low 47
Thanksgiving – Mostly sunny, (AM Rain) High 56, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog High 59, Lo 50
Thanksgiving – Sunny High 55, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 61, Low 47
Thanksgiving – Mostly sunny (early showers), High 54, Low 35

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast High 60, Low 50
Thanksgiving – Partly cloudy, High 56, Low 35

Rain will be light, regardless of what happens, for a lot of the forecast period. And temperatures will be on their way down, so the Turkey Day Touch Football game looks to be a good way to warm up. Radar showing rain moving in is below, and if you are looking to get really involved, here is a live camera from Providence.

Birmingham, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Between the early start to tornado season and the exposure to hurricane season, Alabama is one of the more interesting places to forecast the weather. Undoubtedly, this is why James Spann, one of the more famous TV weatherpeople has built such a respected reputation, working in Birmingham. Perhaps we have an interesting forecast in our future?

At 1053PM, CT, Birmingham was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with overcast skies. There was weak ridging in the area tonight, helping to provide some stability, however a weakening disturbance over the Southern Plains is advancing to the east, and the attendant warm front runs through Tennessee. The rest of the energy will arrive in the late morning tomorrow, with light rain and an isolated rumble of thunder.
The back end of the energy lies well west of the precipitation that will begin tomorrow morning. Expect the coverage and intensity to pick up late tomorrow evening into Saturday morning. The tailing cold front will stall across central Alabama, leading to an ongoing threat of light rain to start the weekend. Fortunately, there is an area of surface high pressure behind the wave moving in overnight tonight, and the latter half of the weekend will be clearer.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 72, Low 58
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a smattering of light rain, High 75, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 70, Low 58
Saturday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Thunder possible. High 77, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy with a heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 72, Low 60
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and warm High 75, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 59
Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 72, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 70, Low 63
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then sunny in the afternoon. High 74, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and a chance of storms, High 72, Low 59
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 76, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 72, Low 58
Saturday – Light rain showers, High 77, Low 55

I think the response to the boundaries and clouds associated with this fairly quick moving system could really play havoc with this forecast. I should note that the low temperatures on Saturday are expected to occur at midnight leading to Sunday. The radar is showing off some showers, but few are reaching the ground….. yet.

Santa Cruz, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are dangerously close to the weekend. It’s been a soggy week on the West Coast. Will that trend continue?

At 1253PM, PT, Santa Cruz was seeing fair skies with a temperature of 68 degrees. Strong low pressure extended a cool front as far south as about Eureka. There is a lingering marine layer along the coast, but which hasn’t stuck within the bays of the California coast, including Monterey Bay, however an uncharacteristically high dew point suggests that some fog will return overnight.
The boundary won’t ever reach Santa Cruz before high pressure begins to build back in. This means that if there is leftover low clouds and fog in the area, it won’t be scrubbed out. Afternoons should still be sunny and mild, even with some haze in the morning.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing, High 69, Low 53
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 70, Low 52
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 74, low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, sunny and pleasant High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 74, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny, High 74, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.  High 67, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. High 69, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 74, low 52

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny High 73, Low 50

Clouds are lurking off shore. Will they cause problems? No, probably not, but maybe a bit of fog in the morning.