Davenport, Iowa

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I had assumed that Davenport was named as such because it is on the Mississippi River, and a port. Nope, just named after a guy named Davenport.

At 1052AM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. It was fairly breezy across the area, especially just above the surface. This is because of the leading edge of lee troughing extending all the way into the Dakotas, and brisk southerlies across the Hawkeye State.
The jet is zonal and well into Canada, indicating a dry, sunny and warm couple of days ahead. The high pressure centered over the Great Lakes is going to help squash the tropical features in the western Atlantic away from the coast and towards the central Atlantic.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 55
Monday – Sunny, High 87, Low 55

TWC – Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 88, Low 57
Monday – Mainly sunny High 90, Low 57

AW – Tomorrow – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 87, Low 57
Monday – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 88, Low 55

NWS – Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 59
Monday – Sunny, High 88, Low 59

WB – Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 58
Monday – Sunny, High 88, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 59
Monday – Sunny, High 88, Low 59

CL: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 57
Monday – Sunny, High 88, Low 57

That was a pretty easy forecast. With temperatures potentially reaching the 90s, I would say this qualifies as pretty toasty for late September. Satellite shows a bit of scud, stirred up the brisk winds, but there isn’t much moisture to make for a lot of clouds.

Denver, Colorado

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We’ve managed a few trips to Colorado recently. The weather is always interesting there, so I have no complaints. How does the end of the week look in the Mile High City?

At 253PM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees and partly cloudy skies. A westerly flow in the Rockies was producing a few showers in the higher terrain, but a dew point of 38 dried everything out before it could reach the ground in town. High pressure is moving southward along the Front Range, and should lead to a fairly decent time on Friday.
An area of low pressure in the Great Lakes is tailing a cold front into the southern part of the state, where a few showers are found. A jet trough will dive through the Prairies over the next couple of days, with a brisk westerly flow across the Rockies into the trough. This will lead to locally warm flow and an inversion at the surface. This could make Saturday a bit on the grey/grimy side.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 68, Low 54
Saturday – Hazy and smoky, but warmer, High 79, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 72, Low 56
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 82, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with sun and areas of high clouds High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Mainly cloudy High 81, Low 49

NWS- Partly sunny High 73, Low 54
Saturday – A slight chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Increasing clouds, High 80, Low 50

WB – Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 73, Low 61
Saturday – Mostly sunny with a 10 percent chance of showers. High 81, Low 54

WN – Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 80, Low 50

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 70, Low 52
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 49

Well, this precipitation forecast got more interesting than I anticipated. It will be interesting to see how it turns out. I expect a lot of it will revolve around drizzle within the mist in the early mornings, rather than the stuff we see in the Plains tonight.

It was too good to be true

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It seemed like a little bit cooler air was going to settle in early to southwestern Oklahoma. There was a chance for a little bit of rain over the holiday weekend, but it was still plenty warm. Saturday was he winning day in Lawton, with dry skies and a cooler temperature that came on Sunday. There wsan’t much rain, just a drizzle, and it came with temperatures that were back up in the upper 80s. It’s what you should expect in Lawton, but it’s still disappointing when the forecast was for something a bit cooler. Accuweather had the warmest forecast and earned victory for the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 81, Low 70
Sunday – .02″ of rain, High 88, Low 69

Grade: A-C

Atlantic City, New Jersey

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

After bouncing around the middle of the country recently, we will now head to the East Coast, where we will probably see things like “the Gulf Stream” mentioned a few times.

At 454PM, ET, Atlantic City was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. There is a thatch of clouds over Delaware Bay, associated with an upper level trough. There is a jet streak over the western Atlantic, but surface high pressure is keeping things rain free in the mid-Atlantic.
There is a bit of moisture in the middle of the country that will struggle to ascend the Appalachians. Low pressure following the Gulf Stream is moving at the eastern periphery of coler air, and the northerly flow in New Jersey will keep the region unseasonably cool.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 73, Low 60
Tuesday – Partly cloudy High 74, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and windy; a nice afternoon for outdoor activities High 74, Low 62
Tuesday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 64
Tuesday – Sunny, High 75, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 64
Tuesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 64
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 63

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 73, Low 59
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 59

Looks like south Jersey is in for a good Labor Day. Clouds entering the area are high, and not as threatening as they might look.

Lawton, Oklahoma

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Lawton is home to Fort Sill, which also gives us most of the population. The town is in the southwest part of the state, which leaves it in a dryer patch of land this late in the summer.

At 353PM, CT, Lawton was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 77 degrees. Dew points were also in the upper 60s, making for a rather soupy afternoon. The tail of a cool front was triggering some thunderstorms in Texas, and westerly flow over the Rockies was contributing to a particularly vigorous dry line, leading to severe weather in the Colorado Plains. All the while, an upper level ridge is keeping Oklahoma dry, if a bit on the cloudy side.
As the upper level jet streak shifts further to the east, it will weaken greatly. The dry line will press east as well, but without as much momentum. The threat of showers and storms will arrive in southern Oklahoma on Sunday morning. The associated boundary will continue to weaken, and there won’t be any organized shower activity. As the afternoon wears on, the threat will lessen as the former dry line mixes out. The extra clouds will keep temperatures moderated.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 69
Sunday – Scattered showers, mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late High 80, Low 68
Sunday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 85, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with a shower in places; cloudy in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon High 81, Low 69
Sunday – Humid with sun and some clouds; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 86, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68
Sunday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 83, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms High 78, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning then a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 79, Low 69

WN – Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 80, Low 64
Sunday – Mostly cloudy scattered showers and chance of storms, High 83, Low 68

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 79, Low 67
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 84, Low 69

It looks like a pretty good holiday weekend is coming up for southwest Oklahoma. Spots of rain, but temperatures are manageable. Not so bad on satellite this afternoon.

Fort Collins, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Having some minor (I hope) server issues today at Victoria-Weather HQ. That shouldn’t change the weather in Fort Collins, though, right? What can we expect in Northern Colorado this weekend?

At 956AM, MT, Fort Collins was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies and a brisk north wind. There is a bit of shower activity across northern Colorado is associated with a cold front appended to an area of low pressure in western Ontario. A leading trough has switched winds to northerly across Fort Collins, but the boundary remained just to the north in southern Wyoming. Shower activity is largely found in the mountains west of Fort Collins and Cheyenne, though there will be some light activity as the day wears on, lasting into the morning tomorrow.
As the area of low pressure moves on to the east, high pressure will build in the Plains. In the southwest, warm air will begin to build again, and a laminar flow over the Rockies will lead to a down-slope and lee troughing in the Colorado flatlands. The contrast in air mass will lead to some ridge-riding thunderstorms in eastern Colorado by Sunday, but guidance and intuition suggest that the bulk of the activity will be south of the Palmer Divide, leaving Fort Collins mostly unbothered, but late in the period some activity could press into the area.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers, especially early, High 74, Low 60
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated thunder late High 80, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy skies late High 78, Low 61
Sunday – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 75, low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds breaking for some sun with a thunderstorm in one or two spots High 76, Low 60
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon High 76, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 75, low 59
Sunday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 79, low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning then a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 72, Low 60
Sunday – Thunderstorms likely. High 74, low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 75, low 59
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light showers and scattered storms, High 79, Low 58

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 76, Low 60
Sunday – Thunderstorm, high 78, low 56

Count me in the “not likely” camp on Sunday thunderstorms. Everything right now just looks like it will show up too far to the south. Not today though, here is radar imagery, with showers heading in from Wyoming.

Midland, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Midland, despite it’s name, is not really in the middle of anything, except, perhaps “nowhere”. Fairly isolated in west Texas, save for a proximity to Odessa. Let’s see if they can look forward to anything more than dust.

At 353PM, CT, Midland was reporting a temperature of 96 degrees with fair skies. Midland was northwest of the dry line, with a dew point in the upper 50s, compared to the dew point in Brownwood and Stephenville, which sat in the 70s. A local eddy was still producing some showers behind the primary dry line, notably over the southeastern corner of New Mexico.
The trough related showers and storms over the High Plains will become less active as a storm system in the Canadian Prairie moves towards the northern Great Lakes. Onshore flow from the Gulf will still be present, and showers will be likely over south Texas, but the end of the work week should be dry in Midland.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 100, Low 74
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 100, Low 74
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine, High 97, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, hot with sunshine mixing with some clouds; High 100, Low 75
Friday – Breezy and very warm with periods of clouds and sunshine High 99, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 74
Friday – Sunny, High 97, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 76
Friday – Sunny, High 94, Low 77

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 74
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 76

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 74
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 97, Low 75

Those showers in New Mexico dissipated before I took the image of the satellite. But storms in Texas are still roaring tonight, not threatening Midland at all.

Pine Bluff, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our forecast today is taking us to central Arkansas. It’s not quite the Ozarks, not quite the Mississippi Valley, it’s Pine Bluff!

At 753PM, CT, Pine Bluff was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees, with dew points in the low 70s. The high dew points were not enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms across the region, with a weak upper ridge nosing into the region, suppressing flow in any direction.
Guidance is fairly consistent about lee troughing emerging as the week draws to an end. If anything, this will mean even more humidity, this time from the Gulf, rather than augmented by the woods of the Ozarks, and at all levels. While precipitation isn’t expected, there is an increased level of clouds by Friday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, high 91, Low 70
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 96, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine. High 97, Low 71
Friday – Sunshine. High 98, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 96, Low 70
Friday – Plenty of sunshine High 96. Los 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 96, Low 71
Friday – Sunny and hot,  High 97, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 94, Low 75
Friday – Sunny. High 92, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 71
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 96, Low 71
Friday – Sunny, High 98, Low 72

It looks fairly quiet on radar over Arkansas. Those storms aren’t going to be working north any time soon.

San Luis Obispo, California

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We are on our way to Point Conception, north of LA for this forecast. There were tsunami advisories south of SLO today, which is not something I have seen on an NWS alert map in the past.

At 656PM, PT, San Luis Obispo was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. There was a brisk onshore flow, keeping things comfortable west of the Coastal Range, though it was in the mid-90s on the other side of the mountains.
There is a jet streak over central California ensuring onshore flow will be maintained with some vigor, however of greater note is the low clouds lurking offshore. Point Conception is prime territory for morning low clouds and fog, and each of the next to days should feel the impact of the Marine Layer.
Tomorrow – morning clouds and fog, High 76, Low 55
Friday – Morning clouds, clearing, High 76, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 74, Low 54
Friday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 75, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to sun High 77, Low 56
Friday – Mostly sunny and nice High 78, Lo 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing,  High 75, Low 55
Friday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 76, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog in the morning then sunny. High 81, Low 58
Friday – Low clouds and fog in the morning then sunny. High 80, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 55
Friday – Partly Cloudy, High 76, Low 55

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 56
Friday – Sunny, High 74, Low 58

Wow, one degree different from the NWS forecast. We’ll all feel pretty silly if we are a ways off. Satellite shows the lingering clouds offshore.

Danville, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Danville lies along the Indiana border, south of Chicago, and deep inside of corn sweat country. Are you ready to swelter?

At 355PM, CT, Danville was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. Importantly, dewpoints were in the low to mid 70s across the regions, making things even more uncomfortable. Lower level forcing is driving a bit of surface development, which is initiating in the High Plains. The moisture that crops up here will then track along the southern edge of a ridge that has emerged over the north central part of the US. There is, as a result, a marginal risk of severe weather for the area tomorrow. There is weak forcing but unstable air. Things may unfold quickly.
If things proceed as current longer range models indicate, storms will arrive in Danville and linger into the overnight hours, before exiting town in the predawn of Thursday. If this is another derecho, as have been frequent of late, don’t be surprised if the onset is earlier than currently indicated. Fortunately, the ridge is going to continue to squash further south. It isn’t necessarily enjoying the benefit of cold air, but the air is dryer, and Thursday afternoon, at the very least, will be pleasant.
Tomorrow – Rain in the afternoon, with strong thunderstorms possible overnight, High 92, Low 72
Thursday – Early morning thunderstorms, with gusty winds, then much more pleasant, High 79, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. A stray thunderstorm is possible High 91, Low 70
Thursday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late.  High 75, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a couple of heavy thunderstorms in the afternoon; storms can bring flash flooding and damaging winds High 89, Low 70
Thursday – Periods of rain and a thunderstorm in the morning; mostly cloudy and humid; heavy downpours can reduce visibility and cause ponding on streets and highways High 74, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. High 89, Low 72
Thursday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. High 77, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 93, Low 74
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. High 76, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 89, Low 72
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of storms, High 78, Low 65

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 91, Low 71
Thursday – Thunderstorm, High 76, Low 63

Clearly, whatever happens in Danville this week is going to have a real impact. Expect better sleeping this later this week, central Illinois. Satellite with a few clouds by St. Louis before the sun goes down.