Santa Cruz, California

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We are dangerously close to the weekend. It’s been a soggy week on the West Coast. Will that trend continue?

At 1253PM, PT, Santa Cruz was seeing fair skies with a temperature of 68 degrees. Strong low pressure extended a cool front as far south as about Eureka. There is a lingering marine layer along the coast, but which hasn’t stuck within the bays of the California coast, including Monterey Bay, however an uncharacteristically high dew point suggests that some fog will return overnight.
The boundary won’t ever reach Santa Cruz before high pressure begins to build back in. This means that if there is leftover low clouds and fog in the area, it won’t be scrubbed out. Afternoons should still be sunny and mild, even with some haze in the morning.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing, High 69, Low 53
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 70, Low 52
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 74, low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, sunny and pleasant High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 74, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny, High 74, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.  High 67, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. High 69, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 74, low 52

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny High 73, Low 50

Clouds are lurking off shore. Will they cause problems? No, probably not, but maybe a bit of fog in the morning.

Greeley, Colorado

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With the newly advertised atmospheric river coming for the Pacific Northwest, there stands to be a bit more interesting weather eventually trickling into the High Plains of Colorado. But how soon?

At 856PM, MT, Greeley was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 43 degrees. Greeley was a pit on the temperature map, as Fort Collins to the west and Fort Morgan to the east were both still in the 50s, while Greeley aligned more with Cheyenne and Laramie, where it had tarted to cool down. Flow is fairly calm, however there is a stream of high clouds showing up south of Denver.
The jet fostering low pressure will eventually emerge in the central Rockies, and dig into the high pressure in the Plains. Low pressure will begin to organize in Montana, drawing more warm, dry air through Greeley. With low pressure organizing so far north, there is no threat for rain in the Greeley area.
Tomorrow – Fair skies, High 67, Low 30
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 31
Thursday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 68, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and not as warm but pleasant High 66, Low 31
Thursday – Mostly sunny and windy High 69, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 65, Low 32
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 38
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 65, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 35
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 36

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 31
Thursday – Partly cloudy High 68, Low 30

It’s such a wildcard this time of year in the High Plains and Front Range. The forecasts are all pretty similar, which means we are all going to be wrong in the same way. Satellite shows a few clouds tonight, generally to the south.

Burlington, North Carolina

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Burlington started its life called “Company Shops” because the railroads started the town as a spot to service trains in North Carolina. As railroads merged and the trains that used Company Shops put their work elsewhere, residents decided to rename the town. They picked the name “Burlington”…. naming the town after a passing train.

At 1059PM, ET, Burlington was reporting rain and low overcast. The temperature was 52 degrees. In the wake of a coastal feature that brought the region rain yesterday, another rain maker is moving out of the Tennessee Valley tonight. In this case, the area of low pressure is starting to move to the north, and an occluded cold front will be responsible for the rain overnight tonight.
Because of the occlusion, the post-frontal cooldown will not be dramatic. The rain will end through the late morning, with drier air and a bit of sunshine then filtering back into the picture. High pressure will build in, giving the region a much needed break from the rain.
Tomorrow – Rain early, then clearing, High 62, Low 48
Friday – Sunny, High 58, low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon (AM Rain) High 62, Low 49
Friday – Sunny skies. High 62, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, clouds breaking for some sun (AM Rain) High 62, Low 49
Friday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, plenty of sun; cool for trick-or-treating High 60, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, (AM rain) High 62, Low 49
Friday – Sunny, High 62, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning.  High 62, Low 49
Friday – Sunny.  High 59, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (early rain) High 62, Low 49
Friday – Sunny, High 62, Low 42

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 62, low 48
Friday – Sunny, High 61, Low 42

Well, if the high tomorrow isn’t 62 degrees, I think I’m going to have to talk to someone. Pretty rainy tonight, but I did forget that Friday is Halloween, and that looks like a good night for Trick or Treating.

Durham, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Durham is one of the three members of the “Research Triangle” in eastern North Carolina, and is famous also for being the home of Duke University, who have historically had a strong basketball program.

At 815PM, ET, Durham was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with rain. There was an area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina, and to say the least, it has been a robust rain producer, and almost the entire state east of the mountains was experiencing rain this evening. The feature is associated with a robust seasonal jet stream, and will shift into the north Atlantic, where it will help to establish a steering mechanism to keep Hurricane Melissa away from the US mainland.
The pattern across the US is quite active this week. While rain will diminish by late on Tuesday, but a deeper digging trough with it’s own area of surface low pressure will be sliding through the southern US. By Wednesday, the stalled boundary associated with the low in the Atlantic will link with the rising warm front, bringing rain back into the forecast for the morning. Wednesday will see temperatures pop a bit, with some thunderstorms coming in after sunset.
Tomorrow – Showers through the day, High 50, Low 47
Wednesday – Rain early, then some thunder late, High 58, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain, High 51, Low 48
Wednesday – Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. High 56, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and cool with rain High 51, Low 46
Wednesday – Occasional rain and drizzle in the morning followed by periods of rain and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 57, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. High 52, Low 47
Wednesday – Rain likely before 8am, then showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Rain. High 53, Low 48
Wednesday – Rain likely with areas of drizzle in the morning then showers likely in the afternoon High 55, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 52, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with rain likely, High 58, Low 47

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 51, Low 47
Wednesday – Rain Showers, High 55, Low 47

Sorry, Durham. Wish I had better news for you. Look at all this rain!

Elkhart, Indiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are several medium sized towns in northern Indiana, even as you get east of Chicagoland. We have four along the I-80/90 corridor in our forecast pool, Michigan City, South Bend, Goshen and today’s site, Elkhart.

-At 1215PM, ET, Elkhart was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with light rain. Rain was more widespread in Michigan, and just nosing into northern Indiana, with showers reported in South Bend, but not Goshen. This is associated with a broad area of low pressure in western Quebec, drifting to the north. The lingering shower activity will continue through the day as the system breaks down, and it will remain cool through the day.
A narrow ridge is going to be pushing the light rain out of the region, and will anchor in place for the remainder of the work week. The ridge will provide a bit of a warm up, but not dramatic. The jet associated with the upper level ridge will be local, which will lead to some clouds at the mid and upper levels, along with some persistent low clouds associated with todays event. It will be a bit warmer, with a little bit of sun on Friday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 49, Low 44
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 51, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High 49, Low 42
Friday – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 52, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds with a couple of showers; breezy and chilly High 48, low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny High 51, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 51, low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny (Rain through 2am), High 54, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy through 4 pm then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. High 46, Low 42
Friday – Partly cloudy through 4 pm then clearing (Rain through 2am). High 51, Low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light showers likely, High 50, Low 43
Friday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 54, Low 38

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain Showers, High 47, Low 40
Friday – Light rain showers, High 50, low 37

I’m not sure why so many of my compatriots are calling for rain in Elkhart. I would be surprised if it lasts the day, let alone the week. Here, take a look.

Dover, Delaware

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There isn’t a lot too Delaware, but given the location along the coast, it can sure serve up some interesting times.

At 315PM, ET, Dover was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with overcast skies. High pressure remains in control this afternoon in the Delmarva, however a deep cutting trough swinging out of the Great lakes towards an already unsettled region in the Bight of Georgia is going to bring about some significant changes for the weekend.
The developing low, which may ultimately get a name from the NHC, but even if it doesn’t, it should be a very early season Nor’Easter for the coast. The initial spots of rain will arrive in Dover tomorrow morning, with the threat steadily increasing through the day. The strongest band of heavy rain projects to arrive on Sunday morning. This will likely be accompanied by some blustery winds and make for a wholly uncomfortable morning. The heavy rain will begin to taper in the early afternoon, but more light rain will continue through the remainder of the day.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, High 72, Low 58
Sunday – Rain with wind, tapering a bit in the evening, High 67, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 71, Low 55
Sunday – Rain and wind. High 66, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with occasional rain and drizzle high 70, Low 57
Sunday – Rain and wind from tropical rainstorm; flooding in poor drainage areas; stronger wind and worse flooding at the beaches High 65, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 55
Sunday – Rain, High 66, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. High 69, Low 56
Sunday – Rain windy .High 67, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 70, Low 54
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 67, low 61

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers High 69, low 58
Sunday – Light rain showers High 67, Low 60

Yuck. That’s going to be particularly nasty on Sunday. Don’t be surprised if there is a rumble or two with the heavy rain on Sunday. Looks good right now in the interior east!

Portland, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Ooh boy, need to be careful with my keywords on this one. You haven’t heard about Portland in the news lately, have you?

At 353PM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. The Pacific Northwest was enjoying a nice, warm and clear stretch to begin the week, which was allowing temperatures to be warm, though not unbearable.
A jet trough is sliding southeasterly along the British Columbian coast, which may bring about a few more upper level clouds as well as a refreshing ocean flow. Eventually, there will be some clouds and drizzle as a result, but not before our forecast period expires.
Tomorrow – Isolated clouds, High 77, Low 50
Wednesday – Increasingly cloudy and cooler, High 63, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 64, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny, nice and warm High 78, Low 50
Wednesday – Partly sunny and cooler High 64, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 53
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 77, Low 54
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 62, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 76, Low 53
Wednesday – Partly sunny with showers. High 62, Low 49

CLI: Tomorrow- Sunny, High 78, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy High 65, Low 48

Nice weather out there on the West Coast.

Gulfport, Mississippi

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Unlike Davenport, Gulfport IS a port, and that is how it got its name.

At 453PM, Central Time, Gulfport was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 88 degrees. With multiple tropical features in the western Atlantic, the tropical energy was redirected away from the Gulf, and the Gulf Coast was in the midst of a nice, clear stretch of autumn weather.
With nothing driving traffic in the immediate region, eyes turn to Humberto and Imelda, which are going to dance together before merging through the middle of the week. As the pair of storms move off to the Atlantic, a bit of a sea breeze will return, with some afternoon storms coming back on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, isolated storms late, High 90, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 90, Low 71
Tuesday- Sunshine and some clouds. High 90, Lo 70

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 91. Low 70
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and remaining warm High 91, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 71
Tuesday – Sunny, High 88, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 86, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny.  High 88, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 71

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 71
Tuesday – Sunny, High 89, Low 70

It’s not often that I am on the island with precipitation in the forecast. Also, The Weather Channel got a little bit of a refresh, which is almost as clean as this satellite image.

Davenport, Iowa

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I had assumed that Davenport was named as such because it is on the Mississippi River, and a port. Nope, just named after a guy named Davenport.

At 1052AM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. It was fairly breezy across the area, especially just above the surface. This is because of the leading edge of lee troughing extending all the way into the Dakotas, and brisk southerlies across the Hawkeye State.
The jet is zonal and well into Canada, indicating a dry, sunny and warm couple of days ahead. The high pressure centered over the Great Lakes is going to help squash the tropical features in the western Atlantic away from the coast and towards the central Atlantic.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 55
Monday – Sunny, High 87, Low 55

TWC – Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 88, Low 57
Monday – Mainly sunny High 90, Low 57

AW – Tomorrow – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 87, Low 57
Monday – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 88, Low 55

NWS – Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 59
Monday – Sunny, High 88, Low 59

WB – Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 58
Monday – Sunny, High 88, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 59
Monday – Sunny, High 88, Low 59

CL: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 57
Monday – Sunny, High 88, Low 57

That was a pretty easy forecast. With temperatures potentially reaching the 90s, I would say this qualifies as pretty toasty for late September. Satellite shows a bit of scud, stirred up the brisk winds, but there isn’t much moisture to make for a lot of clouds.

Denver, Colorado

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We’ve managed a few trips to Colorado recently. The weather is always interesting there, so I have no complaints. How does the end of the week look in the Mile High City?

At 253PM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees and partly cloudy skies. A westerly flow in the Rockies was producing a few showers in the higher terrain, but a dew point of 38 dried everything out before it could reach the ground in town. High pressure is moving southward along the Front Range, and should lead to a fairly decent time on Friday.
An area of low pressure in the Great Lakes is tailing a cold front into the southern part of the state, where a few showers are found. A jet trough will dive through the Prairies over the next couple of days, with a brisk westerly flow across the Rockies into the trough. This will lead to locally warm flow and an inversion at the surface. This could make Saturday a bit on the grey/grimy side.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 68, Low 54
Saturday – Hazy and smoky, but warmer, High 79, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 72, Low 56
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 82, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with sun and areas of high clouds High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Mainly cloudy High 81, Low 49

NWS- Partly sunny High 73, Low 54
Saturday – A slight chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Increasing clouds, High 80, Low 50

WB – Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 73, Low 61
Saturday – Mostly sunny with a 10 percent chance of showers. High 81, Low 54

WN – Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 80, Low 50

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 70, Low 52
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 49

Well, this precipitation forecast got more interesting than I anticipated. It will be interesting to see how it turns out. I expect a lot of it will revolve around drizzle within the mist in the early mornings, rather than the stuff we see in the Plains tonight.