We had so many forecasts this month, every outlet had at least a share of a victory. Another way to look at it is that there was good skill across the board, but that may not be 100% the truth. The victory ultimately went to an outlet that was good even when they weren’t the best, which couldn’t be said for everyone. The Weather Channel narrowly surpassed WeatherNation to gain the victory for the month. At least everyone got to feel the warmth of a victory one time in September.
Last week, the combination of Nicholas and low pressure in the Great Lakes finally started moving out of the country (to be replaced this week, of course) and brought a quick burst of cool, autumnal air to our forecast spot in Greenville, South Carolina. Sure, it rained on Wednesday, but the day after was heavenly. So too were the forecast. With some action to contend with, the scores on these forecasts were really quite good. Accuweather ended up claiming the win. Actuals: Wednesday, 9/22 – .31 inches of rain, High 80, Low 62 Thursday – High 75, Low 54
We’ve made it to October. The leaves are changing, and the weather is cooling down. Pumpkin spice everything.
At 1154PM, ET, Roanoke was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 61 degrees. High pressure is parked over the mid-Atlantic, which is good news, because it is directing Hurricane Sam well away from land, and is going to lead to a very nice start to the weekend. There are two strong jet streaks over the continent, including one in the Canadian Maritimes and another from western Canada to the Canadian Prairies. Between, the flow aloft is contorted into a trough over the Upper Midwest, but is not partnered with vigorous flow. It is reflected by a fairly weak system moving from the Upper Midwest towards the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday. Scattered showers over the Mississippi Valley will struggle to by pass the Appalachians. The weakening low will drift into the eastern Great Lakes, but the mountains and the ridge will keep Roanoke dry through the weekend. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 52 Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 59
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. HIgh 84, Low 54 Sunday – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 83, Low 61
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; a beautiful start to the weekend High 83, Low 54 Sunday – Some sun, then turning cloudy High 83, Low 62
NWS: Sunny, High 83, Low 55 Sunday – A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 82, Low 60
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 57 Sunday – Mostly sunny, a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 80, Low 64
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 56 Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 60
FIO: Tomorrow -Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 53 Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 59
It’s really interesting to see the disparity in this forecast from outlet to outlet. Rain just doesn’t seem likely to me. I mean, look at this scene and try to tell me it should rain here.
Just as summer turned to fall in Ohio, we forecast for Columbus. Wet weather was on it’s way into the Buckeye State, and was expected to bring a change to the pattern in central Ohio. Joke was on us, though, as that change came a day early. With rain and clouds, perhaps a bit thicker than expected, that change came a day early. Highs only reached 73 last Tuesday, thought they did get even cooler by mid week. All forecasters came through with a pretty workable forecast, with Weatherbug narrowly surpassing the rest. Actuals: Monday – .01 inches of light rain, High 81, Low 71 Tuesday – .24 inches of rain, High 73, Low 67
