Tag Archives: Wenatchee

Wenatchee, Washington

Hey guys! Let’s go on out to Washington for a forecast to get the week started.

At 955PM, PT, Wenatchee was reporting a temperature of 29 with overcast skies. They found themselves between two lingering areas of precipitation, with snow falling heavily in the Cascades, and a bit lighter to the east in the Valleys of eastern Washington. A boundary was a bit more virulent than the typical discharge of energy from a strong Gulf of Alaska low, but as with most features becoming dissociated from the primary area of low pressure, it is diminishing rapidly. 
The low is not getting any weaker, however, and it will rotate from the Alaska Peninsula east towards the Kenai, while a heavy slug of moisture slides down the Alaska Panhandle towards the British Columbian coast and eventually to Washington before noon on Tuesday. A sharp upper level trough will aid in the maintenance of the moisture as it slams into eastern Washington. More snow is possible through the afternoon with the arrival of this moisture in Wenatchee.
Tomorrow – A few flurries early, High 39, Low 26
Tuesday – Afternoon rain and snow, High 35, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals.  High 37, Low 20
Tuesday – Rain and snow in the morning turning to rain in the afternoon. High 35, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy High 36, Low 28
Tuesday – Considerable cloudiness, a bit of snow, accumulating a coating to an inch High 36, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (early mix), High 40, Low 30
Tuesday – Snow before 11am, then rain and snow between 11am and noon, then rain after noon. High 39, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 37, Low 32
Tuesday – Snow likely. Light snow accumulation, High 36, Low 32

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (early snow) High 40, Low 30
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with light wintry mix, High 39, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until morning. High 42, Low 30
Tuesday – Snow (< 1 in.) in the morning. High 41, Low 31

I’m running on the cool side, which points more towards model guidance. We’ll see if that pays dividends. IT would certainly mean more snow. Here is the radar, with only the flurries from Ephrata eastwards really showing up.

Wenatchee, Washington to Lewiston, Idaho

Today we have a pretty short road trip, only 227 miles from the lee side of the Cascades to just over the Snake River into Idaho. Let’s see what it’ll be like for our jaunt of a few hours.

The Cascades continue to get some higher elevation snows due to a warm front that’s pushing onshore from central BC down to Washington. Luckily, the only thing affecting Wenatchee is just some lingering fog and overcast skies. Cloudy conditions are expected to last throughout the day as we head southeastward and the fog should burn off by midday. That’s about the only trouble conditions we’ll have as temperatures lift into the upper 40s for a high as we pull into Lewiston.

Wenatchee, Washington to Mobile, Alabama

Five days is the amount of time it will take us to get from the Cascades to the Gulf Coast. It’s not a trip with a nice north to south interstate to spend all of our time on, so there are will be quite a few twists and turns. The two towns are 2652 miles apart, and despite all the twists and turns, we will be able to move at a pace of 63.3mph. The first days of this cross country adventure will have a goal distance of about 506 miles. There is a lot of driving ahead of us, so I vote that we get cracking on it.

Wenatchee will be, and usually is, pretty nice tomorrow as we depart. High pressure and a summery feel will be in the air as we make our way through Washington and Oregon, but unfortunately, we have an upper level trough camped out in the Great Basin. Today, most of hte moisture is hung up in the Sierras, but by the time we reach Idaho, some shower activity will be kicked north. Expect the chance for rain from Nampa to Bliss, which is between Mountain Home and Twins Falls, and our destination for night one of this lengthy excursion.

The upper level wave is going to be moving quick enough that it will be out of the mountains before we are. There is a decent chance that we don’t see any rain at all on Thursday, but it will become increasingly likely we will see clouds as we head deeper into the day, thanks to the turbulence generated by the wave and a little bit of old fashioned diurnal heating. I and about 75% sure we will be dry when we check in to Sinclair, Wyoming, which is just to the east of Rawlins.

Now here is where things get dicey. The lee trough is going to be active. Sure, it isn’t the classic set up for thunderstorms, and some model guidance is way to aggressive with precipitation, given where the air is being drawn from, but it’s looking like a good set up for Low Precipitation Supercells later this week in the plains. They are discrete cells, so there won’t be a ton rain everywhere in eastern Colorado, but if we do encounter a cell, we will likely see strong winds, might see some large hail, and at the very least, we will probably see a tornado chaser or two. LP supercells are always the big draw, because funnel clouds are so well framed, and there isn’t much for them to wreck in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Activity will really start to pop after about 4pm and will be most likely as we approach Kanorado on the Colorado-Kansas border, but there will be a chance for more isolated storms pretty much anywhere in Colorado. Oh, Wyoming will be fine. Kanorado is our Friday night destination.

Model guidance is still suggesting some showers and storms through western Texas even into Saturday morning. I ain’t buying it. Sure, there will be some debris clouds leftover from collapsed showers and storms, but I don’t think it will be stormy until after we have been driving for a while, and even then, it will be pretty scattered, mostly as we head south from Salina to Wichita. After that, we will free and clear through northern Oklahoma. We’ll shut it down for the day in Tulsa.

The low is going to meekly head into Canada, but before it does that, it will start to initiate a southeasterly flow off of the Gulf through Mobile and the southeast. This will mean it will be steamy when we arrive, and rather foggy and cloudy in the morning before we get there. Don’t be dissapointed that will likely be pretty murky when we wake up at our destination on Memorial Day. Sunday, though, will be a great day for driving.


The forecast for Wenatchee was particularly awful

There was a lot made of the forecast and response to a snow storm in the southeastern United States. I think at this point, the following conclusions can be made: The forecast right, the communication was poor and the response and preparation was flat out poor. In Wenatchee, we were able to see a bad forecast from the outset. Temperatures were generally much too warm, especially on Thursday, where the closest outlet was The Weather Chanel at 6 degrees off. Only one outlet (Victoria-Weather) actually picked the right precipitation forecast (which was, a little bit both Thursday and Friday). Other than that, though, this forecast was white hot garbage all the way around. I thought there was something wrong with the data I was using. There was, as Weather Underground, used for verification, didn’t matched the NWS climate data. I plugged in the climate data, and the forecast still sucked. I wish there was better news. Some way to welcome Weather Nation, right? The NWS had the least terrible forecast.
Actuals: Thursday, .07 inches of precipitation, High 30, Low 21
Friday – Trace of precip, High 38, Low 29

Grade: D

Wenatchee, Washington to Denver, Colorado

Well, if this isn’t an appropriate trek. It’s not Seattle to Denver, but this Wenatchee to Denver trip is a pretty close approximation of a trek between this year’s Super Bowl competitors. This trip is going to take a long two days, covering 1262 miles. If the weather holds, we will maintain a pace of 68.9mph. That’s pretty good. That kind of pace means 551 miles on Friday, with the rest on Saturday, just in time to watch the big game.

Flow will continue to be westerly off of the Pacific even as an area of low pressure dives south towards Colorado. There won’t be much going on in the valleys, except for clouds and fog, but as we ascend the mountains of the northern Rockies, we will have chances for falling snow on I-90. This will be a problem all day on Friday, because there won’t be any clearing and there are a lot of mountains in Washington, Idaho and western Montana. We will call it a day in Manhattan, Montana. I assume it’s just like the one in New York.

Flurries will become more widespread as cold air sinks south. Even as we get away from the mountains in Montana and the Front Range of Wyoming and Colorado, snow showers will be possible. There won’t be a well organized system producing this activity, so we won’t be contending with gusty winds or a blizzard or anything like that, but the constantly refreshed coating on the road will mean we should take it easy. The snow will become much lighter as we reach Cheyenne and continue to Denver but there will be a flurry in the forecast for when we arrive in Bronco country.

Wenatchee, Washington

The forecast machine is taking us to the opposite end of the country from where the particularly zany weather has been happening. Let’s not ignore the Pacific Northwest, though, where the weather is liable to be just as zany.

At 1255PM, PT, Wenatchee was reporting a temperature of 30 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Thick clouds have ensconced the Yakima Valley and areas east of the Wenatchee Mountains, but west of the Cascades, Puget Sound was experiencing widespread rain. An area of low pressure is moving into Washington at this hour. The Cascades are under a winter weather advisory, while the Columbia Range is generally under a winter storm warning.
Westerly flow across the state will ensure that most of the moisture will be forced aloft over Wenatchee, with a healthy layer of dry air directly above the city. Wenatchee will likely only be wrapped in high clouds until the evening as the energy is catapulted over town. The low will generally shift to the southeast, and with an upper level trough in the region, Arctic air will push in from the north. This cold air will have some snow at the leading edge, some of which will find its way into Wenatchee tomorrow evening, but will also bring some stability for Friday afternoon.
Tomorrow – Overcast with a few flurries, especially in late, High 39, Low 28
Friday – Overcast with some snow before sunrise, then clearing, High 32, Low 24

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy High 36, Low 29
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 33, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy most of the time High 39, Low 27
Friday – A snow shower in the morning; otherwise, rather cloudy High 36, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny High 41, Low 30
Friday – Partly sunny, High 37, Low 29

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning…then a chance of rain or snow in the afternoon. Snow level 1500 feet. High 41, Low 30
Friday – Mostly sunny. High 37, Low 28

Oh, well, there is some good consensus. Temperatures are more or less the same, but you couldn’t ask for a more widely varied precipitation forecast. Different days, different types. All over the place. Here is the radar, showing that precipitation is coming now only to the mountains.

Narrow Northwestern Victory

Tuesday turned out to be a very pleasant day for the fine citizens of Wenatchee, with the area staying dry throughout the day. A very brief shower, lasting all of 10 minutes, did bring a trace of rain to the area Wednesday morning before clearing out for the rest of the day. Reports said that the low on Wednesday was 56, but looking at the hourly reports, all I can see is a low of 64, so that’s what we’re going with. NWS takes home the narrow victory.

Tuesday: High 87, Low 65
Wednesday: Trace of precip in morning rain shower. High 89, Low 64.
Forecast Grade: B

Wenatchee, Washington to Louisville, Kentucky

On the road for a second day in a row, and once again, we plan to be out and about 4 days. The distance between the two cities is about 2240 miles, and our average speed in transit is going to be about 66.8mph, which will translate to 534 miles on days 1-3, and a little bit of spare change on Saturday.

We discussed a ridge that has taken hold in the center of the country, but there is also a persistent trough in the Pacific Northwest that doesn’t want to seem to go away. A surface low in the northern Great Basin will begin to churn up some showers and storms and push it all north into the Northern Rockies. Essentially anywhere east of Coeur d’Alene, we can anticipate a chance for showers and storms, but the best threat will be in southwestern Montana, after we pass Missoula. and head towards Butte. Our day will end in Three Forks, Montana, which we will reach shortly before Bozeman.

Depending on who you believe, our drive on Thursday through South Dakota could be fairly rainy. I’m not entirely sold. I do imagine it should be fairly cloudy, however, thanks to some lee troughing and our upper level troughing. The ridge over the center of the country will do an excellent job of squashing that moisture back west, and I suspect our biggest problems will be cloudy skies, at least until we hit the Black Hills. Then it will be sunny skies as we head east into South Dakota. We will stop for the night at Wasta, South Dakota, which is really quite remote.

As our troughing mechanisms shift east, so to will our road trip. The forcing won’t be terribly impressive but with warm temperatures, we could certainly see thunderstorms triggered simply by the instability. The best chance for this will be over eastern South Dakota, but this far out, I’m not entirely sold. The day will end in Adair Iowa. We might see some isolated showers there as well, but the chances will be even less than when we were in South Dakota.

Not that I am expecting much by way of showers or storms on Saturday, but if there are any along our route, they will be confined, almost exclusively to Iowa and northern Illinois. After we have passed Peoria, it whould be clear sailing all the way to Louisville. It’s one of my favorite towns in the country, so enjoy it when you get there!

Cleveland, Ohio to Wenatchee, Washington

We are scheduled for a lengthy (4 day) trip to complete this Labor Day week. It will be 2283 miles between the two cities, and with our schedule, that means an average speed of 66.2mph, and a daily goal of 529.6 miles. Let’s head west as we begin September!

Our trip will get off to a wonderful beginning. There may be a few leftover clouds behinf a broad area of low pressure heading through New England, but there won’t be any rain, the temperatures will be quite wonderful, actually. We will make it all the way to Wisconsin on our first day of travel, and stay in Baraboo, which is north of Madison.

Our travels on Wednesday won’t be terribly difficult either, but we will cross both the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in our quest for Washington. While much of the day will be sunny, guidance is suggesting a chance for some isolated showers and storms around Sioux Falls as we pass through. It will be quick and should be painless, and we can expect dry, warm air again as we arrive in Reliance, South Dakota, which is in the south central part of the state.

The will be a lee trough developing east of the northern Rockies as we continue west, and for the time being that might actually help us out as it will suppress some of the convection that iwll flare up in the Black Hills. We still may see an isolated storm in western South Dakota, but the lee trough and a low moving into the Pacific Northwest will likely mean that we will navigate the region under clear skies. The day will end at Brumfield Road off of I-90 in Montana, which is before Reed Point, which is between Columbus and Big Timber, which are both in the middle of nowhere.

We will end the drive with a long trek on Friday from south central Montana to central Washington. A vast, rainy area of low pressure that will be perched over Washington on Thursday will lift north into Canada on Friday, which is great news for our travels. There may be a few remnant showers and storms over the Rockies in Montana, particularly in the Butte area, but more generally between Bozeman and Missoula. There will be a pretty favorable area of dry skies in northern Idaho and briefly in eastern Washington, before we are overtaken by showers and clouds (more clouds than showers. It won’t be sunny in Wenatchee when we arrive, but it will be the weekend.

Wenatchee, Washington

It’s not often that we do a forecast for before a populace has even awoken, but alas, that is what we are doing out in central Washington today. What does the forecast hold for Wenatchee?

At 555AM, PT, Wenatchee was reporting a west wind, clear skies and a temperature of 69 degrees. Wenatchee found itself wedged between two notable features, the seaonal monsoon over the Rockies, and an area of low pressure off the coast. This was resulting in a flow pattern directing southerly flow over the Wenatchee Valley, and west winds off the Cascades which, when taken in concert, resulted in balmy conditions for the city.
There is also southerly flow aloft, which will help guide a little moisture into the Valley, and the conflicting flow pattern will be able to touch off some high based showers and storms starting tomorrow. Today, convection will be confined to the Cascades, but don’t be surprised to see a little bit of rain Tuesday and Wednesday in Wenatchee.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 85, Low 64
Wednesday – Isolated shower threat continues, though slightly less than on Tuesday, High 88, Low 65.

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Showers High 86. Low 64
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy High 90, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 84, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly sunny (late storms), high 88, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 11am and 2pm. Partly sunny, High 85, Low 65
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 88, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the morning… then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 84, Low 64
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 87, Low 63

There is some disagreement on this forecast. I’m not completely sold on thunderstorms in Wenatchee, because it will by no means be a washout. That said, it is certainly a possibility. Here is the pre-dawn satellite image showing clouds already building over the Cascades.