Can’t beat the heat

Nothing is quite like the Texas sun beating down on you. Our forecasts didn’t quite anticipate how hot that sun could get when we forecast for Tyler, a town that looked like it was going to be in the aftermath of a cold front for a couple of days. Warming was anticipated, though not quite to the degree it was actually seen. Temperatures topped 90 on Friday, which is just a little too warm for sane people, and several degrees higher than what forecasts called for. The Weather Channel nabbed the top spot for the day, staying warm throughout their forecast period.
Actuals: Thursday, High 88, Low 58
Friday – High 91, Low 62

Grade: C

Oxnard, California to Tyler, Texas

It seems as though any trip through California usually takes a full week, so I am delighted that our trip this weekend is only a 3 day trek across the desert southwest. The pace of the 1,597 mile journey will be about 68mph, owing in large part to I-10. This will give us almost 544 miles a day, with a slightly shorter day to end things on Sunday. Memorial Weekend is a good time for a road trip.

DAY ONE (Friday)

Oxnard, California

It’s fire season already in southern California. Despite copious snow and fairly persistent rain patterns through the winter, it wasn’t enough to break the drought that has plagued the southwest for a long time now. While there is a fire near Laguna Beach, the route through southern California will be free of fire, though pollution is a bit high in the LA Basin. The better threat for new fires under the dry high pressure will be in northern Arizona towards the 4 Corners. Despite the drought, day 1 looks good to Tucson.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
Low pressure will start to develop in the High Plains of Colorado this weekend, which will likely fan the flames of the Black Fire in New Mexico, which will make the route from Deming, New Mexico to Pecos, Texas a little hazy. The fire may advance towards our route on Saturday, though it won’t come anywhere near it. The prevailing winds will only make life grayer, however. We will make it past Pecos to Pyote for the day.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
Low pressure is going to track to the northeast after developing in the Colorado prairies. It’s not going to be able to pull any moisture north, at least not enough that the atmosphere will destabilize in Texas, even as a weak cold front tries to move through. Eventually, it will turn into an inactive dry line west of Dallas-Fort Worth. This will pen any smoke from filtering eastward, but showers and storms are not in the forecast for the rest of the way to Tyler.

Tyler, Texas

Tyler, Texas

I am a man of science, which means that I am in constant search of evidence to support or challenge explanations of the way the world works. Study after study has shown that gun ownership merely provides the illusion of safety, but the presence actually puts households at greater risk. Empirically, guns are dangerous, and the tragedy in Uvalde yesterday underscores that again, but everyday, dozens of people die or are injured by guns, accidentally, purposefully or in self inflicted acts. Places where gun casualties do not occur are places where guns are not available. That is the only variable.

Now, to another part of Texas for the forecast.

At 1153AM, PM, Tyler was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 73 degrees. An active cold front brought severe weather to the Lone Star State yesterday, and was now east of the Mississippi. In the wake of the boundary, cooler temperatures and a brisk west wind prevail. A cut off low over the south central United States is responsible for the wet weather, so the clouds my linger, but the cold air will struggle to gain traction.
Cooler air will continue to wrap into the Tyler region through tomorrow morning, leaving some overcast in the morning, but flow will level off on Friday, and early summer heat will build back into east Texas. The front that moved through yesterday will maintain a presence in the Gulf and along the east coast as the cut off low gets folded into the mean jet flow, and this will prevent humidity and storm chances from taking hold, even as heat returns.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 55
Friday – Sunny and warmer, High 88, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 58
Friday – Sunny skies.  High 87, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 84, Low 57
Friday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 84, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 55
Friday – Clear throughout the day. High 85, Low 58

Here we see clouds most aggressively in the lower Mississippi Valley with that trailing band of overcast.

Be well, everyone

Tyler, Texas

Hi friends! I hope the holiday weekend left you recharged to attack the workweek. I think mine just made me want another week off!

At 953AM, CT, Tyler was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with sunny skies. Dew points were sultry, sitting in the mid to upper 70s across the region, feuling a surprisingly robust cluster of thunderstorms in southwest Arkansas, with some storms developing southwest into Texas, where a couple of cells were popping up just to the north of Tyler, and Gilmer was reporting thunder.
A very weak perturbation at the mid levels is sweeping through the region, beneath a similarly low powered ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley. This is enough to give some semblance of organization to the thunderstorm activity across the area, however widespread convection is likely across the southeast this afternoon as broadscale northwesterly flow trails some weak rotation centered over the Carolinas. Tyler will be at the western edge of this convective activity through mid afternoon tomorrow, and a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. As low pressure organizes a bit over north Florida, and gets entrained with a trough over the Gulf Stream, The northwesterly flow will subside in Texas, but so too will the stream of moisture towards Tyler. Expect a hot and humid day on Tuesday, but without the threat for rain.
Tomorrow – Hot and partly cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm, High 94, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, hot High 95, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 76
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 95, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; humid High 93, Low 75
Tuesday – Partial sunshine; humid High 94, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 93, Low 76
Tuesday – Sunny, High 94, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 93, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny,, High 94, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day.High 91, Low 73
Tuesday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 72

Guidance has already proven to be a bit too cool today, so I’m anticipating that to continue for the next couple of days. It looks like The Weather Channel and I are the only two on that bandwagon, as well as the threat for storms tomorrow. They ARE tops in the standings so far this year, so I think I picked a good partner. Here is radar, with a couple of storms popping up to the north.