We’ve been exerting our forecasting resources on the Grat Lakes and Gulf Coast lately, but today, we make a move to New England. What will we get out of the deal?
At 1106AM, ET, New Haven was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with overcast skies. An upper level trough, pretty much the only one in North America right now, is angled from Quebec through New England and into the northwestern Atlantic. Surface low pressure at the base of the trough in the Atlantic was conjoined with the low in Quebec by a stream of clouds and light rain.
The storms in the Midwest that Anthony discussed yesterday are part of a short wave that is riding the coattails of the upper level boundary, and will continue to move east, mostly intact through the day today, though without the level of severity. The upper level trough will rotate into the Canadian Maritimes, allowing New Haven to clear out a bit tonight, but as the shortwave gets to the Ohio Valley, it will start to produce an onshore flow into southern New England that suggests a rainy day tomorrow in New Haven. It will be just rain and not thunderstorms, let alone severe storms, which is the good news, but Thursday looks pretty damp, especially in the late morning when the wave axis will be pivoting through New Haven. Guidance is universal in suggesting at least one significant round of heavy rain moving from downstate New York headed east through southern New England at the north end of the surface reflection of this wave, and the fact that many sources are hinting at this precipitation bullseye, it’s hard to discount, even though sometimes those bullseyes are flukey model generated aberrations. The system will rotate towards Nova Scotia through the day tomorrow, and it will lead the heavy morning rain to become lighter afternoon showers which will clear out by midnight. Surface high pressure will follow the shortwave, and as crummy as tomorrow looks, Friday looks very pleasant.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, with a couple of inches in the morning and early afternoon not out of the question, tapering off late, High 66 Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny and warm, High 75, Low 55
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain High 65, Low 59
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 73, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness with rain tapering to a couple of showers High 68, Low 59
Friday – Partly sunny and warmer High 76, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. The rain could be heavy at times High 65, Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny High 78, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Rain. Rain may be heavy at times High 64, Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny. High 78, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers Hgh 64, Low 59
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 79, Low 54
This broad view on satellite gives a pretty good perpective on everything going on right now. There is the trough creating all the moisture from Quebec to the low in the Atlantic, then the broad swath of showers and storms moving through the Ohio Valley is the remnants of yesterdays derecho activity.