Tag Archives: New Haven

Dry But Chilly

While a trough swung its way through the New Haven region to start the week, conditions were such that they didn’t really need to worry about precip in the area. That turned out to be the case and outside of the relatively chilly temperatures, wasn’t too bad of a start to the week. Weatherbug took home the win.

Monday: High 35, Low 15.
Tuesday: High 28, Low 9.
Forecast Grade: A

New Haven, Connecticut to Danville, Illinois

A day and a half is all it will take to travel from Connecticut to about shorteast distance into Illinois you can get and still say you are in Illinois. That will cover 900 miles at a pace of 65.3 mph. That will leave us with a 522 miles day on Tuesday, with less than 400 to go on Wednesday. Manageable, and the weather should be brilliant.

DAT ONE (Tuesday)
New Haven
High pressure will only be getting stronger over the Great Lakes through the night tonight and into the day tomorrow. Expect some mostly cloudy conditions to give way to mostly sunny skies. A good dividing mark will be the higher terrain of central Pennsylvania, with sunny skies really emerging in Ohio. The day will end in Akron.

DAY TWO
The last little bump on this trip will be even less variable. Just sun until about 2pm, when we arrive in Danville. Temperatures will even be kind of warm, with any snow in the area melting in the January thaw.
DanvilleIL

New Haven, Connecticut

Let’s go to New England. That’s always a good time, climatologically, this time of year.

At 853PM, ET, New Haven was reporting a temperature of 38 degrees with clear skies. Aloft, New Haven was clearly found at the eastern third of an upper level trough, however a tropical jet across Florida was doing an excellent job of allaying any cyclonic development along the Eastern Seaboard.The upper trough was simply producing a few flurries in the Catskills.
As a vorticity maximum at the base of the trough rotates through the New Haven area tomorrow morning, some marine fog and clouds may develop, lasting through the early afternoon. The perturbation will pitch into the Gulf Stream, causing a more rapid cyclogenesis out at sea. No precipitation will happen over land, however a response will come, with cold air driving south into southern New England.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 30, Low 16 (Non standard)
tuesday – Sunny, High 31, Low 11

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny, High 30, Low 16
Tuesday – Sunny skies, High 32, Low 11

AW: Tomorrow – Windy and colder with sun and some clouds; a flurry around in the afternoon High 32, Low 18
Tuesday – Plenty of sun, but cold High 30, Low 15

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 32, Low 17
Tuesday – Sunny, High 28, Low 8

WB:Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 32, Low 16
Tuesday – Sunny, High 28, Low 8

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 32, Low 18
Tuesday – Sunny, High 28, Low 9

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 36, Low 16
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 29, Low 13

The rare dry cold front coming through during winter in the northeast. There are worse fates. Here is the satellite, which isn’t particularly active this ervening.
New Haven

Only flurries? Hardly worth mentioning

With as much snow as the northeast has seen lately, it seems almost passe to mention just a few flurries in the forecast. That’s the best explanation I have for Forecast.io and the New Haven forecast. Model trends had been steering rather aggressively towards snow starting on Saturday, rather than Sunday as was the forecast early in the week. I think everyone recognized that significant accumulation will continue to wait until Monday, however there was a good chance that the city would at least see some flurries. FIO was the only outlet to leave them out, and it ultimately cost them the victory in Connecticut. Victoria-Weather wasn’t far behind on temperatures, and we had the proper precip forecast. Victory!
Actuals: Friday – High 24, Low 9
Saturday – Trace of snow, High 30, Low 21

Grade: C

New Haven, Connecticut to Missoula, Montana

Let’s see if this westward journey will be as enjoyable as Anthony’s trip was yesterday. We’re going to be taking a 5 day trip that covers 2459.8 miles. That should work out to about 65mph with a daily pace of nearly 520 miles a day. The 5th day will be a bit shorter. This is going to be a little bit more grueling than yesterday’s trip, isn’t it?

DAY ONE (Saturday)
New Haven
The Northeast has been assaulted by snow lately. Connecticut has been particularly hard hit, though it was rougher in the eastern and northern part of the state. There will be a little bit of light precipitation as we start on our way from New Haven, but the good news is, it will be falling as rain. The bad news, of course, is that it may be freezing on contact. Oops. Slick conditions with a little bit of freezing drizzle will continue through Williamsport. After we get to western PA, things will clear out, and the rest of the day will be marvelous. We’ll end the day in Richfield, Ohio, south of Cleveland, which will also be marvelous.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
An organizing area of low pressure along a mostly stationary boundary in the Great Lakes will begin to churn things up across our route on Sunday. It will be raining lightly as we begin our drive in Richfield. We’ll be driving almost directly through the central low pressure in northern Indiana, which means that we’ll see light rain all the way through Chicago. Sometime around Rockford, some light snow may begin mixing in with the rain, and by the time we hit Madison, it should be all snow. We won’t go much further than Madison, stopping for the day in Portage, Wisconsin.

DAY THREE (Monday)
The area of low pressure that brought us the light rain and snow on Sunday will safely be tucked away in New England, bringing a ton of snow to Boston again, and perhaps a bit of ice to New Haven. Our day will be significantly less stressful. The drive through western Wisconsin and Minnesota will be pretty relaxed. Mostly sunny skies with dry roads will take us through Saint Cloud, at which point we will be reaching a weak warm front producing some light precipitation and a fairly dense overcast. The day will end in Peak, North Dakota, a small town near Valley City, still under the threat for light snow.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
It’s going to snow overnight in eastern North Dakota, and there is a pretty decent chance that wet snow will continue through western North Dakota as we make the trip. They close roads in the Plains if the winds are too strong in the midst of snow storms, but that shouldn’t be an issue on Tuesday, so we’ll be left to muddle through the snowy conditions. Things will begin to wrap up shortly after we’ve passed through Glendive. It will be cloudy with chances for lighter snow than we saw in North Dakota (it will remind of what we see in Wisconsin) as we pass through eastern Montana. The day will end, still under the auspice of flurry activity, in Ballantine, which is in suburban Billings.

DAY FIVE (Wednesday)
High pressure and upsloping is going to develop in Montana through midweek. This means we will see chilly but dry conditions throughout the plains in Montana, but by the time we start climbing into the Rockies, temperatures will start to climb.There is a pretty good chance that by the time we reach Missoula it will be back in the 40s.
Missoula

Texarkana, Texas to New Haven, Connecticut

Today we embark on a 3-day, 1453 mile road trip from a city named for both states it’s located in to the shores of Connecticut. Given the recent slate of storms that have hit the Northeast, let’s hope that we have a smooth trip, I’m not sure they can handle any more snow!

texarkana

DAY ONE

High pressure dominates most of the Lower MS River Valley and TN Valley, so outside of some possible low morning clouds, the trip eastward through Arkansas and past Memphis. Clear skies continue for the rest of the day as we end in Nashville for the night.

DAY TWO

High pressure continues to control the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states, making for another relatively quiet day as we trek eastward to Knoxville, then continue up scenic I-81 into Virginia, past Roanoke, and eventually into Harrisonburg, our stop for night 2.

DAY THREE

We’re going to avoid the larger cities of Washington DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia on this final leg, lest we run into into one of those metros during a grueling rush hour. Cloudy skies greet us to start the day, but dry weather is expected as we make our way past Hagerstown to Harrisburg, then continue towards Allentown and eventually Newark and northern NYC. A frontal boundary looks to slowly sag its way into southern New England, bringing some light snow showers to the area. Luckily, we should be in New Haven around the onset of them, so it shouldn’t affect our drive too much.

New Haven

New Haven recovers

A quick little wave moved through the mid Atlantic on Thursday morning. It was the remnants of a nasty squall that roared through Omaha and southern Iowa on Tuesday, but merely ended up a blob of rain showers by the time it moved through Connecticut and New Haven. The rain was well anticipated, and though some people thought it would rain a ton, it was always going to be widely variable across the region, so it wasn’t a surprise that it wasn’t a dumping specifically on NEw Haven. The real surprise was how quickly temperatures popped back up after the rain moved out. Nobody had a forecast warmer than 68, and the high, rain and all, was 73 on Thursday. Accuweather had the warmest high in their forecast on Thursday, and as a result, had the best overall forecast in New Haven.
Actuals: Thursday – .38 inches of rain, High 73, Low 62
Friday – High 77, Low 57

Grade: C

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania to New Haven, Connecticut

Hey, just a nice, short trip today, heading through Allentown and the greater New York area as we head to New Haven. It’s a hair over 4 hours between the cities in question, covering 258 miles. The average speed for this quick trip will be about 62.5mph, which I guess isn’t too bad, considering we are leaving from the mountains and travelling through a major metro area. The most major of them, actually.


Harrisburg
An upper level wave that is interacting with a vort max moving through the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic is moving even quicker than expected, and in fact it’s already over Harrisburg. By the time we leave at 10am tomorrow, it should have already shifted through town. We will get into the back end of the shower activity fairly quickly after we leave Harrisburg, probably by the time we hit Allentown. The rest of the way into New Haven will be afflicted by rain showers. Still, we dodged a bullet by not having to drive through northern New Jersey when the rain is at its heaviest. That would be the worst.
New Haven

New Haven, Connecticut

We’ve been exerting our forecasting resources on the Grat Lakes and Gulf Coast lately, but today, we make a move to New England. What will we get out of the deal?

At 1106AM, ET, New Haven was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with overcast skies. An upper level trough, pretty much the only one in North America right now, is angled from Quebec through New England and into the northwestern Atlantic. Surface low pressure at the base of the trough in the Atlantic was conjoined with the low in Quebec by a stream of clouds and light rain.
The storms in the Midwest that Anthony discussed yesterday are part of a short wave that is riding the coattails of the upper level boundary, and will continue to move east, mostly intact through the day today, though without the level of severity. The upper level trough will rotate into the Canadian Maritimes, allowing New Haven to clear out a bit tonight, but as the shortwave gets to the Ohio Valley, it will start to produce an onshore flow into southern New England that suggests a rainy day tomorrow in New Haven. It will be just rain and not thunderstorms, let alone severe storms, which is the good news, but Thursday looks pretty damp, especially in the late morning when the wave axis will be pivoting through New Haven. Guidance is universal in suggesting at least one significant round of heavy rain moving from downstate New York headed east through southern New England at the north end of the surface reflection of this wave, and the fact that many sources are hinting at this precipitation bullseye, it’s hard to discount, even though sometimes those bullseyes are flukey model generated aberrations. The system will rotate towards Nova Scotia through the day tomorrow, and it will lead the heavy morning rain to become lighter afternoon showers which will clear out by midnight. Surface high pressure will follow the shortwave, and as crummy as tomorrow looks, Friday looks very pleasant.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, with a couple of inches in the morning and early afternoon not out of the question, tapering off late, High 66 Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny and warm, High 75, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain High 65, Low 59
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 73, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness with rain tapering to a couple of showers High 68, Low 59
Friday – Partly sunny and warmer High 76, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. The rain could be heavy at times High 65, Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny High 78, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Rain. Rain may be heavy at times High 64, Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny. High 78, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers Hgh 64, Low 59
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 79, Low 54

This broad view on satellite gives a pretty good perpective on everything going on right now. There is the trough creating all the moisture from Quebec to the low in the Atlantic, then the broad swath of showers and storms moving through the Ohio Valley is the remnants of yesterdays derecho activity.

Corpus Christi, Texas to New Haven, Connecticut

After a long week of forecasts, we are back on the road for a 4 day haul. If I’m not mistaken, our last trip routed out of Corpus Christi as well. Interesting. This trip will take us 4 days at a pace of 62.9mph, which means those full days (day 4, Wednesday, will be a bit short) will cover 503 miles. Let’s get it on.

DAY ONE
Corpus Christi
And we are off like a herd of turtles. There is a weak area of low pressure attached to a cold front being forced into the southeastern US. Moisture is being drawn north into Texas at the behest of this area of low pressure, and as a resuly, from Corpus Christi to Houston, we will be contending with scattered showers with perhaps a lightning strike or two. Between Houston and Lake Charles, the storm activity will be more hit or miss, but when it hits, it will be fairly heavy. I think the threat for rain will end somewhere between Lake Charles and Lafayette, and when we reach Walker, east of Baton Rouge, the skies will have cleared.

DAY TWO
The cold front will fall apart before it ever really threatens the route on Monday, with a cooler, crisper ridge of high pressure filtering in. Lingering moisture from the remnants of Karen might bleed into the mountains of northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia, leading to a little bit of evening fog as we end the day in Rising Fawn, Georgia, which is just across the border from Alabama… and Tennessee, actually.

DAY THREE
While it appears there is nothing to worry about on Tuesday for the Appalachians if you simply look at the precipitation forecasts, I’m not thoroughly convinced. There is a cold front projected to move into the Mississippi Valley, and there is still a pesky area of low pressure off the east coast. I think we are in for fog through the Smokeys and much of Virginia. Sorry for the bad news. Our day will end in Rockingham, in northern Virginia.

DAY FOUR
A cold front moving into the Appalachians will encourage some greater southeasterly flow along the coast. This might mean some thicker clouds in New Haven when we arrive, but after we get out of the high country, I think things will be sunny and warm. Except for New Haven, I mean.Still a little warm there, however.
New Haven