Our forecasters were in for a surprise in New Hampshire. During our forecast for Manchester, ceilings were low, showers were everywhere and the town was destined to remain in the 60s last Monday. Then, the sun came out, and Tuesday spiked all the way to 80 degrees. Wednesday was even warmer, and forecasters were left hat in hand (mostly because it was too warm to wear it), trying to figure out just how it could be that toasty in October. The Weather Channel, as they have been lately, were the closest to the mark, gaining forecast victory Actuals: Tuesday – High 80, Low 52 Wednesday – High 84, Low 65
It’s been pretty warm in New England this autumn, so we aren’t ready to consider fall colors quite yet. Soon, though, and a trip to Manchester would be a good getaway from Boston regardless. How will that getaway look then?
At 1053AM, ET, Manchester was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 52 degrees. High pressure sits over New England in a broad sense, but at the surface moisture was straming to a trough over the central Plains, and a vorticity maximum over New York and evident on satellite loops, embedded in the flow is slowing the clearing for New Hampshire and the rest of New England.
The trough in the central Plains will be slow to organize into a typical cyclonic structure, and through Tuesday and early on Wednesday, expect the skies to clear up considerably. A warm front will organize over northern New England by late in the day on Wednesday, however, and some increased overcast will occur by that time. The rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael in the Caribbean will impact the amount of moisture available in New Hampshire, and for that reason, rain is being left out of the forecast on Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, increasing sunlight, High 76, Low 53
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, High 78, Low 67
Tomorrow’s road trip is going to be a pretty quick one, only 150 miles from Southern NH to Western MA. It’s over 50% shorter than the road trip I’m actually taking to IL tomorrow to see family. Odd how that works out sometimes.
It will be a relatively short road trip, but unfortunately, it’s going to be a wet one as low pressure is lifting over the Northeast and New England tomorrow. Rain showers will spread into Southern NH overnight and will continue to linger throughout the region tomorrow as we head westward into far southern VT before turning south on I-91 into MA. It’ll be a soggy day as we pull into Pittsfield around noon, and showers will continue throughout the rest of the day.
A cold front moving through New England over the weekend wasn’t really a big news maker, mostly because it didn’t carry with it a great deal of rainfall. It was, of course, the main attraction in our forecast for Manchester over the holiday weekend. Temperatures didn’t play nice for the duration of the forecast period, spiking warmer than expected on Saturday, and on Sunday, the temperature leading into the day was close to 50, rather than 40, as everyone expected. That, in large part, is because the front itself didn’t come through close to midnight, as had been anticipated, but rather closer to noon marked by gusty wind and a splash of drizzle on Sunday. Victoria-Weather had the latest time of the front’s arrival, and as a result, were able to claim victory, tortuous though it was.
Actuals: Saturday – High 58, Low 29
Sunday – Trace of rain, High 49, Low 33
Hey, let’s go up to New Hampshire for a forecast today, where the fall colors have passed, but winter hasn’t been welcomed quite yet either.
At 353PM, ET, Manchester was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with fair skies. There was a light south wind in the region, and most of the region was enjoying fairly warm, sunny conditions. Manchester finds itself in a position of some stability today, between parallel jet streaks through eastern Canada and east of the Gulf Stream in the north Atlantic. There is a surface low in western Ontario that is helping to induce the southerly breeze this afternoon in New England.
The parallel nature of the jet structure is inducing a pair of lows, the aforementioned wave in Canada, but also a rainier low moving through the western Atlantic. The offshore low will effectively steal moisture away from the terrestrial system, and despite a cold front arriving in Manchester on Saturday afternoon, it will be with little fanfare. The boundary will stall in the area, and the Atlantic feature will rock back towards the low, which will be in northern Quebec by Saturday evening. Circulation induced by these merging systems may bring some light snow showers to Manchester overnight Saturday into Sunday, but a cooler, drier flow will arrive by midday on Sunday. Clouds are still likely, but the threat for flurries will be at an end.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 34
Sunday – Early morning wintry mix, High 41, Low 30
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 53, Low 33
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 42, Low 34
AW: Tomorrow – Some sunshine giving way to clouds (late rain) High 55, Low 34
Sunday – A snow shower in the morning; otherwise, windy and cooler with periods of clouds and sun High 42, Low 31
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 52, Low 35
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 42, Low 30
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (evening showers, High 52, Low 35
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 42, Low 29
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 52, Low 35
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 40, Low 35
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon (late rain). High 52, Low 34
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. (early rain) High 41, Low 29
A look at the satellite shows that the action right now is to the north of the international border. The forecasts tell us that there are still many questions to be answered about what is going to unfold this weekend in New Hampshire. I should note, that where available, most of those forecast temperatures are non standard for Sunday.
Warm weather had arrived in New England last weekend as a warm front lifted north through Canada. It hit the mid 80s on Sunday, which is unusual , as you might guess, for this time of year in Manchester, New Hampshire, but it was a hurricane that nicked the temperature. Jose redirected a cooler easterly flow off the north Atlantic, and high temperatures dropped by 12 degrees on Monday, which was fine, because it was the work week. There was no rain, which prevented Forecast.io from earning the victory, instead, giving it to Accuweather.
Actuals: Sunday – High 84, Low 63
Monday – High 72, Low 63
We’re off to New England this afternoon, as they wait to see what Jose, out in the western Atlantic has in store.
At 153PM, Manchester was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes was pulling onshore fog and low clouds that was keeping temperatures on the coast up to 10 degrees cooler.
New England is beneath a ridge, however at the time, the atmosphere is responding to the trough over the Great Lakes, with warm, moist air being drawn into the region. Hurricane Jose, moving past the Bahamas and between Bermuda and the Outer Banks will disrupt flow into the Canadian low as it shifts into Hudson Bay, which will allow Manchester to dry out and enjoy a couple of nice days before any potential impact from Jose. An east wind, while drier at the surface, will also be cooler and cloudier than the flow presently seen.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 63
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a cooling east wind High 76, Low 61
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 82, Low 59
Monday – Overcast. High 73, Low 59
AW: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning; otherwise, partly sunny High 83, Low 60
Monday – Not as warm with periods of sun and clouds High 73, Low 60
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 80, Low 60
Monday – Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, High 71, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny, High 80, Low 60
Monday – Mostly cloudy, patchy fog in the morning. High 71, Low 60
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, HIgh 79, Low 59
Monday – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 72, Low 57
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 79, Low 62
Monday – Light rain starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 72, Low 62
Here is a look at the satellite, showing off those clouds encroaching on the New England coast. Depending on the model of your choice, the middle of next week will be pretty rainy as Jose passes by.
Manchester, England, much like the rest of the country, has a reputation of fog and drizzle interrupting even the nicest times of year. Manchester, New Hampshire followed suit, mimicking its namesake at the beginning of last week. There was a bit of drizzle on Tuesday, with fog both Tuesday and Wednesday, giving the region an English air. In the afternoon Wednesday, however, the temperature climbed into the 80s, reminding us that this was summer in America, not in the UK. There was a 4 way tie atop the leaderboard, between The Weather Channel, Accuweather, Weatherbug and WeatherNation, and the other three outlets were within 2 degrees of the winners.
Actuals: Tuesday – .06 inches of rain, Hgh 76, Low 64
Wednesday – High 83, Low 62
Ooh, this is going to be a long trip. The trip will cover 6 days on the calendar and 3165 miles on the map. Thanks to those transcontinental interstates that we will make use of, we will be able to maintain a speed of 67.3mph, which means the first 5 days will cover 538 miles per day. The final day will be a hair shorter, but by that point, I think we will just happy to be in San Jose.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Well, Gert is still going strong out in the Gulfstream, and indirectly, she will make our first day on the road a good one. High pressure with clear skies is going to move into the region, allowing us an easy drive through Massachusetts and Upstate New York. We’ll make it to the western part of the state and the town of Wesfield along the shores of Lake Erie, and just north of the Pennsylvania border.
DAY TWO (Thursday)
After a good day of driving on Wednesday, we will encounter our first real system, as an upper level low charges in from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. It’s not going to be one of those systems that has a ton of severe weather, especially as we first encounter it around Ashtabula, Ohio, but we might see some heavy rain and thunder nevertheless. The cold front is moving fairly quickly as these early autumn (I know, not yet) features can. We’ll get one last dose of rain around Chicago, and then cover the remainder of northern Illinois and make it all the way to Peru in the central part of the state before we call it a night.
DAY THREE (Friday)
It will be a bit cloudy as the low in the Great Lakes will slow down and churn up the atmosphere in its wake. An inverted trough angled from the Upper Midwest towards Iowa, a state that we will spend a great portion of our Friday. There may be a touch of precipitation between Des Moines and Omaha, but it will be very hit or miss. We’ll likely collect a drop or two, if my road tripping history tells me anything, but not enough to slow us down on the arrow straight I-80. We will make it into Nebraska, past Omaha and Grand Island, all the way to Wood River, where we will stop for the night.
DAY FOUR (Saturday)
Like I said, that weak little low seems to be the only issue we will encounter on our drive this week. A nice fat ridge will be setting up by the weekend over the Rockies and High Plains. Unless there are some microscale wind gusts in the valleys of Central Wyoming. We’ll make it to Red Desert, which is a small spot between Rawlins and Rock Springs.
DAY FIVE (Sunday)
There is rarely anything to chat about when we get from Wyoming to the Great Basin, both because the weather is pretty static, and because there aren’t many benchmarks on the map to reference if there is anything going on. By Sunday, that upper level ridge will be shifting to the east, allowing some monsoonal flow to start spilling back to the north, but any precipitation will be at the very peaks of the tallest mountains of the Wasatch. While we likely won’t see precipitation from these storms, don’t be surprised if there is a little bit of wind rushing down the mountains. We’ll stop in Battle Mountain in northern Nevada, which isn’t really a mountain, but a flat bit of land near a mountain.
DAY SIX (Monday)
More moisture will be spilling into the Great Basin as the ridge continues its departure. It will be late in the day before the wet weather shifts east to encounter the Sierras between Reno and Sacramento, and it seems very likely that we will get through the area before any real wet weather sets itself up. The heat wave has dissipated out west, so expect a comfortable drive through California to the Silicone Valley, finally culminating this enormous road trip.
There isn’t much space for cities in New England, but today, we’re headed for Manchester in southern New Hampshire. This would be much more interesting in winter.
At 953PM, ET, Manchester was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 70 degrees. A look at the observations in the area suggests that the clouds in Manchester are keeping temperatures artificially warmer, as clear skies were being observed nearby, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s from Boston to Concord. Tropical Storm Gert lingers off the Carolina coast, with a remnant cold front slicing just south of Long Island into southern New Jersey, and an upper level low spins over central Quebec.
Gert will get wrapped into the dangling boundary, pulling it further to the east, which will in turn allow the upper low to drift to the east. Expect a weak boundary to move through the region tomorrow evening, with an increase in clouds. There could be a spot of rain, but most of the activity will remain in the mountains north and west of Manchester. Cool high pressure behind this round of shower activity will take hold on Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with a bit of late drizzle, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 65
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 80, Low 61
Wednesday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 81, Low 63
AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 82, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 83, Low 65
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers between 10am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Partly sunny high 84, Low 63
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 84, Low 64
WB: Tomorrow – Party sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 80, Low, 63
Wednesday – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 65
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 82, Low 63
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 64
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 77, Low 60
Wednesday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. high 77, Low 61
Here is a look at the satellite, which didn’t pull in too tight to the Manchester area, but you can see all the features I described, from Gert, to the cold front to the Quebecois low.