Tag Archives: Lima

Starting 2019 strong

The first forecast of the year was for Lima, Ohio, which was getting winged by a strong spring like system that was sliding from the Lower Mississippi Valley towards New England. Lima ducked any wet weather, all while hitting temperatures that were nearly perfectly forecast by Victoria-Weather. In fact, they were perfectly forecast on Saturday. It was a solid start to the new year.
Actuals: Saturday, High 48, Low 30
Sunday – High 43, Low 33

Grade: A-C

Lima, Ohio

It’s Friday, it’s time for the weekend, and it’s time for my first forecast of the year! We’re going to Lima, Ohio, a nice Midwestern spot for the first stop of the year.

At 1253AM, ET, Lima was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with sunny skies. Most of the state of Ohio was in the embrace of warm high pressure, however a large system in the southeast could be seen in the southeastern US, with the northern reach of clouds brushing the Ohio River. The system is expected to continue towards New England through the night tonight, but there is consensus that the precipitation will not extend northeast to Lima.; 
An overriding ridge will become the predominant feature aloft, further reinforcing the warm up in Lima over the weekend and bringing out a vast dome of high pressure, stretching from the Gulf to Canada. It’s going to be a sunny weekend in Lima, with unseasonably warm temperatures, with a little bit of morning fog possible if there is anything on the ground available to be evaporated.
Tomorrow – Early clouds, becoming sunny, High 48, Low 30
Sunday – Sunny, High 44, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies.High 46, Low 29
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 37, Low 30

AW: Tomorow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 45, Low 30
Sunday – Partly sunny High 40, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 47, Low 30
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 40, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 31
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 39, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 47, Low 30
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 40, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 46, Low 31
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 40, Low 30

Here is a look at the current satellite (about 10 hours after the original forecast) showing just how close those clouds are coming to Lima tonight. Nothing to really worry about though!

Pueblo, Colorado to Lima, Ohio

Today we embark on a 3-day trip from the foothills of the Rockies to the Ohio Valley. 1,249 miles separate Pueblo from Lima, so let’s hit the road!


A system shifting through the Four Corners into the Southern Plains is bringing snow to the Pueblo area during the overnight into early morning hours. Some light snow will continue to fall as we head eastward out of the area. After an hour or two, the precip will come to an end as the focus of the system shifts down over OK/TX, leaving dry weather and partially clearing skies as we head into western Kansas. Dry weather will continue throughout the remainder of the day with some northerly winds. A rather pleasant afternoon is expected as we eventually pull into Salina, KS for the night.


The storm system over the Southern Plains will quickly make it’s way into the Ohio Valley throughout the day. Dry weather and partly cloudy skies greet us as we start our day, though it will be noticeably cooler than the previous evening. Mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the day on our eastward jaunt along I-70. There’s a slight chance of some late-afternoon/early-evening rain showers as we close in on St. Louis, a product of some wraparound moisture still lingering over the Mid-MS River Valley behind our aforementioned storm system. St. Louis is where we stay for the night.


A weak ridge of high pressure shifts over the MS River Valley overnight, though it’ll be chilly as some cold air continues to dig in on the backside of this system. Partly cloudy skies will last throughout much of the day as we continue eastward on I-70 through Illinois and past Indianapolis. Overcast skies are expected as we approach Ohio and don’t be surprised if we see a stray shower as we turn northward out of Dayton towards Lima, but shouldn’t be anything more than a brief nuisance!

Lima, Ohio to Great Falls, Montana

Today we embark on a lengthy 3-day trip, which covers 1,681 miles from Ohio to Montana. Got a long weekend drive ahead of us, so we don’t have a minute to waste!


A system is pushing its’ way out of the Eastern Great Lakes, with the backend of the system still kicking up a few showers over Western OH. The windshield will be wet as we head northwest towards Ft. Wayne, but with high pressure moving into the Midwest, some sun should peek out during the day. As we push through Chicago midday, we should have partly cloudy skies and overall pleasant conditions. We head up along I-90 towards Rockford then north into Wisconsin, following I-90 past Madison and the Wisconsin Dells before finishing the day in La Crosse.


Today is going to be a long day, but it’s all westward on I-90! An area of low pressure is swinging through the Northern Plains during the night last night and we could see some light snow on our car as we head out in the morning. A rain/snow mix is expected as we start the day, which then changes over to some light snow, but only briefly. We shouldn’t have many road issues since it was rain as it moved through the rest of Southern MN overnight. A slightly faster route would have been to head up I-94 into ND, but with this storm expected to bring 6-12″ right along I-94 throughout ND, I-90 is the much safer play. Clouds will dissipate throughout the day as the cold front pushes off to the east and our main weather issue of the day will be gusty northwest winds coming in behind the front. That’ll probably sap our gas mileage, but otherwise, a fairly uneventful day as we cruise on by Sioux Falls and all the west westward to Rapid City, where we end the day. Thankfully the speed limit is 80 in SD!


A bit of energy kicking up snow is found over Nebraska as we start our final day of the trip, but some snow showers could sneak into Rapid City as we start the day. This activity will continue pushing towards the south, which means its impact on us will be minimal as the main axis of high pressure is found over Eastern Montana into the Central Dakotas. Even though the morning and midday hours should be okay, an area of low pressure is pushing through the Pacific Northwest today, and looks like it’ll start producing snow in the lee of the Rockies once we get to the late afternoon hours. We should be okay to make it northwestward to Hwy 87 then continue westward, but the last 50-100 miles could be a bit of slow-going as the snow showers get going as we make our way into Great Falls.

Burlington, North Carolina to Lima, Ohio

It’s not like we aren’t in a well populated part of the country, but our route is interesting in how few large cities it touches in its 529 mile journey. Expect it to last just under 9 hours at a pace of about 60.5mph. So let’s knock this day of driving out and see what weather is in the forecast.

There will be a little bit of lingering moisture up in the high terrain of western North Carolina as we awake on Saturday. A trough developing off shore will increasingly steal moisture from the Carolinas, though, and we will get underway with partly cloudy skies, some spotty ground fog, but really no other sizeable concerns. Well, not with this system. A wave moving out of the Upper Midwest will extennd a warm front through the Great Lakes. While it is doing that, it may draw some of that moisture across the Appalachians. Don’t be surprised if there is a dose of light rain around Charleston, and as far to the northwest as Chillicothe. The great news, though, is that we will be in the clear through the remainder of Ohio. Expect a bit of a heat wave, Ohio! Lima will feel like the one in Peru upon our arrival.

Lima, Ohio to Janesville, Wisconsin

It’s a road trip! There was a bit of snow throughout this area yesterday, but we will be be navigating the ground at about the perfect time. Not only that, but we will be making the trip on a Sunday, so the traffic in Chicago will be manageable. It’s 6 hours between the two cities, and only about 336 miles between the two. Our pace for the day long journey will be a glacial 56.8mph, but rest assured, we will still manage to cover all the ground we need to. Heck, we’ll do it before dinner.

High pressure is swiftly retreating from the eastern seaboard, which will help eliminate the strong west winds over the Great Lakes. It will be dry through northern Indiana, which was really the only part of the trek where we would need to worry about lake effect snow on this particular day. At the back end of the ridge, return flow will begin importing moisture north towards Chicago, with a wintry mix possible Sunday afternoon, but we should skate through Chi-town before there is any significant impact to us. Janesville will be seeing increasing clouds and a brisk east wind when we arrive.

It could have been worse

It appeared as though the weather in Lima could have been a real wreck if things had come in a bit colder. Temperatures climbed all the way to the mid 50s over the weekend, indicating that the warm sector worked much farther to the northwest than anyone really anticipated. This meant that there was no cold air at the surface in which to produce freezing rain on Saturday as precipitation moved in, which is great news. Temperatures actually started climbing right after midnight, and it was 35 when it started raining. The Weather Channel did nearly peg the high temperature on Saturday, to be honest, but even they had a little freezing rain in the forecast. The real hay was made when it came to the non standard low on Sunday. The Weather Channel didn’t extend hourly forecasts that late into the forecast period, otherwise they likely wouldn’t have lost so much ground to Accuweather, the only other outlet who had an inkling that temperatures would get so warm. If they had just provided a little more information, The Weather Channel would have been in the mix, but instead, Accuweather gets the W fairly easily.
Actuals: Saturday .83 inches of rain, High 55, Low 28
Sunday – .18 inches of rain, trace of snow, High 53, Low 24

Grade: B-D

Lima, Ohio to Cleveland, Tennessee

Today we embark on a one-day trip through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Only 455 miles separate Lima, OH and Cleveland, TN, will be be a easy trip, or will weather slow our arrival? Let’s find out!


A strong area of low pressure is lifting northeast through the Eastern Great Lakes, trailing a strong cold front down along the Appalachians into the Central Gulf of Mexico. Luckily, the heavy rains and thunderstorms that have been affecting the Deep South will have pushed east of our route by the time we start the day, so that’s one less thing to worry about. Some light fog and rain showers will be scattered around the area as we head south towards Cincy. As we push through eastern Kentucky, there might be some rain/snow showers as the temperatures in the region start to plummet behind the cold front. They won’t be particularly strong though, and shouldn’t inhibit our progress as we continue into Tennessee. A couple light showers might persist into the evening as we approach Cleveland, but overall the afternoon and evening hours should be quieter than how we started the day.


Lima, Ohio

It’s the second forecast of the year, and we’re headed for northwest Ohio. This should get a little bit messier than it was in Poughkeepsie yesterday.

At 1153AM, ET, Lima was reporting a temperature of 33 degrees with clear skies. West winds were being dictated by a departing area of low pressure in easttern Canada, as well as the northern end of a ridge that has remained over the eastern third of the country for the last several days.
A deep, plunging jet over the southern Plains is angling the exit segment of a trough northeast from Texas to the southern Great Lakes. As the jet arrives in the southern Plains, it has begun to develop into a surface low, tapping into Gulf moisture. It is firing some of the moisture north along the exiting jet streak, which also defines a strong warm front. By tomorrow morning, Lima will be seeing a wintry mix, with some sleet and freezing rain for an hour or two. By the late morning, temperatures will climb above freezing and heavy rain will take over. The inundating rain will persist through the rest of the day. It will finally clear out just before sunrise on Sunday, and behind all this rain will be cold air and lighter precipitation. The transition back to snow will be smoother, but the cool down, along with the potential for a couple inches of rain will lead to freezing on roadways. Even an inch or two of snow on Sunday will be extremely slick. Temperatures will be non standard on Sunday as well.
Tomorrow – Sleet and ice, turning to rain, of which a couple inches may be possible. High 48, Low 29
Sunday – Rain initially changing to snow late, High 48, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain/Freezing Rain, High 54, Low 31
Sunday – PM Rain/Snow/Wind. High 53, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer with rain High 52, Low 31
Sunday – Windy and colder with a couple of showers of rain or snow High 53, Low 21

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow and freezing rain before 9am, then rain. High 47, Low 30
Sunday – A chance of rain before 8am, then a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, High 47, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Rain…possibly mixed with freezing rain in the morning…then rain in the afternoon. Ice accumulation up to one tenth of an inch. High 48, Low 30
Sunday – Cloudy. Chance of snow showers…possibly mixed with rain in the morning…then chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Windy High 48, Low 21

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Chance of Light Freezing Rain High 46, Low 27
Sunday – Cloudy with Chance of Wintry Mix High 46, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day (snow/sleet early). High 47, Low 30
Sunday – Light snow (under 1 in.) in the morning and afternoon and breezy in the morning, High 44, Low 22

Looks gross for Lima. I really appreciate Forecast.io’s easy to use page, and find that Weatherbug and WeatherNation remain unmitigated disasters in accessing granular forecasts. Here is the satellite. It’s pretty disorganized complex right now, but model guidance is pretty uniform in the expectation that things will deteriorate this weekend.

Dodging drops

I noted on Thursday when the forecast for Lima was issued that the success or failure of the forecast would come down to precipitation forecasts, and that was accurate. The Weather Channel was the only outlet to keep Lima dry, and indeed, showers and storms artfully dodged northwestern Ohio. A little shower came close last night, but faded just before it arrived. Strong storms veered north of the area and heavy rain stayed in southern Ohio. TWC wasn’t the best precipitation forecaster though, as that honor went to WeatherNation. Those two outlets ended up tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday – High 89, Low 61
Saturday – High 84, Low 70

Grade: A