Taking the checkered Flag(staff)
Posted by Ryan
Things went well for both Victoria-Weather and residents of Flagstaff. It was a degree or two warmer in Flagstaff than forecasters had envisioned, and with Victoria-Weather putting out the warmest forecast, it was our win for the taking.
Actuals: Friday - High 36, Low 18
Saturday - High 48, Low 19
Grade: B
Flagstaff, Arizona to Battle Creek, Michigan
Posted by Anthony
The Desert Southwest. The Great Lakes. What do these two places have in common? Today's road trip! It's 1,803 miles between these 2 cities and it'll take 4 days to cover it. Away we go!
DAY ONE
While a trough digs its way into the Central US behind the intense front bringing severe weather to the Eastern US, high pressure is nosing its way into the Great Basin. Some high clouds are expected as we mosey along I-40 through Houck, Gallup, Albuquerque and eventually into Santa Rosa, our 1st stop after a rather uneventful day.
DAY TWO
More of the same from yesterday! High pressure continues to build eastward, and combined with an area of high pressure that's built over the Gulf Coast, is making for another pretty quiet day as we make our way through the TX Panhandle and through Oklahoma City to our eventual stop, Tulsa, for night two.
DAY THREE
After nearly 2 full days on I-40, we start heading off towards the northeast so we can get to our ultimate destination! Our friendly high pressure system continues to shift eastward, keeping the weather along our trip fairly benign through St. Louis and onwards into central Illinois. We could see some fresh snow on the ground as we near Springfield from a possible system moving through the state during the early morning hours, but it will be A-OK by the time we arrive for the night.
DAY FOUR
The final leg! High pressure will have pressed eastward over the East Coast, and with an area of low pressure developing over Central Canada back over the Northern Rockies, winds will be on the increase for most of the Central US this day. We might have some low to mid-level clouds to contend with at the onset of the day, and could linger through the morning, but ultimately will break up as we continue towards Chicago and eventually into Lower Michigan. Should be a decent afternoon to finish our trip as we cruise past Kalamazoo into Battle Creek!
Flagstaff, Arizona
Posted by Ryan
We're off to our favorite southwestern location (or so it seems) with a forecast for Flagstaff. The first day of March, and meteorological spring! IT's a good day all around.
At 1257PM, MT, Flagstaff was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with sunny skies and a gusty west wind. A slow moving ridge is pushing its way ashore, with the jet running directly atop the 4 Corners area, helping generate some gusty wind and mountain snow in Colorado.
A dry cold front associated with an inflection in the jet will cool things off tomorrow, but then Flagstaff will enjoy some warming temperatures with north winds abating and becoming more variable. Sunny skies will be the norm for Flagstaff, and winds tapering off will create a very pleasant beginning to the month of March. In like a lamb in Flagstaff!
Tomorrow - Breezy and sunny, High 35, Low 18
Saturday - Sunny and warmer, High 46, Low 16
TWC: Tomorrow - Sunny and windy High 35, Low 13
Saturday - A mainly sunny sky High 46, Low 14
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, becoming windier and cold high 34, Low 18
Saturday - Bright sunshine and warmer High 45, Low 16
NWS: Tomorrow - Sunny, High 35, Low 21
Saturday - Sunny, High 43, Low 12
WB: Tomorrow - Breezy...colder. Partly cloudy in the morning...then becoming mostly sunny. High 32, Low 21
Saturday - Not as cool. Mostly sunny. high 44, Low 12
So Weatherbug is going cooler tomorrow than the rest of us. There is a smattering of high clouds over northern Arizona, not showing much, just that it's going to be a bit bumpy for any air travelers in the area.
Don’t question the monsoon
Posted by Ryan
All synoptic features, all meteorological forecast model guidance suggested that the plume of seasonal, monsoonal moisture would be in New Mexico the last two days. Naturally, both Tuesday and Wednesday, one little cell popped up right over Flagstaff. It really was a lot less widespread in northern Arizona, though. Flagstaff just got unlucky. The Weather Channel was able to parlay that unlucky couple of hours in Flagstaff into a victory in the first forecast of August.
Actuals: Tuesday - Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 80, Low 50
Wednesday - .01 inches of rain, High 82, Low 51
Grade: B
Flagstaff, Arizona to Lincoln, Nebraska
Posted by Ryan
AS soon as we arrive, we will be on our way out of Flagstaff, taking a two day trip to Lincoln, Nebraska. It is a rather mountainous 1266 miles, but western interstates have outrageous speed limits, so we will still average 70mph. Nice. Our first day will net ourselves a whopping 564 miles, and that ain't bad. We are going to be able to really open 'er up.
DAY ONE
IF we are looking to avoid showers or storms, driving through monsoon world probably isn't the best idea. The chances for thunderstorms will begin not long after we leave Flagstaff and will probably be a concern for the bulk of the day. The activity will pick up around Holbrook, bu the heaviest rain and storms will come between Gallup and Las Vegas, which isn't the one you are thinking of. We will be driving through some rain shadow New Mexico prairie from then on, but don't be surprised if there is another drop of rain here and there, especially as we approach Raton. The end of the day will be just across the Raton Pass in Colorado in Wootton.
DAY TWO
Driving through Colorado will be an adventure in hit or miss showers. There won't be much if it does rain (likely south of Colorado Springs) but it is an acknowledgeable possibility. Most of the showers and storms across Nebraska will actually our pace us. There will be some showers and storms that develop around Ogallala, Nebraska, but after we have made our way through that burgh. In fact, after we have crossed the Palmer Divide, I would be willing to guess we stay rain free for the rest of the trip.
Birmingham, Alabama to Flagstaff, Arizona
Posted by Ryan
Flagstaff seems to be a favorite destination on our road trips. This time, we will stay in he southern US, headed that way from Birmingham, Alabama, legitimately one of my favorite cities in the Union. It will be a three day drive, all three of them covering almost the same distance each day. It is a 1568 mile journey that we will tear up at a clip of 67.3mph, or 538 miles a day. Bon voyage!
DAY ONE
A sluck would have it, there is a sort of trough associated with a low off the Carolina coast that will provide a focal point for rain and thunderstorms across the Gulf of Mexico and near the coast... but not over central or northern Alabama. Instead, expect sunny, dry (though humid) weatherfor the entirety of the day. No problems whatsoever through Sallisaw, Oklahoma, which is the destination for the day.
DAY TWO
It's going to be an interesting day across Oklahoma on Wednesday. I suspect it will be problem free, but still, there is some guidance anticipating a few showers and storms across the state. I will say that there is some consensus that there will be wet weather over the Plains, there is more certainty a little further to the north. Maybe a splash of rain through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, but I suspect the day will actually be mostly cloudy and pretty easy. We will end it in Tucumcari, New Mexico.
DAY THREE
Rain and thunderstorms are expected to be pretty persistent over western New Mexico for the next two days. It's going to actually begin breaking down on Thursday, however. West of Albuquerque in the higher elevations, west towards Gallup, there could still be an isolated storm which could make things briefly a little more interesting. Other than that? I foresee no issues on the way in to Flagstaff.
Flagstaff, Arizona
Posted by Ryan
We haw had a pretty stormy day in the Twin Cities today.Time to get my head out of the sand and look at the rest of the world.
At 136PM, Mountain Standard Time, Flagstaff was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with a heavy thunderstorms. Storms were associated with the annual monsoon, with the heaviest of the activity directly over Flagstaff, though there were cells stretching southeast towards Payson.
The monsoon is fairly active across the region, but there was a notable southwesterly jet coming out of California. A little bit of upper air energy steering upper level flow further east should be enough to keep monsoonal convection to the east of Arizona for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 55
Wednesday - Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow - Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms High 77, Low 53
Wednesday - Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm High 81, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow - Times of clouds and sun, then turning cooler in the afternoon with a thunderstorm in the area High 82, Low 60
Wednesday - Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 83, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow - A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 82, Low 57
Wednesday - A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Mostly sunny High 82, Low 56
WB: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms high 79, Low 56
Wednesday - Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning...mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 80, Low 55
It will be interesting to see if I am right. I suspect I will be, and that storms will be Albuquerque's problem tomorrow.
Gusty winds, dropping temps
Posted by Ryan
Temperatures in Flagstaff climbed to about what we all thought, with highs peaking in the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday. A trough moving through the Great Basin aided the gusty winds to top out at 44mph on Wednesday and 46mph on Thursday. The real surprise was the cool air that settled in Thursday morning, with the temperature bottoming out at 45 degrees. Chilly. The Weather Channel had the top forecast thanks to their cool Thursday low.
Actuals: Wednesday - High 84, Low 52
Thursday - High 81, Low 54
Grade: B
Flagstaff, Arizona to Ogden, Utah
Posted by Ryan
Time for an interesting road trip, taking a 9 hour drive through the Great Basin. It's a good thing that we will be able to cover the entire route in one long day because there aren't many places between to stop. It's a 546 mile drive that we're on, meaning an average of 58.9mph, because there is little time on interstates.
Leaving Flagstaff and heading north, we should have a pretty scenic, enjoyable drive for a lot of the day. There should be a great deal of scenery to enjoy as we spend a lot of time in the back country of Arizona and Utah. We won't really see a lot of interstate until we hit Nephi, Utah, and thankfully, we won't see any rain until Provo. There is a chance for some showers and thunderstorms east of the Great Salt Lake which may slow down traffic as we head through during rush hour. Most of the rain will be on it's way out of town after about 1, however,so if there ARE any traffic problems, they are more likely due to every day rush hour than a stray storm rolling through Utah. Should be fine, with wonderful weather for our stay in Ogden.
Flagstaff, Arizona
Posted by Ryan
After spending so much time out east lately, we're going to be visiting the Rockies for a while. Today, it's Flagstaff, Arizona.
At 1057AM, MT, Flagstaff was reporting a temperature of 82, with clear skies. Satellite showed the smoke from the myriad wildfires throughout the northern half of Arizona. Relief was clearly on it's way, with monsoonal showers developing southeast of a line from Chinle to Payson.
A sharp, digging trough arriving on the coast of California will actually staunch the flow of moisture into the Flagstaff, directing air out of the Mojave instead of from the Gulf of California. Showers and storms will eventually develop as the system becomes more laminar and taps into Gulf of Mexico moisture... well to the east of Flagstaff. Expect more hot, dry weather in Flagstaff, and some strong winds as the system passes.
Tomorrow - Warm, windy and smoky, High 86, Low 53
Thursday - Dry, smoky, with wind tapering somewhat, High 83, Low 54
TWC: Tomorrow - Windy with a few clouds from time to time High 86, Low 50
Thursday - Mainly sunny High 83, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny with winds gusting past 45 mph High 83, Low 55
Thursday - Sunny and breezy High 82, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow - A slight chance of thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny High 83, Low 50
Thursday - Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow - Windy. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of dry thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 81, Low 54
Thursday - Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy High 84, Low 54
Quite a degree of separation between the Weather Service and Weatherbug today. That is, as they say, unusual. If you look at the satellite, the milkier clouds are the forest fires, while the brighter clouds are just that... clouds.
