It’s all day time heating

Our forecast for Fairbanks late in June featured a pretty decent thunderstorm on the 21st. It resulted in about a quarter inch of rain, and the revelation to a few people, I’m sure, that there is thunder in the middle of Alaska. The low pressure that shifted out of the area allowed Fairbanks to see a bit more of the non stop daylight from around the summer equinox, and all that daylight pushed temperatures to close to 80. Victoria-Weather got the top forecast for the day, despite speculating on rain every day through the forecast.
Actuals: June 21st, .23″ of rain, High 75, Low 53
June 22nd, High 79, Low 51

Grade: B-D

Fairbanks, Alaska

Fairbanks! Wow. This is certainly one of the most remote, but also one of the smallest towns that get forecast treatment here at Victoria-Weather. It’s a summer forecast as we approach the solstice, so it’s probably going to be a little tame, actually.

At 753PM, Alaskan Time, Fairbanks was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 74. There was a smattering of isolated showers and potentially thunderstorms ringing the city, with the most significant cell around Fort Greely. Deep low pressure south of the Aleutians is churning up moist return flow through southern Alaska, and is contributing to a few orographic showers and storms.
The system will continue eastward over the next couple of days, which will only invigorate the the shower activity in central Alaska. This will allow the activity to become more robust through the forecast period, before beginning to taper a bit in coverage and intensity as the low reaches the Panhandle and British Columbia.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High, 76, Low 54
Friday – Showers and storms early, winding down in the afternoon, High 77, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 75, Low 56
Friday – Partly cloudy skies High 76, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Becoming cloudy with a couple of showers High 76, Low 55
Friday – Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of showers High 76, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1pm and 4pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 4pm High 76, Low 55
Friday – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny High 76, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Haze in the morning. Partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce small hail frequent lightning and heavy rainfall in the afternoon. High 77, Low 59
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 76, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated storms, High 76, Low 56
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 75, Low 55

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 79, Low 54
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 54

Fun fact – I can copy and paste the first three outlets into this post, but I manually type the other forecasts in, so thanks for today ,Weatherbug. I’m not giving you an image, because I am exhausted, but find out more from Amanda Hanson at KTVF in Fairbanks.

Alaskan adventure

The forecasts for Fairbanks weren’t exceptionally bad, honestly, but I would say that an important lesson learned is that forecasting in Alaska is s very specific skill that is best honed by living there and forecasting the area all the time. It’s a different animal than the continental US. As one might imagine with this preamble, The National Weather Service collected victory. They were close on temperatures, and properly anticipated some showers coming down out of the mountains, which was not a thing that happened for everyone. So congrats, NWS, and we will see you in the CONUS.
Actuals: Monday, .02 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Tuesday – High 61, Low 41

Grade: A-C

Fairbanks, Alaska

It’s always a fun forecast when you have to establish the time zone before you can even begin analyzing the weather.

At 553PM, Alaska Time, Fairbanks was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. While Fairbanks and the rest of the Tanana Valley were appreciating dry weather, the mountains surrounding were being hit with rain which was heavy particularly to the northeast of the city. Low pressure had settled in north of the Alaska Range, but a lot of the effect was the result of local topography, and the system itself was most well organized over the Yukon and British Columbia.
The feature is prognosticated to shift out of the region by tomorrow morning, allowing the Tanana Valley to dry out. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will remain on Monday. A jet ridge will press north towards southern Alaska by Tuesday, with moist air moving into the Alaska Range, where rain will be possible. For this wave, Fairbanks will be in the clear, with moisture unlikely to descent to the city limits.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 40
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning. Increasing clouds with periods of showers later in the day. High 60, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon High 62, Low 43
Tuesday – Turning cloudy (late rain) High 63, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers after 10am. Partly sunny High 61, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 61, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 55, Low 39
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 56, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 62, Low 39

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 60, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 39

Fairbanks is a tough forecast. It’s not really close to anything else we forecast for, the terrain is absolutely wild, and the models are less available than it is in the CONUS. Here is the radar, with the rain showing up quite well surrounding town.