Tag Archives: Erie

Covered in clouds, but not in snow

In the wake of a big area of low pressure that shifted out of the eastern Great Lakes, westerly and northwesterly followed. With a fetch over the Great Lakes, Erie was encased in a persistent overcast. It wasn’t until Thursday that a bit of a wave moved into the area and added some snow to the equation. Temperatures weren’t allowed to vary much, thanks to the clouds, but they were perhaps not as dense as originally expected, particularly on Wednesday, when the temperature range was a bit broader than expected. WeatherNation won what will ultimately go down as the last verified forecast of 2016.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 37, Low 30
Wednesday – .18 inches of liquid, falling as snow, High 37, Low 33

Grade: A-C

Sacramento, California to Erie, Pennsylvania

One last thing to do tonight. We’re headed on a lengthy trip, 4 1/2 days from the Pacific to Eastern Time Zone. I can assure you that the weather at one end of the trip will be a bit different than the other. Expect a pace of 68.8mph, which will net 550 miles a day in our 2477 mile adventure. There is no time to waste, so pike into the family cruise.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

The drive from California eastward is always a terrifying hellscape of the western American wilderness. What if you break down? Well, you’re completely hose, because there isn’t anyone for miles. This is how we’ll feel everywhere east of Reno, all the way to the Bonneville Salt Flats of northwest Utah, wheere the day will end. The good news is, a ridge is settling into the region, and dry weather is expected.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
High pressure will still be in control of the western US, which is totally awesome! This will make the arduous drive through a Rockies go much more smoothly. We should make it through the rest of Utah and almost all of Wyoming before the day comes to a close. We’ll stop in Pine Bluffs, Wyoming, right on the Nebraska border to end the day. Salt Lake City is going to seem huge when we drive through.

DAY THREE (Friday)
Friday’s drive is going to be just fine, and we’ll have a boundary in the southern Gulf of Mexico to thank for that. You see, there is a weak clipper forecast to move from Alberta towards the Upper Midwest just as we drive through Nebraska, but flow out of the Gulf will be virtually non-existent, thanks to that boundary down by the Yucatan and high pressure along the Gulf Coast. Instead of seeing any inclement weather, we will instead only see warming temperatures and somewhat breezy conditions. The day will end in Dexter, Iowa. I’ve stopped for gas there before in the real world. Nice town.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
The systems that have been keeping precipitation development at bay on Friday will breakd down for Saturday. Through about LaPorte, Indiana, we will enjoy some pleasant conditions, though with increasing bluster. Starting with light flurries in northern Indiana, the threat for a wet snow will increase as that Clipper picks up stronger Gulf flow. We will be away from the source of moisture and the center of circulation, so we shouldn’t see snow much more intense than nuisance level, but it will still be our nuisance until we arrive in Toledo, calling it a night there.

DAY FIVE (Sunday)
Our little feature is going to be rapidly moving, and a some organization in the southeastern US will ensure it comes down faster than usual in the eastern Great Lakes. Most of the drive in Ohio will be fine, but Ashtabula is always snowy, and some of that flurry activity may stay with us all the way to Erie.

Erie, Pennsylvania

We are executing the rarely seen double forecast day, and we are doing it with locations at opposite ends of the country. I imagine things will be somewhat different.

At 1151PM, ET, Erie was reporting a temperature of 33 degrees with overcast skies and a brisk west flow off of Lake Erie.  The flow has the potential to produce some flurries, as is the case in Buffalo, but those snow showers are few and far between. A weak ridge moving into the area tomorrow will induce some southerly flow, stamping out the lake induced overcast.
The amplitude of the waves moving through the region, so any feature that attempts to establish itself will not do so with any staying power. The ridge will be pushed out by a fast moving trough. The length of the wave means a general lack of organization to the precipitation, but the strength of the flow  will insist upon a steep drop in temperature. Expect snow to start around midnight, with snow picking up in intensity during the predawn hours. Northwest flow off the Lake will mean flurries continuing in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with snow very late, High 35, Low 30
Thursday – Snow early, diminishing to flurries late in the day, High 36, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – A few flurries possible early. Cloudy skies High 35, Low 29
Thursday – Snow showers early will become steadier snow in the afternoon High 37, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – A snow shower this morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 35, Low 29
Thursday – Cloudy with some snow, accumulating a coating to an inch High 38, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow showers before 8am, then a slight chance of flurries between 8am and noon. Mostly cloudy high 38, Low 28
Thursday – Snow showers. High 38, Low 28

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning. Then partly sunny in the afternoon. Little or no accumulation. High 33, Low, 29
Thursday – Snow showers. Additional snow accumulation around an inch. High 36, Low 32

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of light snow showers High 37, Low 32
Thursday – Windy with snow showers, High 37, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 40, Low 31
Thursday – Mixed precipitation starting overnight.High 38, Low 32

Guidance suggests that temperatures may not vary much, but recent runs are more variable. I don’t think it will be as warm as the recent output has in store for Erie. We’ll see. You can see how vast the are of overcast is right now, with only a bit of clearing arriving along the coast.

Life is good in Erie

People often lament the rigors of a cold, rainy day, but in Erie, something interesting happened. It wasn’t cold at all! Temperatures jumped to the upper 60s, which was well above the total expected by the various forecast outlets. It was indeed rainy, though, with a trace of rain falling on Wednesday and a quarter inch coming on Thursday. Victoria-Weather leapt to the lead by being the only outlet with rain on Wednesday.
Actuals: Wednesday: Trace of rain, High 67, Low 29
Thursday: .26 inches of rain, High 69, Low 53

Grade C-D

Erie, Pennsylvania

We’ve been bouncing all over the country lately, and today takes us to the Great Lakes. In an area known for lake effect snows, let’s see what Erie is up to, hopefully no frozen precip!

At 1151pm EDT, the temperature at Erie, PA was 31 degrees under fair skies. An area of high pressure controlling the region should keep Erie in fairly good condition today, although clouds will be on the increase as the high shifts out over the East Coast and away from the Lakes. An area of low pressure ejecting out over the Central Plains on Wednesday will bring some light rain showers out ahead of it, although most of them should wait until after midnight. As the low pushes into the Western Great Lakes early Thursday, showers and a few thunderstorms will increase over the region, bringing some briefly heavy rains with it at times. The heaviest activity looks to be associated right along the cold front, which won’t push into the area until late Thursday night, perhaps early Friday morning. Luckily, the worst of any thunderstorm activity should remain off to the south.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds, isolated late evening shower possible. High 61, Low 29.
Thursday: Showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. High 65, Low 51.

TWC: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 63, Low 31.
Thursday: Rain/wind. High 64, Low 53.

AW: Wednesday: Partly sunny, breezy, warmer. High 60, Low 30.
Thursday: Windy with rain and a t-storm. High 63, Low 54.

NWS: Wednesday: Mostly sunny, increasing clouds late. High 59, Low 27.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. High 64, Low 51.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 61, Low 27.
Thursday: Thunderstorms. High 65, Low 51.

WN: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 59, Low 31.
Thursday: Windy with scattered showers. High 66, Low 52.

FIO: Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning. High 63, Low 30.
Thursday: Light rain throughout the day and windy in the afternoon. High 61, Low 50.

All is quiet on the lakefront, but that swath of cloud cover associated with an intensifying low pressure system will bring unsettled weather in a couple days.


A breakout

Moisture kept pumping into the country from the Gulf and along the periphery of an area of high pressure in the southeastern United States over the weekend. Perhaps you noticed if you lived in the central Plains, Ohio Valley or Great Lakes. One place that definitely noticed was Erie. They were smothered on Saturday, in particular, with temperatures sitting in the low 70s accompanied by drizzle. Sunday, however, the sun broke out and the temperature climbed above 80. Of course, they were clipped by a thunderstorm that brought over an inch of rain too, so maybe it wasn’t that great a day. The Weather Channel put together the top forecast overall.
Actuals: Saturday – .27 inches of rain, High 72, Low 60
Sunday – 1.04 inches of rain, High 82, Low 66

Grade: A-C

Erie, Pennsylvania

The forecast front takes us to the shores of Lake Erie. It may be fairly interesting weather for these particular Pennsylvanians today.

At 1051AM, ET, Erie was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with clear skies. Looming to the northwest is a quickly linearizing band of showers and storms through the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms were touching off in northern Indiana, and were expected to build through Michigan and then march eastward. Erie was within the slight risk today, and the linear nature of these storms, it is quite apparent that the greatest concern will be the threat of straight line winds.
The feature responsible for the coming thunderstorms is a surface low that is becoming increasingly ragged as it shifts to the east and away from the mountains that bore it. Still, a weak wave in western Quebec will allow the feature to hold together long enough to bring showers and storms to Erie today, and the heat in the area will allow those storms the chance to be severe. Unfortunately, thanks to the jet moving to the north, an overwhelming southerly flow and the dissipation of the wave that initially draped the boundary across the region, moisture will continue to pump into the eastern Great Lakes for the next few days. Today’s thunderstorms will be more organized and will be trailed by cold air, so there will be a lull in the action tomorrow, but by Sunday evening, expect storm activity to again be revitalized. Given the nature of the storm activity that is coming, there will be plenty of sunshine to enjoy during the afternoon on Saturday, and in the morning on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms, High 75, Low 63
Sunday – Scattered showers and storms, especially late, High 82, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (early storms), High 73, Low 61
Sunday – Partly cloudy, HIgh 80, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – A shower in the morning; otherwise, not as warm with clouds breaking for some sun High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Humid with times of clouds and sun; a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon high 78, Low 62

NWS: Tomororw – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, High 73, Low 63
Sunday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny High 77, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning High 74, Low 63
Sunday – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 78, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 73, Low 63
Sunday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 77, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day (early rain). High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Rain throughout the day.High 77, Low 64

Already today, the temeprature in Erie is higher than most had in the forecast. I am comfortable keeping my forecast high significantly warmer than others. Here is the radar, with showers just poking into fra over Michigan.

Erie, Pennsylvania to Visalia, California

We have a very long trip ahead of us today. It’s a 5 day journey covering those 2357 miles. There is quite a bit of interstate driving, so our pace will be a quick 64mph, and a daily clip of 512.5 miles. We’ll nearly match that on our 5th day, but it will be a hair shorter. We’re going a long ways, so let’s get going.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
An area of lore pressure is stuck north of the Great Lakes, and is leading that regon to be much chillier than one would expect for this time of year. Indeed, our entire first leg will be mostly cloudy and will be marked by a stray spritz os light rain, though certainly not something that will be overwhelmingly damp. In fact, there may be a bit of snow in some unfortunate slices of northern Indiana and Illinois. It will be bleak, regardless of how much precipitation falls, or what type, and we will call it a night in Peru, Indianna.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
A secondary cold front will develop associated with the area of low pressure that continues to fail to dislodge. It will falre up overnight, and as we leave Peru, there may be some wet snow falling as wake up, but it won’t accompany us for the drive. Instead, more unseasonably cool weather trailing us all the way to Giltner, Nebraska, which is east of Peru and our destination for wednesday night.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
I don’t think you could ask for a more abrupt change in topography than we will have from Giltner, Nebraska to Avon, Colorado, where we will end our third day of driving. The weather in the flatlands will be pretty awesome, and for the most part, it will be in the mountains as well. Unfortunately it looks like we might be approaching an active period in the Rockies, with another area of low pressure moving into the central Rockies. Thunderstorms will be possible, forced by southerly flow over the highest peaks. As you might suspect, the heaviest storms will be over the southern exposures of most mountainous regions, which will mean a fairly intermittent bout with storms from Denver to Avon.

DAY FOUR (Friday)
Expect a similar pattern for our route on Friday as we see on Thursday. Thunderstorms will be most active over the higher terrain, and particlarly during the afternoon. The funamental differet on Friday as opposed to Thursday will be that the threat for storms will be on the northeastern exposures of the mountains. Our best threat for seeing wet weather will be around Salina and Richfield, in the Wasach through southern Utah. We will make it to Leeds, northeast of St. George, and call it a day.

DAY FIVE (Saturday)
The pattern isn’t going to change a whole lot on Saturday, but the route we are travelling through will. There will be lingering precipitation, but it wil primarily be confined to the Sierras, which means the drive through Las Vegas, Bakersfield and then north into the central California Valley will be done with dry pavemennt. Fortunately, some of that precipitation in the Sierras will eventually run down to the Valley and help nourish the parched soil. It’s kind of the best result for all interested parties, travellers and farmers.Enjoy Visalia.

The power of persistance.

There wasn’t much going on with the weather this week in the eastern Great Lakes. Still, a persistent fetch off of Lake Erie and a quick clipper moving through the Great Lakes brought about 4 inches of snow in 48 hours for Erie. That’s nothing to sneeze at, particularly with so little going on, synoptically. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast in Erie, but everyone was pretty good.
Actuals: Wednedsay .5 inches of snow, High 27, Low 16
Thursday – 3.6″ of snow, High 32, Low 26

Grade A

Erie, Pennsylvania

Christmas is upon us. Will Santa safely arrive in Erie tonight, or will he have a snowy landing?

At 1251PM, ET, Erie was reporting a temperature of 21 degrees with snow. An area of low pressure has shifted off to sea, and behind this system, there is a light westerly flow coming off of Lake Erie with enough of a fetch to produce the snow showers they are presently seeing in the town of the same name.
A narrow upper level trough that is helping to direct the westerly flow will rotate out of western New York tonight with a slight surface ridge building in for Christmas morning. This should cut off the snow in Erie overnight tonight and through most of the day on Christmas. The next upper level wave, also fairly narrow and representative of an Alberta Clipper will move through the Great Lakes and arrive overnight tomorrow into Thursday. Expect a snow showery day on Thursday, but the activity will generally be lighter and fluffier than the lake effect activity they are seeing in Erie today. Merry Christmas!
Tomorrow – Very early and very late snow showers. Partly cloudy during the day, High 29, Low 15
Thursday – Snowy, High 32, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy High 29, Low 15
Thursday – Snow Shower / Wind High 31, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness with a snow shower around from midday on; breezy and cold High 28, Low 15
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and windy with snow showers with little or no accumulation High 32, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow showers, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 28, Low 16
Thursday – Snow showers likely. Cloudy, High 31, Low 23

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers High 30, Low 15
Thursday – Snow showers likely High 29, Low 26

Seems risky to ever take snow out of the forecasts in the Great Lakes, but that is what The Weather Channel wants, I guess. You can’t even make it out on radar though, because the snow isn’t falling from very high up, and there isn’t a radar right next door to Erie.