The last look of the year

Just before we rolled into 2022, I put together a forecast for Erie, which turned out to be quite sodden. Sure, it was unusually warm for northeastern Pennsylvania as the new year arrived, but a cold front an a system coming out of the Ohio Valley conspired to make sure the warmth was wasted, and it rained for most of the first two days of the year. Temperatures continued to drop through the first two days of the year, and while it was in the mid-50s on New Years Day, it was merely 22 on the 2nd. This forecast, since it started on the 31st counts as the last of 2021, and gets awarded to Weatherbug. Fitting, given how many forecasts they won this year.
Actuals: Jan 1st, .48″ of rain, High 54, Low 37
Jan 2nd, .15″ of rain, High 37, Low 22

Grade: B-D

Erie, Pennsylvania to Trenton, New Jersey

Trenton is right on the border with Pennsylvania, but you couldn’t ask for a longer drive into the next state over. It will take a whopping 6 1/2 hours to cover the 435 miles across the Keystone state,. The pace will be 65mph, which seems faster than I anticipated. Road trip 2022!

Erie, Pennsylvania

A large juggernaut of low pressure is battering the mid-Atlantic today, getting perilously close to the Trenton area. Pennsylvania itself is under the grips of a chilly high pressure. The nice thing about big areas of organized low pressure is that they move, and do so swiftly more often than not. The low will be headed for Newfoundland by the time we awake tomorrow morning, and Trenton, just like the entirety of Pennsylvania, will be cold but sunny and dry.

Trenton, New Jersey

Erie, Pennsylvania

We are starting the year as urgently as possible, as this forecast will post just as the day turns to 2022. Erie is right in the middle of the south shore of the lake that bears its name, and is susceptible to lake effect snow this time of year. Will Erie start 2022 on a snowy note?

At 1211AM, ET, Erie was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with light rain. Heavier rain was falling between Erie and Buffalo than in either of those cities, but with temperatures warm enough even at this early hour, the threat for snow to accompany the rain can be ignored. A cold front lies through southern Ontario, helping to generate the few showers on the southeast side of Lake Erie, but a broad, distended area of low pressure stretches along the Ohio Valley, and is a focal point for more robust showers, with some thunderstorms on the south side of this feature.
For at least the next day or so, these two features will run in parallel. The low over the Ohio Valley will slide just to the south of the cold front, holding the boundary in place the whole while. As the Ohio Valley feature shifts into the Canadian Maritimes, the front will start to shift a little bit more to the southeast, bringing about colder air and a significant threat for snow, somewhat amplified by the Lake. After holding steady through the mid afternoon tomorrow, temperatures will get steadily colder, and are likely to be non standard through the weekend.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, overcast, High 49, Low 42
Sunday – Early rain, followed by snow through the day, High 42, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 51, Low 38
Sunday – Snow during the morning will transition to snow showers during the afternoon. High 38, Low 25

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover and mild with a little rain; a wet start to the new year High 50, Low 38
Sunday – Rather cloudy and colder with snow showers, accumulating an inch or two High 39, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before 2pm, then rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, High 51, Low 40
Sunday – Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 11am. High 40, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. High 50, Low 37
Sunday – Rain showers in the morning. Snow showers. Light snow accumulation. High 37, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain, High 51, Low 39
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 39, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon. High 47, Low 36
Sunday – Possible light rain (with a chance of 1–2 in. of snow) overnight and in the morning. High 37, Low 22

WeatherNation with a rough start for the year, having the shortest hourly forecast. Of course, it is longer than it used to be, so their forecast is going to be better than we are accustomed to. Radar is most active northeast of Erie. Happy New Year!