The forecast front takes us to the shores of Lake Erie. It may be fairly interesting weather for these particular Pennsylvanians today.
At 1051AM, ET, Erie was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with clear skies. Looming to the northwest is a quickly linearizing band of showers and storms through the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms were touching off in northern Indiana, and were expected to build through Michigan and then march eastward. Erie was within the slight risk today, and the linear nature of these storms, it is quite apparent that the greatest concern will be the threat of straight line winds.
The feature responsible for the coming thunderstorms is a surface low that is becoming increasingly ragged as it shifts to the east and away from the mountains that bore it. Still, a weak wave in western Quebec will allow the feature to hold together long enough to bring showers and storms to Erie today, and the heat in the area will allow those storms the chance to be severe. Unfortunately, thanks to the jet moving to the north, an overwhelming southerly flow and the dissipation of the wave that initially draped the boundary across the region, moisture will continue to pump into the eastern Great Lakes for the next few days. Today’s thunderstorms will be more organized and will be trailed by cold air, so there will be a lull in the action tomorrow, but by Sunday evening, expect storm activity to again be revitalized. Given the nature of the storm activity that is coming, there will be plenty of sunshine to enjoy during the afternoon on Saturday, and in the morning on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms, High 75, Low 63
Sunday – Scattered showers and storms, especially late, High 82, Low 64
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (early storms), High 73, Low 61
Sunday – Partly cloudy, HIgh 80, Low 65
AW: Tomorrow – A shower in the morning; otherwise, not as warm with clouds breaking for some sun High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Humid with times of clouds and sun; a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon high 78, Low 62
NWS: Tomororw – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, High 73, Low 63
Sunday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny High 77, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning High 74, Low 63
Sunday – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 78, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 73, Low 63
Sunday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 77, Low 59
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day (early rain). High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Rain throughout the day.High 77, Low 64
Already today, the temeprature in Erie is higher than most had in the forecast. I am comfortable keeping my forecast high significantly warmer than others. Here is the radar, with showers just poking into fra over Michigan.