Tag Archives: Corvallis

The weekend slips away

Corvallis was at the tail end of a weak system when we checked in on Friday. Snow was falling in the higher Cascades, but things were on the upswing in the home of Oregon State University. Temperatures didn’t fall off after midnight on Saturday morning, and it all looked pretty good, with a warmer than expected start on Saturday. It all fell apart, however, on Sunday, as a storm coming out of the Gulf of Alaska socked the Pacific Northwest. There was even a stray flurry for Corvallis, as on Sunday, temperatures started cooler than anticipated. Kind of a crummy end to what had started as a nice weekend. Accuweather enjoyed the day’s top spot.
Actuals: Saturday – High 48, Low 35
Sunday – .34 inches of precip (some snow) High 44, L:ow 32

Grade B-C

Corvallis, Oregon

Good evening. Should we see what’s happening in Oregon?

At 1115PM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees. While Corvallis does not report sky cover, local sites were reporting mostly cloudy conditions.  A sharp trough, perpendicular to zonal flow, slices through southern Oregon and his producing a weak area of low pressure, which is generating enough moisture to insist upon winter weather advisories for the Cascades closer to Medford.
The trough is anomalous in its orientation, and will be snuffed out by the system’s attempt to equilibrate. Saturday looks to be in good shape, but a strengthening jet arcing over the Gulf of Alaska is carrying an Arctic wave along with it. Expect some chilly rain to move through, essentially washing out the end of the weekend.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 49, Low 29
Sunday – Rain expected, High 46, Low 35

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny high 49, Low 29
Sunday – Rain likely. Thunder possible High 45, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sun High 48, Low 31
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and chilly with a little rain, mixed with snow early on High 45, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy freezing fog before 10am. Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 39
Sunday – Rain before 10am, then showers after 10am High 45, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Patchy morning freezing fog. High 47, Low 30
Sunday – Rain and snow in the morning then rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Snow level 1000 feet. No accumulation expected. High 44, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with patchy freezing fog. High 46, Low 28
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light rain. High 45, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until night.High 52, Low 31
Sunday – Light rain starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 46, Low 36

I picked the water vapor today, because it best shows that rotation off shore of Oregon. It actually looks stronger here than it actually is.

Missing the memo

The day after Independence Day in Corvallis was supposed to cool down a bit thanks to increasing westerlies leading to more clouds. Not so much. Temperatures actually climbed a bit from the 4th of July, where it was 78 degrees, to 80 degrees on the day after. Not a single outlet had the temperature trends pegged down, which meant the warmest forecasts narrowly edged the rivals. Weatherbug and Accuweather collected a tie atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Monday – High 78, Low 48
Tuesday – High 80, Low 50

Grade: B-C

Corvallis, Oregon to Bay City, Michigan

We have a lengthy road trip in our future, as we are scheduled to last 4 1/2 days, covering 2437 miles. This will put us on a pretty quick 67.7mph pace. Our full days will last 542 miles, leaving a little bit of change at the end. Let’s navigate our way through some mountains.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)
corvallisAs we discussed yesterday in relation to Corvallis, there is a nice little area of of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest. There will be heat in the valley, and likely nott a cloud in sight from western Oregon into Idaho. We will make it to Wendell, Idaho to finish the day off. It should be plenty warm there as well.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
There will be a little bit of shower activity in the northern part of the Front Range from Montana to Wyoming, but an organizing low in the High Plains will wrap moisture into itself and away from the northern Rockies. We will make it to Elk Mountain .Wyoming without a drop, and call it a night.

DAY THREE (Friday)
That low that mentioned on Thursday will be a bowling ball of concentrated energy, shooting through the Upper Midwest and dragging slightly cooler but mostly dryer air into the High Plains. Once again, we will enjoy dry conditions for the drive on Friday, as we head out of Wyoming and across the longest part of Nebraska, coming to rest in Lincoln.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
The next wave will be moving into the Plains, thanks to predominant westerlies and the Rocky Mountains, overnight Friday into Monday. Southerly flow returning to the Plains will conflict with the southerlies behind the previous system, and in Lincoln, we may see a smattering of rain showers. The wet weather won’t be long lived, however,and we’ll be able to get through Iowa and Illinois unscathed, ending the day in Portage, Indiana on the shores of Lake Michigan.

DAY FIVE (Sunday)
As has been our fortune on this trek, expect more clear weather on Sunday as we make the final drive diagonally across the Lower Peninusla. It looks like the heat that we will see through much of the trip will even abate, leading to a pleasant end to the weekend in Bay City.

Bay City

Corvallis, Oregon

Time for a trip out west to a town that I kind of like forecasting for. Oregon is so diverse, and so exposed to the north Pacific. You really have to trust the guidance. It’s tough some times.

At 1135PM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees. They weren’t reporting a sky condition, but Salem, Eugene and even Newport on the coast were all reporting clear skies. There is a broad upper level trough angled towards the Pacific Northwest, but at this time, the surface reflection was all organized in southwestern Canada.
The jet will strengthen along the Columbia Gorge, feeding into the development of low pressure in Alberta and British Columbia through the day Monday, but it will actually draw moisture in from the Plains, meaning most rain and thunder would remain north of the border.  Corvallis will be dry each of the next two days, but the upper level westerlies may make things a bit cloudier than it has been tonight.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 80, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 78, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 80, Low 50
Tuesday – Periods of clouds and sun High 77, Low 51

NWS: Tomororw – Sunny High 79, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 78, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 79, Low 52
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy High 75, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 80, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly cloudy in the evening. High 76, Low 49

I suspect if this forecast goes awry it will be because of temperatures varying a little too little, thanks to their being more clouds than expected. Speaking of clouds, at the moment, there are hardly any in the Pacific Northwest. Take THAT, generalizations.

Corvallis

Corvallis still getting drenched

One could say that the weather Corvallis received the past couple of days was befitting a duck, but that might cause some disagreements in the home of the Oregon State Beavers. Their rivals, the Oregon Ducks are from Eugene. The weather was rather rainy, though, especially before sunrise and after sunset yesterday, when the two times combined for .85 inches of rain. The soggy weather helped keep temperatures down , which played a huge role in identifying the eventual forecast winners, which happened to be the National Weather Service. WeatherNation had their highest finish yet, coming in second.
Actuals: Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 42, Low 35
Tuesday – .85 inches of rain, High 50, Low 39

Grade: B

Corvallis, Oregon

We are off to western Oregon for this evening’s forecast. It’s a part of the world that has been getting pounded by a pipeline of moisture from the Pacific. How much more is in store for Corvallis?

At 335PM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with overcast skies and fog. The thatch of thick fog continues to fill the valleys of the northern Oregon Cascades, but actual precipitation has evacuated the region. A surface low over northern California is continuing to press to the southeast, taking any rain and snow inland, but no scouring boundaries means the lower level moisture will remain for Corvallis.
Of course, it doesn’t help that there is an area of persistent low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. A particular wave is moving into British Columbia, and the resultant westerly flow at the south end of the wave will reinforce moisture over western Oregon. This means fog and clouds tomorrow morning, with rain developing again in the afternoon as the wave works inland. Another, stronger wave will move into the area late on Tuesday. This will bring much heavier rain through mid week in Corvallis, with the first samplings of this next round of precipitation arriving Tuesday night
Tomorrow – Rain likely, otherwise dense fog and low clouds High 45, Low 34
Tuesday – A bit of clearing, with light rain early and increasing winds with heavier rain late in the evening, High 55, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Showers High 46, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a touch of rain High 54, Low 40
Tuesday – A thick cloud cover with a chance of rain High 54, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain, mainly before 4pm. Areas of fog before 1pm High 46, Low 36
Tuesday – Rain, mainly after 10am. High 50, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of morning fog. Rain. High 46, Low 38
Tuesday – Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning…then rain in the afternoon. High 47, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Rain High 46, Low 36
Tuesday – Scattered Showers High 50, Low 41

We have a pretty nifty satellite image. The dense fog at the surface is easily visible from Portland to Corvallis. Looks nice everywhere else in Oregon, though.
Corvallis

Corvallis, Oregon to Portland, Maine

This should have been up last night, but real-life intervened. And by that I mean Fall Season Premiere Week (seriously, go watch The Blacklist after you finish reading this post!!!) This road trip will actually cover an entire week, as we’ll need 7 days to cover the 3,270 miles between these two cities. Will we make it to Portland in time for the premiere of Amazing Race? This trip will seem like it’s own race!

corvallis

DAY ONE

A trough is swinging through the Pacific Northwest, bringing plentiful rains to the Cascades and even our first winter storm to portions of Montana and northwest Wyoming. Luckily, it’ll just be scattered showers along our trip past Salem and heading east out of Portland. It will be a showery, gloomy day as we head east on I-84 for the entire day, but the showers won’t give us any breaks as we head southeastward over eastern OR and into western ID. We finish our soggy day in Boise.

DAY TWO

Our storm system kinda stalls out over the Northern Rockies down to the Great Basin, but we’ll still be encountering rain showers at the start of our day as we continue eastward out of Boise. The heaviest activity will be found over northwest WY, which is luckily north of our route, so we’ll be subject to more scattered showers just like the first day. We end our day in Rock Springs, WY to regroup for day 3.

DAY THREE

The storm system will start lifting out of the Dakotas and into southern Canada during the day today, taking with it most of the precip associated with the system. While a boundary will continue to linger down into the Four Corners region, precip will be found mostly back over the Rockies and leave the Plains windy, but mainly dry. We might see a couple lingering rain showers as we head eastward through WY on I-80 during the day and continue into Nebraska with dry weather for the afternoon and evening. One thing to keep an eye on, however, is flooding along the South Platte, which is a product of the epic CO flooding the other week. We finish the day in Lexington, NE.

DAY FOUR

Well, during the night the frontal system caught up to us. It’ll be an overcast start to the day with a few possible showers as the front is draped from the Central Dakotas down to the TX Panhandle. We’ll once again encounter a few showers as we continue our eastward jaunt on I-80, but should taper off as we pass by Omaha. The remainder of the day should be dry as we finish up in Davenport.

DAY FIVE

Finally, a quiet day! A large area of high pressure had taken hold over the Northeast and Eastern Great Lakes, flexing its muscles over pretty much everywhere east of the Mississippi River. Luckily, 99% of our trip today is east of said river, so clouds will decrease through the day and we’ll get plenty of sun as we cruise on south of Chicago and through northern Indiana before settling in Cleveland for the end of the day.

DAY SIX

Another day, more high pressure! Not much to really say for today, other than enjoy the scenery as we push eastward through NY and finish the day in Albany. Almost there!

DAY SEVEN

A tiny sliver of high pressure remains over New England, sandwiched between the remains of the oncoming front and an area of low pressure developing off the coast. Thankfully, today’s leg is a pretty short one, and we cruise into Portland safe and sound!

Portland Aerial

Corvallis cool-down

Anthony lamented the non standard forecast in Corvallis a couple of days ago, but as it turned out, no matter when the low was, everyone was about 7 degrees off for the lows each on Friday and Saturday. The rain wasn’t as heavy as expected, which allowed a little bit more radiation of the heat, and on Friday, allowed for a warmer high. Once again, it isn’t a forecast to be proud of, but the top spot goes to Accuweather and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Friday, .02 inches of rain, High 53, Low 33
Saturday, .11 inches of rain, High 46, Low 33

Grade: C

Corvallis, Oregon to Ames, Iowa

Oregon State to Iowa State! It’s going to take 3 1/2 days to cover 1910 miles. Through the mountains and some wintry weather, we will still average 67.9mph, which is pretty darn speedy. That’s a daily log of 543.5 miles. Let’s cover the ground between these two college towns.

DAY ONE
corvallis
There is a weak system rotating into the Pacific Northwest, and is taking with it a good deal of cold air. There will probably be rain in Corvallis and north to Portland, but when we take an easterly turn we will see a rise in elevation and a change to snow not far from I-5. Owing to the geography of the region, it won’t be constantly snowing as we head east, but our best chances will be as we start to head uphill at the various ridge lines in the area. The chance for snow will pick up as we hit the Sun Valley in Idaho, so our stop for the night in Mountain Home will be well timed.

DAY TWO
The snow won’t really let up on Sunday either. The flurry activity will be persistent over southern Idaho, but a big band of snow will set up over northern Utah and far southern Idaho. A band will develop and fall as we make a southerly turn at the I-86 split, which will lead to some whiteout conditions and even a rogue stroke of lightning. Light rain is possible in the Great Salt Lake Basin, but in the Wasatch, we may again see some flurries. The snow will build north and not east in our last couple of hours of driving, so it will be cloudy, windy but also dry when we stop for the night in Hadsell, Wyoming, a few miles from Rawlins.

DAY THREE
The low is moving through the Rockies and will deepen on the lee side of the the Rockies, with some warm air pumping north into the Dakotas. Before that, however, we will have to contend with some snow and wind in the Wyoming Rockies. It will end around Cheyenne, and the drive through Nebraska will be ominous looking, but dry. The day ends in Bradshaw, Nebraska, just ahead of York.

DAY FOUR
Our area of low pressure is going to do an excellent job of pumping moisture north. The drizzle will pick up throughout Iowa as we begin the day and with it, some low clouds and fog might make things challenging. We will get into Ames before anything gets really nasty, thanks to the short day, but bear in mind, it does look like Ames will be, in fact, really nasty at some point early next week.
ames