Tag Archives: Boulder

Hit or miss

I didn’t really note it at the time, but there was a lot of dissension among the forecasters for Boulder. There is no readily available extracted data for Boulder, and it’s in the mountains, which always plays tricks with the forecasts. Usually, we see forecasts cluster around Particular value, but not this time. The NWS was too cool with their forecast highs, while Victoria-Weather was way too warm with the overnight lows. Somehow, WeatherNation was both. The other three were contenders. The Weather Channel and Weatherbug would have run away with the forecast were it not for the thunderstorms they didn’t forecast on Tuesday. Accuweather added the threat for storms on Wednesday, and those did not occur, otherwise they would have snuck ahead. Instead, TWC and Weatherbug did indeed tie for the top spot.

Actuals: Tuesday – Thunderstorms reported, precip not measured, high 82, Low 51
Wednesday – High 86, Low 55

Grade: B

Boulder, Colorado to Greenville, North Carolina

Day three of 4 road trips in a row. This particular excursion will last 3 1/2 days as we head west to east through the Plains and eventually across the Appalachians. Our average speed will be about 65, and we will cover approximately 519.7 miles on days one through three, leaving the rest of the drive for Saturday to account for the remainder of the 1773 miles. Ladies and gents, on your marks, get set, GO

DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Boulder
The forecast models are looking a lot like summer, that’s for sure. There will be isolated showers and storms across the central Rockies, the first whispers of the seasonal typhoon, while the eastern third of the country is seeing scattered instability showers and storms. In the middle, expect clear skies, as activity will develop in the mountains long after we depart Boulder and the instability thunderstorms will remain east of Kansas, and we won’t even make it to Topeka. The day will end in Riley County, Kansas, where it will be hot, yes, but also dry.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
Model guidance is bad right now. It knows there will be some thunderstorms, but it isn’t doing a great job of articulating exactly where the storms will be coming, or where the activity will be the most intense. It won’t be comprehensively stormy across the region we are driving through, as you may be led to believe. In fact, I would suspect that it will be clearer than it is rainy. Still, there will be a chance of an isolated thunderstorm, of which a few will bring torrential rain, generally east from Columbia, Missouri, east through Lynville, Indiana, which is our Thursday night destination. I think the early part of the day will be dry, thanks in part to the lack of forcing, but also because it will be too early in the day. Like I said, our Thursday destination will be Lynville, northeast of Evansville.

DAY THREE (Friday)
The NAM is usually less reliable with bigger systems, but can be trusted a little bit more in situations such as the one we find ourselves in. It does better with scattered thunderstorms that aren’t necessarily associated with an organized synoptic system. If it is to be believed, and there is really not a good reason not to believe it, we will be dry all the way from Lynville to Mount Airy, North Carolina, up on the Virginia border. It seems more likely that we will see a stray shower at some point, but it will be significantly drier than Thursday was. Chances will increase as the day goes on, save for West Virginia, where I think our ascent into the Appalachians will bring a greater opportunity for an isolated thunderstorm. Again, Friday night will be spent in Mount Airy.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
There is a legitimate trend across all guidance for some moisture suppression in North Carolina by Saturday. A system developing in the upper levels over North Carolina will really come together over the North Atlantic, and will cycle drier air southward. Even the GFS has the route through the Tar Heel State completely VFR. We’ll see. It’s so far out, and the low is fairly disorganized and weak that there isn’t much confidence in the forecast, but there is a great deal of optimism for a great arrival in Greenville.
GreenvilleNC

Brownsville, Texas to Boulder, Colorado

We’re going to get moving away from the city of Brownsville and head towards the mountains of Colorado. It’s a 2 1/2 day trek, which will proceed at a pace of 63.2mph, or 506 miles a day for those first two days. Typically, these would be some dusty roads, but I don’t think that will be the case as we head through the Plains!

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Brownsville
While there has been quite a bit of rainfall over Texas, it is starting to pivot a little bit to the east. There will be some clouds and maybe a few showers as we begin the day driving north to Corpus Christi and northwest to San Antonio. The bulk of the activity through the day will be in the center and eastern part of the state, but out route will take us essentially on the back edge of precipitation. This will mean some scattered showers, and in such an arid environment, the precip field may not be as vast as the models suggest. The day will carry us to Bronte, Texas, which is between San Angelelo and Abilene, and it will probably be dry, but that won’t be a given. Guidance certainly doesn’t think so.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
Aha, here is the dry weather we have been looking for. There is a little bit of an upper level trough that will help usher the rain from West Texas. Another lee trough will set up on Wednesday, and there may be an isolated shower along the Front Range by afternoon, but our day will take us to Wiley, which isn’t quite there yet.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
The lee troughing will continue unchecked unless we do something about it. Of course, we literally cannot do anything about it. As we get to I-25 and head north, expect a pretty good chance at spotty showers the rest of the way into Boulder.
Boulder

Boulder, Colorado

The town named after a rock. Off to Boulder we go for a little bit of forecast fun.

At 636PM, MT, Boulder was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with light rain and overcast conditions. With an upper level ridge in place with no sign of moving, the shower activity was decidedly the result of lee troughing.
There really is no sign of a significant change to the overall pattern in Colorado, On shore flow will feed widespread convection over the Plains, with a few monsoonal showers and storms over the highest peaks of the Rockies. For the most part, things will be fine in Bouldder, but for an isolated shower in the afternoon both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Sunny with some afternoon showers, High 86, Low 55
Wednesday – Isolated showers, therwise mostly sunny, High 87, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 83, Low 53
Wednesday – Mostly Sunny High 86, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Sun followed by some clouds High 83, Low 50
Wednesday – Partly sunny and very warm (evening storms) High 89, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 51
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 83, Low 52
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 84, Low 66
Wednesday, Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers Hgh 82, Low 64

This should be a very interesting verification. Rain will probably crop up, and if it does, it will be very impactful to the temperature. Also, how does Boulder, the home of NCAR, not have MOS data?
Boulder

Jackpot!

Boulder played the weather slots on Friday, and hit all 7s. Everything came pouring out of the cash slot. Rain, snow, thunderstorms, everything. And then on Saturday, temperatures spiked back up into the 60s! Unfortunately, we don’t know exactly how much rain they got in Boulder, but we do know the rains came. And the snow. With a little bit of thunder. Accuweather, The Weather Channel and Victoria-Weather came to the top spot via their own routes, but ended up there anyways.
Actuals: Friday – Rain, snow and thunderstorms reported but not measured, High 48, Low 32
Saturday – High 61, Low 30

Grade: B

Boulder, Colorado

Our forecast today takes us to a part of the world that could use a break from rough weather, after heavy rain led to destructive and devastating flash flooding. Will they get any respite?

At 918AM, MT, Boulder was reporting sunny skies with a temperature of 50 degrees. To the north, just across the border in Wyoming, there were winter storm warnings in preparation for a strong system gearing up in the northern Rockies. The strength of the trough as well as its depth and the cold air behind it indicate that this will indeed be the first significant winter storm of the year.
The question for our purposes is whether or not that significant weather will reach into Boulder or not. Right now, model guidance suggests that when the low comes into phase over the northern High Plains this evening, the bulk of the moisture will be well north of Boulder, and wrapped back into the Rockies west of town. The moisture looks to be expended n the high terrain thanks to a sharp westerly flow, but wind will be very strong from the south in Boulder through tomorrow morning. There may be a bit of precipitation tomorrow as the system shifts east to the Upper Midwest. Warmer air will return very quickly by Saturday as the system shifts swiftly away. The good news is, snow melt is slower and steadier, so even though snowfall will be measured in feet, flooding will not be a concern.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, very windy and with a chance for some showers early, High 48, Low 33
Saturday – Cool early, then sunny, High 56, Low 32.

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers / Wind High 48, Low 32
Saturday – Partly Cloudy High 53, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a little snow, mixed with rain early, up to 1″; breezy and much colder High 45, Low 31
Saturday – Warmer with plenty of sunshine High 59, Low 21

NWS: Tomorrow – Snow before noon, then a chance of rain and snow High 42, Low 30
Saturday – Sunny High 52, Low 28

WB: Tomorrow – Rain and snow in the morning…then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to one inch. High 46, Low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 55, Low 28

Perhaps it’s because of the lockout, but it is strange to see Weatherbug so divergent from the Weather Service. Also, Weatherbug is the only outlet that has a day time high tomorrow. Everyone else is going with a midnight high. Winter is going to introduce itself this weekend to this part of the world, so I hope they are ready.
Boulder

Spring right around the corner

The snow was over in Boulder before the forecast period began, which allowed for clearing skies and dry weather. So, Boulder started with a cold temperature Wednesday morning, was able to warm up admirably because of clear skies during the day, but then cooled off rapidly again on Thursday night But still, the temperature was almost 30 two days in a row (and for that matter, they are almost there again today!), so spring can’t be too far out, right? Weatherbug nabbed the top forecast in Boulder.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 24, Low 1
Thursday, High 28, Low 1

Grade: C

Boulder, Colorado

Boulder is colder than they usually get right now. Hopefully there is a warm up on the way.

At 1255PM, MT, Boulder was reporting a temperature of 6 degrees with overcast skies and fog. Light upsloping wind was helping to create some widespread snow across the Denver area and along the Front Range as far south as Colorado Springs. A digging trough has generated an area of low pressure over New Mexico and a ranging boundary bisecting the middle of the country and was generating the cooling easterly flow for northern Colorado.
The parent trough is rounded over Arizona and New Mexico and is fairly longwaved. The upper level wave will not shift too far east, but the north-south component will ride the Rockies for the period. Expect the result to be an invasion of surface high pressure, a small degree of downslope and plenty of sunshine.
Tomorrow – Clearing and warmer, High 25, Low 1
Thursday – Sunny, High 38, Low 11

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 23, Low 0
Thursday – Plenty of sun High 32, Low 9

AW: Tomorrow – Cold with some clouds, then sunshine High 21, Low -2
Thursday – Not as cold with plenty of sunshine High 40, Low 8

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 24, Low -7
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 33, Low 2

WB: Tomorrow -Mostly sunny (Early AM flurries) High, 24, Low -6
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 34, Low 1

This is an intimidating forecast. In the mountains, not much by way of model guidance. My instinct was warmer than what the others went with. Here is a look at the snow in the area now