When forecasting for Santa Barbara, I speculated that the Weather Service knew something that the rest of us didn’t, as their high temperature forecast was several degrees warmer than the rest of the group. I’m here to say that the NWS had no inside information. Temperatures along the coast weren’t quite the furnace that they were inland, where fires have exploded in the last couple of days. That’s good news for Santa Barbara, but bad news for the Weather Service’s forecast. Accuweather had a very good forecast and won the day, which made the NWS look even worse. Actuals: September 1st, High 72, Low 58 September 2nd, High 73, Low 54
Hello! We’re back with another forecast, and this time, we’re off to Santa Barbara on the California coast, upstream from Los Angeles. It’s a nice town, by all accounts. Will the weather be just as nice?
At 753PM, PT, Santa Barbara was reporting clear skies with an onshore breeze and a temperature of 62 degrees. It seems like a a prime night for fog and low clouds rolling in, leaving to a dreary morning. Indeed, satellite shows the marine layer settling in already from Lompoc to the Bay Area. An area of low pressure inland is helping to drive the onshore flow, though that is expected to pivot eastward through the period which will leave the flow to more local forces. Not much change in pattern is expected along the coast in Santa Barbara. Tomorrow – Morning clouds and fog, clearing by mid morning, then sunny, High 71, Low 57 Wednesday – Clouds and fog continue, but less than Tuesday, High 75, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 70, Low 58 Wednesday – Mainly sunny. High 73, Low 58
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 72, Low 57 Wednesday – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, mostly sunny and nice High 72, Low 57
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 78, Low 62 Wednesday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 79, Low 62
WB: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog in the morning, High 70, Low 59 Wednesday – Low clouds and fog in the morning, High 70, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 60 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 60
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 71, Low 56 Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 75, Low 59
Look at the temperatures. Do you think the Weather Service knows something? Here is a look at the satellite showing the clouds creeping up the coast.
I used the current fire map for the LA area as the image in the forecast for Santa Barbara to give a little perspective on the threat in the region as we started to look at the forecast. Even a few days later, the picture is wholly different, with some fires contained, some extinguished and more underway. Santa Barbara did seem to avert the worst of the fires this go around, though there was smoke reported most of the day on Friday as the Getty blaze raged and coupled with easterly winds. Victoria-Weather and Accuweather combined to net the top forecast in the area. Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 38 Saturday – High 78, Low 40
Unlike our last trip to the Golden State, Santa Barbara is a little bit closer to the fires in Southern California, particularly the recently ignited Easy Fire, burning between Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley. What are we looking at for the next couple of days? Respite?
At 753AM, ET, Santa Barbara was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 39 degrees. Shielded by the Coastal Range, and seeing as it is fairly early in the morning, Santa Barbara was shielded from any blustery winds from the interior of the state. In the next couple of days, a coastal trough is forecast to develop and should finally blunt the winds from the east. A little bit of latent moisture may even turn into a Marine Layer, sneaking up the coast by Saturday morning, making for a cool damp beginning to the weekend. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some smoky haze, High 74, Low 40 Saturday – Early fog, then clearing and hazy High 73, Low 42
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 77, Low 46 Saturday – Sunny. High 76, Low 48
AW: Tomorrow – Delightful with plenty of sunshine High 75, Low 40 Saturday – Delightful with plenty of sunshine High 74, Low 42
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 80, Low 44 Saturday – Sunny High 77, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 73, Low 42 Saturday – Sunny High 73, Lw 46
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny HIgh 80, Low 44 Saturday – Sunny High 77, Low 46
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 58 Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 61
There are some wild differences on the low temperature forecasts in Santa Barbara. Are these even all the same city? A look at the map shows that the fire danger is a little removed from Santa Barbara, but it should still be monitored.