Tag Archives: San Diego

Starting in San Diego

The first verification of the new year is actually for the last forecast of the old year. Thanks to a cranky baby, I worked on the forecast in the very wee hours of New Year’s Eve, but fortunately, the forecast was for San Diego which is, under most circumstances, a softball forecast. Indeed, that was the case for the first couple of days this year (though things are surely a bit more challenging for forecasters tonight), and the Weather Service and Weatherbug snatched top notch forecasts for the chilly but dry couple of days in the town that calls itself America’s Finest City. 
Actuals: Tuesday, High 61, Low 45
Wednesday – High 62, Low 41

Grade A – C

San Diego, California

Good morning! Did you know that I have 6 month old twins? Let that be all the explanation you need for my being up and forecasting at 5AM local time. For context, there is a baby (finally) asleep on my chest as I forecast.

At 2AM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A disturbance at the base of a sharp trough over the Great Basin was producing a few clouds in the area, but the aggressive offshore flow at the surface and aloft was doing a great job of decimating the marine layer.
The surface feature will pull clearer air into San Diego by mid-morning on Tuesday, while the weakening inflow to the jet will mean the disturbed weather will not be reinforced, but neither will the marine layer return.
Tomorrow – Morning clouds, the mostly sunny, High 64, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny High 62, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 61, Low 43
Wednesday – Sunny High 61, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 63, Low 41
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine High 62, Low 38

NWS: Tomorow – Sunny High 62, Low 45
Wednesday – Sunny High 63, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 59, Low 41
Wednesday – Sunny High 60, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny High 62, Low 45
Wednesday – Sunny High 63, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until morning. High 58, Low 43
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 57, Low 41

You know, most residents of San Diego would think this to be a bummer of a forecast, as those low temperatures may flirt with record territory, especially if Weatherbug gets their way. Alas, even a bad forecast in San Diego is pretty good. Happy New Year, everyone! 

Oceanside oasis

The news through the middle of last week was the oppressive heat and humidity that smothered the desert Southwest. Even if you got just inside the Coastal Range in southern California, temperatures were climbing into the 120s. Along the coast, in San Diego, things were significantly more tolerable. It only reached the low to mid 70s on Wednesday and Thursday, during our forecast period, a solid 50 degrees cooler than other parts of the state. The Weather Channel had the top forecast, navigating the completely isolated weather patterns of the coast.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 74, Low 65
Thursday – High 71, Low 62

Grade B-D

San Diego, California

It’s a hot one out west. Fortunately, San Diego is right up on the coast where perhaps it will be a little bit cooler.

At 826PM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cool wind off the south Pacific was bringing in a shallow marine layer that was als being seen as far north as Carlsbad. It was in stark contrast to areas inland, which were still as warm as 110 degrees near the Salton Sea.
High pressure in the southern Rockies is the one of the typical features that contribute to suffocating southwestern heat waves, and there is a really good ridge out there right now. Ridging jet flow and a broad, stalled trough in the eastern US, as well as Tropical Storm Cindy will slow down any breakdown of the ridge for the foreseeable future.
Tomorrow – Marine layer clouds early, late, then sunny, High 79, Low 64
Thursday – Early clouds and fog, High 76, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon High 78, Low 65
Thursday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 72, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog giving way to some sun High 78, Low 66
Thursday – Low clouds and fog giving way to some sun High 72, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 79, Low 63
Thursday – Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 75, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, Becoming mostly sunny. Patchy dense fog in the morning, High 82, Low 65
Thursday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 77, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 63
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 80, Low 67
Thursday – Partly cloudy until afternoon.High 78, Low 66

So not too bad on the coast, mostly because of the marine layer, which you can see on the satellite below.

Seaside showers

The upper level trough that will be the culprit for the late week blizzard and severe weather outbreak over the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys that is getting underway right now moved through California to begin the month of April. Even on the sunny beaches of southern California, they saw some rain out of this system, including over a quarter of an inch reported in San Diego. Temperatures were more variable than many had anticipated, but not Accuweather, who had the best forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – .05 inches o rain, High 66, Low 56
Wednesday – .22 inches of rain, High 65, low 55

Grade: A

San Diego, California

We are off to one of the most beautiful cities in the America for our forecast. They hosted opening night for the baseball season last night. What do the next few days have in store?

At 751AM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies. There are a few clouds on satellite around San Diego, but there is not a marine layer today. Generally speaking, flow is off shore across the San Diego area. The region the bears watching is a spot of showers moving into northern California.
The rain is associated with a Pacific low within an upper level trough moving into the coast. It is fairly isolated from the rest of the upper level flow, and the trough is going to slow down significantly upon arriving on the coast. The initial cold front will move into town by tomorrow morning, bringing only clouds and some very light rain. The surface low will continue to spin over Northern California, and westerly flow will carry low level moisture into San Diego on Wednesday morning as well.
Tomorrow – Overcast with some light showers. High 65, Low 53
Wednesday – Clouds, morning haze and light rain remain possible, High 63, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Showers High 62, Low 58
Wednesday – Showers, High 61, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable clouds and breezy; morning rain, then a couple of showers possible in the afternoon High 64, Low 56
Wednesday – Clouds and breaks of sun; breezy with a couple of showers High 63, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly before 11am High 63, Low 57
Wednesday – Showers likely, mainly before 11am. High 61, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Showers in the morning…then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 63, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the morning… Then partly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. High 61, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Showers High 63, Low 57
Wednesday – Numerous Showers High 61, Low 55

I like how dramatic this forecast is. It makes it sounds so rainy! I bet they get maybe .10″. If that. Here is a pretty quiet satellite image.
San Diego

A 6 horse race

For the first time, we have a verification including all 6 outlets we monitor here at Victoria Weather. WeatherNation entered the forecasting fold, and while they weren’t bad, they couldn’t approach The Weather Channel’s forecast in San Diego. An area of low pressure was sliding right down the coast towards San Diego, but it didn’t arrive as soon as most anticipated, and there were no reports on Sunday. The weather turned on Monday, with almost a tenth of an inch of rain in the drought stricken town. The Weather Channel and Accuweather had the only correct precipitation forecasts. They were also the top two temperature forecasts, with TWC winning the first forecast of February.
Actuals: Sunday – High 62, Low 48
Monday – .09 inches of rain, High 62, Low 52

Grade: A

San Diego, California

Today is the day the calendar ticks over to February, and also the day that we will begin using WeatherNation as one of the sites we verify against. With the kerfuffle between DirecTV and The Weather Channel, the emerging WeatherNation started making headlines, and will now start making appearances here at The Weather Blog. Their forecast will be the 6th one listed, under “WN”. Welcome and good luck!
Hopefully, San Diego will be a fairly easy way to break into the forecast!

At 351PM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with clear skies. A brisk west wind was producing some clouds in the high country east of town, but it was a generally quiet night for southern California, and the ocean to the west was clear of any evident low clouds, to the Marine Layer doesn’t appear to be of significant concern.
Aloft, things are a bit more interesting. A weak upper level trough is going to see stronger flow through it over the next 48 hours. The unusually warm winter that the west has been seeing will take a break over the next 48 hours, and a low pressure center will ride the western leg of the trough south along the California coast. Rain will arrive in the San Diego area late tomorrow night, and will continue into the morning. The 540 thickness line will dip south of San Diego, which in other locations might mean residents should look out for snow. Obviously, this won’t be a concern for San Diego, but is just an indicator of how cold the air mass is. The rain will end by late morning on Monday, and warmer temperatures will return fairly quickly in the afternoon, but the return of nightly haze and clouds seems likely.
Tomorrow – Rain in the evening, High 64, Low 44
Monday – Rain showers early, High 61, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 64, Low 46
Monday – Rain High 61, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun High 61, Low 46
Monday – Periods of sun with a shower possible; cool High 59, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late rain/storms) High 61, Low 48
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 58, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (PM rain) High 61, Low 47
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning…then partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 57, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Scattered Showers High 61, Low 46
Monday – Scattered Showers High 57, Low 52

So there you go, WeatherNation makes their debut. Visit them at www.weathernationtv.com. Here is a nice visible satellite, allowing us to investigate more closely the cloud picture. Just some up in the mountains to the east, as you will note, but not much going on off shore.
San Diego


San Diego had a change in flow early on Saturday which meant chilly and Pacific air was redirected inland, and a persistent, thick marine layer became parked over the area for the past two days. Sunny southern California wasn’t so sunny. The temperatures never climbed out of the 60s, either as highs or lows. One outlet, The Weather Channel, had this forecast nailed and won the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 60
Sunday – .01 inches of rain, High 66, Low 62

Grade: A

San Diego, California to Barnstable, Massachusetts

It doesn’t get much longer than this 6 day journey from southern California to Cape Cod. It will be a 3107 mile drive, and we will be able to average a 65.2mph pace, which means our first 5 days will average 521.5 miles. This is going to be a pretty long trip.

San Diego
As we leave tomorrow morning, we will likely be in the midst of some marine layer activity. Patchy fog will be a possibility all the way up the 5 towards LA, but when we get to the eastern side of the San Bernadino Mountains, life will be good. In our wake, drizzle chances will increase in San Diego, but our drive through the desert will be, get this, dry. The day will end in southwestern Utah in the town of Paragonah.

The low developing off of San Francisco Bay is going to move slightly inland, and a southerly flow will give way to the first monsoon day of the Rckies for the Spring just as we are driving through. Rain and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely in the Colorado Rockies, particularly west of the Loveland Pass, where we will spend most of our time on Monday in Colorado. There is a shot at some light rain early in the day along the Wasatch as well, but we won’t spend enough time there for it to be terribly likely, and the rest of Utah will be an arid wasteland. We will call it a night, probably a dry night, in Dumont, Colorado, not long after we get through the Pass.

This malformed wave will try to move out of the Rockies, and after the monstrosities we have seen this winter, it seems odd to think that of all things, THIS system will be producing any weather. But alas, with the advance of warm air, stratiform rain showers will move to cover most of Nebraska and eastern Colorado. We will try to dodge this precipitation throughout the day, and there might even be a rumble of thunder embedded in one of the scattered showers. I find it hard to believe that the wet weather will be problematic or severe. The day will end in Greenwood, Nebraska, which is a few clicks past Lincoln.

The relatively disorganized but active pattern will continue. There is a decent enough chance for rain early in the day, until we reach Iowa, after which point clearing skies and warmer temperatures can be expected. That slow moving trough that is lumbering through the southeast is going to try to meet us in the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Scattered showers will return in Illinois and continue as we stop for the night in Hobart, Indiana. That’s frustrating.

We are between two weak areas of low pressure. There should be enough juice for some clouds, but not enough energy to do anything beyond that. Sure, maybe some drizzle in the morning before the really dense clouds burn off, but it will be gone by the time we set out through northern Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The low that was once a cut off trough and will, by Thursday be an amorphous rain blob, will mosey on into western New York by the time we arrive in Pembroke, which is east of Buffalo.

Almost there! Overnight the remnant trough will hook up with the jet stream again at long last and rocket off to the northeast giving us a mostly clear drive to Barnstable. The models are a little tentative this far out, and there is a lot of green on the forecast maps, but this is attributable to uncertainty. That said, the little slice of America we are driving through on Friday will be one of the best spots in the country for avoiding wet weather. The best bet to get wet is to jump in a sailboat at Hyannisport.