Tag Archives: Philadelphia

Dusted

There were waves of flurries across the Appalachians as the weekend began, but with so much of it attempting to climb over the mountains into Philadelphia, the route was too difficult to reach the city of Brotherly Love. Well, that is, it was too difficult until Saturday evening. It was only a quarter inch of snow, but it still counted in our forecast verification. Only one outlet had the snow forecast perfectly managed, and they, Forecast.io, tied with the National Weather Service, who had a solid temperature forecast.
Actuals – Thursday- High 28, Low 21
Friday – .20 inches of snow, High 26, Low 16

Grade: B – C

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to Bend, Oregon

We are crisscrossing the country these next two days. Our journey today takes us westbound on a 5 day, 2752 mile trip. The last day will be a little bit longer than the rest, with those 4 days will cover 537 miles thanks to a pace of 67.1 miles. That’s a long trip, but I think it should be very fun.

DAY ONE (Friday)
philadelphia
A broad upper level trough over the Great Lakes will start to find itself later in the day tomorrow, which is bad news for us. Cold air will already be in place as we leave Philly, and make our way into the Appalachians, but as we begin to reach the western faces of those hills, things are going to start going downhill. Well, I mean, the roads will actually literally be downhill, but also, conditions. You know what I mean. From the Pittsburgh area into Ohio, expect the threat for snow to increase and persist all the way to Toledo. It should be light fluff, so the roads won’t be slick, but visibility may be a bit sketchy. Toledo is indeed our stopping point on Friday night.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
As the upper level trough begins to shift to the east, the backfilling northwest flow will produce some lake effect snow. This will really only be relevant over northern Indiana from about South Bend to LaPorte. The chilly air will continue all the way to Geneseo, near the Quad Cities, but the threat for snow will just about be done for the day by the time we hit Chicago. It won’t be nearly as snowy on Saturday as it was on Friday.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
The next clipper will be moving into the northern Plains, oh, at about the exact same time as we will. There is pretty good consensus that we will see snow as we start our day in Geneseo. Moderate snow showers will be possible through Des Moines, which will definitely keep things slow for the first couple hours of the day. Guidance diverges from there. Let’s just say there is a chance for some snow between Des Moines and Omaha, but it will likely be fairly sparse if we see anything at all. Best of all, this is a warm front. Any snow that falls will be wet and may not last long on the ground if it falls at all. The forecast becomes clearer as we trek across Nebraska, We’ll end up in the mostly cloudy Panhandle, stopping at the tiny backwater of Brownson.

DAY FOUR (Monday)
There will be some mountain snow across Wyoming overnight Sunday into Monday, but it will wither away by the time we hit the road. In fact, through most of the day, we should be free and easy, with a pretty manageable trip into the Rockies. There could be some additional snow in southeastern Iowa, but our route will wrap around it into Malta, free of any of the snow that was so close to us through much of this route.

DAY FIVE (Tuesday)
The last day of the trip might be the best one of them all. A ridge will be setting up over the Pacific Northwest, which means great weather through Idaho and the back roads of Oregon. It will be unseasonably warm, and a great way to end a long trip.
Bend

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Philly has been through the ringer lately. How will it look through the rest of this week?

At 954PM, ET, Philadelphia was reporting a temperature of 31 degrees with mostly cloudy skies with a brisk west wind. We have returned a standing wave pattern, with a dramatic ridge out west and a broad trough in the east. The broader flow is undermined by a sharper trough in the Great Lakes and a weak jet along the Mexican border, ensuring an active pattern despite wavelengths that would seem to inhibit progression.
The wind today is a function of the undercutting trough merging with the broader one off the coast. There is a deep low moving towards the Canadian Maritimes, while there is also a brisk northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes, filling the undercutting trough with Appalachian snow and brining chilly air into the mid-Atlantic. The surface system will shift northeast and away from Philadelphia, leading to a couple of dry days to finish the week, however the undercutting jet will be reinvigorating Friday evening, and will begin the process of inducing cyclogenesis off the Carolina Coast. The end of the day Friday will see the nascent system pulling moisture from the Appalachians southeastward towards Philadelphia. It shouldn’t be able to reach the ground in Philadelphia, but expect clouds to increase late.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 27, Low 21
Friday – Increasing clouds late High 28, Low 16

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming cloudy and windy later in the day, High 29, Low 22
Friday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 31, Low 18

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy and colder with a snow shower High 27, Low 20
Friday – Turning cloudy and cold High 30, Low 17

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, Early snow flurries High 28, Low 20
Friday – Increasing clouds, late snow High 29, Low 15

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, Isolated snow showers in the afternoon, High 28, Low 20
Friday – Partly sunny, High 29, Low 15

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 28, Low 19
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 30, Low 14

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until evening. High 29, Low 21,
Friday – Flurries starting in the evening. High 31, Low 17

Pretty up in the air on snowfall to end the week in Philly. Take a look at the satellite with heavier activity off shore and some lower clouds across the eastern Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic.
Philadelphia

High Pressure and Low Scores

The high pressure that was supposed to push down into Philadelphia and keep ’em dry for the last couple days… came in exactly as expected! Temperatures warmed up on Wednesday, and with an increased diurnal thanks to mostly clear skies overnight. Vic-WX and WeatherNation tied for the win for the 2nd straight forecast, this time with a measely 3 points each.

Tuesday: High 75, Low 63.
Wednesday: High 80, Low 59.
Forecast Grade: A

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

This evening is all about Delaware Bay, apparently. Let’s see what’s going on in the city of Brotherly love.

At 1154PM, ET, Philadelphia was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with overcast skies. There was rain reported from Washington south through the Carolinas in conjunction with a weak circulation embedded within the Gulf Stream. Some of the shower activity is pressing north into the Alleghenies, but it appears that mid level clouds are the primary concern in Philadelphia.
The primary thing that will change the pattern in Philadelphia is a burgeoning ridge of high pressure om Ontario. The surface ridge will sink southeast and suppress the mositure associated with the offshore low. The low will tighten up, allowing high pressure to be augmented in eastern Pennsylvania through midweek, and preventing even the midlayer clouds the region is seeing tonight.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 63
Wednesday – Clearing and warmer, High 79, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 76, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy in the morning; clouds giving way to some sun in the afternoon High 74, Low 62
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 81 Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 59
Wednesday – Sunny High 81, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 57
Wednesday – Sunny High 82, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy High 75, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly Sunny, High 81, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 75, Low 59
Wednesday – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 81, Low 56

A few splashes of rain to the west, but Philadelphia has nothing to fear.
Philadelphia

Not as scorching

The first real heatwave of the summer was expected over the weekend and for the beginning of this week in the Mid-Atlantic. It didn’t quite reach the expectations of many forecasters on over the weekend in Philadelphia, with temperatures capping at 84 on Sunday and only 80 on Monday. Victoria-Weather correctly anticipated interference with the warm up by nostly cloudy skies, but didn’t correctly envision the rain that would temper those highs. Because of this, the National Weather Service, who was a little warmer with the forecast, ended up claiming the top spot.
Actuals: Saturday, .03 inches of rain/thunderstorms, High 80, Low 60
Sunday – Trace of rain, High 84, Low 67

Grade B-D

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

It’s a busy weekend in the plains, but that doesn’t mean we will ignore what’s going on elsewhere in the country.

At 1254PM, ET, Philadelphia was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 80 degrees. A thermal ridge across the east coast promised that the warmth already seen in Philadelphia would continue through the day. The upper level ridge is expected to be a permanent fixture through the weekend.
A handful of systems will conspire to bring Philadelphia some showers on Mother’s Day. Subtropical Storm Ana is working towards the Carolina coast, and will contribute an easterly flow to the mid-Atlantic that will potentially lead to an isolated shower or storm tomorrow afternoon. A system moving towards Labrador is extending a cold front towards New England. It will struggle to bring enough moisture to climb over the mountains, but Sunday does look significantly cloudier than Saturday. It will also work to suppress Ana’s northerly progression, so despite being surrounded, by precipitation, Philadelphia should stay dry on Mother’s Day.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunder, High 82, Low 61
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with clouds giving way to sun High 82, Low 60
Sunday – Clouds giving way to some sun and very warm High 87, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, Hugh 83, Low 61
Sunday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 85, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning…Then becoming partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. (late drizzle) High 83, Low 61
Sunday – Partly sunny. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning. High 85, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog High 84, Low 61
Sunday – Partly Cloudy with Areas of Light Drizzle HIgh 86, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 82, Low 58
Sunday – Foggy in the morning. High 89, Low 61

Here is a look at the satellite, which shows Ana off the Carolina coast
Philadelphia

Backwards trends

The thought was that temperatures would be on the upswing as Monday turned to Tuesday in Philadelphia. It wouldn’t be by much, as there would be some high clouds that rolled into the City of Brotherly Love. Those high clouds were only supposed to mitigate the warm up, but as it turned out, there was no warm up. Temperatures actually dropped from Monday to Tuesday absent the expected solar energy. That meant that forecasters with the least optimistic warm up, as well as a warm Tuesday low were generally rewarded. The Weather Channel got the victory, however, because they were perfect on Monday.
Actuals: Monday – High 43, Low 27
Tuesday – High 40, Low 31

Grade: B-C

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Away we go to the city of brotherly love. Summer has to be right around the corner eventually, right?

At 754PM, ET, Philadelphia was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with clear skies. The most prominent feature is a weakly organized wave moving through the southeastern US, while there was a departing system taking its time leaving New England. In between, an area of high pressure centered over Ontario nosed a portion towards Delaware Bay.
There is a weak vorticity maximum rotating through Minnesota at the base of the ridge. This will be propelled eastwards towards southeastern PA, but will waste itself in the Appalachians. There will be a few high clouds that find their way into Philly, however, robbing another chance at even the slightest of warmups.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 37, low 26
Tuesday- Mostly cloudy, High 41, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 43, low 27
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 47, Low 28

AW: Tomorrow – Cold with plenty of sunshine High 42, Low 27
Tuesday – Chilly with plenty of sunshine High 46, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 40, Low 26
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 39, Low 24
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 22

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 41, low 27
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 43, Low 25

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 37, Low 24
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning.High 42, Low 24

Model guidance is trending lower than most outlets. FIO is with me on a cooler forecast. I’m anticipating cooler temperatures because I’m also anticipating more clouds. The thing on the satellite that is most apparent is the activity south of the Mid-Atlantic, which is generally jut a rainmaker.

Lafayette, Indiana to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

We’re going to head from my collegiate homeland to the City of Brotherly Love on a day and a half excursion. The two towns are 706 miles apart, approximately, and we will cover that ground at a pace of about 63.6mph, which puts us at about 508.8 miles on Tuesday’s drive. There is ground to cover, so let’s be on our way.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
lafayette
We will be at the back end of a surface area of low pressure easing through the Great Lakes at the beginning of our day Tuesday. Actually, with our pace and the pace of the surface trough, we will be in that same position pretty much throughout the day. The chance for rain will increase as we drive through Ohio, but mostly cloudy skies with spotty drizzle should be expected through Indiana and Ohio. It’s just that the frequency of that drizzle will pick up in eastern Ohio. The topography of Pennsylvania will mean much more rain on the western exposures of the Appalachians, right up until we reach Bedford in southern PA for our break in the action.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
We have just a little bit of driving to do on Wednesday across southeastern Pennsylvania. As long as we take our time with breakfast and wait until about 10 AM to hit the road on Wednesday morning, we should be just fine between Bedford and Philadelphia, with only a splash of rain here and there, like we will see on Tuesday. If we leave early, we might arrive in Philadelphia in the midst of a monsoon.
philadelphia