Where the wind and forecasts blow
Posted by Ryan
Its been a pretty well established trend with the cold front moving through the center of the country. The ceilings behind the front have lingered for almost a full day after it's passage. That was the case in Omaha, where temperatures refused to fall off at night, despite 45-50mph winds ushering in cold air. The temperatures remained buoyed, much warmer than those who called for a rapid cool down, allowing those (Weatherbug and the Weather Channel) who have incomplete hourly forecasts to somehow manage to secure top forecasts. Despite all the moisture bringing in the clouds, there was very little rain, only a few drops late on Turkey Day. Weatherbug snuck out with the top forecast, but they didn't have much competition.
Thursday - .05 inches of rain, High 58, Low 42
Friday - High 51, Low 38
Grade: C
Omaha, Nebraska to Columbus, Indiana
Posted by Anthony
Today we embark on a 654-mile trip through every state in the US that starts with an I that doesn't touch another country! I know, that's a bit of a stretch, but hey, going through 3 "I" states in one day is still impressive! I wonder if Sesame Street would like to sponsor today's road trip... Oh well, off we go! Let's try and get this done in one day, shall we?
As stated in our my forecast for Columbus, a cold front will be making its way through Illinois and Indiana throughout the day today, kicking up some rather heady winds in its' wake. Luckily, the wind will be coming from the northwest as we travel east from Omaha to the Quad Cities, so that will help us along some. Also, outside of some light scattered showers on the backside of the system, it should be dry as we make our way into Illinois. Shortly after we pass the Quad Cities, however, we'll finally catch up to the rain and it will slow us down a bit. While the rain could be briefly heavy at times, the total width of the rainfall shouldn't be too terribly wide, and should only take us a couple hours to make it through the heaviest of the activity. As we emerge into Eastern Illinois by mid-afternoon, we should be out of the woods and while it will remain cloudy, it will at least be dry. Southwesterly winds will be found ahead of the front and be a good 20 degrees warmer than when we were in Iowa, so that will be slightly more pleasant. The rest of our jaunt past Indianapolis into Columbus will be rather uneventful.
Omaha, Nebraska
Posted by Ryan
Happy Turkey day, everyone! Let's get to a forecast, shall we?
At 652PM, CT, Omaha was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 60 degrees. The Missouri Valley was at the back edge of a ridge that was parked over the southeast. A sharp trough over the Rockies was prepared to move quickly through the center of the country.
The system has been unable to tap into much moisture so far, and despite the seasonal strength of the system, it isn't presently touching off any showers or storms. The system will finally begin drawing moisture late tomorrow, but only after the front is through Omaha. Some isolated showers may wrap around the low, as it will develop rapidly Friday night into Saturday, and an isolated shower or flurry may be possible Friday night or Saturday morning.
Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy and becoming chilly, with a stray drop or flake late. High 59, Low 36
Saturday - Rain snow mix early, but generally mostly cloudy with wind, High 40, Low 26
TWC: Tomorrow - Overcast High 61, Low 45
Saturday - Windy with a few snow showers developing later in the day. High 52, Low 38
AW: Tomorrow - Rather cloudy High 58, Low 38
Saturday - Winds gusting past 50 mph and cooler with clouds giving way to some sun High 42, Low 25
NWS: Tomorrow - Partly sunny (rain before midnight) High 59, Low 43
Saturday - A chance of flurries before noon. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny,High 48, Low 32
WB: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy (showers in the evening) High 59, Low 40
Saturday - Partly cloudy. Windy...colder. Chance of flurries High 48, Low 36
I obviously foresee the system moving through the area a bit faster than other outlets, hence my cooler high on Saturday, and chace for flurries already on Friday. Satellite shows a pretty cloudy system.
Frontogenesis
Posted by Ryan
Yes, as expected over the past couple of days, we saw the development of a front across Nebraska. It initially induced some warmer temperatures for Omaha, which someone (V-W) correctly anticipated. It also didn't quite pivot through Omaha, and didn't until this morning, which Weatherbug and the Weather Service correctly anticipated. Omaha did see rain each day of the forecast period (though it was sneaky, coming over the midnight hour), which eventually awarded the top forecast to the NWS and Weatherbug (though V-W did, in fact, nail the precip forecast... we got 3rd)
Actuals: Sunday - .05 inches of rain in a thunderstorms High 88, Low 68
Monday .17 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 86, Low 69
Grade: B
Morristown, Tennessee to Omaha, Nebraska
Posted by Ryan
This is the second road trip in a row that will take us to Nebraska. That's unusual. It's another two day journey, covering about 968 miles. Our pace will be a disappointing 63.7mph (disappointing when compared to the 67 we got on the last trip. Our first day, then, will see 510 miles tick by on the odometer. It's time to be on our way.
DAY ONE
It's something of a mess across the country where it concerns the weather. Southerly Gulf air has been able to make it's way as far north as the Tennessee before it is getting wrung out over the Ohio Valley. Through most of the day tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility across Tennessee, particularly east of Clarksville, but still, this will include a good two or three hours of our travel, including the drive through our largest metropolitan area of the day, Nashville. The threat for rain will lessen in Kentucky and southern Illinois, and the threat for thunderstorms will be gone almost entirely. Instead, our arrival into Lebanon, Illinois, on the eastern fringe of the St. Louis metropolitan area will be met with chances for some light, popcorn rain showers.
DAY TWO
Models indicate a squall line developing late in the night along the Missouri river north of Kansas City. These MCS's can be fairly fickle, but I think the track will be the further north, faster of two tracks being indicated, which will mean a beeline from near St. Joseph, Missouri due east to just north of where we are staying in Lebanon, and into Illinois by the time we will be departing. This will certainly mean some showers and storms for the drive early, and lingering post-squall showers the rest of the way to Omaha, but it will certainly be better than it could have been. The other option would be for the storms to angle southeast and head for the eastern Kansas City metro after midday, about the time we would arrive. That would be a nightmare. Instead, I think the showers will be moderate until we are in Omaha (though a weak cold front could make it a little more interesting after we arrive).
Omaha, Nebraska
Posted by Ryan
Our Nebraska week is on once more. Off to the state's largest city.
At 1052AM, CT, Omaha was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. Low clouds were still burning off just to the south of Omaha. The moisture in the atmosphere is on the verge of moving out. Dew points away from the Missouri are 5-10 degrees lower than they are in Omaha.
The next two days will be marked by a strengthening of the jet over the center of the country, which will indicate a greater dichotomy in air masses to the north and south. Omaha will be under the jet, which means surface troughing and a persistent threat for rain the next two days as well.
Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with rain, High 89, Low 72
Monday - Cooler, still cloudy, still rainy, High 82, Low 70
TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny skies High 84, Low 72
Monday - Scattered thunderstorms possible. hIgh 81, Low 68
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny and humid High 84, Low 68
Monday - Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 86, Low 66
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm High 85, Low 69
Monday - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 85, Low 67
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny in the morning...then partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 70
Monday - Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85, Low 67
A little less aggressive on the rain than I was across the board. Of course, the temperatures tomorrow could be affected by clouds, but may also be bolstered by strengthening southerly flow and perhaps some compressional heating ahead of a weak boundary. We shall see.
Omaha gets rocked
Posted by Ryan
This has sort of been an Omaha-centric week, what with a forecast, discussion about the squall line that rolled through town on Monday and eventually yesterday's Twitter Tuesday. It's definitely been a wet period for Omaha, but the real story was that line that tore through town on Monday. Winds gusted to nearly 70mph at the airport in the evening, certainly of severe strength. The rain didn't end there, there were a few showers that showed up on Tuesday as well, but the real show was that squall on Monday. There was a three way tie atop the leaderboard from Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel and the Weather Service
Actuals: Monday - .93in of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 65
Tuesday - .32in of rain, High 76, Low 62
Grade: C
Omaha, Nebraska
Posted by Ryan
Yes, this is a little late. Forgive me for enjoying Father's Day a bit too much.
At 152AM, CT, Omaha was reporting a temperature of 73 with thunderstorms. A large complex of storms, some severe, was riding I-80 and shifting of to the north, with one smaller line passing through the Omaha metro. Low pressure over western Kansas was generating the warm front that was bringing the thunderstorms to the area, as well as a cold front that will bring more storms through the morning and early afternoon.
The low is forecast to track towards northern Iowa or southern Minnesota, a slow moving march for the system that will keep the threat for thunderstorms in the forecast all the way through midday on Tuesday.
Today - Thunderstorms, some strong or severe, High 85, Low 68
Tuesday - AM thunderstorms, High 78, Low 67
TWC: Today - Windy with thunderstorms, possibly strong this afternoon. Storms may produce large hail and strong winds High 90, Low 71
Tuesday Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon High 76, Low 65
AW: Today - Clouds and sun; a severe p.m. t-storm; storms can bring downpours, large hail and damaging winds High 85, Low 72
Tuesday - Intervals of clouds and sunshine, breezy and humid with a couple of showers High 80, Low 68
NWS: Tomorrow - A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Mostly sunny High 90, Low 72
Tuesday - A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 76, Low 60
WB: Today - Partly cloudy in the morning...then mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail High 91, Low 72
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Not as warm High 76, Low 66
Too me, 90 sounds like a stretch today, what with how close the cold front is to Omaha already. Anyways, here is a very active radar. (I thought I had saved the radar from the time of observation, but I didn't. This is a little bit later. My B)
Severe system spares Nebraska
Posted by Ryan
Yesterday, a dynamic system moving into the Southern Plains organized and triggered a tornado outbreak over Oklahoma, the center of the tornado universe. In fact, the scientists at the National Weather Center, home to a combination of the Storm Prediction Center, NWS-Oklahoma City office, and a meteorological research campus of the University of Oklahoma saw a tornado out their window. They self reported! Unfortunately, this marks the second deadly outbreak of the year after last month's twister that cut across Mississippi. 5 are dead and many more are injured in Oklahoma, most in Norman, just south of Oklahoma City where the NWC is located.
The images from this storm are incredible. We will look at some radar stills next week, when we don't have forecasts scheduled every day. Speaking of forecasts, this is technically a verification post, which is why Nebraska was mentioned. Omaha was on the northern end of the system, and they mercifully only saw rain out of it. Temperatures were kept cool by persistent wind, and clouds. The rain didn't start until Monday, which didn't give Victoria-Weather the victory, it merely increased the margin of victory.
Actuals: Sunday - High 62, Low 38
Monday - .59 inches of rain, High 54, Low 48
Grade: B
Omaha, Nebraska to Port St. Lucie, Florida
Posted by Anthony
A 1552-mile trip from a land-locked state to the one with the 2nd most coastline in the country. Away we go!
DAY ONE
Well, it's going to be a VERY interesting start to this trip. An area of low pressure is deepening and shifting into the Central Plains as Monday gets underway. Strong southerly flow out ahead of it combined with the increased pressure gradient will make for some very gusty southeast winds, to the tune of 30-40mph at times. And as if that wasn't bad enough, a good swath of rain will push through Omaha during the morning hours. It'll be a bit of slow going to start off the day as we push through the rain and the wind, but the most fun we'll have during the day is outrunning the severe storms that are expected to develop over KS and OK before pushing eastward into MO. While we should be well ahead of the worst of the severe weather, there is still a decent chance of some strong thunderstorms out ahead of this activity during the afternoon hours as we push our way through central MO past St. Louis during the early evening hours. Better hope the windshield wipers are new, because they're going to get a workout all the way to Mt. Vernon, our end to this rather ugly weather day. Or picturesque if you're a family of storm chasers!
DAY TWO
Low pressure will have shifted towards the IA/MO border by the morning, with heavy rains shifting through central IL ahead of the frontal boundary. As we start our day heading towards southern IL and ultimately towards Nashville, it'll be a slow beginning as the heavy rain and some thunderstorms shift through our path. Luckily, this won't be too long lived as the front looks to shift off to the northeast by the late morning hours. We're still going to be in the warm sector of these systems however, so with a good amount of instability in the region, scattered showers and storms will dot the TN Valley as we cruise through Nashville towards Chattanooga. Hopefully Nashville escapes these storms, as they're still dealing with the devastating flooding that hit there last week. Storms should be on the downturn towards the evening hours, especially as we make our way past Atlanta and pull into Macon, the stop for Day Two.
DAY THREE
Finally! After two days of rather interesting weather, high pressure is controlling much of Florida and the Gulf Coast during midweek with a general east to west flow occurring over the state. There could be a couple of popcorn or seabreeze thundershowers over the central part of the FL Peninsula as we drive past Gainesville and Orlando during the afternoon and evening hours. A beautiful sunset should greet us upon our arrival into Port St. Lucie. With a couple extra days of good weather expected over the region, should be a great vacation for everybody along the sands of the Atlantic Ocean!
